new gtlds Rick Schwarz Predicts A "Collapse" Coming (ngTLD's)

[Silentptnr]

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

 

[Silentptnr]

I will say this and I mean no disrespect...I would rather speculate on a new gTLD domain name than pay some amount for an appraisal of a .com. Meaining, I actually agreed with Rick regarding this... http://www.ricksblog.com/2008/02/valuation-is-in/#.WTcRO2jyu00

 

[MackieMesser]

I'm as likely to allow that as I am to buy a self-driving car.

You could get drunk on a self-driving car or sleep, a clear reason to buy one (when the technology is really that sophisticated, so still some years to go). hehehe

 

[bloggydreams]

new gtlds can still work. The owners just have to be patient. People continue to talk about .xyz giving away domain names for free but domains were free for about 10 years. Twitter is free, facebook is free. It will just take time. The only problem is that they owners of the new gtlds may not have the time.

 

[Casey L]

you can't collapse unless you're actually built up in the first place...these ntlds are floating in the sky with no real value underneath

 

[MapleDots]

new gtlds can still work. The owners just have to be patient. People continue to talk about .xyz giving away domain names for free but domains were free for about 10 years. Twitter is free, facebook is free. It will just take time. The only problem is that they owners of the new gtlds may not have the time.

There is no real time for domains, they too will disappear over the next 10 years or so. In fact it might happen a lot sooner and all domainers will be out of business.

With Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple... just say

OK Google (or similar) go to cnn
No .com, no .net... nada, zilch, zip, doda

Does not matter if a domain is just an ip address.
Even in y car, I just hook up my pixel phone and it knows where I am going in a flash. I go to costco every Sunday morning. I plug in my phone and it is already mapping me.

Wow, Wow, Wow

Does any domainer have the luxury of time anymore?

 

[ResoluteDomains]

Show attachment 60612

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

I agree with what Rick says.....

 

[Silentptnr]

Wow! 60% of domainers that voted agree that "Collapse" is coming! I'm a bit surprised. Just a bit.

 

[JudgeMind]

So, what happens when this crash of gtld's comes and the registries fold? The owners of the extensions who rely on them as their web address will scramble to get a .com..

Imo the majority of gtlds that are registered are registered by domainers.. if they can't sell them, they won't renew them and the small percentage of websites that are built on these extensions won't be enough renewal fees to keep the registries going.. unless they increase the renewal pricing substantially.

GTLD apocalypse now lol

 

[Lox]

the registries fold

The Registry can trigger the ICANN's Fee Reduction Waiver and the story continue ...

 

[Want2learn]

I just love the "wet eared domainer" comment. What's that about?

new
young
naive

 

[Ategy]

Sigh .. you guys are seriously overthinking this .. all it means is the collapse in VOLUME of .xyz on the anniversary of the 1 cent sale.

It seriously is no big deal at all .. totally to be expected as the cost per domain goes from 1 cent up to 88 cents.

If you look at it realistically .. even if 5 million domains drop that equals $50,000 ... while at the same time more than TEN TIMES that dollar value drop in .com EVERY SINGLE DAY!

It's ridiculous to place all ngTLD's in the same category.

The only thing 5 million drops says about ngTLD's is that those domains never should have been bought in the first place .. lol .. and at $50,000 total value .. it's absurd to think this has any significance either way on the value of anything!

Now go search for one of my million posts on the subject .. I'm getting really tired of repeating myself .. lol

I'm relatively new .. but I'm getting reeeeaaaally tired of the all or nothing debates on every aspect of the new gTLD's .. seriously .. there are so many factors and shades of grey that everybody conveniently leaves out to justify their point of view.

Yes they can be some great use of them ..
.. but (IMO) yes most domainers don't seem to understand what works and what doesn't

Yes most of them are garbage ..
.. but yes some of them do have their rightful place on the Internet and are useful

Yes there was a good argument to add new TLD's
.. but yes they added too many and they were also implemented quite sloppily.

If you're buying 10 cent domains then unless you go there in the first 3 minutes it's very likely not worth it ..
.. if you're buying premiums that cost $1000's per year then it's also likely not worth it ..
.. if you find a cool span.thedot domain for $10-20 per year with an initial acquisition cost a fraction the cost of the equivalent .com then there's a chance you could be doing it right and might make a little $$ in the long term.

At the end of the day there are some fantastic nTLD domains ..
.. but most of them are garbage (seems I already said that .. lol)

So yes .. there are aspects of them that are inovative ...
.. and yes .. there are some aspects of them that are not!


ANYBODY who blanket judges and chooses one side or the other is missing out both potential losses and on potential opportunity.

Yes ... and ... Yes

https://www.namepros.com/threads/fr...ric-sale-at-uniregistry.1021867/#post-6181750

https://www.namepros.com/threads/xy...be-used-on-the-internet.1017498/#post-6144881

https://www.namepros.com/threads/it...st-4-months-in-newgtlds.1017568/#post-6144542

 

[Lox]

new
young
naive

Student

 

[jmcc]

has anybody studied the real data?

Yes.

I am working on something right now that will speak for itself as far as ranked websites in the top 1/2 million.

Alexa is rubbish as a metric.

Regards...jmcc

 

[offthehandle]

Yes.

Alexa is rubbish as a metric.

Regards...jmcc

Quantcast, what is your experience with them?

 

[jmcc]

Quantcast, what is your experience with them?

The top sites in any TLD do not matter. It is the volume and rate of development of small sites. Quantcast, from memory, relies on Adwords and beacons. If a site doesn't have Adsense or a Quantcast analytics beacon, it may be invisible.

Very few people in the industry have a clue about usage and development metrics.

Regards...jmcc

 

[jmcc]

Wow! 60% of domainers that voted agree that "Collapse" is coming! I'm a bit surprised. Just a bit.

Yep but how many of them realise that about 2.5 million .COM domains drop every month? Most of the attention from domainers is focused on the upcoming .XYZ drops and that's going to be in the region of 3 million domains just for June 2016 registrations. It will be an exceptional period for XYZ but most of the larger new gTLDs are locked into a boom and bust cycle and have been so ever since the registries decided to use discounting to build registration volume. For all the talk of .COM, it went negative a few times in the last eight months but few seemed to notice.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Silentptnr]

Yep but how many of them realise that about 2.5 million .COM domains drop every month? Most of the attention from domainers is focused on the upcoming .XYZ drops and that's going to be in the region of 3 million domains just for June 2016 registrations. It will be an exceptional period for XYZ but most of the larger new gTLDs are locked into a boom and bust cycle and have been so ever since the registries decided to use discounting to build registration volume. For all the talk of .COM, it went negative a few times in the last eight months but few seemed to notice.

Regards...jmcc

Yes, I look at those numbers.

 

[Silentptnr]

What's interesting to me is that no one seems to know why they feel there is a collapse.

I know there are ups and downs, but I also know how much money is at stake.

Not sure why some extensions get such bad feedback. I know some are relatively new, but who's to say they will completely fail?

And even if they did fail, it doesn't mean people are stupid for investing in something they knew was a long shot but could be profitable.

I have won and I have lost. Doesn't mean I shouldn't have played the game.

What's cool and hip today might be tomorrow. I do believe in the saying "Hope for the best but plan for the worst" but this is investing folks!

 

[jmcc]

Yes, I look at those numbers.

The .COM is still very robust as it has the momentum of large numbers. Some of the new gTLDs actually have higher renewal rates than .COM on one year registrations. The problem is that new gTLDs get grouped as a single set so people only see the major trends and don't see what is happening in some of the smaller new gTLDs that are seeing some development and usage. The heavy discounting by the largest new gTLDs has doen the whole new gTLD programme no favours and has destroyed some of its credibility. However, applying .COM keyword strategies to some of the new gTLDs is not a good one because many of these new gTLDs are actually domain hacks. The churn on some of the new gTLDs is very high but a lot of that is down to discounted registrations, zone stuffing and robot registrations.

Regards...jmcc

 

[jmcc]

What's interesting to me is that no one seems to know why they feel there is a collapse.

Because analysis is difficult. People see simple zone counts and think that pending renewal/delete or zonefile size give the whole picture. Hundreds of millions of domain names have been registered and deleted over the years (I've over 500M in the databases) but domain counts are essentially a cross section of a large river at a particular point in time. The 1c promotion from XYZ is going to have a very poor renewal rate and since this is forming the bulk of the registrations that will be dropped in the next three months, it looks like XYZ is collapsing rather than just going through the normal bust that follows a boom.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Want2learn]

So let me get this straight. There are a whole lot of new extensions that come to the marketplace to compete with dot com essentially. Some of those domains will become premium while most of those domains in the new extensions will fail. Take sex.com and sex.xxx or sex.xyz One domain is old and two are newish. As a business owner all three sex domains are inherently equal I think. I think dot xxx is actually better. But dot com is more valuable. But why? Consumer confidence and business development and experiences with dot com perhaps?


Now my question! If dot xxx and dot xyz start to falter and want to pack it in, what happens to sex.xxx? If dot xxx is faltering does that mean that sex.xxx falters also? Bc if it does, why would I as an end user go buy sex dot xxx only to see it falter with the rest of dot xxx? And now I'd be out of the money for dot xxx. Why not just go buy a dot com?

 

[TopShelf Domains]

Me too!

Show attachment 60644

For some reason it looks more funny when he censors the sh*t

 

[Silentptnr]

So let me get this straight. There are a whole lot of new extensions that come to the marketplace to compete with dot com essentially. Some of those domains will become premium while most of those domains in the new extensions will fail. Take sex.com and sex.xxx or sex.xyz One domain is old and two are newish. As a business owner all three sex domains are inherently equal I think. I think dot xxx is actually better. But dot com is more valuable. But why? Consumer confidence and business development and experiences with dot com perhaps?


Now my question! If dot xxx and dot xyz start to falter and want to pack it in, what happens to sex.xxx? If dot xxx is faltering does that mean that sex.xxx falters also? Bc if it does, why would I as an end user go buy sex dot xxx only to see it falter with the rest of dot xxx? And now I'd be out of the money for dot xxx. Why not just go buy a dot com?

There are some consumer safeguards I believe.

 

[Ategy]

So let me get this straight. There are a whole lot of new extensions that come to the marketplace to compete with dot com essentially. Some of those domains will become premium while most of those domains in the new extensions will fail. Take sex.com and sex.xxx or sex.xyz One domain is old and two are newish. As a business owner all three sex domains are inherently equal I think. I think dot xxx is actually better. But dot com is more valuable. But why? Consumer confidence and business development and experiences with dot com perhaps?

Quite simply for the reasons you said plus traffic bleed. I have the .org of my first name and sometimes I enter the email as .com when entering forms .. lol

Also analogue advertising relies on memorability .. and while you advertise sex.xxx .. 48 hours after being exposed to your ad the potential client will go visit sex.com. That's the very concept the ngTLD's are fighting. It's a shame ICANN hasn't put any of the millions collected from the auctions into a public awareness campaign (but that's another subject .. lol). This WILL change .. in time .. but .com is still the default.

Now my question! If dot xxx and dot xyz start to falter and want to pack it in, what happens to sex.xxx? If dot xxx is faltering does that mean that sex.xxx falters also? Bc if it does, why would I as an end user go buy sex dot xxx only to see it falter with the rest of dot xxx? And now I'd be out of the money for dot xxx. Why not just go buy a dot com?

This has happened previously with a few 3rd level domains ... (example.com.com is an example of what those look like).

Google or NP search "Sunset" .. you'll see a few actual examples of domain levels closing their doors.

Long story short .. yes .. the domains cease to exist .. bye bye any money invested.


So while I feel and have repeated many times that total numbers of domains a ngTLD has is completely irrelevant to the valuation of a domain .. that obviously does not include the risk you have of a TLD going bankrupt (Sunsetting) .. for that the actual numbers do matter to validate whether the business is solid or at risk.

 

[Want2learn]

So if dot xxx starts to really collapse, registered domains are safe?

If that is the case than why not try to register/acquire as many good premium domains as you can?

It is a funny cycle though. It is very self serving to not want 1000s of new extensions. If I own love dot com the only thing that truly could rival it is another love and new extension. Perhaps love.love could rival love dot com. Maybe love dot sex would rival love dot com. Now how does love dot sky really compare to love dot com?