What will be the biggest flop in '08?

[jacal1]

By the way, this IS an "official" thread - in case you were wondering :hehe: .

My guesses for biggest flops:

dictionary words with no commercial connection

.us

.tv

"brandable" nonsense words

LLLLs in anything but .com

all but the 4-5 biggest silent auctions (or was that '07?)

.biz (or was that '06?)

 

[-REECE-]

As Jeff has often said, the key is development. I have plans to develop the large majority of .mobis I renew this year.

Even if Namepros used Namepros.cc (I don't know... Cellular Communication?) for the mobile site, I'd still use it on my pda and I'm sure everyone else that uses namepros.mobi would too...

The extension doesn't matter much for developed, well promoted sites. It's just those paying X,XXX+ (or hand regging junk today) for traffic-free .mobis that really need worry.

:bingo:

PS. Have you fellas been to mobile.quote.com yet? It's a GREAT mobile .COM site! :tu: :imho:

-Jeff

 

[Jeff]

Back to reality ...

A big flop of 2008 - Jeff's negative .mobi ragging!!! (oh yeah, that was in 2007 too!)

No, the BiG .MOBI Flop™ (at mandated 6-month "development requirements" for previously auctioned premium .MOBI domains) is coming on April Fool's Day '08, IMHO.

The extension doesn't matter much for developed, well promoted sites. It's just those paying X,XXX+ (or hand regging junk today) for traffic-free .mobis that really need worry.

That's definitely worrisome, and a great point (development / "ecosystem" -and- promotions) Mr. Reece! :gl: :tu:
Rep. added.

Peace and Happy New Year! :santa:
-Jeff

 

[Andrei P.]

To clarify my thoughts about .mobi. I don't think they are bad. They are very good. At least I think not much worse than .biz

 

[newdomainer.mobi]

Mobile web: You heard it here first!

To clarify my thoughts about .mobi. I don't think they are bad. They are very good. At least I think not much worse than .biz

Hi Ergo

I think the important thing to note is that no one actually knows the answer when it comes to the mobile web.

I think most people accept that whichever side of the fence they are on... however, it does seem that those who believe that it is doomed always refer to existing, established websites (usually .coms) that have an established presence & they assume that users will either type .com into their PDA etc.. & get the auto detect version of the site, (this assumes that this is what the PDA user wants which removes the element of choice: a major consideration in itself)

The doom-mongers also assume that users are somehow more likely to be aware that they should key in m.site.com or mobile.site.com site.com/mobile than they would be to use site.mobi....
This is an oversight, especially as mobile devices are now coming onstream that require no extension to be used for .mobi sites.

The other assumption is that there will not be a 'cover-all' attitude by site owners who will wish to capture as much of their target audience as possible; by allowing access on all the available routes such as like Fox have done... any route you like; you get there.

Then there is a blind assumption that the mobile web is just 'desktop web' viewed on a small screen device... this to me is the most ridiculous assumption of them all.... large sites = big data volume = slow loading = visual overload = messy = complex = NON user friendly experience.

The mobile web will develop as a close relation of the desk-top web but it will not be the same.... some sites suit desk-tops & just desk tops... I wouldn't want to try & use an autocad programme on my phone for example.... or spreadsheets come to that!

For social uses, video, audio, contacts, GPS, maps, locations, reviews, food, quick reference, impulse buys, last minute info, gifts, traffic, games, etc. etc. etc. there will be a new breed of web site....

The only extension that will ever guarentee a suitable site for a small screen device is .mobi.... all the other extensions will be hit & miss; not every site will have auto-detect, not every site will render well - even with the appropriate software; especially older sites, complex sites etc..

Using m.site.com just gets you to a site that may or may not be suitable for mobile (by that I mean that if you choose 100 random .com addresses & stick an m. in front of it - how many sites resolve as mobile sites & how many servers return no results? - In other words; in order to use m.site.com etc. you need to be aware that the site has a mobile site available, whereas any address that has a.mobi is a site that you can be assured of getting to render on your small screen.

Add to that the fact that this will become more apparent to end users after a period of time; more & more people will start to key in site.mobi in the expectation of seeing a mobile site... when that happens, site owners will not want to lose this traffic & they will need to register / buy the .mobi domain in order to do so, even if they redirect to an m.site.com address.

Then it gets serious; .mobi's become as much a part of the mobile web as .coms are on the desk top.... m.site.com & mobile.site.com will become to the mobile web what the .net / .org / .info is to the desktop web today... the same of country codes; there is a realistic chance that country code mobiles will be released in the next 5 years; so site owners of .co.uk may end up with .uk.mobi or .mobi.uk or .m.uk who knows, but what is for sure is that the original extension (.mobi) will be the .com of the mobile web.... if you have the .com, the logical thing will be to have the .mobi to go with it or the competition will beat you to it.... defensive it may be but its nothing we haven't seen time & time again with every other extension...

In my (humble) opinion I think that the need to have the .mobi will be secondary to your main domain & be ahead of the list of other domains you will need to serve your client base & to protect your market... the only one that comes close is the country code for where you happen to be.

Lets just read this sentence a few times until it sinks in:

"4 devices with small screen web access sold to every large screen web access device sold"

..... that figure is growing; it'll be 5 to 1 before long.....
How long does it take for people to drop their preconceptions and look at the figures?

Of course, all the techies are protective of the internet just the way it was in 2006.... they don't like change!
Forward thinking people accept change, learn the new technologies & embrace the next big thing...

It's not lost on me that most techies that I know (& respect for their knowledge & skills) are still wearing clothes & sporting hair-styles that went out in the late 1980's.... maybe thats a clue as to how long it takes them to get 'with it' :hehe:

And finally; the other mistake the doomsayers keep making is that they forget that sites are built every day, businesses are set up every day, domains are developed every day.... in time, there will be many sites that don't have a desk-top presence; they will be site.mobi & thats it... no need for anything else, it's taken a long time to populate the internet (& 75% of that is utter crap).
The mobile internet will be populated in half the time (my guess) just remember that nothing stands still, nothing stays the same for long.... the 'mass' internet itself is barely a generation old... it's just a toddler itself... & now it has a baby brother!

Nice Flares by the way Jeff! but the pony tail has to go... :hehe:


Regards to all for 2008

Gary

 

[Andrei P.]

The main problem to mobi is that majooooooority of companies even don't have, never intended and do not plan to have mobile versions of sites. So potential end users for mobi domains is about 1000-10000 times less than for .coms and I strongly believe that even 2-10 times less than for .biz domains that are considered as worst. And among those very small number of potential end users only few will decide to "BUY NOW AT END-USER PRICE OF $XXXX" instead of free and still not bad free decision to place their sites at m.site.com. E.g. I think that imaginary GLM.biz has more chances to find end-user than GLM.mobi because if in 10 years there will be 10 companies with GLM acronym they will try to buy GLM.com, GLM.net, GLM.org, GLM.info, G-L-M.com, G-LM.com, GL-M.com GLMonline.com etc... But what's the reason for them to have GLM.mobi if their business are Tractors, Boats, Agriculture, Dung or whatever else.

mobi is good only when name is connected with mobile world

 

[hawkeye]

The main problem to mobi is that majooooooority of companies even don't have, never intended and do not plan to have mobile versions of sites.

Whatever one's opinion about .mobi, this is a 'very naive' statement!!!

So potential end users for mobi domains is about 1000 times less than for .coms and I strongly believe that 2-10 times less than for .biz domains. And among those very small number of potential end users only few will decide to "BUY NOW AT END-USER PRICE OF $XXXX" instead of free and still not bad free decision to place their sites at m.site.com

:o ..??? whatever!!

 

[Kate]

The main problem to mobi is that majooooooority of companies even don't have, never intended and do not plan to have mobile versions of sites.

That's true. A lot of companies do not care, nor do they care about translating in other languages or having accessible web sites.

 

[tbh]

"4 devices with small screen web access sold to every large screen web access device sold"

..... that figure is growing; it'll be 5 to 1 before long.....
How long does it take for people to drop their preconceptions and look at the figures?

I'm not pro or anti mobi, but you have to look at this statistic and realize what it means. First of all, it includes small-screen devices that don't have browsers (like the tom-tom, other gps systems, psp's that only work when wireless internet is near, etc.) Second of all, not all mobile users actually use the internet. It is expensive (for me, at least) and kind of annoying. There's only 2 or 3 phones that are internet-capable that actually look decent for surfing.

Even though huge number of mobile phones can access the internet, apart from Japan and Korea, only 10% of their users actually use these handsets to go online. (BBC.CO.UK)

Hopefully the # will increase with more developed mobi sites .. but you should keep in mind that most people buy phones to talk on them, not surf.

 

[Alan Glennon]

This doesn't have anything to do with .mobi...
Times are changing rapidly. People complain when a phone is too complicated, but they complain more when it's just a phone. In the near future, you will have internet on your phone whether you like it or not -- just like SMS. If you use it, you will be charged; if not, you won't. My mobile device (which happens to have a phone on it), looks great. Later this year, I'll probably use an Android capable device to communicate via voip (and not even bother paying a phone company).

There's only 2 or 3 phones that are internet-capable that actually look decent for surfing.
...
.. but you should keep in mind that most people buy phones to talk on them, not surf.

 

[sparkplug]

...and another topic bites the dust courtesy of a .mobi digression.

 

[hawkeye]

Hopefully the # will increase with more developed mobi sites .. but you should keep in mind that most people buy phones to talk on them, not surf.

When wireless phones came out, they were big, and expensive to own and talk on them, and then sizes got smaller, and prices went down and down and...., and now children have one. When wireless phones came out people only talked on them, and then texting and emailing on them came about more and more and..., they bought into and used that/those features massively. To think that the way things used to be, or are now, is the way things will be..., ohhh, one misses so much opportunity yet to come.

So, what does everyone think about using your cellphone as a credit card. Think it'll go over with people, or be a flop??

 

[akcampbell]

"Any big company should have autodetection of mobile devices and redirect visitors to a proper page"

Please can a .mobi fan respond to this point made by Ergo. This seems the most likely scenario to me. .Mobi has got a future as an alternative extension for suitable keywords but the .mobi mobile web is a pipe dream used by rampers to offload their mobis to gullible domainers.

.Mobi is an excellent anternative extension for things people are likely to do on the go, listen to music, play games, download ringtones etc and that's been reflected in sale prices.

I can see myself using the Web on my mobile as often as I watch a DVD on my portable DVD player, very rarely. I don't like to spoil a good film by watching it on a small screen because it ruins the experience. Equally, I'd rather wait until I get home to use the Internet for most purposes on a 23 inch screen, full size keyboard, with lightning fast broadband, sitting in a comfy chair.

I think laptop Internet use will become far more popular as wireless connection speeds, battery life, and bootup speeds improve and you don't need a .mobi extension to do that.

I'm a big fan of alternative extensions, they provide single word memorable brands that you can only dream about in .com and that's attractive to some developers. However, betting that people will switch from .com to .mobi when they use mobile devices is lunacy. People are more likely, not less likely, to stick with what they know when connecting to the Internet through a less familiar medium.

 

[AdoptableDomains]

i hear this one all the time :hehe:
you know the registry made sure www. doesn't need to be typed for mobi.
saving keystrokes, time etc. ... so thats 4 keystrokes it just saved :sold:
there are arguments for and against, this really isn't one :imho:

Until .mobi becomes the default over .com on all mobile service providers (if it has, I haven't seen it yet), then www is not the problem... ".mobi" is. on my phone keypad (not QWERTY), to type .mobi takes entering 10 keystrokes "1 6 666 22 444".

Wow, to get "namepros.mobi" I only have to enter:

"66 2 6 33 7 777 666 7777 1 6 666 22 444"

For mobile phones without a querty keyboard, it would be easier just to enter the IP number of 201.101.031.234 and bypass the DNS system altogether.

 

[nicedomains]

There are many such predictions out there on the Web, such as:

1. Top prices will drop;

2. Top portfolio owners to diversify away from domains, investing in other technologies;

3. IDN to gain more momentum. There’s a huge need for people to communicate in their own language;

4. 3 letter .com to hit 10k minimum value by the end of 2008;

5, 6, 7........

Aren't #'s 1 and 4 paradoxical? I think lll.coms will hit 10k min quicker than that.. You have to be kind of desperate to sell below that right now
:imho:

 

[whitebark]

On my phone I can just give the voice command - 'go to namepros' and i'm off and running... no need for keystrokes once it's set up.

I've been rather sceptical of .mobi as well and seeing this long after their release that they still get no traffic is not a good indicator going ahead. It's been some time since I've seen a mobi listed for sale with ANY traffic details - even the very good ones. Come on now - that's a bit obvious for those who want to look.

The non-corporate sites developed thus far are just bare bones one to five page websites much like the domainer favourite the minisite. These have little appeal to the wider audience outside our closed circle. The ability to get quality searchable content on them while meeting the coding restrictions is detrimental to getting decent search-borne traffic - another negative aspect.

That doesn't mean mobi is going to belly-up and disappear, but expect prices to come back to earth more in line with their real value.

 

[Pred]

Until .mobi becomes the default over .com on all mobile service providers (if it has, I haven't seen it yet), then www is not the problem... ".mobi" is. on my phone keypad (not QWERTY), to type .mobi takes entering 10 keystrokes "1 6 666 22 444".
Wow, to get "namepros.mobi" I only have to enter:

"66 2 6 33 7 777 666 7777 1 6 666 22 444"

i don't think it will. it's not a battle of .com and mobi
this tires me too
its an extension in its own right, guarantees you get to view a website, quickly, with minimum fuss

people said the same about texting without qwerty
how do you think that's faired?
take a message and break it down into numbers nad keystrokes, the average teen will text in the blink of an eye

an extra letter, like in .info really is no issue
bookmark if its that big a deal or if a good site worth revisiting

For mobile phones without a querty keyboard, it would be easier just to enter the IP number of 201.101.031.234 and bypass the DNS system altogether.

:hehe:

brandability and memorability not great though
that's where mobi steps up

would 'mob' have been better?
but then i guess we would get all the al capone jokes and people wouldn't relate it to 'mobile'

oh well. we all see things differently :sold:

 

[hawkeye]

..For mobile phones without a querty keyboard, it would be easier just to enter the IP number of 201.101.031.234 and bypass the DNS system altogether.

Easier to type, but highly doubtful anyone would know where it went, let alone could remember it!

 

[john_karr]

TV & Mobi

 

[newdomainer.mobi]

As Homer Simpson says.... Doh!

Easier to type, but highly doubtful anyone would know where it went, let alone could remember it!

Adaptable domains = someone else who has rather missed the point
(no offence meant but Hawkeye is right.... I can't see the marketing guys coming up with a memorable tag line for an IP address



And another one;

"I am so glad that I followed my own judgement over the past 18 months"

I really am pleased that I am able to write the above (in bold), the reasons why .mobi won't work are growing weaker & weaker all the time.... I am sooo glad that I followed my own judgement.

If I had a tractor factory; I'd have a simple mobile site.... some nice pictures of my latest models, a few spec details... an email address, a 'click to phone' link & a link to my main web-site...

Your argument is so poor & niaive to argue that companies won't bother with mobile web... that comment will be up there with the record guys comments some time back when he told why he turned down the opportunity to sign the beatles

Further to your comments Ergo; if I were a farmer - how much time would I spend in the office & how much time out & about? What would be the best way to market to a farmer? .... via his phone? Nah! That would be silly wouldn't it??

I mean, a farmer wouldn't find it useful to visit a suppliers mobile site to order fertiliser at short notice or order more cattle feed, fuel... or even to check the price of beef at the markets so he can decide whether to book the abbatoir next week or wait another week... in fact the list of companies that you use to illustrate why it's no good are perfect to argue to the contrary... to the last one!

You know, the more I think about it, the less uses I can think of for the mobile web :hehe:

The main problem to mobi is that majooooooority of companies even don't have, never intended and do not plan to have mobile versions of sites. So potential end users for mobi domains is about 1000-10000 times less than for .coms and I strongly believe that even 2-10 times less than for .biz domains that are considered as worst. And among those very small number of potential end users only few will decide to "BUY NOW AT END-USER PRICE OF $XXXX" instead of free and still not bad free decision to place their sites at m.site.com. E.g. I think that imaginary GLM.biz has more chances to find end-user than GLM.mobi because if in 10 years there will be 10 companies with GLM acronym they will try to buy GLM.com, GLM.net, GLM.org, GLM.info, G-L-M.com, G-LM.com, GL-M.com GLMonline.com etc... But what's the reason for them to have GLM.mobi if their business are Tractors, Boats, Agriculture, Dung or whatever else.

mobi is good only when name is connected with mobile world

 

[onewordonly]

I have full broadband on my PDA but I don't use it much because it is slow and the pages don't look that good even in landscape which reminds me I have to develop a mobile version of my site soon. There are of course compatible sites around if I searched. But I do definitely think there is a future in .mobi but it is going to take a bit more time (maybe another 5-7 years ) before it is used a lot.

I'm wondering if .travel will be a big flop or become a good investment?

it all comes down to figures, you could hold on to a .mobi domain at $10 per year say but take 7 years before you get $70 for it or the same with .travel, register/renew at $100 for 7 years and sell it for $700, no profit in that!

 

[newdomainer.mobi]

And another one:

I'm not pro or anti mobi, but you have to look at this statistic and realize what it means. First of all, it includes small-screen devices that don't have browsers (like the tom-tom, other gps systems, psp's that only work when wireless internet is near, etc.) Second of all, not all mobile users actually use the internet. It is expensive (for me, at least) and kind of annoying. There's only 2 or 3 phones that are internet-capable that actually look decent for surfing.



Hopefully the # will increase with more developed mobi sites .. but you should keep in mind that most people buy phones to talk on them, not surf.

I absolutely agree with your sentiments & caution... indeed I wouldn't want anyone to rush off & pile into .mobi without due diligence but I will say one thing.... I had a mobile phone in 1990
It was a brick!
It was so expensive I couldn't bear to use it...
Then there was this text / SMS business... whatever the f*** that was!

Do you know, I was a techphobe... I'm still not a gadget man but I spend over 1000 minutes a month on my mobile phone, I send around 400 texts every month, sometimes a lot more... my point being that in 1990 I wouldn't have seen myself making use of these facilities, I was one of those people that got frustrated with the new phones as they came out... all fiddly & too many functions; I wanted to talk God dammit!!!

I was also a tree surgeon back then... I climbed trees all day & waved a chainsaw around like it was grafted onto my wrist...
Now I use all the features I once hated, I can type faster than ever, I' a business man rather than a contractor, I keep my hands clean (most of the time) & I have two kids whom I love more than I could possibly have imagined (I never wanted kids until I had them)...

So, resistance is futile... the mobile web will happen; its far too useful for it not to... many will refuse to participate, many web site owners will buck the trend until they realise that they are losing out to the competition.

Wake up guys, you can choose to be a leader or a follower... but make no mistake you will get on this particular train sooner or later.

(all IMHO of course...)

 

[harkster]

Name Jet. With ethics and business practices somewhere below the Payday Loan / Car Title loan rackets.

 

[Keith]

On my phone I can just give the voice command - 'go to namepros' and i'm off and running... no need for keystrokes once it's set up.

I've been rather sceptical of .mobi as well and seeing this long after their release that they still get no traffic is not a good indicator going ahead. It's been some time since I've seen a mobi listed for sale with ANY traffic details - even the very good ones. Come on now - that's a bit obvious for those who want to look.

The non-corporate sites developed thus far are just bare bones one to five page websites much like the domainer favourite the minisite. These have little appeal to the wider audience outside our closed circle. The ability to get quality searchable content on them while meeting the coding restrictions is detrimental to getting decent search-borne traffic - another negative aspect.

That doesn't mean mobi is going to belly-up and disappear, but expect prices to come back to earth more in line with their real value.

I feel that less content is ok. When surfing on-the-go, you need info quickly and do not need endless pages of odds and ends. That's why mobi is going to be great. Quick loading, easy to view pages that render exactly what the user needs and no more. It is supposed to be easy to use and straight forward which is why I don't feel .coms on a mobile is the right way to go. Too much content in most cases. Mobi is about delivering the goods ASAP in a clean, clear cut manner!

For those saying mobi will flop in 08', I have to laugh . The next 2-3 years are going to change your views and investments when it comes to the mobile web. At some point, you have to stop and think about how fast technology changes and get on the mobi bus

 

[Jeff]

For those saying mobi will flop in 08', I have to laugh . The next 2-3 years are going to change your views and investments when it comes to the mobile web. At some point, you have to stop and think about how fast technology changes and get on the mobi bus

.MOBI Folks™ were quoting the success of .MOBI in 2 - 3 years time OVER one year ago ... and that's IF the .MOBI were to eventually succeed in having a developed "ecosystem" and full support from its supposed "backers" -- obviously this is NOT - on either count - the case here in 2008, IMHO. :o :red:

I'm on the Mobile Web bus, but fail to see - given the emerging mobile web technologies - how this equates with growth or success of the .MOBI extension, IMHO. I know more folks will finally come to see the light on this matter ... by April '08! :yell:

Happy New Year! :santa:
-Jeff

 

[kev]

Flops for '08

.mobi
.asia
.cc

:imho: