discuss Alarming Situation for 4L Domains

[Shams]

I don't know what's wrong. I cannot explain at this moment, but clearly something isn't right. All 4L .org Chips are gone. money investing in so many directions. which seems to be end soon and the market will collapse.Before we were all investing in 4L .com Premium, Non-premium, Chips etc Doesn't matter but now we are investing in 4L .com, .net, .org, Chips, gTLDS. one thing is clear when money investing in so many directions on the same 4L domain criteria.First thing will happen liquidity of these domains. Which was that we can sell these domains anytime anywhere to anyone immediately but now when the buyer has an option in .org and.net too.the sale out at huge profit will be little difficult.There are very rare chances of the liquidity will remain for 4L domains.

What is your opinion.?

 

[domeen]

I told already with .com that there is not enough end-user demand for them.
Noone belives me, and says its nice to flip them between each other. Value only goes up.

Now, I can undersand maybe .com, there you maye have some % selling it.
But .net, .org, etc.. are already total madness. Nooone outside the system will buy them.

China bubbles can last for long time, so will see where it ends. But it will end..

It will be all nice, until the money goes out of the system. Some belive it will never go out, but thats a little silly

 

[GravityEleven]

which is why i only invest in .com's and only buy/reg the best patterns, not everything across the board.. but still i don't see any end in sight, in fact it has just geared up, guys..
this can take many years before there are any signs of collapse, lots of time and opportunities to make some nice money along the way

 

[Markith]

I don't know what's wrong. I cannot explain at this moment, but clearly something isn't right. All 4L .org Chips are gone. money investing in so many directions. which seems to be end soon and the market will collapse.Before we were all investing in 4L .com Premium, Non-premium, Chips etc Doesn't matter but now we are investing in 4L .com, .net, .org, Chips, gTLDS. one thing is clear when money investing in so many directions on the same 4L domain criteria.First thing will happen liquidity of these domains. Which was that we can sell these domains anytime anywhere to anyone immediately but now when the buyer has an option in .org and.net too.the sale out at huge profit will be little difficult.There are very rare chances of the liquidity will remain for 4L domains.

What is your opinion.?

I told already with .com that there is not enough end-user demand for them.
Noone belives me, and says its nice to flip them between each other. Value only goes up.

Now, I can undersand maybe .com, there you maye have some % selling it.
But .net, .org, etc.. are already total madness. Nooone outside the system will buy them.

China bubbles can last for long time, so will see where it ends. But it will end..

It will be all nice, until the money goes out of the system. Some belive it will never go out, but thats a little silly

You two are kidding right??? How do you come up with "money investing in so many directions. which seems to be end soon"??? There is a ton of money pouring into 4L .com, .net, .org. I hand registered two LLLL.orgs three days ago and sold each for $200.

If the history of the "domain" can tell us anything I can almost guarantee you there will not be a crash, maybe a correction but not a crash. These are rare/limited commodities and now the doors are open to China. 4L.coms were stagnant for a number of years but have never ever gone down.

The only thing I agree with that was written above is end-user demand. I don't think there will be or is a lot of end user demand. However, it isn't necessary when you have a limited number of domains and plenty of investors lining up. The Chinese have removed some money from their corrupt stock market and 4Ls act the same way as a stock, limited number of shares and prices fluctuate based on demand which is based on facts/earnings/press releases etc. Except there hasn't been any bad news or negative data about 4Ls.

I don't think there is a bubble at all, and it's global not just China. "It will be all nice, until the money goes out of the system", why would this happen?? Sure some goes in some goes out and more going in may slow down but what do you base this on? Why would it be silly to think that more $ would flow out of the market now or at any point since we've only seen growth. I agree the expansion has been rapid but the demand is there too.

Basically the markets have been opened up to an additional 1.4 Billion people, knowledge/interest of the domain market is growing at an alarming rate Will it end? Sure at some point but we may be at $10k 4L.coms by then and back to slow growth of a few % a year.....

 

[alcy]

You two are kidding right??? How do you come up with "money investing in so many directions. which seems to be end soon"??? There is a ton of money pouring into 4L .com, .net, .org. I hand registered two LLLL.orgs three days ago and sold each for $200.

If the history of the "domain" can tell us anything I can almost guarantee you there will not be a crash, maybe a correction but not a crash. These are rare/limited commodities and now the doors are open to China. 4L.coms were stagnant for a number of years but have never ever gone down.

The only thing I agree with that was written above is end-user demand. I don't think there will be or is a lot of end user demand. However, it isn't necessary when you have a limited number of domains and plenty of investors lining up. The Chinese have removed some money from their corrupt stock market and 4Ls act the same way as a stock, limited number of shares and prices fluctuate based on demand which is based on facts/earnings/press releases etc. Except there hasn't been any bad news or negative data about 4Ls.

I don't think there is a bubble at all, and it's global not just China. "It will be all nice, until the money goes out of the system", why would this happen?? Sure some goes in some goes out and more going in may slow down but what do you base this on? Why would it be silly to think that more $ would flow out of the market now or at any point since we've only seen growth. I agree the expansion has been rapid but the demand is there too.

Basically the markets have been opened up to an additional 1.4 Billion people, knowledge/interest of the domain market is growing at an alarming rate Will it end? Sure at some point but we may be at $10k 4L.coms by then and back to slow growth of a few % a year.....

i'd tend to agree with you

do you forsee this spilling onto 5l.com too or not?

 

[wwwweb]

i'd tend to agree with you

do you forsee this spilling onto 5l.com too or not?

As you are questioning it the 5L.com chips are being registered by the Chinese, and Western investors alike by the second.

A feat most never thoight would happen in a 5L.com chip buyout, is weeks away.

Probably the single biggest play based on percentage per dollar at reg fee that can be achieved today.

Or you can take your luck at a 4L.com at $3K each if you can get one

 

[ksusha64]

Here is why I think its madness.http://www.dnjournal.com/domainsales.htm. 4 N's.com going down to 10-20 k vs 5N's,6N,7N's going through the roof. CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN WHY?? This never makes sense when more premium domains are falling and handreg crap going up.

 

[Markith]

Here is why I think its madness.http://www.dnjournal.com/domainsales.htm. 4 N's.com going down to 10-20 k vs 5N's,6N,7N's going through the roof. CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN WHY?? This never makes sense when more premium domains are falling and handreg crap going up.

How do you figure 4N's have gone down? With numbers and in this case such a limited number of combinations, it all depends on the combo, how it reads etc. The last two sales I see are:
6817.com 47,500 USD 2015-11-11 GoDaddy
7076.com 25,000 USD 2015-11-08 GGRG

Realize there are many many many more domainers that can afford $150 vs $15k.

 

[pmax]

If anything, the events in the last few weeks defies everything we thought knew about domaining.
So we cannot apply conventional domaining knowledge on the Chinese dragon.
It would be wrong to write off something just because of a lack of understanding.
This could be a bubble or a tectonic plate shift.
I'll just grab my share and enjoy the ride.

 

[Jasonn]

do the chinese actually want to buy these domains from others or are they just interested in regging fresh domains? for all the tens of thousands of domains being bought there is never going to be enough buyers for them...

 

[wwwweb]

If anything, the events in the last few weeks defies everything we thought knew about domaining.
So we cannot apply conventional domaining knowledge on the Chinese dragon.
It would be wrong to write off something just because of a lack of understanding.
This could be a bubble or a tectonic plate shift.
I'll just grab my share and enjoy the ride.

We can't choose or obstruct to know who or what to every domain sale.

Days ago we saw llll.org chips sitting unregistered, today we see namepros with want ads for them, numerous auctions with bids, and a blanket of backorders on them.

In 1995 not many people thought you could buy a domain for $100, and achieve mid 7 figures for it in 2015.

 

[alcy]

As you are questioning it the 5L.com chips are being registered by the Chinese, and Western investors alike by the second.

A feat most never thoight would happen in a 5L.com chip buyout, is weeks away.

Probably the single biggest play based on percentage per dollar at reg fee that can be achieved today.

Or you can take your luck at a 4L.com at $3K each if you can get one

but that is precisely why I Asked the question. I did not ask or question if 5l are beinbg regged. I already know they are.

I was having conversation whether people who do so are stupid and followign herd trends and mentalitis. or whether they know things you and I do not.

or in short, just cause people are regging stuff does not make it valuable.

cheers

 

[wwwweb]

do the chinese actually want to buy these domains from others or are they just interested in regging fresh domains? for all the tens of thousands of domains being bought there is never going to be enough buyers for them...

Chinese do not think, nor live on NA standards.

They could go to sleep at night with $100 in their bank account, and it be worth $90 the next day because their government devalued their currency.

They are unable to travel as freely to other countries, or move money around with the freedom you enjoy.

They are searching out different weighted investment vehicles, and for such above reasons with the help of domain houses they choose such online investments as a hedge against some negative economic aspects they may face.

Look at 2L, and N .com, you have corporate buyers doing a headshake, the ones who would never sell, well they are selling now.

Then it is just basic food chain basics rich, middle, lower income who have their price points along 2,3,4,5 N/L .com

I don't understand it, but I understand why, it is far from concluding as demand still continues to outpace supply. If it didn't you would see prices going sudeways, which they aren't.

 

[Jasonn]

Chinese do not think, nor live on NA standards.

They could go to sleep at night with $100 in their bank account, and it be worth $90 the next day because their government devalued their currency.

They are unable to travel as freely to other countries, or move money around with the freedom you enjoy.

They are searching out different weighted investment vehicles, and for such above reasons with the help of domain houses they choose such online investments as a hedge against some negative economic aspects they may face.

Look at 2L, and N .com, you have corporate buyers doing a headshake, the ones who would never sell, well they are selling now.

Then it is just basic food chain basics rich, middle, lower income who have their price points along 2,3,4,5 N/L .com

I don't understand it, but I understand why, it is far from concluding as demand still continues to outpace supply. If it didn't you would see prices going sudeways, which they aren't.

well i am just concerned about the idea that they might prefer to just reg new domains rather than buy on the aftermarket. if that becomes more and more the case with not so premimum domains ie 6-12 numericals then people mass buying these with intentions of selling to the chinese could be in trouble.

 

[wwwweb]

but that is precisely why I Asked the question. I did not ask or question if 5l are beinbg regged. I already know they are.

I was having conversation whether people who do so are stupid and followign herd trends and mentalitis. or whether they know things you and I do not.

or in short, just cause people are regging stuff does not make it valuable.

cheers

More valuable would simply be equated to what they paid for it, and what they could sell it for today...

You can put that formula for 4L.com as 10 days ago you could buy them for 1K and sell them for $3K.

Unless you have been around the Chinese buying, or culture you do not understand how they can literally move mountains with buying power.

They can take cities where you have 100 year old houses, and create a price ceiling of over $1M
for an average home. Homes which can be had in Detroit for $40,000 cost $1M in Sydney, and Vancouver as Chinese like the climate, and political system.

Do you want to know what the profession on the majority of $3M plus houses being sold in those jurisdictions is today housewife, student, or business person.

 

[alcy]

More valuable would simply be equated to what they paid for it, and what they could sell it for today...

You can put that formula for 4L.com as 10 days ago you could buy them for 1K and sell them for $3K.

Heck I even bought one registered in 1994 for $1.5K last week, and have a $5K offer on it already.

Unless you have been around the Chinese buying, or culture you do not understand how they can literally move mountains with buying power.

They can take cities wheere you have 100 year old houses, and create a price ceiling of over $1M
for an average home. Homes which can be had in Detroit for $40,000 cost $1M in Sydney, and Vancouver as Chinese like the climate, and political system.

Do you want to know what the profession on the majority of $3M plus houses being sold in those jurisdictions is today housewife, student, or business person.

well said. hard to argue with that.

so now I have a dilema.. invest in a few 4l.com or in a crapload of 5l handregs lol

 

[wwwweb]

well said. hard to argue with that.

so now I have a dilema.. invest in a few 4l.com or in a crapload of 5l handregs lol

4L.com is a pricey entry point

Seems $2.5K ceiling, upside $3.5-$4.5k? If you can find western, and chip letters you can hedge your investment.


For 5L you are going to have to search, and dig for the best letter combos you can get, find a .com coupon your downside is $8, upside is TBD?

 

[Recons.Com]

You guys are adding up all the money required for all the buyouts, but you ignore the trickle down effect.
When money circulates, the total capital required is less.
People sell LL, buy LLL, sell those, buy LLLL, sell .com, buy .net, .org, .co etc. Most don't cash out yet.
So all that needed was just tens of millions of dollars, not even hundreds to get things heated up.
Chinese came up with ingenious way of making the whole segments commodities, inventing what is premium, what is not and everyone followed the lead. They proved that partial buyouts are fine. West believed for example that all 450K for LLLL has to be bought and held, Chinese came up with an idea how to exclude 2/3 of it and still have floors established. Once they were established, the remaining 2/3 started disappearing as well.
The same with digits. Just excluding 0 and 4 did the trick and suddenly 6N is not 1 mil, but only 1/4 of that and once that is gone and floor established, then 0 and 4 goes too.

 

[John_Spar]

Can anybody tell how many .org combinations are left????

 

[Recons.Com]

CPs - none
QuadPrems (minus CPs) 4400 out of 54960 or 8%. Couple thousands disappeared in 2-3 days.
Total: 140K out of 457K or 30%.

 

[John_Spar]

If a .org has 2 repeating letters and 1 V and 1 other letter,then is it a premium chinese or not?

 

[alcy]

mhmm.. its all interesting stuff... to see where it will lead.

maybe (and again) we missed the 4L.ccom as of today. happens all the time in domaining. maybe the time to buy was few months back.

as of today.. I am not sure any more. to begin now. hmm.

all being said and done, I wanted to ask: in short: what exactly is preventing the 4l.com category (and I mean any 4l.com) of achieving that same type of always in style always valuable status as say 3l.com did before? I know there is a rarity difference... which may be the reason why 5l.coms will never get that status.. well.. not for good many years at least.. but all in all... do you guys think its okay to see longer term 4l.com along same way as 3l.com investment wise?

 

[wwwweb]

You guys are adding up all the money required for all the buyouts, but you ignore the trickle down effect.
When money circulates, the total capital required is less.
People sell LL, buy LLL, sell those, buy LLLL, sell .com, buy .net, .org, .co etc. Most don't cash out yet.
So all that needed was just tens of millions of dollars, not even hundreds to get things heated up.
Chinese came up with ingenious way of making the whole segments commodities, inventing what is premium, what is not and everyone followed the lead. They proved that partial buyouts are fine. West believed for example that all 450K for LLLL has to be bought and held, Chinese came up with an idea how to exclude 2/3 of it and still have floors established. Once they were established, the remaining 2/3 started disappearing as well.
The same with digits. Just excluding 0 and 4 did the trick and suddenly 6N is not 1 mil, but only 1/4 of that and once that is gone and floor established, then 0 and 4 goes too.

The vowels, and 0 & 4 are cultural.

The Chinese do not care for Western alapa, they buy only what works for them.

I irk you to go, and buy a 4L.com sitting in a ename account with a Chinese whois, see what they quote you. They will quote you 6 figures all day. Is it rational, of course not, but this is their belief.

 

[Shams]

@Markith Appreciate your opinion.

If anything, the events in the last few weeks defies everything we thought knew about domaining.
So we cannot apply conventional domaining knowledge on the Chinese dragon.

Pmax everything is a best guess and no one can predict the future.we are here to share our knowledge and opinion. the most important thing why everyone is just thinking about the china. there are total 195 countries in the world who also use internet and register domains for their businesses everyday.

 

[alcy]

@Markith Appreciate your opinion.


Pmax everything is a best guess and no one can predict the future.we are here to share our knowledge and opinion. the most important thing why everyone is just thinking about the china. there are total 195 countries in the world who also use internet and register domains for their businesses everyday.

well put sir!
that's what I like about domaining. there will always be something else.. some new trend.. a new train if we missed the last one etc..

it's always been like this. and domaining will be no more if ever it stops being so.