My predictions
Pricing:
Domain resale prices will continue to rise, with a few high profile domains pushing things upward. A few huge sales will cause a new gold rush of newbies asking astronomical prices for crap (more than the past couple years).
New registrations will remain about the same, with some registrars giving discounts under the $6.75 mark for bulk purchasers. Various regisries will compete with the low price or free specials following what .info has done. The ccTLD's .ws and .cc will come down to more realistic pricing to match the new domains, and find a sharp rise in sales by doing so.
Extensions:
The .net registry will be awarded to someone other than Verisign, who will do major promotion and try to tie it in to the Microsoft ".net"/xml initiative giving it the "networking" designation it was originally intended. Pricing will remain the same with most of the registrars absorbing the proposed $.75 per domain ICANN operating fee.
The .info TLD will continue to gain moderate growth, with more site being developed worldwide. There will be a huge drop on the anniversary of the free info giveaway, but the drop catchers will see strong interest in picking up a portion at the $60+ rates.
.biz will have moderate growth, with more acceptance as good .info domains are more scarce. Howerver, it will be mostly in the English speaking countries. Europeans will instead turn to the .eu TLD.
.us will heat up as domain become more scarce, and there will be some competition between .us and .eu tld's.
Third level .name will have to become free with the purchase of second level paid email services to keep from losing numbers.
All the new semi-approved sponsored domains (.travel, .mobi, .post, .jobs) will share similar successes as the last round (.coop, .museum, .pro, .aero). New gTLD applications will be taken, but will be put off until late 2006.
There will be at least 2-3 more ccTLD's converted to general use further adding to market confustion and helping drown out any major headway for .ws and .cc.
Domain Drops:
ICANN will not do anything about the elimination of domain drops in 2005, by changing registar TOS agreemenents to convert them to registar ownership to auction as they please....If only to not give Verisign the chance to get their WLS.
We'll see at least one more major registrar (maybe more) create services similar to pool, club drop, etc. Godaddy will end up converting their fixed price backorder to an auction service like everyone else, or risk losing their share of drop market and drop partners.
Other:
As ebay, paypal, and the banks begin to get a handle on phishing schemes, the scammers will start preying on domain owners posing as registrars and hosting companies.
A major bank or financial powerhouse will come to market with a credible alternative to paypal with FDIC protection for US based users. (Okay, not a prediction for '05, but a wish). I'm really surprised Citibank, Intuit, or some other company hasn't done this already.
Spam won't get much better, but whois harvesting will slow somewhat as more registrars put better controls on access.
