discuss In the trench 2016 domain market predictions

[168]

The industry experts have provided their insights for 2016. Post in the trench 2016 market predictions from your perspective. Limit predictions up to 6. Thank you !

1. Back-end consolidation of Registries and Registrars (common prediction)
2. Improvements in Auction site standardization, cross communication, services
2. .Com retains legacy status but begins a midlife identity crisis as global brands roll out their new tld's
3. .New gtld's will gain traction in higher SEO rankings.
4. Relevance "Built in" will be a key factor in new traffic
5. China market will double. 2,3,4 NL LN combination values double
6. India market will explode.

 

[paul79]

great post thanks. if the indian market does explode will that be in the .com or the .in extension do you think?

 

[Area52]

Some good predictions but dotcom will always be the gold standard.

 

[disaac81]

When people confuse new gtlds and seo you know there is little point continuing the conversation.

 

[168]

great post thanks. if the indian market does explode will that be in the .com or the .in extension do you think?

This is a question I will be asking at NamesCon this year. I don't know much about the India culture however after meeting the the registrars last year my gut says the growth will come in the new Tld's as they are not as traditional in investing as the China market. The China market is also moving toward newer Tld's for the lower price points. Both markets are doing a great job promoting the newer Tld's that make sense in their respective cultures. In both countries the country extensions are used much more widely than in the USA, It it my belief the .com has become the country code extension for the USA as we do not embrace .us at all This is one of the many reasons China is on the .com trail. China views .com as Quality because it is associated with USA. and is much more liquid globally than other extensions at this time.

 

[168]

Some good predictions but dotcom will always be the gold standard.

I agree with your statement and would like to add " the gold standard legacy". Even legacy will experience a period of pause, boredom, lost in the crowd effect for a time. It's a natural business cycle. Buyers today are in the age group 25-45 and quite entrepreneurial, not as beholden to traditions.

 

[168]

When people confuse new gtlds and seo you know there is little point continuing the conversation.

Funny ! This was true when the first group of new Tld's came out years ago. However I just read two things
about SEO and the new Tld's. 1. New Tld's are gaining in SEO due to the exact match factor.
2. Visitors could care less what extension is used. What they want is relevance.
Quote from the most recent ICANN study
perceived relevance of a site with a specific extension is key motivation for intended visitation. Familiarity and perceived relevance also appear to be stronger motivating factors for visiting new TLDs than concerns of legitimacy or trustworthiness – about a quarter or more of consumers say they are likely to visit a new TLD if it has the information they are seeking and about one in four cite a lack of relevancy as a reason for low intent to visit.

 

[disaac81]

This has been discussed before.

The tld part of the domain name is not counted as any seo benefit.

Even keywords in the "domain name" are worth very little in terms of seo, but they do play a part, which is why good emds are sought after.

goodtunes.com = good + tunes as keywords in the domain name

good.tunes = good as keyword in the domain name.

You will find that seo novices get confused with domain name and tld, sadly they spread the wrong information and lots of money is then wasted.

 

[168]

I'm looking for predictions other than ".com will always be the gold standard" monopoly.
The market is changing. Rapidly. Global corporations are rolling out their own Tlds
.Bank has more than 40% of the world banks signed up.
New generations are not going to cling to .com "just because" The new economy is global and there just isn't
enough "gold standard" at reasonable price points to accommodate the new economy. Until now, there wasn't any viable competition! Now there is and the .com world will have to adjust. Not loose. The market share can and probably will remain the same. The difference is the pie has gotten a hole lot bigger.

 

[hugegrowth]

1. China domain investors won't go away, but will increase in numbers. 2015 was just the start.
2. Prices for letter and numeric chips will ebb and flow, but mostly trend up for shorter/better combinations in .com
3. Demand/prices for alternate extensions in up to 5N and 5L chips will trend up, as .com prices move out of reach for investors with lower budgets.
4. Maybe another one or two extensions will take off in popularity like .xyz and .club did this year.
5. The .co registry will lower their registration fee to the $10 to $15 range.

Some people think that Chinese investors will go away once their stock market has improved or they have something else to invest in. I think we've seen a more permanent change and the demand for Chips will be something that continues going forward, prices will fluctuate but this is a change that is here to stay. I think a whole domaining industry will continue to build up in China, with products, services, blogs, etc all catering to domaining the way we know it here. When you factor in that investors from India and other countries may start joining in, these times we are going through now and the next few years could be great.

The biggest issue for me right now, is trying to find what extension(s) may be next to jump, and to buy up good NN, LL, NNN, LLL, NNNN, etc before the crowds show up. It is amazing what Chinese and domain buyers in general have bought up so far...

 

[168]

This has been discussed before.

The tld part of the domain name is not counted as any seo benefit.

Even keywords in the "domain name" are worth very little in terms of seo, but they do play a part, which is why good emds are sought after.

goodtunes.com = good + tunes as keywords in the domain name

good.tunes = good as keyword in the domain name.

You will find that seo novices get confused with domain name and tld, sadly they spread the wrong information and lots of money is then wasted.

The success stories are just starting to come out. check out .nyc .diamonds, ,global. Yes, google and others do not place emphasis in their algos. The preferences are coming from visitors. If any company relies to heavily on the Search Engine Ops (SEO) they will alway be chasing the google,bing etc. tail. instead of what their customer is doing. duh. Sadly the SEO experts have left out the most important factor. The customer.

 

[168]

1. China domain investors won't go away, but will increase in numbers. 2015 was just the start.
2. Prices for letter and numeric chips will ebb and flow, but mostly trend up for shorter/better combinations in .com
3. Demand/prices for alternate extensions in up to 5N and 5L chips will trend up, as .com prices move out of reach for investors with lower budgets.
4. Maybe another one or two extensions will take off in popularity like .xyz and .club did this year.
5. The .co registry will lower their registration fee to the $10 to $15 range.

Some people think that Chinese investors will go away once their stock market has improved or they have something else to invest in. I think we've seen a more permanent change and the demand for Chips will be something that continues going forward, prices will fluctuate but this is a change that is here to stay. I think a whole domaining industry will continue to build up in China, with products, services, blogs, etc all catering to domaining the way we know it here. When you factor in that investors from India and other countries may start joining in, these times we are going through now and the next few years could be great.

The biggest issue for me right now, is trying to find what extension(s) may be next to jump, and to buy up good NN, LL, NNN, LLL, NNNN, etc before the crowds show up. It is amazing what Chinese and domain buyers in general have bought up so far...

Thank you ! Great insight ! Yes, a more permanent change and demand!
What I have been seeing on the auctions is short N/L combos flying off the shelf. still in the .com, .net, .cc, .cn, .win, and .co is picking up speed. It is my understanding China is just doing what a good investor should. Spread their long term investments out beyond local fluctuating policy and downs.
Americans take for granted how long we have been connected. The rest of the world is now as connected as we were 10-15 years ago.

 

[hugegrowth]

The Chip factor reduces the supply as well.

If you look at NNNN, there are 10,000 combinations but only about 4,096 are chips.
LLL has 17,576 combinations but only 8,000 are chips.
... and so on ...

The question is beyond .com, what other extensions will be in demand for chip domains? You can see already .net, .cc, .top, .xyz, .co and some others have run up quickly. I was looking at .CX today and most or all of the NNN and NNNN are taken. And the reg fee for those is $35 to $99 each depending where you go.

I doubt China will get into .horse and .family type extensions, so which ones will be the winners?
In some ways you can see if the number of domain investors and demand for short chips goes up, there is actually limited supply in short chips in wanted extensions.

 

[168]

The Chip factor reduces the supply as well.

If you look at NNNN, there are 10,000 combinations but only about 4,096 are chips.
LLL has 17,576 combinations but only 8,000 are chips.
... and so on ...

The question is beyond .com, what other extensions will be in demand for chip domains? You can see already .net, .cc, .top, .xyz, .co and some others have run up quickly. I was looking at .CX today and most or all of the NNN and NNNN are taken. And the reg fee for those is $35 to $99 each depending where you go.

I doubt China will get into .horse and .family type extensions, so which ones will be the winners?
In some ways you can see if the number of domain investors and demand for short chips goes up, there is actually limited supply in short chips in wanted extensions.

Good points, I have done several searches for chips in many Tld's, somethings going on. Either the Regs are holding 1-3 characters back or they are mostly gone. What makes sense to the China investor is liquidity, then novelty not just short N and L's. Look at the actual chinese auction sites to see what is showing up and selling.
It appears that the new "premium" is 1-4 characters in any extension the culture can relate to. For example,
some of the animal extension could do well as animals are a big part of the culture. Others would be popular just because the name is funny. ( the easy to recall, unique factors )
There are 4N's and 4L's available in other Tld's but not seeing 3's.

 

[hugegrowth]

In my 15 years of domaining, 2015 was one of the most interesting and exciting years of all. I hope these new trends we're seeing don't go away.

 

[168]

One other item I would like to mention, Search. I did some comparison search queries on Baidu. The results
are very different compared to Google etc. Baidu shows mostly .com preference at this time. interesting!
Other extensions will show if they are typed in but it appears as if the search for other tld's is lagging.

 

[168]

In my 15 years of domaining, 2015 was one of the most interesting and exciting years of all. I hope these new trends we're seeing don't go away.

me too! Without consideration for political, policy or natural disaster influence I believe we have 2-3 years of double digit growth before saturation.

 

[hugegrowth]

I thought domaining had stabilized by 2014, and the new gtlds would be the only wildcard.

2015 changed all that. Now we are all trying to figure out what extensions and what type of domains will be valuable. How long can a numeric or letter chip go before it starts getting silly?

 

[Area52]

I agree with your statement and would like to add " the gold standard legacy". Even legacy will experience a period of pause, boredom, lost in the crowd effect for a time. It's a natural business cycle. Buyers today are in the age group 25-45 and quite entrepreneurial, not as beholden to traditions.

People will always think of the dotcom first. Not a new argument on my part because that's just the way it is.

 

[hugegrowth]

I don't think anyone disagrees like that, but not everyone can have or afford the .com, so you have no choice but to go elsewhere.

Also, kids growing up today are seeing all kinds of domain extensions when they use the web, so over time others get accepted and recognized too. It's a slow process but will happen over years.

 

[168]

It is my understanding numbers are simply an easier way to communicate vs typing in chinese characters and more easily recognizable to the rest of the world. Like .com, numbers will always be popular in the China market as numbers are also huge in terms of culture.
As you mentioned before 1-4 characters are rare. Everybody likes rare.
I'm not so sure about the Acro's. Even though they are rare in most cases you have to "explain" in terms of marketing like forever. The Acro's lack "perceived relevance" which could also affect recall. I think the popularity for Acro's will decline as other short more relevant gain.
What extensions and what type of domains will be valuable? Good Luck.Club Wildcard.Club Market.Club
That's what makes for exciting times, it's anybody's guess, research. There are no experts yet. The market is the whole planet ! And, And, only 40% of the population is connected ! User base is a more accurate number to use to measure potential growth, a significant % of labor will be self employed, more products and services companies to accommodate the huge global population. There are very few mega corps. compared to mid-small and most, in all categories purchase more than 1. It's not uncommon for companies to have several
hundred!
I believe the types of domains and extension values will be related to Location of use, Relevance, Trends.
The numbers craze is a great example. Numbers sat somewhat useless for a very long time until a market emerged in a Location on the planet where numbers have Relevance so strong it wouldn't be considered a short term Trend.
Not so long ago Experts were recommending NOT TO BUY numbers or N/L combinations and only .com
That was a pretty big blind spot.

 

[buywebsites.biz]

The tld part of the domain name is not counted as any seo benefit.

If you can slip your keyword into the domain, even if it's right of the dot, then you'll be able to build more exact match anchors relative to competitors. It's basically getting a pass as branded anchor text w/o triggering the Google penalty for overly optimized exact match anchors.

 

[168]

If you can slip your keyword into the domain, even if it's right of the dot, then you'll be able to build more exact match anchors relative to competitors. It's basically getting a pass as branded anchor text w/o triggering the Google penalty for overly optimized exact match anchors.

Sweet! Great input! you'll be able to build more exact match anchors relative to competitors

 

[DomainVP]

In 2016 the "American Domain Rush" happens on the backs of increased knowledge of "Drop Catching", "Expiring Auctions", and the resale marketplace - due to highly publicized reports "Chinese Domain Rush". Even your blue-collar neighbor knows how domain auctions work by the end of the year.

There hasn't been a 'domain show' yet on cable TV, but I expect there to be one by 2016/2017 - storage wars takes a back seat to these popular at-home digital domain auctions.

"good"/"okay" Domains get more and more expensive, premiums continue to rise.

LN / NL 4C.com chips (and their shorter counterparts) reach four figure liquid status, standard variations reach a $200 floor.

I will sell a mid-high six figure domain, and won't say a word about it

 

[168]

In 2016 the "American Domain Rush" happens on the backs of increased knowledge of "Drop Catching", "Expiring Auctions", and the resale marketplace - due to highly publicized reports "Chinese Domain Rush". Even your blue-collar neighbor knows how domain auctions work by the end of the year.

There hasn't been a 'domain show' yet on cable TV, but I expect there to be one by 2016/2017 - storage wars takes a back seat to these popular at-home digital domain auctions.

"good"/"okay" Domains get more and more expensive, premiums continue to rise.

LN / NL 4C.com chips (and their shorter counterparts) reach four figure liquid status, standard variations reach a $200 floor.

I will sell a mid-high six figure domain, and won't say a word about it

LOL ! You have to send this to business pubs.!! You might just get to be on the pilot show !
Great predictions !
I agree. The no longer best kept secret is the place to be! In the money is on the buy!
Happy Happy New Year to all. May the one's that stay up all night pouring over drops and expires prosper!