Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

[freezer]

Is it a somewhat good estimate that
chinese LLLL.com premiums are at at least $1billion value today?
Unlike Number .coms chinese premium LLLL.com boomed in value in a very short period.
Will they hold their value or is it the biggest BUBBLE ever seen in domains?

Share your thoughts please

 

[frank-germany]

if you lose on income taxes or domain makes no difference

 

[mitok]

China's boom is built on massive levels of debts, banks are leveraged to the hilt, it will be the biggest "credit crunch" the world has ever seen. Their growth is being superficially maintained by huge amounts of unsustainable debt creation.

You are talking about US or China? Or both?
Yes, crisis is possible and will come for sure. When? Nobody knows! But it will affect LLLL.coms just as any other premium one word keyword .com, real estate market, auto industry, paintings, postal stamps, football market, advertisers etc. So according to your sayings it would be the best choice that nobody invest in ANYTHING.

BTW, besides experts on domain market, another huge bubble is dollar! Yes, it will go more up soon after expected FED decision, but it is one of the biggest bubbles the world has ever seen. And this bubble is not new, but STILL GROWING. If LLLL.coms really are a bubble like you said, you cant be sure it will burst soon. As US have enough military and diplomacy power to maintain their dollar bubble, Chinese investors have enough cash to maintain LLLL.com "bubble".
You mentioned economics, if you really understand economics then you must agree or I cant talk with you about economics.

 

[thetruman]

It would be a bad thing for anybody selling anything into China, whether that's a physical product or an intangible asset like a domain name.

not exactly. Chinese, forecasting a devaluation of the national currency buy assets that are liquid and denominated in another currency and are available anywhere in the World. Yes I am talking of domain names.

 

[DomainGist]

buy assets that are liquid and denominated in another currency and are available anywhere in the World.

They will look for alternative assets, yes, but not assets where the demand is almost entirely being driven internally.

It isn't Russians, Americans and Brits driving the demand for Chinese premium LLLL domains is it!

Look, we'll wait and see.

I do understand that somebody who holds a particular asset will only want to "talk up" that asset, and won't want to "talk down" that asset.

I'm merely pointing out that if late entrants get stung and you get out in time, you won't be shedding any tears for them.

As somebody who has no current horse in this race I've got nothing to win or lose. You have, so as long as we clear that one of us has a bias because of a declared vested interest and one doesn't then lets just agree to disagree.

 

[thetruman]

good discussion, just wanted to point out the other side of the coin. Undoubtably chineses are buying domains not as investment and neither to build websites on them (or partially not). The flow of capitals out of China is huge and this is one way to hide them securely in a safe and not-audited space.By the way my investment in the chinese space is limited. I rather prefer good brandables or keywords. But I think is worth to diversify on the chinese market

 

[thetruman]

plus I forgot to mention how china is behind on the web market at world level. We are talking big numbers and themarket online is a big share of the economy. This means there is need for acquire domains that is your space on the web. Put all those pieces together andyou will see that the potential is immense

 

[accent]

A bubble is where a price grows beyond rational levels.
A REVERSE bubble is where a price is held down below rational levels, for example by government policy or superstition.

LLLL.com WAS a reverse bubble. Ever since the buy-out, and long before, many people have said that 460,000 LLLL.com domains was a tiny amount compared with the world potential of the internet - and that the LLLL.com price should align with LLL.com. This mis-alignment was seized on by Chinese investors as a buying opportunity when the Chinese government changed the rules encouraging enterprise.

Now the CP LLLL.com floor is (very roughly) 1/20 the CP LLL.com floor and the non-CP market is moving to 1/26. I suggest the market is now at (near) balance. There is no bubble - there was a reverse bubble, now corrected.

One inference from this line of thinking is that I would not expect a large increase in LLLL.com prices from here without a similar % increase in LL and LLL.com.

 

[Recons.Com]

Bulls and Bears fighting it out...

Don't see the point in getting overemotional.

If somebody shares his/her honest opinion (unless it is an invite into a scam), see if you can use those insights and ignore if you cannot. No need to attack the source.

 

[Weber]

You don't make money with domains being a bear.

 

[domainventure]

Technically you can. Downplay a category of domains as bad, prices start falling, swoop in and buy some, resistance points get built, leading to more buys...of course I am oversimplifying it and it happens over a period of time.

Everything is cyclical, as long as the demand and supply sides have strength in numbers. The current domain market is a microcosm of what is being played out in the stock markets at a larger scale.

You don't make money with domains being a bear.

 

[Weber]

Technically, but not practical. Besides you wouldn't actually be a bear, technically.

 

[Recons.Com]

Let's say you are bearish on ChiP LLL.com and you own 2, you sell them at $100K-120K expecting that they'll fall back to $20-30K range and you'll get 4-6 of those back without spending an extra dime.

 

[thetruman]

Let's say you are bearish on ChiP LLL.com and you own 2, you sell them at $100K-120K expecting that they'll fall back to $20-30K range and you'll get 4-6 of those back without spending an extra dime.

honestly this doesn t work. Any share is equal, any domain is different

 

[Recons.Com]

honestly this doesn t work. Any share is equal, any domain is different

If you have qxk.com and xzq.com, and don't have option value of something like bnt.com or myt.com, then the "floor price" might be the best you'll ever get.

 

[djum]

One example of history is that Hungary was great football nation, but today an average college team could beat them.

Last time I checked Hungary was in top-20 in the world and just qualified to EURO 2016. I doubt any college team can beat national team from top-20.

 

[mitok]

Last time I checked Hungary was in top-20 in the world and just qualified to EURO 2016. I doubt any college team can beat national team from top-20.

It was just an figurative example. Discussing quality of some national teams in top 20 FIFA ranking would be off topic, but some national teams definitely don't deserve their position on that ranking.

 

[DomainGist]

It was just an figurative example. Discussing quality of some national teams in top 20 FIFA ranking would be off topic, but some national teams definitely don't deserve their position on that ranking.

What teams who are not in the top 20 deserve to be in the top 20?

That's the best way to look at it.....

The reason that France aren't in the top 20 is that they haven't been playing European qualifiers because they qualify automatically as hosts.

Other than that.... Mexico maybe, who else?

 

[mitok]

What teams who are not in the top 20 deserve to be in the top 20?

That's the best way to look at it.....

The reason that France aren't in the top 20 is that they haven't been playing European qualifiers because they qualify automatically as hosts.

Other than that.... Mexico maybe, who else?

First of all, positions inside top 20 are not true picture of strength. Belgium is a good team and definitely deserves top 20, but the best in the world? I don't think so Secondly, there are teams in top 20 which definitely are not good enough to be in top 20 as they are only average teams. I will not name any of them as don't want to insult any supporter. But this is off topic

 

[DGMDomains]

Last sales on 4.cn. Usually their prices end around $1900-$2000. Could be a good sign for now.

mtmz.com $2,351.69 12/15/2015 4.cn
pfyz.com $2,365.45 12/15/2015 4.cn
pdqj.com $2,241.76 12/15/2015 4.cn

 

[MR PACKER]

Last sales on 4.cn. Usually their prices end around $1900-$2000. Could be a good sign for now.

mtmz.com $2,351.69 12/15/2015 4.cn
pfyz.com $2,365.45 12/15/2015 4.cn
pdqj.com $2,241.76 12/15/2015 4.cn

The CP LLLL.com market is still very strong, prices are holding well and forming a new base price.
Not going south at all as predicted by the doomsday crew.

I'm sleeping well at night knowing I still have all mine..........

 

[MR PACKER]

Did WhoIs check of a sample of CP's bought just 2 weeks ago (Around Dec 2nd).

All are now in Chinese hands........

snsw.com - bought for $2600
pmjr.com - bought for $4900
bfyp.com - bought for $1938
cjfj.com - bought for $1938
bklz.com - bought for $1906
jblz.com - bought for $1906

Yes they are still buying........

 

[Nile Patel]

I m beat of confuse now why in this thread people start talking about crash and all negative comments when prices going up why there was no talk when prices was going south few days back, can any one explain that to me.

 

[MR PACKER]

So now a Chinese buyer who spammed me with emails everyday last week has increased his offer to buy my CP's from $1000 each to $1900.

The Chinese buyers want these CP's badly......hold on for the next leg up.

It's coming soon!

 

[hullswingerscom]

yes me too but what price would you let go mr packer

 

[DomainVP]

I m beat of confuse now why in this thread people start talking about crash and all negative comments when prices going up why there was no talk when prices was going south few days back, can any one explain that to me.

Sure, there is no need to blow the horn when it's happening. Unlike when the price goes up, anyone forecasting a downturn doesn't really feel the need to add a 'told you so' to the conversation.

When the price goes up, all investors want to talk about it and spread the word. What good does it do to broadcast downturns while they are happening.

Prices going back up won't have much longevity, and there wont be any huge offload of LLLL immediately - but smart investors start to sell during price increases after a significant decline - which then lead to a steeper decline which could take weeks or months).

Then, there are the hopeful that bought at $2500 - $3000 that will never sell at the current prices, or actually aim to launch development plans. You won't see these sold at $1900 because it's an immediate loss, and they are holding out either way.

It's just investor behavior, no matter what the asset.