Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

[freezer]

Is it a somewhat good estimate that
chinese LLLL.com premiums are at at least $1billion value today?
Unlike Number .coms chinese premium LLLL.com boomed in value in a very short period.
Will they hold their value or is it the biggest BUBBLE ever seen in domains?

Share your thoughts please

 

[elmoney]

I think, that chinese premium llll market is the bubble (not english premium).

 

[1john2004]

I don't think it's bubble, just a new reality. For people from China their letters are very premium and China is big
BTW the same "bubble" is with nnn.com, nnnn.com, nnnnnn.com, ccc.com ,lll.net etc.

 

[Kate]

A bubble is marked by a sudden, irrational increase in prices. I think it does apply here.

 

[Vebster]

I would guess the whole LLLL.com is kind of a bubble. Random LLLL.coms go for 500 $ and I can't really see value in all of the 456.976! combinations. Yes, there's a "shortage" in these combinations, but I think is made up artificially by some big domainers who hold 1000's of LLLL.coms. Is it realistic to expect even 200.000 of them going to endusers? Many LLLL.com domains go from domainer to domainer, but are there really enough endusers to buy? If only half of all LLLLs find no enduser, there would be a HUGE BUBBLE currently valued at 150~ million dollar.

This is the opinion of a domain beginner

 

[mirul]

I don't think it's bubble, just a new reality. For people from China their letters are very premium and China is big

100% agreed

 

[campout]

I don't think it is a bubble. The reason why is because of the insane growth that China has experienced over the past 10, 15 or whatever years. Then take into account that the population of China is something like 1 billion people, and the fact that they were later arrivals (en masse) to the Internet, and I think the rise in LLLL.com prices we have seen may be justified.

I tend to think domain names (as a whole) are still undervalued by the world. Having the right web address is very important! IMHO. What is $500, really?

I also think that it is relatively recently that people have realized the value of shortness in domain names, which maybe is related in part to the proliferation of mobile phones, the continued increasing worldwide addiction to the Internet (and corresponding impatience with anything extraneous, time-wasting, or unnecessary), and to a lesser extent the de-valuing of the content of the actual URL in Google SERPs.

 

[SlimPickins]

i have been wondering about this too, and great to see the thread. i am not near as much involved in domains as i was a few years ago, and still remember the THRILL of getting into 4-letter .coms when the "original" llll bubble started to get blown to max capacity from left, right, up, down and in between.... including by yours truly. I had some fun, was great to at least "feel" like I was in on the next big trend just in time and I made some quick ROI on a lot of domains in that frenzied time..... but also wound up holding on to MANY domains that I paid dearly for that, once the bubble burst before I could flip them, really didn't have a chance to sell and break even anymore, ie the market was still flooded with way too many similar quality domains at "selling at a loss, but these renewal fees are killing me" prices and there were ZERO potential endusers that I could find. Some I sold at a loss, some I held onto, some eventually DID sell to endusers and some I hold onto still....

I have sold several of my "bad quality" domains over the last year or so, many to chinese buyers, for "back in the day" quad premium prices or even better, on domains that wouldn't sell for $50 here even a year or 2 ago. But of ALL the domains I sold to them, i had previously already reached out to any and all potential buyers, ie registrants of other extensions (that were also usually from China) and any businesses.... never sold any. And all of the domains that I sold, when I look now, are all parked/still available for sale.

I have no doubt that the growing market in China, and their interest in short domains, is a great thing for the niche, and am certain that Chinese domainers/people familiar enough with the language and/or diligent enough in their research, can scoop up some great domains that make just as much, if not more, sense to buy as a speculation/investment domain as many of us did here using "quad premium" or similar criteria.... they know which letters, linguistically and statistically, have the most reasonable chance of selling to an enduser for a profit immediately or eventually. But, at least based on my limited understanding of the different letter preferences etc, it still seems like there are currently a LOT of domains here on the forums and the marketplaces that neither seem promising in an "old school" english language quality letter assessment nor based on what would seem desirable in the Chinese market (ie no vowels and/or V etc) which makes it feel like we are beginning to puff up prices based on no clear reasoning.

And while I am STILL a very big believer in short acronym domains, and 4-letter coms are my favorite domains, seeing this relatively very quick and dramatic interest in domains that were being ignored, laughed at, sold dirt cheap and being picked up for peanuts when they expired... these domains were here all along, ripe for the CHEAP picking, and expiring left and right.... but now suddenly they are "must have" domains?

For the health of the market, I sure hope that it maintains...... but I will stick to buying domains where I can see potential for sale, regardless of the letter quality here or there.

 

[Kate]

...seeing this relatively very quick and dramatic interest in domains that were being ignored, laughed at, sold dirt cheap and being picked up for peanuts when they expired... these domains were here all along, ripe for the CHEAP picking, and expiring left and right.... but now suddenly they are "must have" domains?

Exactly right, junk domains have become (Chinese) premium overnight ? Something is not right here.
Even if there is a sudden realization of value - and not just a domainer bubble, that shows once again that domainers are followers, they seldom anticipate the trends and patterns of the future, and when they do so it often turns into hype threads à la 3D that lead to nowhere.

If you are buying 4L.com now, you've missed the boat. It sailed a long time ago. It's no big deal really, cause I have missed the boat so many times too. You will do better next time.

What you don't want is to buy domains at inflated value and be left holding the bag: big renewal fees combined with inability to resell at a profit and lack of liquidity. The greater fool theory is not fun when you are the last in line.

IMHO.

 

[Vebster]

The greater fool theory is not fun when you are the last in line.

This is very true :D

 

[1john2004]

If you are buying 4L.com now, you've missed the boat. It sailed a long time ago.

IMHO.

Only time will tell.... (current floor price for chinese premium is $550. let's see in a cople of months from now)

 

[freezer]

I would guess the whole LLLL.com is kind of a bubble. Random LLLL.coms go for 500 $ and I can't really see value in all of the 456.976! combinations. Yes, there's a "shortage" in these combinations, but I think is made up artificially by some big domainers who hold 1000's of LLLL.coms. Is it realistic to expect even 200.000 of them going to endusers? Many LLLL.com domains go from domainer to domainer, but are there really enough endusers to buy? If only half of all LLLLs find no enduser, there would be a HUGE BUBBLE currently valued at 150~ million dollar.

This is the opinion of a domain beginner

Yes you are right, the value is more likely to be 150 million for chinese premiums only!

 

[campout]

If you are buying 4L.com now, you've missed the boat. It sailed a long time ago.

"It sailed a long time ago" <--this is simply not true in any way, shape, or form.

What happens in the future, nobody knows. But we do know what has happened in the past, and the fact is if you bought Chinese LLLL.com's a whopping 1 month ago, you are up 58% on your investment already, which equates to a 24,000% annualized return. Quite frankly, if you bought last week, you are doing well

So it's wholly inaccurate to say that the boat "sailed a long time ago" when anyone who bought (and held) at anytime this year is doing great.

 

[Jen-Sin]

Even if a bubble is forming, I feel there is still a certain price support and the price will not drop to zero.

Compared to 2008, there are much more domainers in the industry, which will provide price resilience. Also since 2008, sites will have been developed over the past 7 years, and the floating supply is lesser. In addition, market is more efficient today, and commission of market places are not as exorbitant. The buy out of .net will form another level of support beneath.

 

[SlimPickins]

i think there are always "boats" sailing in the direction we want to go.... question is how much you can afford for a ticket, how long you are willing to "ride it out", and whether your "destination" has already been built, is soon to be built or, regardless of whether it may ever be built or not you just hope to sell the ticket to someone else for a quick profit asap and not risk the ride.

I am no pro, and definitely won't profess to "know" the domain industry inside out, or pretend to be able to differentiate trends or bubbles from something here to stay and sure to continue gaining steam indefinitely.... but I am looking at it like this as of now:

1) it is AWESOME for the LLLL com niche (and probably to an extent spill over effect to other extensions etc) that there is fresh wind in the sails, and a more active and optimistic RESELLER market, based around domains that "hopefully" have more potential within the Chinese market. I really think it is great, and my hat is off to those that roll up their sleeves and are setting sail, knowing what risks they can afford to take.

2) I am seeing price expectations, and offers, go up across the board on a variety of llll's, and the question is "how high can they go", sustainably, within a reseller market? Sure, there are those that have the luxury of capital/funds available to simply buy up what they want and sit on it indefinitely, even at these recently much higher prices.... but speaking strictly within the "hot potato" reseller market, how many people can continue long term to purchase $200-$1000 domains that don't appear to currently have endusers for them, or be registered in any other extensions (except maybe the .net and .cn, and most likely by Chinese owners and parked somewhere) and just sit on them? I couldn't guess how many.... but I couldn't for very long. And I, and probably many others, would simply attempt to "bargain up" asap on the forums until...... noone wants to (or has funds available to) buy at those prices anymore. And the people that DO have the money still have the luxury of buying just the best. And, more importantly, the people who actually KNOW which domains have the potential now or later to be of interest to an ENDUSER, and not just amongst domainers, will only be interested in picking up the most promising domains at a price they are willing to speculate on. So, for expiring domains that HAVE the letter quality/potential (or known endusers), we will see them continue to battle it out up to prices that they are willing to spend. But, for the the "other" many, many domains, that were traded up and up in price but, ultimately, STILL have no more value within the "english premium" letter market or the "chinese premium" letter market will be stuck long-term in the portfolio of the domainer caught holding it, or sold at a loss, UNLESS of course there is a hypothetical enduser who needs/is interested in only THAT letter combo.

 

[campout]

I would love to hear @DotCN weigh in on this, because he knows the market better than anyone I have found. And I think he sold a bunch of LLLL.com over the years for prices above even today's prices, so maybe he was selling to end-users?

 

[Kate]

The buy out of .net will form another level of support beneath.

The buyout is a domainer mantra. It did nothing to boost the price of LLL.us/.biz/.in. In fact the buyout didn't hold.
Artificial scarcity does not produce sustainable increase in value.

1) it is AWESOME for the LLLL com niche (and probably to an extent spill over effect to other extensions etc) that there is fresh wind in the sails, and a more active and optimistic RESELLER market, based around domains that "hopefully" have more potential within the Chinese market. I really think it is great, and my hat is off to those that roll up their sleeves and are setting sail, knowing what risks they can afford to take.

The problem is that we need end users. If the domainers keep flipping the names among themselves, at some point somebody has to take a loss because the prices can't go up all the time.

If you bought 4L when the price was low now is a good time to sell and make a profit, but if you are trying to catch up now there is a real danger. I think that any market that sees an abrupt change is dangerous, like a carpet falling away under somebody's feet

 

[andom]

I don't know if it is a bubble, certainty is that a few Chinese companies are accumulating a large number of domains. I assume they must have some plans that are not given to know at the moment, unless for some reasons they decided to throw away million of dollars. At least unlikely.

Just yesterday I got an offer of $475 for each of my domains (it wasn't specified but I assume premium letters) for an up to 5000 domains package (for those wondering I have not 5000 domains).
Anyway it would be a nice $2,375,000 bulk deal. Not too bad even though a little bit less than current market rates.

 

[forge]

Exactly right, junk domains have become (Chinese) premium overnight ? Something is not right here.

It certainly did not happen overnight, and I think the "Chinese premiums" have always been there, only it took some time for that to be realized. The current market is rather frenetic and there is bound to be another "market correction", but I am a firm believer that the value will always be there. Now that the Chinese 4L premium market has emerged, I don't see it being much different than the non-Chinese (Western?) premium one.

 

[WhoaDomain.com]

Ok guys found this thread discussing Chinese domains this might now be the right spot to ask this question but let's see if I get some replies.

I recently "jumped in head first" into this whole chinese IDN rush a bit too late. I choose only one specific IDN extension. I'm worried that I chose the wrong one. so let me ask flat out. which of these Chinese IDN Extensions are the ones chinese people are more inclined to visit or purchase? or maybe I'm asking the wrong question here. Which one of these are more valuable as an investment? short term long term? Thanks. sure hope I chose the right one.

(I'm giving you the english translation for these chinese idn extensions. NOTE these ext's are actually Chinese characters.)

.中国 - .China
.在线 - .Online
.中文网 -.Chinese Website

I have looked into it and seems as though the history is that .在线 - .Online and .中文网 -.Chinese Website were the first Chinese IDN that that chinese registered with ICANN years ago then thee others followed.

But personally I feel that .China is better than thee other two (three guess which extension I chose??lol) simply because for national pride when compared to .cn I think .中国 - .China is the next best thing since there is no chinese equivalent for .cn in IDN pinyin characters.

Any thoughts?

 

[domainerfella]

I would guess the whole LLLL.com is kind of a bubble. Random LLLL.coms go for 500 $ and I can't really see value in all of the 456.976! combinations. Yes, there's a "shortage" in these combinations, but I think is made up artificially by some big domainers who hold 1000's of LLLL.coms. Is it realistic to expect even 200.000 of them going to endusers? Many LLLL.com domains go from domainer to domainer, but are there really enough endusers to buy? If only half of all LLLLs find no enduser, there would be a HUGE BUBBLE currently valued at 150~ million dollar.

This is the opinion of a domain beginner

Dear, these can be seen as digital currencies which appreciates in value when there is demand. These does not need to be developed or find end users to assign value. All Chinese based domains including numerical domains can be seen in this way. No need to find end users, no need to have development potential. Demand is the only thing for the prices to sky rocket. Investors are the ones who want to hold them and not end users. Domain values can go only up though we may see fluctuations.

 

[domainerfella]

Ok guys found this thread discussing Chinese domains this might now be the right spot to ask this question but let's see if I get some replies.

I recently "jumped in head first" into this whole chinese IDN rush a bit too late. I choose only one specific IDN extension. I'm worried that I chose the wrong one. so let me ask flat out. which of these Chinese IDN Extensions are the ones chinese people are more inclined to visit or purchase? or maybe I'm asking the wrong question here. Which one of these are more valuable as an investment? short term long term? Thanks. sure hope I chose the right one.

(I'm giving you the english translation for these chinese idn extensions. NOTE these ext's are actually Chinese characters.)

.中国 - .China
.在线 - .Online
.中文网 -.Chinese Website

I have looked into it and seems as though the history is that .在线 - .Online and .中文网 -.Chinese Website were the first Chinese IDN that that chinese registered with ICANN years ago then thee others followed.

But personally I feel that .China is better than thee other two (three guess which extension I chose??lol) simply because for national pride when compared to .cn I think .中国 - .China is the next best thing since there is no chinese equivalent for .cn in IDN pinyin characters.

Any thoughts?

You should have some commonsense not to put a post unrelated to the topic. We all spend time to read the threads and do not want to get diverted. You have the freedom to create another thread to ask the question. Please.

 

[WhoaDomain.com]

common sense? was my post talking about chicken nuggets? or tractor trailers or FREE STUFF!? My post was perfectly within the boundaries of the discussion of chinese domains. People are after a quick scroll up mention words like :

For people from China their letters are very premium and China is big .
Plus many discussions about Chinese Premium domains.

It is obvious you don't need to be a genius that thread discusses Chinese domains so a question to help another user (myself) on which ext is more valuable would not be beyond the topic of this thread is it?

I invite anyone else in this thread have a problem with my post? if there is please say so. and I'll apologize to all if I detracted from anyone's "focus" on this thread. ANYONE? Is it THAT SERIOUS DomainerFella?

no one else here decided to complain. of course we have yet to see. so let's hear it people. was my post really beyond the scope of this thread? yes or no? as I've stated already I did not post here to talk about chicken nuggets or tractor trailers or lucky bamboo. I simply had a question about the difference between one chinese IDN and another Chinese IDN and which one is more valuable as an investment.

 

[campout]

@Avtar629 This thread is specifically about Chinese LLLL.com, and even more specifically is focused on the question of whether or not we are in a bubble with this specific type of domain.

I think you'll come to appreciate this "strictness" that we have here at NP. I would do some searches on "Chinese IDN" and try to find a similar thread and respond there, or else start your own topic.

 

[forge]

I invite anyone else in this thread have a problem with my post? if there is please say so. and I'll apologize to all if I detracted from anyone's "focus" on this thread. ANYONE? Is it THAT SERIOUS DomainerFella?

I don't have a problem with your post, but because this forum is for short domains discussion, you really should post your question in a separate area.

Even posters who create threads on 6L domains here are pushing their luck, because in most circles 6L names are not considered "short" domains.

DomainerFella could have been more diplomatic.