While thank you for your sage advice based on many years of crunching use numbers
@jmcc but I don't agree with the following opinion, at least not completely.
I think it matters a lot in acceptance by small operations that are open to considering an alternative extension. If they see a big trusted brand using a new extension it gives credibility that makes a difference in later adoptions. I would argue that market awareness is overwhelmingly affected by what big names do. Or more precisely it is what big names that are relevant to other potential adopters do. If companies they know, whether locally or because big names, use an extension, they are more likely to.
Thanks for the information re renewal prices,
@MadAboutDomains. I am not sure (someone reading this thread probably knows) but do TM owners that come online during sunrise, that is before EAP, do they have to pay premium renewals?
Whatever, it is just smart marketing by Google to get some big names online by extending cheap prices in return for up front adoption. In my opinion this is what most of the ngTLD failed to do. When they came out with an extension they should have some big names clearly related to that extension on board with up and running sites.
Rather than chasing registration numbers with $1 level registrations the ngTLDs would have been better served to get trusted names as early adopters, even if they gave them the domains.
Google domains now is a top 10 registrar of .com, with their registrar business growing strongly. They are a trusted name to most, and a known name to all. Did they make some strange early domain extension decisions? Absolutely. Apple got a few things wrong before they became such a success. Ask yourself how many times you use Google each day in one way or another (search, maps, Android, Chrome, etc.) I would not bet that they do not know what they are doing in domains. Getting to 64000 registrations without discounting in a few days to me suggests that they are doing some things right.
While I agree that GoDaddy dominates, especially in North America, the registrar market, I am not as convinced that it is only GoDaddy that you look to for success of an extension. In terms of dev they are currently the third largest registrar for .dev, after Google and Namecheap. They have a bit over 9000 registrations in first two days, about 1/4 the rate Google are selling directly.
Am I a fan of Google extensions as a domain investor? Not really (personally I own 3 in total across .app, .page and .dev). Do I think they will become a bigger and bigger player in domains. Yes.
Bob