What is your forecast for the next couple of years when it comes to domaining.

[oldtimer]

What is your forecast for the next couple of years for domaining and what are you doing to adjust to the new landscape of the domain Industry.

It used to be that first tire .com domains were fetching six or even seven figure prices on a regular basis, even second and third tier domains in .com were selling for a hefty sum up to just a couple of years ago. But now it seems like the million dollar sales are all but gone and the average selling price for .coms has fallen to the low to medium four figures.

In my opinion .com is always going to remain popular and most people are probably going to prefer it over all the other alternatives, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average price for keyword .com domains dropping down to the three figure range in the near future especially if some of the big companies start giving away free domains (in their New gTLDs) to their customers and clients as a means of attracting and keeping more visitors.

Even the .com traffic domains that have enjoyed a steady level of traffic in the past might lose some of their value as people start typing in New gTLD combinations out of curiosity instead of the many popular keywords in .com that they have been used to typing before.

At this time I have come to believe that one of the domaining categories that has the best chances going forward even in the new landscape of the domain Industry is Brandable domains especially those that are suitable for broad use and that can be sold in the low to medium four figures.

IMO

What is you forecast for the next couple of years.

 

[Jasonn]

i think there will be a few big sales for the new gtld domains but not many and we won't see them gain much traction in the first couple of years despite what some say. i don't see .com sales slowing down much if at all. i can't see giving away domains changing anything either. those who want free domains (with a catch im sure) weren't going to buy domains on the aftermarket anyways. for myself, i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

 

[oldtimer]

i don't see .com sales slowing down much if at all.

You are right the total number of .com sales might stay the same or might even increase as more people and businesses come online, but in my opinion the average prices for .com will continue to go down (even for the New gTLDs too after seeing a few high profile sales at the beginning as you pointed out).

i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

That's what I am planing to do for the most part too, although I like to develop a few of my domains somewhere along the way.

 

[Havela]

I think the new gTLDs - together with apps - will change the Internet landscape completely. Yes, I am aware that so far new gTLD launches have failed, but I do not think the past can be used to shed light on the future in this case.

The new gTLDs, due to sheer mass alone, will dissolve the .com hegemony, especially when assisted by apps, continuous search engine algorithm updates and other new technology. Future browsers will not facilitate type-ins and search engines will place less and less focus on extension and more and more on content. Perhaps, in a few years, extensions will not even be visible, at least not in the way we are used to seeing them today.

We should keep in mind that there is no desire in the general population, or on the part of the authorities, to maintain the current situation where some people get rich due to shortage of a particular good. Many people consider this unjust riches. Hence, people will embrace change in this area.

The reason why new gTLDs have failed so far is simply that the number of extensions has remained limited (except for ccTLDs, which have their international ranking limitations) and hence possible to maintain in easy categories of valuable and worthless. In a few years, that will no longer be the case. It will be impossible to maintain an aristocracy of extensions - let alone an overview of what is out there.

I am not saying this will happen in the next two years, and perhaps, for a time, we will even see people 'flock to what they know', as many domainers are hoping, but in 10 years the landscape will have changed immeasurably and 'domaining' will probably be a thing of the past. That is my prediction.

 

[Kate]

I think that domainers will continue to struggle and as usual, very few will make money.

Sorry Havela, I don't think that the new extensions will have a huge impact, for many reasons. So many are going to be released at once, that their respective market shares will be tiny, they will be very diluted and almost invisible as a result. Of course, there will be exceptions. Perhaps some geoTLDs. But they will be niche TLDs at best.

It's not 2000 anymore, the rise of ccTLDs has diminished the appeal of generic extensions.
End users outside America are typically only interested in .com + plus their local extension, sometimes .org if they are non-profit.

So oldvintage.cars looks cool on the surface but in practical terms it is like advertising in the middle of the desert. Until an extension is used massively it remains a vanity item. Don't underestimate the importance of domain names in branding and advertising. Mark my words

Conclusion: I do not anticipate a shift in the trends that already exist.

The trends will not be dictated by domainers anyway, but there is something you can do, it is to decide where your position in the food chain is going to be.

 

[Name Trader]

@Havela - When do you get out? In 9.5 years time?

 

[Havela]

@ sdsinc - no reason to be sorry I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but - obviously - that is not what I think will happen.

@Havela - When do you get out? In 9.5 years time?

Yeah, something like that I'll stay in as long as I think there's money to be made and I have fun. And domaining is a lot of fun - it's just that I think this industry has passed its peak. Technology has caught up with it.

 

[oldtimer]

it's just that I think this industry has passed its peak. Technology has caught up with it.

Perhaps the domain Industry has passed it’s peak as far as prices, but don’t write off the domain names themselves so fast, even with apps and all the other new technologies businesses are still going to need to have a name, and that’s beside the point of how people arrive at their website. IMO

 

[mjnels]

i think Havela summed it up correctly. gTLD's will win out in the end.

the sheer volume will make them "normal"

 

[oldtimer]

... gTLD's will win out in the end.

the sheer volume will make them "normal"

You might be right, on the other hand you might be wrong

But one thing is for sure there won’t really be any winners as far as domainers are concerned once domain prices (for all extensions old and new) start getting lower and lower. In another words no one will see any need to pay anything above registration fee (or the initial auction fee) once the scarcity of domains is no longer a factor. IMO

 

[mjnels]

But one thing is for sure there won’t really be any winners as far as domainers are concerned once domain prices (for all extensions old and new) start getting lower and lower. In another words no one will see any need to pay anything above registration fee (or the initial auction fee) once the scarcity of domains is no longer a factor. IMO

yep and this is why nobody wants to talk about it. because you basically have to admit that yes, things will probably change due to the sheer volume but good luck domaining in gtlds when the scarcity is so low.

.com will still get sales of course.. but if people are thinking absolutely nothing will change in terms of pricing they're in for a rude awakening.

also, people are talking like it matters that they all will dilute each other... unless you're invested in one of these gTLD's you shouldnt be looking at it from that angle. you should be looking at it from the angle that it will dilute .com prices somewhat. 1 termite isnt going to destroy your home but 2,000 and more marching toward your house will. people should stop looking at it from the angle that no *1 of them* will gain traction.. that isnt even important.

how much will it dilute .com prices? i dont know. but saying ZERO and that .com will continue to go up in value.. LOL dream on peoples.

 

[alien51]

for myself, i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

Unfortunately, that statement above is just a philosophy. It is not a business model.

You need to come up with a serious cash flow plan. Or else domaining will cause you to go bankrupt. Most domainers' portfolio, are illiquid assets (more like liabilities to many others), and they bleed money every year due to renewals.

 

[Jawed]

The question is about the next couple of years. I don’t see any forceful factors that may change the domaining trends. I don’t see any future for new gTLDs from a domainer’s perspective.

.com will keep losing its ground due to the popularity of ccTLDs, in my opinion. Nevertheless, there is nothing in the market that can replace .com in foreseeable future.

Last but not least, as said above, there is no good news for domainers, most of them will struggle and a very few will make any reasonable income.

 

[DnEbook]

It is highly possible that domainers have cut their own throats by holding out for big bucks with their names, on the other hand .com is fully entrenched at the moment and will always have a presence. I dont think .sony or .cannon are much of a threat but ones like .music surely will gain some ground. My prediction is you will do ok if you are not too greedy, also consider trying to develop some of your names

 

[tonyk2000]

re

An interesting question...

Limiting my thoughts to current "model":

- Almost all new tlds will fail. Only those who managed to reach a deal with GoDaddy and major EU-based registrars will survive. What tlds will GoDaddy elect to promote - nobody knows... A notable exception would be tlds won by google for example, should they elect to offer domains in their ".sometld" for free to lets say all gmail users with corresponding mailbox: [email protected] will receive corresponding user.sometld domain for free but will have to host their website with google. Google already has access to many private business documents through "google docs" etc., so the next step should be accessing corporate websites from inside and offering a technology providing an user with an opportunity to voluntary let google in.

- Endusers will be lost with all the new tlds, which would result a price drop for aftermarket .coms. Indeed, even right now many endusers in Germany for example are very happy with their .de's and are not looking to purchase corresponding .com even if available for handreg, saying nothing about aftermarket purchase. No doubts, some new registrants of .web or .shop etc. will do the same

More globally:

A new generation, who are young, active social networks users, and are not actively using email (if using at all), will continue to grow. Starting their businesses, they would not think of purchasing a "quality" domain... Some will be happy with just ISP/gmail/hotmail-based email and facebook/etc. page promoting their business.

Also, new technologies (will keyboards and computers as we know them last forever?) together with microsoft/google $$$ will make the domain names less relevant. Indeed, both microsoft being authors of internet explorer browser and google being authors of google chrome will remove address bar from their browsers someday. Why not? "Dear users, please use a search string powered by MSN or Google for whatever input you wish to make, and we will show you the most relevant suggestions". They have enough $$$ to win all lawsuits such a behavior may result.

IMHO, all this makes domaining perspectives too questionable in a long run...

Finally, one should not forget about economic collapses scenarios as USD pyramid will not last forever, and Planet X may appear someday causing global earth changes, etc, etc, etc

Just my 2c

 

[mjnels]

damn, what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

 

[DnEbook]

damn, what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

gotta get lucky sometimes !

 

[equity78]

I think we ask these questions a lot and it can become too broad a question, there are many parts to this question.

Mjnels I agree and was writing this last year and a lot of people said oh you are crazy, look I have been trading stocks since I was 16, dilution is dilution, it does not always wipe out values, but it does affect them in a negative way. In the post I wrote last year, I likened it to a small town that has MJ's restaurant as the king, there are 1000 people in town and MJ's is the place no other restaurant, they serve 1000 meals a night and business is good. Now here comes Noobs Tacos, now right away people know that a taco stand is not as good as MJ's. But some people will try it out, the first night 60 people try it out, MJ's served 60 less meals and made less money, now MJ's is not going out of business and will still do well, just not as well when they were the only game in town.

The second point someone else made is true about young people, DOT COM is not their King, so these 14 to 18 years olds will be 24 to 28 in ten years, they may do some things differently in the start ups they create. Who knows ?

I believe in domains as the best addressing system out there and like SDS said vital to branding and marketing, the point is people just might not pay as much, they will still sell but maybe someone says wow you sold a domain for $50,000 in 2021 that's unbelievable.

The point is to know history, focus on today with an eye on tomorrow and position yourself accordingly.

 

[PeppyNames]

Wow, I love this thread. The major thing to watch out will be presence of internet giants in the game of new gTLDs like Google & Microsoft. They have the capacity to move people to newer systems to promote their own businesses. Obviously everything is uncertain in market conditions but it will depend on how these things are put in the market and how people adapt to it.

Currently, Altavista is going to expire because Google came with a search technology and features which took world by surprise & the same Google failed with many products like buzz, waves and somewhat even Google Plus. It all depends on how people will adapt?

"Yesterday is History, Tomorrow a Mystery, Today is a Gift, Thats why it's called the Present"

 

[oldtimer]

.... what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

Indeed there are a lot of thoughtful posts so far, perhaps domainers have realized that for better or worse they are all in this game together.