What is your forecast for the next couple of years when it comes to domaining.

[oldtimer]

What is your forecast for the next couple of years for domaining and what are you doing to adjust to the new landscape of the domain Industry.

It used to be that first tire .com domains were fetching six or even seven figure prices on a regular basis, even second and third tier domains in .com were selling for a hefty sum up to just a couple of years ago. But now it seems like the million dollar sales are all but gone and the average selling price for .coms has fallen to the low to medium four figures.

In my opinion .com is always going to remain popular and most people are probably going to prefer it over all the other alternatives, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average price for keyword .com domains dropping down to the three figure range in the near future especially if some of the big companies start giving away free domains (in their New gTLDs) to their customers and clients as a means of attracting and keeping more visitors.

Even the .com traffic domains that have enjoyed a steady level of traffic in the past might lose some of their value as people start typing in New gTLD combinations out of curiosity instead of the many popular keywords in .com that they have been used to typing before.

At this time I have come to believe that one of the domaining categories that has the best chances going forward even in the new landscape of the domain Industry is Brandable domains especially those that are suitable for broad use and that can be sold in the low to medium four figures.

IMO

What is you forecast for the next couple of years.

 

[Jasonn]

i think there will be a few big sales for the new gtld domains but not many and we won't see them gain much traction in the first couple of years despite what some say. i don't see .com sales slowing down much if at all. i can't see giving away domains changing anything either. those who want free domains (with a catch im sure) weren't going to buy domains on the aftermarket anyways. for myself, i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

 

[oldtimer]

i don't see .com sales slowing down much if at all.

You are right the total number of .com sales might stay the same or might even increase as more people and businesses come online, but in my opinion the average prices for .com will continue to go down (even for the New gTLDs too after seeing a few high profile sales at the beginning as you pointed out).

i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

That's what I am planing to do for the most part too, although I like to develop a few of my domains somewhere along the way.

 

[Havela]

I think the new gTLDs - together with apps - will change the Internet landscape completely. Yes, I am aware that so far new gTLD launches have failed, but I do not think the past can be used to shed light on the future in this case.

The new gTLDs, due to sheer mass alone, will dissolve the .com hegemony, especially when assisted by apps, continuous search engine algorithm updates and other new technology. Future browsers will not facilitate type-ins and search engines will place less and less focus on extension and more and more on content. Perhaps, in a few years, extensions will not even be visible, at least not in the way we are used to seeing them today.

We should keep in mind that there is no desire in the general population, or on the part of the authorities, to maintain the current situation where some people get rich due to shortage of a particular good. Many people consider this unjust riches. Hence, people will embrace change in this area.

The reason why new gTLDs have failed so far is simply that the number of extensions has remained limited (except for ccTLDs, which have their international ranking limitations) and hence possible to maintain in easy categories of valuable and worthless. In a few years, that will no longer be the case. It will be impossible to maintain an aristocracy of extensions - let alone an overview of what is out there.

I am not saying this will happen in the next two years, and perhaps, for a time, we will even see people 'flock to what they know', as many domainers are hoping, but in 10 years the landscape will have changed immeasurably and 'domaining' will probably be a thing of the past. That is my prediction.

 

[Kate]

I think that domainers will continue to struggle and as usual, very few will make money.

Sorry Havela, I don't think that the new extensions will have a huge impact, for many reasons. So many are going to be released at once, that their respective market shares will be tiny, they will be very diluted and almost invisible as a result. Of course, there will be exceptions. Perhaps some geoTLDs. But they will be niche TLDs at best.

It's not 2000 anymore, the rise of ccTLDs has diminished the appeal of generic extensions.
End users outside America are typically only interested in .com + plus their local extension, sometimes .org if they are non-profit.

So oldvintage.cars looks cool on the surface but in practical terms it is like advertising in the middle of the desert. Until an extension is used massively it remains a vanity item. Don't underestimate the importance of domain names in branding and advertising. Mark my words

Conclusion: I do not anticipate a shift in the trends that already exist.

The trends will not be dictated by domainers anyway, but there is something you can do, it is to decide where your position in the food chain is going to be.

 

[Name Trader]

@Havela - When do you get out? In 9.5 years time?

 

[Havela]

@ sdsinc - no reason to be sorry I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but - obviously - that is not what I think will happen.

@Havela - When do you get out? In 9.5 years time?

Yeah, something like that I'll stay in as long as I think there's money to be made and I have fun. And domaining is a lot of fun - it's just that I think this industry has passed its peak. Technology has caught up with it.

 

[oldtimer]

it's just that I think this industry has passed its peak. Technology has caught up with it.

Perhaps the domain Industry has passed it’s peak as far as prices, but don’t write off the domain names themselves so fast, even with apps and all the other new technologies businesses are still going to need to have a name, and that’s beside the point of how people arrive at their website. IMO

 

[mjnels]

i think Havela summed it up correctly. gTLD's will win out in the end.

the sheer volume will make them "normal"

 

[oldtimer]

... gTLD's will win out in the end.

the sheer volume will make them "normal"

You might be right, on the other hand you might be wrong

But one thing is for sure there won’t really be any winners as far as domainers are concerned once domain prices (for all extensions old and new) start getting lower and lower. In another words no one will see any need to pay anything above registration fee (or the initial auction fee) once the scarcity of domains is no longer a factor. IMO

 

[mjnels]

But one thing is for sure there won’t really be any winners as far as domainers are concerned once domain prices (for all extensions old and new) start getting lower and lower. In another words no one will see any need to pay anything above registration fee (or the initial auction fee) once the scarcity of domains is no longer a factor. IMO

yep and this is why nobody wants to talk about it. because you basically have to admit that yes, things will probably change due to the sheer volume but good luck domaining in gtlds when the scarcity is so low.

.com will still get sales of course.. but if people are thinking absolutely nothing will change in terms of pricing they're in for a rude awakening.

also, people are talking like it matters that they all will dilute each other... unless you're invested in one of these gTLD's you shouldnt be looking at it from that angle. you should be looking at it from the angle that it will dilute .com prices somewhat. 1 termite isnt going to destroy your home but 2,000 and more marching toward your house will. people should stop looking at it from the angle that no *1 of them* will gain traction.. that isnt even important.

how much will it dilute .com prices? i dont know. but saying ZERO and that .com will continue to go up in value.. LOL dream on peoples.

 

[alien51]

for myself, i plan to continue on as i have been for the past few years, keep building my portfolio of .com domains and keep on selling.

Unfortunately, that statement above is just a philosophy. It is not a business model.

You need to come up with a serious cash flow plan. Or else domaining will cause you to go bankrupt. Most domainers' portfolio, are illiquid assets (more like liabilities to many others), and they bleed money every year due to renewals.

 

[Jawed]

The question is about the next couple of years. I don’t see any forceful factors that may change the domaining trends. I don’t see any future for new gTLDs from a domainer’s perspective.

.com will keep losing its ground due to the popularity of ccTLDs, in my opinion. Nevertheless, there is nothing in the market that can replace .com in foreseeable future.

Last but not least, as said above, there is no good news for domainers, most of them will struggle and a very few will make any reasonable income.

 

[DnEbook]

It is highly possible that domainers have cut their own throats by holding out for big bucks with their names, on the other hand .com is fully entrenched at the moment and will always have a presence. I dont think .sony or .cannon are much of a threat but ones like .music surely will gain some ground. My prediction is you will do ok if you are not too greedy, also consider trying to develop some of your names

 

[tonyk2000]

re

An interesting question...

Limiting my thoughts to current "model":

- Almost all new tlds will fail. Only those who managed to reach a deal with GoDaddy and major EU-based registrars will survive. What tlds will GoDaddy elect to promote - nobody knows... A notable exception would be tlds won by google for example, should they elect to offer domains in their ".sometld" for free to lets say all gmail users with corresponding mailbox: [email protected] will receive corresponding user.sometld domain for free but will have to host their website with google. Google already has access to many private business documents through "google docs" etc., so the next step should be accessing corporate websites from inside and offering a technology providing an user with an opportunity to voluntary let google in.

- Endusers will be lost with all the new tlds, which would result a price drop for aftermarket .coms. Indeed, even right now many endusers in Germany for example are very happy with their .de's and are not looking to purchase corresponding .com even if available for handreg, saying nothing about aftermarket purchase. No doubts, some new registrants of .web or .shop etc. will do the same

More globally:

A new generation, who are young, active social networks users, and are not actively using email (if using at all), will continue to grow. Starting their businesses, they would not think of purchasing a "quality" domain... Some will be happy with just ISP/gmail/hotmail-based email and facebook/etc. page promoting their business.

Also, new technologies (will keyboards and computers as we know them last forever?) together with microsoft/google $$$ will make the domain names less relevant. Indeed, both microsoft being authors of internet explorer browser and google being authors of google chrome will remove address bar from their browsers someday. Why not? "Dear users, please use a search string powered by MSN or Google for whatever input you wish to make, and we will show you the most relevant suggestions". They have enough $$$ to win all lawsuits such a behavior may result.

IMHO, all this makes domaining perspectives too questionable in a long run...

Finally, one should not forget about economic collapses scenarios as USD pyramid will not last forever, and Planet X may appear someday causing global earth changes, etc, etc, etc

Just my 2c

 

[mjnels]

damn, what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

 

[DnEbook]

damn, what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

gotta get lucky sometimes !

 

[equity78]

I think we ask these questions a lot and it can become too broad a question, there are many parts to this question.

Mjnels I agree and was writing this last year and a lot of people said oh you are crazy, look I have been trading stocks since I was 16, dilution is dilution, it does not always wipe out values, but it does affect them in a negative way. In the post I wrote last year, I likened it to a small town that has MJ's restaurant as the king, there are 1000 people in town and MJ's is the place no other restaurant, they serve 1000 meals a night and business is good. Now here comes Noobs Tacos, now right away people know that a taco stand is not as good as MJ's. But some people will try it out, the first night 60 people try it out, MJ's served 60 less meals and made less money, now MJ's is not going out of business and will still do well, just not as well when they were the only game in town.

The second point someone else made is true about young people, DOT COM is not their King, so these 14 to 18 years olds will be 24 to 28 in ten years, they may do some things differently in the start ups they create. Who knows ?

I believe in domains as the best addressing system out there and like SDS said vital to branding and marketing, the point is people just might not pay as much, they will still sell but maybe someone says wow you sold a domain for $50,000 in 2021 that's unbelievable.

The point is to know history, focus on today with an eye on tomorrow and position yourself accordingly.

 

[PeppyNames]

Wow, I love this thread. The major thing to watch out will be presence of internet giants in the game of new gTLDs like Google & Microsoft. They have the capacity to move people to newer systems to promote their own businesses. Obviously everything is uncertain in market conditions but it will depend on how these things are put in the market and how people adapt to it.

Currently, Altavista is going to expire because Google came with a search technology and features which took world by surprise & the same Google failed with many products like buzz, waves and somewhat even Google Plus. It all depends on how people will adapt?

"Yesterday is History, Tomorrow a Mystery, Today is a Gift, Thats why it's called the Present"

 

[oldtimer]

.... what happened.. this thread actually has some thoughtful posts beyond the usual sound bites.

Indeed there are a lot of thoughtful posts so far, perhaps domainers have realized that for better or worse they are all in this game together.

 

[ecalc]

The US economy is poised for growth and that's a necessary condition for a healthy domain aftermarket. Headwinds persist - tight credit, expanding nanny state and Google TAC chokehold. Macro tailwinds include soaring shale production and a manufacturing renaissance. Cash ran to bedsprings and distressed equities/real estate for the last 5 years. If and when consumers start feeling it in both their brokerage statements and Zestimates, wallets will open for non-essentials like liquid domains - dot com (global) & ccTLD (local). Dot ketchup etc is a sideshow.

 

[Weber]

If you haven't seen the full list and status of the coming tsusami, here's the link, below.
By the way, some of the major domain sales sites where you might still currently have your dot coms for sale, have been preaching the coming extinction of dot com. Would you buy from a dealer that's bad mouthing the car he's trying to sell to you?

https://gtldresult.icann.org/application-result/applicationstatus/viewstatus

 

[accent]

OK I'll take the other side - this sounds too much like a funeral around here.

Domainer.name got the first point - Amazon and Google can push everybody else off the TLDs they want, and between them they want the best ones. All of them, except geos. Amazon wants to close their registrys. - Look at it like an auction for cell phone bandwidth, not a domain play at all. At the moment we don't know if closed registrys will be allowed - if they are then a lot of "dilution" will never happen.

As someone else pointed out, free websites from Google will not excite potential buyers of aftermarket domains. Nor will they flood the market, many free alternatives exist now.

TheDomains posted a list of new gTLD pre-orders. .Web was first, then .Shop. No surprise there. At number 5 was .Hotel, the first on the list that Google or Amazon do not want. .Hotel had 24% of the pre-registrations that .Web had.

The number 11 gTLD had 9% of .Web, and from there they quickly fell to 5%, which was pretty standard for all the rest - undoubtedly defensive pre-regs of every tld. There just are not very many three, four and five letter words that would make good extensions. Google gets the good ones, the rest (except maybe geos) are micro-markets, totally insignificant to .Com.

City TLDs have a narrow market and may do OK, but if you have to advertise to everybody - you can't do it sustainably. That is why no existing TLD except .Co is spending much money on promotion. And Co may have other sources for money.

Ecalc is right, the reason domain prices are down is the world economy.

Not scientific, but there seems to be many new domainers showing up here at NP. Not long ago all the new posts here were sales threads, not now. The new gTLDs will call a lot of attention to domain names. Perhaps those new domainers will find that they want Coms after they take some losses on .Whatever... I actually think this is likely.


I don't know about this talk of domains going obsolete. Could happen, I guess, but I see no sign of it. People don't replace something they are used to unless the alternative is better, not just different. And it has to be a lot better to get noticed - 10 times better is what I've heard.

---------- Post added at 01:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:36 AM ----------

Wewber - Don't put much faith in statements made by those who want to sell services to the TLD registrys. Those who sold picks and shovels encouraged everyone to search for gold.

 

[GiftedDomains]

What is your forecast for the next couple of years when it comes to domaining.

1) The prices for established TLDs (with com being the most imporant) will decrease, but not because of the power of the new TLDs, but because the majority of domainers (just like stocktraders) are always driven by herd instinct and most will probably hit the panic button and unload their portfolios during the time these TLDs are launched, leading to endless number of good and bad domains for sale for cheap prices and at the same time very few reseller buyers willing to invest money in such a situation. This will also affect the enduser market (not to the extent it will affect the reseller market but it will) because more and more people will contact them (due to lack of liquidity in reseller market) and they will have more alternatives and better options to chose from and lower the price. So it will probably be a self destructing lemming kind of behaviour of domainers for no reason, but simply because everyone does it.

2) With search engine algorithms getting smarter and smarter each day, the importance of having the exact keyword in the domain name will be totally neglectable in few years and additionaly the fact that all these new TLDs are coming will increase the confusion and the importance and power of having a distinguishable and memorable brand name (together with the trusted and known extension .com) which people can instantly remember and trust at the same time and which will stand out from the crowd, therefore i believe the market for brandable .com names will be the one to look at (if you want to look at anything at all in the future

3) The very strong triple-A keyword domains will probably remain value, but lesser quality keyword domains will lose huge part of their value. It will be a market of quality, not quantity. Forget unpronounceable and ugly LLLL.coms, long keyword domains with 3 or 4 words (and even 2 word), etc. in the future. Many will drop like hot potatoes.

4) I don't think an alternative technology to the current domain name system will come anytime soon and that the word after the DOT won't be important. The fact that all these new TLDs are coming is a good sign that this system will remain the only alternative for a while and that the extension is still important. Of course we will see changes and innovations, but the basic and fundamental system will remain for at least the next decade IMO.

5) I don't believe in the promotional capabilities of microsoft, etc. They suck in promotion. Best example is the disastrous promo of the new xbox one which led to a storm of indignation and hate towards them and they had to back off and change a lot of their plans and they are still hated for what they wanted to do (forcing people to stay connected to internet, camera being always on, DRM policy, etc.etc.). I also don't believe in the promotional power of godaddy. They are trying since years with .us for instance, and still americans think .com is their ccTLD and there is no significant increase of interest in .us (This is by the way also a good example why i believe in the fail of the new extensions, specially in USA).

 

[Kate]

yep and this is why nobody wants to talk about it. because you basically have to admit that yes, things will probably change due to the sheer volume but good luck domaining in gtlds when the scarcity is so low.

There is no scarcity of domain names. The supply is virtually infinite, with the extensions that already exist. That's why .com has more than 100 millions regs and can accommodate even more.
There is a scarcity of quality, because each domain name is obviously unique. For example there is only one sex.com or car.com.
New extensions are not the solution, unless you consider that sex.sex or sex.porn is as good as the .com counterpart.

If you haven't seen the full list and status of the coming tsusami, here's the link, below.

Since 2000, we have had less than 20 new generic TLDs. If you ask random people to quote just a few, they will be at a loss. Perhaps some will know about .info.

Now run the same survey again when we have 2000+ TLDs (soon). People will know about .com and their ccTLD, probably very little about the rest.
Remember that people don't care, and never asked for those TLDs. When you make a new TLD available to them they shun it, it's the speculators and TM holders who buy them.
.xxx is a good example.
The others are more like background noise as well.


I think that the long-term prospects for domaining are good, but the reseller market will continue to suffer.
Domaining has become very competitive. Gone are the days when you could handreg nice dropping domains. Now you have to acquire them at the auctions or direct from the owners.
But domainers, especially the newcomers, tend to overestimate the size of the market for domain names - it is a small industry after all. Few people will every buy a domain name on the aftermarket.
Only the strong (and well funded) will survive.