What is your forecast for the next couple of years when it comes to domaining.

[oldtimer]

What is your forecast for the next couple of years for domaining and what are you doing to adjust to the new landscape of the domain Industry.

It used to be that first tire .com domains were fetching six or even seven figure prices on a regular basis, even second and third tier domains in .com were selling for a hefty sum up to just a couple of years ago. But now it seems like the million dollar sales are all but gone and the average selling price for .coms has fallen to the low to medium four figures.

In my opinion .com is always going to remain popular and most people are probably going to prefer it over all the other alternatives, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average price for keyword .com domains dropping down to the three figure range in the near future especially if some of the big companies start giving away free domains (in their New gTLDs) to their customers and clients as a means of attracting and keeping more visitors.

Even the .com traffic domains that have enjoyed a steady level of traffic in the past might lose some of their value as people start typing in New gTLD combinations out of curiosity instead of the many popular keywords in .com that they have been used to typing before.

At this time I have come to believe that one of the domaining categories that has the best chances going forward even in the new landscape of the domain Industry is Brandable domains especially those that are suitable for broad use and that can be sold in the low to medium four figures.

IMO

What is you forecast for the next couple of years.

 

[.NJ]

Since 2000, we have had less than 20 new generic TLDs. If you ask random people to quote just a few, they will be at a loss. Perhaps some will know about .info.

This is right on and sums up most in a nutshell.

Everyone gets all hyped up about all the new "gtld's" and the all the news that is coming out about them.

But most never look outside the box and realize where 99% of those "news" sources are originating from (domianer feeds).

I have already tested this theory on my own more then once:

I asked a series of everyday people to include large and small businesses.

When asked about all the "new" extensions that will soon be available and what their thoughts were.

98% said, "you mean a new .com?"

People are creatures of habit. And in end-user land (which matters the most) they will always resort to what they know.

Just my 2 cents here.

 

[Havela]

New extensions are not the solution, unless you consider that sex.sex or sex.porn is as good as the .com counterpart.

You see, that way of thinking is exactly what I think will slowly vanish. I think the concept of 'quality extensions' will soon be a thing of the past. Yes, there will still be a focus on quality names, but those names will not have to be on a 'quality' extension. I'm not even sure that we will be able to see extensions when we search for products in the future. Yes, the technology will probably still be there backend, but perhaps not for visitors to see.

Nobody, except for domainers, wants to maintain the current focus on quality vs non-quality extensions, because it creates an artificial need that stems from the time when the only available extension was .com and nobody thought anything else would ever be necessary. Technology has evolved past that now, and the only thing left is to trigger people's minds to follow. There is no need to limit extensions or the possibility to hand reg quality names anymore. And that is actually a good thing for endusers, just not for domainers.

If I am going to speculate freely, I would venture a guess that there could still be a market for high-quality brandable names, probably together with cool logos and cutting-edge design. In the future everybody will be able to set up their own fully functional website in 5 minutes. People will also become more and more tech savvy, and we will have to offer something in addition to that. There will always be a market for creativity.

Also, for those of you who haven't read it, read Raymond Hackney's (our 'equity78' ) excellent comments about the younger generation's willingness (or rather lack thereof) to pay for social media on Morgan Linton's blog here.

This also has a bearing on our discussion. Is the future generation willing to pay for expensive domains? They actually expect everything online to be free, and start-ups seem to rather want to register a brandable domain on .me or .io than pay for an 'old-fashioned' EMD .com.

Since 2000, we have had less than 20 new generic TLDs. If you ask random people to quote just a few, they will be at a loss. Perhaps some will know about .info.

Now run the same survey again when we have 2000+ TLDs (soon). People will know about .com and their ccTLD, probably very little about the rest.

Exactly. The focus on extensions will be completely gone. Nobody is going to know about all of them or care about any of them.

There will be no one extension to take the place of .com or compete with .com. That is the whole point. The entire idea that it should be necessary to compete with .com will be gone.

However, this is still some years ahead and .com will continue to have some aftermarket value for a long time, perhaps a very long time.

I am less sure about the other "old" extensions, like .net and .org. I have seen well-known domainers go both ways on this topic. I think I saw Rick Schwartz speculate the other day that maybe the old stepchild extensions could gain traction from the launch of the new gTLDs, whereas Morgan Linton wrote a few weeks back that in his opinion .net and .org had become stale and were not cool enough for start-ups. I really think it is hard to speculate what will happen here, but personally I would be careful about stocking up on these extensions in the next couple of years.

 

[south]

I predict Moniker will be a repeat of RegisterFly.

 

[mjnels]

There is no scarcity of domain names. The supply is virtually infinite, with the extensions that already exist. That's why .com has more than 100 millions regs and can accommodate even more.
There is a scarcity of quality, because each domain name is obviously unique. For example there is only one sex.com or car.com.
New extensions are not the solution, unless you consider that sex.sex or sex.porn is as good as the .com counterpart.

well i mean good domains. the new good... the "new domain hacks" will be new tlds...

no sex.sex and sex.porn are NOT really good domain hacks.

but anal.sex and midget.porn are and there will be 1,000 places you can stick the dot in the middle now. ok im gonna go wash my hands..

---------- Post added at 07:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:17 AM ----------

I think we ask these questions a lot and it can become too broad a question, there are many parts to this question.

Mjnels I agree and was writing this last year and a lot of people said oh you are crazy, look I have been trading stocks since I was 16, dilution is dilution, it does not always wipe out values, but it does affect them in a negative way. In the post I wrote last year, I likened it to a small town that has MJ's restaurant as the king, there are 1000 people in town and MJ's is the place no other restaurant, they serve 1000 meals a night and business is good. Now here comes Noobs Tacos, now right away people know that a taco stand is not as good as MJ's. But some people will try it out, the first night 60 people try it out, MJ's served 60 less meals and made less money, now MJ's is not going out of business and will still do well, just not as well when they were the only game in town.

The second point someone else made is true about young people, DOT COM is not their King, so these 14 to 18 years olds will be 24 to 28 in ten years, they may do some things differently in the start ups they create. Who knows ?

I believe in domains as the best addressing system out there and like SDS said vital to branding and marketing, the point is people just might not pay as much, they will still sell but maybe someone says wow you sold a domain for $50,000 in 2021 that's unbelievable.

The point is to know history, focus on today with an eye on tomorrow and position yourself accordingly.

wow you reading my mind? that was my next analogy for people thinking this is just .mobi and .biz all over again..

so 10 restaurants set up shop in my neighborhood... they failed to become the "most popular"

then 2,000 businesses set up shop in my neighborhood.. they still failed to become more popular than my store.

you sayin NOBODY stepped foot in the other business though? unlikely.

thats dilution. you aint the only show in town forever son..

 

[alien51]

but anal.sex and midget.porn are and there will be 1,000 places you can stick the dot in the middle now.

Those kind of domain/TLD combinations, are only targetting Search Engines.

No one will remember typing the "dot" in-between the keywords. They will type "midget porn". And if search engine algos are really intelligent these days, they will dump domains that are worthless in terms of content.

 

[mjnels]

Those kind of domain/TLD combinations, are only targetting Search Engines.

No one will remember typing the "dot" in-between the keywords. They will type "midget porn". And if search engine algos are really intelligent these days, they will dump domains that are worthless in terms of content.

really? does a dot in the middle of words make people go into a trance or something?

how do people remember phone numbers? physical addresses... was that 1234 Broadway Ave in san diego or nyc?

or was that Broadway Circle in the suburban neighborhood of Nowhereville, nebraska....

hmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[GiftedDomains]

http://www.name.com/domains/fail

anal.fail is not that bad imo.
for people who always hit the wrong hole or something

http://www.enomcentral.com/domains/sucks-domain-registration

this one is promising too

these two are the only extensions i like from the upcoming tlds.
i will probably preorder few, like domaining.sucks

 

[oldtimer]

Would you buy from a dealer that's bad mouthing the car he's trying to sell to you?

I don’t think anyone is intentionally trying to bad mouth the domain market, but to downplay the importance of all the changes that are happening around us is only going to serve those who want to unload their domains on other domainers and leave them holding the bag.

No one is trying to ruin the end-user market and I don’t believe that that market is going to be affected by what is being said on a domainer’s forum, but if we are going to see some major changes in end-user habits as far as sales, type-ins, and search then we will be fools if we don’t discuss all the different scenarios that might take place in the near future (good and bad) so that we can be better prepared to deal with them if they happen.

The truth of the matter is no one really knows for sure how things are going to unfold in the next few years and thus logic says that we should consider all the different possibilities equally. There is a good chance that ,com (and the major ccTLDs) could remain king and might even become more cherished than before due to the confusion that couple of thousand of New gTLDs are going to create for the general public. On the other hand this is a whole new game that we have never seen before because now you have major companies and cities pushing their own gTLDs and that is going to make things a lot different than the TLDs that have been launched in the past few years which for the most part went unnoticed by the general public.

Some of the New gTLDs are certainly going to get the public attention since there are major brands that are going to promote them, perhaps they might even put their New gTLDs smack in the middle of their homepage for everyone to see and by the next day people are going to learn all about these new options and choices that they have.

Also keep in mind that even if one percent of the New gTLDs make it to the top that is going to be around 20 strong extensions that people might start gravitating to, and considering that some of those gTLDs might be given to people for free that might be enough to bring about some major changes. If domaining is to survive through all these changes then all the different possibilities must be discussed and analyzed without biased or prejudice.

IMO

 

[Jasonn]

yep and this is why nobody wants to talk about it. because you basically have to admit that yes, things will probably change due to the sheer volume but good luck domaining in gtlds when the scarcity is so low.

.com will still get sales of course.. but if people are thinking absolutely nothing will change in terms of pricing they're in for a rude awakening.

also, people are talking like it matters that they all will dilute each other... unless you're invested in one of these gTLD's you shouldnt be looking at it from that angle. you should be looking at it from the angle that it will dilute .com prices somewhat. 1 termite isnt going to destroy your home but 2,000 and more marching toward your house will. people should stop looking at it from the angle that no *1 of them* will gain traction.. that isnt even important.

how much will it dilute .com prices? i dont know. but saying ZERO and that .com will continue to go up in value.. LOL dream on peoples.

you could argue that in new landscape of these gtld domains .com's will be the only domains with any real value. since there will 100's of thousands of possible domain hacks (or what we currently call domain hacks, soon they will just be domains) to choose from they become virtually worthless aside from a few 'premium' ones. maybe its my bias but i just think those who would be willing to use a .biz, .info, .me. etc will be the people who will be more willing to purchase a gtld. if someone wants a .com for their business now, will they suddenly want a new gtld next year? i doubt it. i could see people opting for a new gtld instead of biz, net or org though if the .com is out of reach.

and what about gtld's that don't manage to attract more than a few thousand users..will these ones shut down and stop resolving? how many domains does a gtld need to sell to stay alive?

---------- Post added at 11:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 AM ----------

Those kind of domain/TLD combinations, are only targetting Search Engines.

No one will remember typing the "dot" in-between the keywords. They will type "midget porn". And if search engine algos are really intelligent these days, they will dump domains that are worthless in terms of content.

well currently google views typing a "." as a space. anyways.

 

[mjnels]

and what about gtld's that don't manage to attract more than a few thousand users..will these ones shut down and stop resolving? how many domains does a gtld need to sell to stay alive?

yea, .travel from what i remember was in danger of shutting down due to financials some years ago... im quoting hearsay now but if this was even anywhere close to true with a tld like that it does make you wonder about .ninja

probably the cost will get cheaper to run one of these registries and betcha the application fee will be lower soon because that will be the way for icann to make more money when the best .keywords are gone. we'll see i guess

 

[alien51]

how do people remember phone numbers? physical addresses... was that 1234 Broadway Ave in san diego or nyc?

or was that Broadway Circle in the suburban neighborhood of Nowhereville, nebraska....

If you say "remember", that means people already knew you before they got lost.

So that means, for an End-User to take midget.porn, he needs to SPEND a MASSIVE amount of marketing dollars to stick that "midget DOT porn" brand (emphasis on the dot) into their brains and help them remember.

UNFORTUNATELY, human brains are mostly defective in remembering details. Most likely than not, they will FORGET to type the DOT in midget.porn. As a result, you will then be at the mercy of the search engines to rank you on top VERSUS some guy who may also have built an empire using MidgetPorn.com.

 

[Havela]

Most likely than not, they will FORGET to type the DOT in midget.porn. As a result, you will then be at the mercy of the search engines to rank you on top VERSUS some guy who may also have built an empire using MidgetPorn.com.

Except, nobody uses type-ins anymore. And, probably, browsers will evolve and read midget.porn as "midget porn" and return the website with the best content (whatever that would be in that particular area, I shudder to think) on top.

 

[oldtimer]

Please refrain from using any specific group of people (such as the Little people) in New gTLD combinations that might not be considered appropriate under ICANN rules.












-

 

[alien51]

Except, nobody uses type-ins anymore. And, probably, browsers will evolve and read midget.porn as "midget porn" and return the website with the best content (whatever that would be in that particular area, I shudder to think) on top.

Or search engines will need to start PARSING the "dot" character and check first if the word that comes AFTER it, is a valid domain extension.

Either way, you would have to FORCE humans to remember all the various TLDs. Which means, they SHOULD have liked your site in the first place, before they would even care remembering it.

In the end, humans will still GRAVITATE into searching using phrases.

 

[bmugford]

Please refrain from using any specific group of people (such the Little people) in New gTLD combinations that might not be considered appropriate under ICANN rules.

1.) Can you please point out what ICANN rules you are referring to?

2.) In general the new extensions are being used as a way to separate people into groups. There are groups for everything from artists to plumbers to gay people.
What is offensive to one person might not be offensive to another. That is subjective.

Brad

 

[oldtimer]

Or search engines will need to start PARSING the "dot" character and check first if the word that comes AFTER it, is a valid domain extension.

Either way, you would have to FORCE humans to remember all the various TLDs. Which means, they SHOULD have liked your site in the first place, before they would even care remembering it.

In the end, humans will still GRAVITATE into searching using phrases.

Right now there are only a limited number of New gTLDs that are going to actually go live, but in five years there might be several thousands of them (specially once the application fees are reduced and the backend operations are streamlined and are made more affordable) and by then search engines themselves might become obsolete if people start typing in the combinations of left and right of the dot keywords that match what they are looking for. IMO

1.) Can you please point out what ICANN rules you are referring to?

2.) In general the new extensions are being used as a way to separate people into groups. There are groups for everything from artists to plumbers to gay people.
What is offensive to one person might not be offensive to another. That is subjective.

Brad

As far as I know the registries and registrars are required by ICANN to hold back certain combinations that target a group of people in a negative or derogatory manner based on their race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, and a few other factors that might culturally and socially be offensive and demeaning to certain people. (as for the exact wording used by ICANN I guess it takes some research to find it).

 

[bmugford]

As far as I know the registries and registrars are required by ICANN to hold back certain combinations that target a group of people in a negative or derogatory manner based on their race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, and a few other factors that might culturally and socially be offensive and demeaning to certain people. (as for the exact wording used by ICANN I guess it takes some research to find it).

I am not aware of that. Considering there are multiple applications for extensions related to race, religion, sexual orientation, etc. that could be used in a derogatory way, I don't see how that is possible.

You have an entire extension like .sucks that is meant to be used in a derogatory manner.

ICANN might have the final say on what extensions get approved, but they do not have the right to legislate free speech and I doubt many registries would go along with that either.

Brad

 

[equity78]

Brad you said What is offensive to one person might not be offensive to another. That is subjective.

That's a bit of a slippery slope right, in this example I think OldTimer was saying that little people find the term "midget" derogatory, if you as a non little person don't find that offensive does that really mean anything ? Because that could get extrapolated into every word out there that is considered a slur, Someone could use a word that is very derogatory to a Gay person, and then say its not offensive to me, its all subjective ? Not sure that would work out too well for the person playing the "It's not offensive to me card"

I will say I don't know exactly where you were going and not sure why Old Timer brought ICANN into it. ICANN oversees .com and MidgetPorn is registered, I doubt Midget.porn will be blocked by ICM Registry.

 

[bmugford]

That's a bit of a slippery slope right, in this example I think OldTimer was saying that little people find the term "midget" derogatory, if you as a non little person don't find that offensive does that really mean anything ? Because that could get extrapolated into every word out there that is considered a slur, Someone could use a word that is very derogatory to a Gay person, and then say its not offensive to me, its all subjective ? Not sure that would work out too well for the person playing the "It's not offensive to me card"

Something being offensive is subjective. There are people and groups out there who have different points of views.

Should an anti-gay group be the reason .gay is not approved, because they find it "offensive"?
If approved should that group be blocked from registering domains because others find it "offensive"?

Free speech is not just limited to the people you agree with.

ICANN is opening up Pandora's Box is they are trying to regulate free speech with the new gTLD program.

Brad

 

[oldtimer]

I am not aware of that. Considering there are multiple applications for extensions related to race, religion, sexual orientation, etc. that could be used in a derogatory way, I don't see how that is possible.

You have an entire extension like .sucks that is meant to be used in a derogatory manner.

ICANN might have the final say on what extensions get approved, but they do not have the right to legislate free speech and I doubt many registries would go along with that either.

Brad

Now as far as the gTLD itself is concerned there are already certain limitation as far as what is appropriate to go live (GAC and the IO are going to see to that for sure), but here I am talking about what’s going to be on the left of the dot for the gTLDs that are going to get approved, for example you might be able to register CertainCompany.Sucks , but I doubt that you’ll be allowed to register CertainGroupOfPeople.Sucks and even if the registration goes through by chance at first it would most likely get canceled later on.

IMO

GAC: Government Advisory Committee
IO: Independent Objector

 

[kosvam]

Google has invested lot of money on the new tlds, and - to me - Google is a major player on if the new tlds will succeed or not.

However, I don't believe people will easily get that kosvam.here might be an url. Only if www. subdomain comes back to the game - www.kosvam.here makes more sense...
Ok, maybe in the future there won't be any need to type the url; I have noticed many not doing that already. But still people will need to communicate the short way, that's why we skip the .com when we are talking. We say youtube, namepros...etc. So, adding an extension will make things more complicated, and that won't be welcome.

 

[equity78]

Pandora's box is wide open.

 

[JB Lions]

It'll probably be about the same.

New gTLDs will be a lot of failure.

No real market for them, is the short answer why they will fail.

Since there will be so many of them, you can expect low reg numbers. Won't be a lot of development, meaning most normal people will never know they even exist. Will be a lot of confusion. It's easier to get people to remember one thing, what comes before the .com, then 2 things, what comes before and after the .

All you have to do is look at the reg numbers for .co and .me, knowing they had the spotlight all to themselves. So I expect the reg numbers for these new ones to be less than that, with the exception of maybe a mainstream one like .web.

All stuff already gone thru is previous threads, which have more info, links, reasons why it will fail. No real market.

 

[equity78]

Well the word fail might also be subjective JB, I do think in most cases they will be a fail for domainers looking to resell for a profit. For Frank and for Donuts they may be a very nice to moderate win.

 

[Kate]

Except, nobody uses type-ins anymore.

Seriously ? I do type-in every day, for example google.com, when I'm not using a bookmark or a shortcut.

What's the point of advertising domain names in print or on TV if nobody uses type-in ?
Of course, there is still type-in, especially when the destination is known.
(hint: this s one reason why winning domain names are those that are memorable, regardless of the right of the dot - obviously some extensions will be more 'memorable' than others).


I know I repeat myself often, to the point of being boring sometimes but outside America ccTLDs are quite pervasive. I can tell you that the 'normal' people around me have zero interest in vanity extensions.
They couldn't care less about .co or .pw, they are gadgets but not for serious projects
The problem is that demand for new extensions (if there is one) is extremely low, I don't see a lot of opportunities for us. Even the registries will struggle to survive (that is already a reality for some).
The trends will fluctuate one way or the other, like the rise of the ccTLDs that is a decade-long process, but nothing happens overnight. There is always time to adjust, so I tend to believe in the second mover advantage for domain speculation purposes.