WARNING FOR THE NEWBIES: DO NOT jump on "the next big things"

[italiandragon]

I have been quite ill this past month but everytime I make the effort to catch up with the last news, I keep seeing a new countdown or as some they like to call them "the next BIG THING".

I am sure that I`ll attract a lot of bad replies with this thread from the new BIG THING makers, but a warning for the newbies must be written or this will just become a big BS all together.

I can`t write much so if other people with brain feel like to add serious advices for newbies, please feel free to do so.

In my opinion, everytime people create a new countdown, it all diluites the money going in one and if 2 years ago we had none or just one, now suddenly we are having 20 of them.

I`m sure there are some good but I just noticed L-L-L-L.com after LL-L and L-LL.com while in the mean time L-L-L.com are already feeling the problem.

I`m not trying to pump or dump any specific one but I think we are close to reach a self-destruction of all of them by creating more and more of them.

My opinion is: there is not always "the next big thing" , it took several years for the LLLL.com to finish and now with all what has been said about it, some who missed that one, are creating other trends that are not really there right now.

Be careful, it may be a painful Boomerang.

 

[bricio]

this is really important
i have seen lately some people concerned and writing about this but there wasnt a thread and it was a good idea

as stated in some posts in this section (and maybe in others) newbies must read and learn before spend their money regestering names, i am not talking about short names only but all kind of names, to avoid loss... we know it is difficult hand reg a good name today as most of them are taken, it is not impossible though if you read, learn and know an specific niche very well

my advice to newbies is to read, read, read and ask for advice then take your own conclusions before buying names and be coherent

i wont buy L-L-L-L.com names

BTW, why L-L-L.com names are feeling the problem?

 

[domainator1]

I agree with this post in many ways..

when I was new! (well i still am) but either way 4 months ago i was drop regging llll.nets while I was trying to get llll.coms because I thought they would both have good value? Along with what seemed to be a great domains at the moment lets just say weighusa.com isnt a great one.

Another thing, Dont expect to buy a domain today and sell it for more tommorrow.. I see this all the time people buy domains from me for a great price (as always), but get upset when they cant sell it for 10% more the next day?

If you are new to domaining don't throw your last $40.00 in and expect to get it back.. Always expect the worst!!

With all the help around namepros look for senior members or members with multiple post and great feedback! Most will help you out if they can! And two opinions is always a good idea as well.. The chat room is always open!!

:bingo:

 

[Mark]

Nothing wrong with saying this - Many of us have been saying it for years. BUT - Even You (OP) have probably contributed to this some in many peoples eyes Not all people see value in even LLLL.com's I'm sure - or at least not "ALL" of them. It's still new as far as "Buyouts" go itself.

There is no way to really tell other people what to get into or not ... Some will say "Without risk - there are no rewards" , Others will argue tooth and nail whether this Fad/niche is good or bad to the extent of even fighting amongst themselves.

My best advice is to do your own Research and base any Risks you take on what you can afford to lose. Nothing is set in Granite in any Industry when it comes down to it. Even higher end Seemingly "Generic" domains have been taken away in the past that If someone had suggested to me the incidents were going to happen beforehand - I would have said "No Way ..... That is too Generic to worry about" - Yet , it does happen.

 

[buckshotdots]

Another thing, Dont expect to buy a domain today and sell it for more tommorrow.. I see this all the time people buy domains from me for a great price (as always), but get upset when they cant sell it for 10% more the next day?

:bingo:

I have always said hand regging something today, anticipate holding it for at least 1.5 years. Remember as well the renewal fees as they add up.

Sometimes after 6 months things really pay off (I was at the beginning of L-L-L and had a nice $XXXX enduser sale plus sold some of my inventory for a very nice ROI) but that doesn't happen often.

I like to "think outside the box" as its fun to see where domaining can be taken but with that comes HUGE risk. I would not suggest people use rent money or throw it on the creditcards as the CC card companies are the only ones winning there.

I would recommend spending no more then 10% of your domain money on riskier "outside the box" domains to be safe. Own some in case they jump a lot in value but don't bet the farm.

again, before investing in high risk domains

1-am I willing to hold for at least 1.5 years?
2-can I afford the renewals next year?
3-will I need this money for rent/food soon?

good luck, gary.

 

[VURG]

Gary I would say anticipate 4 years holding and 4 years of renewal fees. 18 months is too short.

With this topic, I see how many people lost money after the CCC.NET domains ran out and I get concerned that in 12 months we may see some upset LLLL.NET buyers who are currently overoptimistic with growth rates.

 

[Keral_Patel]

My opinion is: there is not always "the next big thing" , it took several years for the LLLL.com to finish and now with all what has been said about it, some who missed that one, are creating other trends that are not really there right now.

I agree. Maybe they are feeling they will create another trend like the LLLL

It might go well or it might come down. So it is risky business.

As there is no "Union of Domain name Owners" there is always a risk that someone will pull the chair from below :D

 

[Krossat]

More the speculation more the profits / losses

Larger the Investment, Better the Returns

If a Domain is coming to you Easy (or for less), its either not that good, or it is a long term Investment

 

[-REECE-]

Opportunity is all around us... Sometimes opportunity presents itself in ways we don't expect and oftentimes we fail to capitalize on opportunities that do present themselves.

Every market seems to have a certain degree of hype, a certain degree of skepticism, and a certain degree of reality.

Are you going to listen to them or are you going to make up your own mind?


Is any LLL.com suddenly worth $7000+ today or were these perhaps worth $7000+ in 2004 as well - domainers just didn't realize it yet and were willing to sell LLL.coms for considerable discounts under what the real value endusers placed on these names would later be revealed to be? Let's think about that for a sec... Has the average enduser offer on LLL.coms gone up 15 fold in the last 4 years to match how much reseller prices have increased?


Perhaps every LLLL.com is worth $100 and perhaps the day will soon come when we'll all come to realize how foolish we were to pass up on these LLLL.coms up at $40 lately...


Hindsight is always 20/20. Who knows with 100% certainty what the future holds? That's what gives rise to all these new "the next big things"...

 

[GreenGambler]

Very good warning post Italian, reps added.

I saw the L-L-L-L .com "buyout" thread and thought, how far could this go? And why?

People need to really study up before buying into any fad. Look at the numbers/stats, the letters, the frequency and the overall appeal to an end user.

Don't just reg something because you think you may miss out on the next big countdown. Register a name because you have a purpose for it. Reg it, because you have seem similar sales or flips that tell you it's worth the reg fee, reg it becuase you have development ideas, end users in mind or see great potential.

There are great names within every trend, you just have to pick the right ones, and some trends have far-far fewer great names than others ie: L-L-L-L.com vs. LLLL.net.

As I can see it there are only a few reasons for soo many countdowns and new trends.

1) There are so many new domainers, companies, websites, and people coming onto the internet and into the domain name market everyday that the supply is rapidly being swallowed by the ever growing demand.

2) Domainers both new and experienced, who have invested in a niche that is being sold as "rare", want to perpetuate the rarity of the niche. They hype up the niche, stimulating more registrations in an attempt to eventually have niche completly sold out, thus increasing the value of the names they bought at the start of the pyrimid.

3) People see what happend with the LLL.coms, CCC.coms, LLLL.coms and assume it will happen to every rare niche of domains. They try to reg the best of the best in any rare category of domains they can find or invent. Then they sit back and wait for others to do the same, assuming that it is a mathematical inevitability or a "sure thing".

3) A mix of all of the above.

 

[Keral_Patel]

LLL - 17576
CCC - 46656
LLLL - 456976 - Took a hell of a time and investments
CCCC - 1679616
LLLLL - 11881376


Now See this: :D

L-L-L-L - 456976
LL-LL - 456976
LLL-L - 456976
L-LLL - 456976
L-LL-L - 456976
LL-L-L - 456976
L-L-LL - 456976
C-C-C-C - 1679616
CC-CC - 1679616
C-CCC - 1679616
CCC-C - 1679616
C-CC-C - 1679616
CC-C-C - 1679616
C-C-CC - 1679616

With Numeric countdowns and other TLD countdowns I see it going no where.

I am not pumping up the market as I myself have some 4 letter domains. But if a newbie is reading this then I would say that invest your 50 USD in LLLL.com instead of spending it on reg fees on things that you don't know if they will rise or not. [Newbies] So please no offense to those who are experienced and still feel they wanna invest in other stuff.

 

[GreenGambler]

LLL - 17576
CCC - 46656
LLLL - 456976 - Took a hell of a time and investments
CCCC - 1679616
LLLLL - 11881376


Now See this: :D

L-L-L-L - 456976
LL-LL - 456976
LLL-L - 456976
L-LLL - 456976
L-LL-L - 456976
LL-L-L - 456976
L-L-LL - 456976
C-C-C-C - 1679616
CC-CC - 1679616
C-CCC - 1679616
CCC-C - 1679616
C-CC-C - 1679616
CC-C-C - 1679616
C-C-CC - 1679616

We should take all those, add LL-L, L-LL, N-NN, NN-N, NNNNN, NNNN, LLLL.net, NNNN.net, and maybe a few others.. And put them in order of investment risk..

That might help anyone new to the market who wants to reg into a new niche rather invest in a name on the aftermarket.

IMO I do agree with what Nick said, that it would be alot better to buy one good LLLL.com on the aftermarket than register 6 random L-L-L-L.coms..

______________________

Anyone wanna take a stab at putting all of our short domain niches in order of investment risk, if possible. I've sort of started it. This also shows any newbies just exactly how many "short domain" niches there are.

N = Number
L = Letter
C = Character (either a letter or a number)
c = Constanant Letter
V = Vowell Letter

NN.com
LL.com
CC.com
NNN.com
LLL.com
CCC.com
NNN.net
LLL.net
NNN.org
LLL.org
NNN.info
LLL.info
NNN.biz
LLL.biz
NNN.mobi
LLL.mobi
L-L.com
N-N.com
C-C.com
N-N.net
L-L.net
C-C.net
N-N.org
L-L.org
C-C.org
NNN.us
LLL.us
NNNN.com
LLLL.com
VcVc.com
cVcV.com
cVVc.com
ccVc.com
VVcV.com
cccV.com
Vccc.com
CCCC.com
NNNN.net
LLLL.net
CCCC.net
NN-N.com
N-NN.com
LL-L.com
L-LL.com
C-CC.com
CC-C.com
NNNNN.com
LLLLL.com
cVcVc.com
VcVcV.com
cVVcc.com
ccVVc.com
cVVVc.com
VcccV.com
VccVc.com
VVcVc.com
cccVc.com
VVVcV.com
CCCCC.com
N-N-N-N.com
L-L-L-L.com
NN-NN.com
LL-LL.com
NNN-N.com
LLL-L.com
N-NNN.com
L-LLL.com
N-NN-N.com
L-LL-L.com
NN-N-N.com
LL-L-L.com
N-N-NN.com
L-L-LL.com
C-C-C-C.com
CC-CC.com
C-CCC.com
CCC-C.com
C-CC-C.com
CC-C-C.com
C-C-CC.com

 

[tristanperry]

I agree with you Lorenzo, nice post

It's a bit worrying to see things like L-L-L-L.com countdowns (although that's mainly because I've never been a fan of hyphenated domains).

Whilst I do feel that certain countdowns are worth it (LLLL.net mainly), some domainers need to realise that most of the countdowns here aren't really going to be worth their weight in salt at least for another 3-4 years.

 

[CHILLY]

Look at these two qoutes:

I wouldn't invest in .asia if the .ASIA registry paid me to do it...

Quite honestly, I'd feel very bad offloading LLL.asia on some noob at 2-3 times regfee a few weeks from now knowing full well he'll never see a dime of profit. I refuse to do it, even though I'm fairly certain I could have found a sucker at double regfee pretty easily.

And businesses have to keep buying these new extensions to prevent someone from squatting their mark...

It all seems like one big scam to me, tbh... I'd like to see a bunch of corporations get together and sue ICANN. At the very least, businesses should get their registered trademarks and business names registered for free. Mind you if that were the case these new extensions probably wouldn't be coming out in the first place... There's only so many suckers on domain name forums afterall

If you are new and don't really know your way around, stay open minded & Humble. Listen to both sides of an argument intensely. Supporters & Naysayers on a given subject are both your friends in the process of making a balanced decision. Even if you are passionate about something and have an opinion, if you do not have EXPERIENCE and full knowledge, stay humble and state your opinions in the form of questions as a way to learn.

What can these qoutes teach you?

1. The "possible" reality of "the next big thing"

2. EXPERIENCE How does that person know that they can do that, how the market should work and when to punch and when to let go. Time, experience and knowledge, if you are new you are not going to have any of these so if you are not careful you can easily become one of the SUCKERS.

Look to actions more so than talk.

At the same time, here is another reality:

yvq.com $860 2005-02-09

zqm.com $720 2004-07-27

dzd.com $1,395 2004-09-20

all of these type of names are now mid to high $xxxx or more

Yes, that is great roi but it did take some time.

learn as much as you can and make sure you do not over invest without knowing what you are doing. Start off with what you can afford to loose and leave room for some mistakes. This of course is if you are starting off without alot of money, if you have decent money you can come in at a different angle.

Buying from the secondary market is an art and hand regging a good name is an art, try your best to learn the art and don't let the glitter of it all burn a whole in your pocket.

 

[raredn.com]

Look at these two qoutes:





If you are new and don't really know your way around, stay open minded & Humble. Listen to both sides of an argument intensely. Supporters & Naysayers on a given subject are both your friends in the process of making a balanced decision. Even if you are passionate about something and have an opinion, if you do not have EXPERIENCE and full knowledge, stay humble and state your opinions in the form of questions as a way to learn.

What can these qoutes teach you?

1. The "possible" reality of "the next big thing"

2. EXPERIENCE How does that person know that they can do that, how the market should work and when to punch and when to let go. Time, experience and knowledge, if you are new you are not going to have any of these so if you are not careful you can easily become one of the SUCKERS.

Look to actions more so than talk.

At the same time, here is another reality:

yvq.com $860 2005-02-09

zqm.com $720 2004-07-27

dzd.com $1,395 2004-09-20

all of these type of names are now mid to high $xxxx or more

Yes, that is great roi but it did take some time.

learn as much as you can and make sure you do not over invest without knowing what you are doing. Start off with what you can afford to loose and leave room for some mistakes. This of course is if you are starting off without alot of money, if you have decent money you can come in at a different angle.

Buying from the secondary market is an art and hand regging a good name is an art, try your best to learn the art and don't let the glitter of it all burn a whole in your pocket.

[highlight]Very very well said!![/highlight]

Rep Added

I just had a quick look at the last page of the .asia showcase thread and I saw, universitydegreesonline.asia and hotelbookers.asia proudly displayed. I have no words to describe the lack of intelligence of this .asia thing

Very sad scenario going on I'm afraid with this .asia monster, it's criminal of the .asia registry to steal the money from these dizzy headed noobs


.asia = delusions grandeur

Or a downwards convolution of the senses

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[bricio]

this is one of the best threads here... very wise posts so far

Reece, i agree with your post (#9) when talking about short names (until 5 characters), but i really dont see one only reason to L-L-L-L buyout (this is why Lorenzo started this thread)

...1) There are so many new domainers, companies, websites, and people coming onto the internet and into the domain name market everyday that the supply is rapidly being swallowed by the ever growing demand.

this is the main reason for all these buyouts happened recently

when you buy a name from another domainer or a dropped one in an auction you will pay more than hand reg and of course you need to wait for a good ROI unless you have a bargain
when you are in an buyout process, especially when it is close to this buyout, you can have a very good ROI overnight, lets say 50-100%, what makes easy earn money very fast
those months in 2007 were very special ones but they are rare and wont happen again soon with names have great potential; buyouts can happen but names with potential for the next years are gone (mainly LLLL.com)... unfortunately all these people just new to domaining lose these buyouts (LLLL and L-L-L.com)

the best thing right now for them is to buy where and what they can as there are great names being sold at good prices right now

 

[rkbdomain]

A lot of good points are made here. One I would add is for people to check the state of the market before jumping in, including are there any end-user sales of a domain (like are there any end-user sales of L-L-L-L that do not spell words? Probably not). Also, are there any developed sites? What kinds? What percent are developed? Getting a handle on the current market dynamics is not necessarily going to let you see in to the future, but it's a good first start. Certainly, random L-L-L-L could become the new internet trend in the next five years, every one and their grandmother could be setting up sites that are X-U-Y-P.com and be willing to pay $xxx for these domains. But it's highly unlikely, and you can say that because nobody is paying for these right now.

I "jumped on" the NNNNN.com buyout because I saw a very good current market for these, some nice high-value end-user sales, lots of potential uses (foreign postal codes, mobile phone sites, product related sites), decent traffic, nearly 1/2 of these domains were already developed sites, many in the fast-growing Chinese market, and I saw that Chinese domainers were buying these domains en masse. It is still a risky investment (although one with potential for huge profits), although I think given the market fundamentals and all the possible uses for them they will do well. But the point is that there were valid reasons to make a calculated risk and invest in the buyout, I don't see valid reasons to invest in a lot of the other things people are getting excited about, and I'm not sure if they do as well other than that it is a "buyout". On the other hand, things like LLLL.com's and LLLL.net's do make sense, as they have good fundamentals and are probably a great investment for 10 years from now, and will probably significantly outperform standard investments over this time period. But they are very risky for the short-term, and people should understand that.

 

[thebutler]

Spare cash?

The problem here is that people have seen some other make some nice profit on the LLLL.com buyout and they don't want to miss the boat again.

Unfortunately buyout don't always mean quick cash.

The CCC.net and CCC.info buyouts are good example. In theory they should be worth way more than they currently are but the market has decided otherwise.

 

[trlsker01]

From a not so newbies perspective for those really newby domainers.
I would not invest in just letter domains or numbers domains first off the bat unless money to you is no object!!! I would look for domains with that specific nyche that would be marketable to the "consumers" and "businesses"!!!
Keep this two nyche in mind when regging for your revenue making domain that will be keepers as long as there is a need for that service or nyche and only let go if the right offer for what the domain is worth has been met!!!

Without this "consumers" and "businesses", domains would simply just be worthless!

 

[ecigs.net]

Nobody seems to mention these short domains much (or at least, not in a positive manner):

Double Dash Names

N--N.com 100 possible variations
N--L.com 260 possible variations
L--N.com 260 possible variations
V--V.com (identical) 5 possible variations (6 if you count, "and sometimes 'y' ")
V--V.com (mixed not identical) 20 possible variations
L--L.com 676 possible variations

In total there are 1296 possible variations of C--C.com names.

Everyone seems to hate these double dash domains even though they are exactly as rare as C-C.com names and significantly more rare than LLLL.com.

It would appear that whether or not something is scarce or not does not necessarily seem to make it worth anything (especially if no end user is willing to buy it).