discuss End of Chinese market?

[Flipsbay]

As we all are witnessing price drop of short chinese chips should we assume its the end of chip market or chiness millionairs are playing with us.

My personal thoughts on 4l was it will be stable at 1200$ but it seems i was wrong and it might go all the way down to 800-1000$ even more who knows, but there is a good hope at 800$.

For 5l it seems we have made a very bad investment so far and only chiness millioners can help us get out of it, which they will not do until they see any profit involved, though i fell there could be a price hike at july 2016 and last hope will be nov 2016 by witnessing if 5l chips are being renewed or not.

Any thoughts will be appreciated

Thanks.

 

[Samujjal]

i will hold the best of them..am playing the long time way with domains

 

[domainscp]

I dont think its the end of the chinese market however if your holding non patterned chips right now you should be a little concerned. Names that should have never gone up in the first place seem to be coming back to reality. Where the money will be made in the next couple of months/year will be the patterned names or repeating character names, prices seem to be holding up on those. Whatever niche your buying in spending your money on one really good name is going to be better than buying 5 to 10 average ones in that same niche.

 

[Samujjal]

I dont think its the end of the chinese market however if your holding non patterned chips right now you should be a little concerned. Names that should have never gone up in the first place seem to be coming back to reality. Where the money will be made in the next couple of months/year will be the patterned names or repeating character names, prices seem to be holding up on those. Whatever niche your buying in spending your money on one really good name is going to be better than buying 5 to 10 average ones in that same niche.

i agree with you..

 

[Flipsbay]

Anyone else anything?

 

[joro001]

Anyone else anything?

I think many people are getting too technical about the chinese market, that the xyz floor will be the bottom etc. As I see it this is what happened.

Around October time 2015 prices skyrocketed to $3k a 4l chip. Clearly some big chinese investors decided to cash in and make a fortune and run. I remember a chinese domainer telling me a huge investor sold a ton of them for around $2.5k each in bulk at the time and people were talking about it, why he sold for that price etc.

The market has never really recovered from that point. There have been some big moves up followed by big crashes thereafter. I think many investors lost confidence and belief that we would see the sort of ROI's we saw last year and now we have witnessed a relentless 3 month dump of pretty much all asset classes.

Closely connected to all this is the chinese stock market. In recent months the chinese stock market has been on a bull run and moved up a lot. Chinese investors have 0 incentive to come back to domains when they are killing it elsewhere, thus the domain crash at the same time.

I believe nothing will improve unless and until the chinese stock market crashes and investors look again to domains to put some of their money. The problem with this is, the chinese authorities have made clear in recent months they will do whatever it takes to prop the stocks up including buying up stakes in chinese companies etc.

If you believe the chinese government will fail to convince stock market investors that they really can and will support the market no matter what then there's a chance, otherwise expect prices to continue falling hard IMO.

 

[Flipsbay]

I think many people are getting too technical about the chinese market, that the xyz floor will be the bottom etc. As I see it this is what happened.

Around October time 2015 prices skyrocketed to $3k a 4l chip. Clearly some big chinese investors decided to cash in and make a fortune and run. I remember a chinese domainer telling me a huge investor sold a ton of them for around $2.5k each in bulk at the time and people were talking about it, why he sold for that price etc.

The market has never really recovered from that point. There have been some big moves up followed by big crashes thereafter. I think many investors lost confidence and belief that we would see the sort of ROI's we saw last year and now we have witnessed a relentless 3 month dump of pretty much all asset classes.

Closely connected to all this is the chinese stock market. In recent months the chinese stock market has been on a bull run and moved up a lot. Chinese investors have 0 incentive to come back to domains when they are killing it elsewhere, thus the domain crash at the same time.

I believe nothing will improve unless and until the chinese stock market crashes and investors look again to domains to put some of their money. The problem with this is, the chinese authorities have made clear in recent months they will do whatever it takes to prop the stocks up including buying up stakes in chinese companies etc.

If you believe the chinese government will fail to convince stock market investors that they really can and will support the market no matter what then there's a chance, otherwise expect prices to continue falling hard IMO.

What you are saying seems to be logical but the only problem i have is why the hell still chips are trading, why we have witnessed 90% buyout of 5l chips, what those wealthy investors were thinking and where they are now. i understand we may not have those answer but i think i would like to know if anyone has any theory.

Thanks.

 

[joro001]

What you are saying seems to be logical but the only problem i have is why the hell still chips are trading, why we have witnessed 90% buyout of 5l chips, what those wealthy investors were thinking and where they are now. i understand we may not have those answer but i think i would like to know if anyone has any theory.

Thanks.

No one has all the answers but what i've said i'm very confident is the truth.
People are trading as everyone likes to think they can work out the bottom and when they are wrong they sell out at for what they can get + people who invested when under $1k each can still make ROI now.

I think 5l's are dead in the water unless something dramatically changes based on what i've said above.
To you and me the amount of money put in to 5l's is huge, but to the chinese investors they have probably just moved on and have like me written it off as a loss for now. I have already accepted a write off of around $8k on those, my worst domain investment ever, c'est la via, overall i'm very happy with ROI from my chinese domains, 6n.com etc..

Those who held everything hoping for the spring to see a pick up I worry for!

 

[Flipsbay]

No one has all the answers but what i've said i'm very confident is the truth.
People are trading as everyone likes to think they can work out the bottom and when they are wrong they sell out at for what they can get + people who invested when under $1k each can still make ROI now.

I think 5l's are dead in the water unless something dramatically changes based on what i've said above.
To you and me the amount of money put in to 5l's is huge, but to the chinese investors they have probably just moved on and have like me written it off as a loss for now. I have already accepted a write off of around $8k on those, my worst domain investment ever, c'est la via, overall i'm very happy with ROI from my chinese domains, 6n.com etc..

Those who held everything hoping for the spring to see a pick up I worry for!

i am worried thats for sure lol

 

[ben pedri]

As we all are witnessing price drop of short chinese chips should we assume its the end of chip market or chiness millionairs are playing with us.

My personal thoughts on 4l was it will be stable at 1200$ but it seems i was wrong and it might go all the way down to 800-1000$ even more who knows, but there is a good hope at 800$.

For 5l it seems we have made a very bad investment so far and only chiness millioners can help us get out of it, which they will not do until they see any profit involved, though i fell there could be a price hike at july 2016 and last hope will be nov 2016 by witnessing if 5l chips are being renewed or not.

Any thoughts will be appreciated

Thanks.

All markets correct weather its stocks or domains ,if this was a stock this just made a major retracement and looks like we are seeing support in the regular LLLL.coms on ratio chips have done worse than the non chips at the height and at the low before the big rise it always kept 8 to 1 ratio ,now its about 6 to one ,it shows that chinese probably had a little tulip fever ,but I think its a good time to nibble down here , a lot of the selling you see is sellers chasing it down ,they fear they missed the high ,and dont want to lose any more. You cant deny that 4l.com domains will always be well supported by end users ,I have even sold a couple non chip llll.org recently for $350 and $500

 

[Recons.Com]

What you are saying seems to be logical but the only problem i have is why the hell still chips are trading, why we have witnessed 90% buyout of 5l chips, what those wealthy investors were thinking and where they are now. i understand we may not have those answer but i think i would like to know if anyone has any theory.

Thanks.

I wrote about all that in the previous thread when everyone was optimistic and I got attacked for that by some, while trying to warn to be careful with this investment.

Chinese investors creamed the crop and overplayed their hands by changing the rules on the go and demoting some of the premium letters to bump value for the ones they were holding (patterns and 15 non-demoted premiums). It backfired and buyout did not happen coinciding with cashing out in 4L chips.

Even with high 4L chip prices I cautioned that it is wrong just to divide by 20 to arrive to 5L value, you have to also factor in present value of renewals at around $200 meaning 5L coms don't have any value even with 4L at $3,000. You need 4L prices above $4,000 for 5L price to be above $0.

 

[mikenormal]

Will be interesting to see what happens later this year and early 2017. If the investors renew then there might be some hope for 5L chips. Until then hang in the best way you can, sell the least of your 5L investment to renew the rest. Right now it clearly is a waiting game.

Good luck everybody!

 

[Flipsbay]

Will be interesting to see what happens later this year and early 2017. If the investors renew then there might be some hope for 5L chips. Until then hang in the best way you can, sell the least of your 5L investment to renew the rest. Right now it clearly is a waiting game.

Good luck everybody!

If it crosses 2016 to 2017 many will lose a lot of money and that's not good for 5l, we need something before 2017 to keep up with the investment else we are killing our investment.

But sure i am also looking for price hike as in anyway i am not been able to sell my chips to anyone, So i will not sell them for 1-2$ a chip thats for sure rather i will wait to until the game ends.

Thanks.

 

[mikenormal]

If it crosses 2016 to 2017 many will lose a lot of money and that's not good for 5l, we need something before 2017 to keep up with the investment else we are killing our investment.

But sure i am also looking for price hike as in anyway i am not been able to sell my chips to anyone, So i will not sell them for 1-2$ a chip thats for sure rather i will wait to until the game ends.

Thanks.

I guess we are all in a different boat with 5L investments. I hope it all works out well.

 

[DomainVP]

$500 by the end of the year for sure...

All random 4L's will have a $500 floor by the end of this year.

 

[mikenormal]

$500 by the end of the year for sure...

All random 4L's will have a $500 floor by the end of this year.

I hope you are right with this prediction.

 

[frank-germany]

$500 by the end of the year for sure...
All random 4L's will have a $500 floor by the end of this year.

finally somebody with greater inside then me!

thanks bro

 

[frank-germany]

some facts wanted?

4l.com CHIPS:

source:
http://domainpayout.com/4lcom/4lcomchips.php



4l.com SUPER CHIPS:

source
http://domainpayout.com/4lcom/4lcomsuperchips.php



average of ALL 4l.com:

source
http://domainpayout.com/4lcom/4lcom.php

 

[Lite]

Chinese market can only grow.

Domain Industry Growth in China Boosting Demand for Conference Networking Opportunities
http://www.dnjournal.com/archive/lowdown/2016/dailyposts/20160505.htm

ICANN with millions of dollars is doing nothing to promote domains.

 

[DomainVP]

Chinese market can only grow.

Domain Industry Growth in China Boosting Demand for Conference Networking Opportunities
http://www.dnjournal.com/archive/lowdown/2016/dailyposts/20160505.htm

ICANN with millions of dollars is doing nothing to promote domains.

That's an ad that's saying nothing more than there has been growth, and they need networking opportunities. IMO, sounds like a dash to 'lend authority' and get some investors steered in the 'right direction' at their own expense.

Also ICANN is doing plenty to promote domains.

Anyone that owns random 4L .COMs, and has tried to sell them outbound, knows that even a price point at $800-$900 does not leave much room for profit with most end users.

Over time I've bought a few quality 4L's in the $500 - $1500 range, most expensive one I ever bought was $5000. However I sure as heck didn't just base my purchase on the random lack of vowels.

The problem is that the perfect company for your 4L might not exist yet; can you afford to own those domains for years, while spending over $1k per domain? If your answer is yes, then more power to you; but most investors cannot and the market is reflecting that.

Which is what the Chinese market is finding out now. 4L chips were great as inflated commodities, until you start learning that they don't flip now like they were last year.

I envision a $500 floor to account for the demand & steady growth of domaining, and the decline of the 'chip' valuations placed on domains.

Having the patience, and funding, to invest in strategically picked 4Ls waiting for inbound inquiries is the best way to go. It's a long term plan, but when a six figure return is plausible it just might be worth the wait.

 

[Flipsbay]

Anyone checked reg states for 5l recently? Any movement + or - reg numbers ?

 

[Abdullah Abdullah]

2016 started and I never regged or bought anything to sell to the Chinese. I do receive offers for the Chinese related domains I have but mainly from resellers.

So always make sure, not to just buy to sell to a certain group of investors .

 

[Ngoc Pham]

no body can predict the markets, especially in this virtual/digital product! unless you have huge money to buy/sell and control the market. but anyway buy quality name and hold always safe.

 

[adamson791]

Honestly guys, its time to move on from the CHIP market. The Chinese certainly have.

Pronouncable 4l.coms with meanings is where the focus of investment should be at. IMO, I also believe that the value of patterned 4ls will soon fall - there is no end use for a repeating character or patterned 4l.com. there just isnt.

Time to sell what you have and move on from the CHIP market imo.

 

[accent]

Remember the story of the blind men and the elephant? Each felt a small part and thought the elephant was like a rope, tree, wall, and so on.

That is us. There is a real lack of information.

For a start, we confuse at least four different groups in China:

1) Wealthy, well connected first movers
2) Wealthy, poorly informed speculators
3) Not wealthy common investors
4) Long time Chinese domainers

Each group moves the market independently.