Love this post. These experienced domainers don't talk about the huge amount of money they spend on quality domains that have been sitting around for years tying up their money.
That's what an investment is: money tied up in something.
But it's better to have $1000 tied up in one single quality domain, than in 100 handregs that nobody wants.
For example I have bought (and sold) LLL.com for 20K (or somewhere in that range). It's a lot of money tied up.
But these names are highly liquid and coveted by end users. If faced with a financial emergency (happens to everyone), you can resell them quite fast at wholesale price to another domainer. At a small profit normally, or you might take a small loss if the timing is unfortunate but you still have cash in hand.
Those names are assets, whereas the 100 handregs are liabilities that will just drain your wallet.
If I can't make a profit on my outlay I will stop. But I'm 100% confident I can within a year
This is not going to happen I think. You should accept that the first year will yield a negative return for you.
This is no different in the real world, many new businesses also record a loss in their first years of operation and only become profitable later on. However, they have something: a
business plan. Domainers need a business plan too, treat like a real business. If you treat like a hobby, you are unlikely to make any meaningful profit. Hobbyists are collectors and they tend to buy more than they sell.
Remember that it takes patience. There is no rule that says you need to become profitable from Y1. But the sooner the better.
Ponder this story:
How a Fishmonger Lost $300K Learning the Domain Name Ropes – With Andrew Rosener