NameLot

Anyone hearing crickets lately? (xxx range sales)

Labeled as question in Domain Buying and Selling Discussion, started by twiki, Sep 25, 2020

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  1. lock

    lock DomainUsed.com VIP

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    Domains may see a boom soon due to Covid causing online retail boom so some budgets to spend. This may not include second choice names it will still be best names selling. If the public don't have money to spend this retail boom will not continue to last if all are broke low value names may be not worth holding. Everyone now is waiting things out so is quiet. Elections in USA don't help.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
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  2. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Well I hope you're right about this new boom, but I have serious doubts about it.

    An the reason is, it should have happened already.
    At least in part. SMBs who could, should have reacted already, and they really didn't.

    First, let's think about what businesses were shut down by Covid. Many can't do online, like bars, restaurants, barbers, high street shops (high price), whatever, you name it. It's only product sales that CAN move online. But most such on-street services and even some shops, can't. It simply doesn't work.

    Let's suppose out of 10 existing businesses, 4 have been terminated by covid. Now looking to do something.

    Most will not have cash to do it. Nor the trust to do it.

    Many will not have the skills and/or support to go online. Lots of brick and mortars don't even handle email. Who is going to do their marketing? And for what fees? They can't do that themselves. Opening a street shop is something that folks can easily gauge, by looking at the passing traffic. But online, that's a completely different animal.

    Not to mention competition from basically everyone else in the same niche, in the country. And prices. And already optimized businesses staying on top with ads.

    No, they're dead already.

    Only a few portion will be able to adapt. And I've already met some of these folks. And from what I can tell you, they are ready to pay - about 50 bucks. Say 100. No cash to spend, no willing to spend, no understanding of domains prices and value. But mostly, no cash to spend. They have already lost about everything trying to save the business.

    And state-based grants already dried up. Anyone who knows a bit of economy, knows this was not meant to be a solution. It only saved a very small number of SMBs, and most cash went elsewhere or it was simply sucked out by ongoing costs on a firm dead already.

    These folks will simply go in the job market, trying to find a job to survive.

    I know this is painting a dark picture, and I apologize for being somewhat of a depression factor here. but again, these are the signs. It's no wonder that killing a big portion of the businesses can't really push up a field which depends, in essence, on growth and profit. Yes there is already more demand from new businesses going online. No, it can't really compensate the losses. Reasons, see above.

    Take a deep look into the Great Depression. While it's not the same situation, it can provide a lot of insight and some things will eventually be found in the current situation which is, in fact, a double whammy. The world economy was already on the brink and in bubbles about to collapse, now it's inevitable.

    The good part, domains will still sell, but many will have to adapt to new situation. And as usual, I'm afraid this will affect the lower end of things most.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  3. lock

    lock DomainUsed.com VIP

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    The lower end 3 4 word dot com are already feeling result of gtld and gtlds are feeling weight of renewal drops. The lower end of the market is going to be traffic value if we see first online depression. Even if there is a boom i am probably not in the realm for their market we can all just hope wait. Elections always mess with spending.
     
  4. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    100% correct. Our biggest action for the moment is, indeed, to hope wait. Or struggle with outbound which I'm personally not about to do.

    The wait, which will roughly take until December, right? And then straight into the new year, low months Jan-Feb, winter, low cash, under a new situation which everyone knows it's not gonna be pretty. A bigger wave of the dang virus might be already rolling out. Or a bigger scare - doesn't matter which cause the end result is the same.

    I am also going to hope wait, but mostly relying on doing some math on paper to see how things might still check out next.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  5. lock

    lock DomainUsed.com VIP

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    Exact same move but i am still looking a lot closer of individual decisions as did jump in early and stop renewing lower mediocre.
     
  6. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I'm also doing the same, about to ditch the mediocre. Looks like a good decision.
     
  7. lock

    lock DomainUsed.com VIP

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    Better to pan through desirable list rather than missing hidden gems overlooked. People take more notice rather than watering it down.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  8. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Couple more notes,

    - Was just talking to @Jurgen Wolf via DM and got this info, and learned that this year he has been receiving lowball offers even from mid-size companies. Now that's some start.

    - Today I called some business owners I know in our market. (Edit:not domains). We're not competing directly, not the same niche or products but kind of parallel, very similar verticals. I've found out that indeed something is off in September, and their sales have seen similar decline. So far I see a 10%... 15% decline, which is not the highest in the world, but enough to bring havoc in niches where you rely on volume and net profit is less than 10%. Which is the case I am talking about.

    But when also taking into the account of the fact that many of our smaller competitors that are NOT online based have already closed, and that we've already taken over their clients, overall it doesn't appear to be good.

    But things can change next, so now just waiting to see into which direction they'll go.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  9. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Reading this article about New York, and scratching my head.

    Is this thing really happening? Could be something far deeper than just elections?
     
  10. Daniel Owens

    Daniel Owens Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    This is the hottest domain market since the .com boom of the 90's. Things are selling like hot cakes and at crazy domain prices, it's hard to find a good deal in this market. 4L's are x,xxx to xx,xxx+ and many domains sell for about 11x the value they had last year. This market is insane, overall my sales are way up compared to the same time last year.
     
  11. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I'd suggest you to read the topic instead of skimming, cause you're speaking of a different segment. Including the title.

    Not talking about 4-fig or 5-fig domains here, a segment which moves in a completely different manner.

    Edit: I don't disagree about higher priced domains, but again this is a slightly different side of things.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  12. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    @Daniel Owens , just to make things more clear, and for whoever hasn't had time to read this thoroughly.

    I'm the proud owner of a dual tier portfolio. On one hand, 4-fig and 5-fig domains. This tier has moved well. Haven't sold any 5-fig this year, but 4-fig sales went very good, including September.

    However, about one year ago I decided tot take on a "discovery" tier of 3-fig domains in a lot of different niches. Sort of an expensive experiment if you want. This is the other tier. The experiment paid off, I've already broken in profit and I still have some months ahead to sell and to discard stuff. I won't hold on for long to this tier, but it has provided at least interesting information and some cash. Plus I had the chance to train my tools better.

    These two tiers have moved very differently through the year. While the 4-fig tier keeps improving, the 3-fig tier keeps going down. To the extent that in September there were basically no sales of 3-fig despite even discounting some a lot. I intend to clear the whole thing on the mid-run, with just a few exceptions.

    This puts me in the perspective of being able to see how things are going on. There are indeed fluctuations in domaining but some things became clear and other members here have corroborated the story. There is significant pressure on price, and whoever sells under 1K is probably not doing that well, as they have confirmed.

    Companies that were strong, tech, finance etc, are still strong or stronger, so 4-fig and especially high 4-fig are going up. On the other hand, lots of small businesses, the clients for $199 or $399 domains, are having a bad time. Hence the lowball offers, and countless offers with no sales. Something repeating over and over and culminating in September.

    Personally, I have nothing to complain overall, as I'm in profit. But it is quite striking, and I feel for those who aren't doing so well. I was having a sale each 2 days of domains in the $199-$750 range, well, right now there are none. And I'm pretty sure there are still enough domains of interest that can be sold. It's just the market that went upside down.

    Logical move, will focus on the higher tier next and closing this one.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  13. Daniel Owens

    Daniel Owens Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I agree just thought you were downplaying the market which is hot right now. I guess you were asking if sales are dropping from last month and for me the answer is no sales have been climbing
     
  14. DomainRecap

    DomainRecap Top Contributor VIP

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    I had lots of nice sales on September, but 3 of them turned out to be DEADBEATS from GoDaddy.

    One was a random BIN, which is always sketchy as hell, but the other 2 were negotiated deals, the last one over a period of weeks. If you're going to be a massive tool and intend to default on payment, why negotiate for what you're NOT going to pay? Just go for the gusto!

    These are my first GD Deadbeats ever, and according to support, all were different buyers, so I'm thinking there are a bunch of jerks trolling GD for some "Back to School" fun. The "fun" is deleting the listing from GD for up to 30 days so no one else can view, bid, or buy it.

    Anyone else with the same "domain hobo" problem?
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  15. Jona4s

    Jona4s Established Member

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    I'm just going to delete what I wrote because I think I said too much.

    Nevermind me thanks, hope you all aren't being too naive.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  16. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Just got an $199 sale today, a domain that was also expiring today. Now that's good timing.

    Fingers crossed further...
     
  17. Ostrados

    Ostrados EpicName.com VIP

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    For me September was a good month but in the xxxx not in the xxx range. I think lower priced names may suffer because they are of lower quality? for me for example my domains that are priced at xxx rarely sell.

    I checked Namebio it seems sales volume are not down in September:

    September Sales (.com):
    Untitled-2.jpg https://namebio.com/?s==IzMyQDM4kjM

    Last 3 months sales (.com):
    Untitled-22.jpg
    https://namebio.com/?s==YDMzQDM4kjM

    I couldn't pick August in Namebio so I picked last 3 months, however it is easy to calculate the monthly average from last 3 months:
    • Average sales per month = 27.8k /3 = 9,266
    • Average dollar volume = $22.2m /3 = $7.4m

    So it seems September is just fine with 9573 total sales vs 9,226 (3 months average), and $7.6m vs $7.4m (3 months average)
     

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    Last edited: Sep 30, 2020
  18. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Thanks for this.

    Well, maybe it's just a fluctuation of some sort. Again this was only speculating. There are other NP members who had a bad month - or even a bad year, but it's clear not everyone has the same experience at the same time.

    Some posters thought I'm making a statement. No I wasn't - just sharing what happened, some agreed, some disagreed, that's the process. I do however share some concerns about the near future, but not that much as they will keep me awake at night, nor do/did I expect them so soon, but rather next year (if any).

    Edit: I definitely think the US election is adding some turmoil, although obviously not dragging the whole thing down, but it can be reason for fluctuations.

    Also, September should probably be a more active month as people are back from vacations etc. And it seems the same as August, which I find a little odd.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2020
  19. Ostrados

    Ostrados EpicName.com VIP

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    September is the back to school month and many people were busy for that. From my experience best months are usually January and February (most people delay the launch of their business after Christmas) and worst month is August (always).
     
  20. eyedomainous

    eyedomainous Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    A free new Malicious Domain Blocking and Reporting (MDBR) service, from U.S. Homeland Security to the web's 'content gateways' began in late August to "help organizations improve security by preventing IT systems from connecting to malicious domains"... most of which are new regs and parked domains.
    https://www.securityweek.com/government-backed-mdbr-service-blocks-connections-malicious-domains

    Perhaps this is impacting the 'bad actors' doing pump & dump domain buying in the low-end market.
     
  21. Silentptnr

    Silentptnr Top Contributor VIP

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    I always want more sales but I sell passively. September has had decent sales. For me, doesnt seem too different.

    I am seeing more traffic on the roads so i assume more people are going back to work. In transition.

    I think folks are also captivated by the election.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2020
  22. uzver

    uzver Established Member PRO

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    For me, everything seem to be back to (my) normal.

    Sold three domains within a week (although one of them was negotiated since mid September).
     
  23. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes Top Member NameTalent VIP Gold Account Trusted Blogger

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    My portfolio size and ratio rate is too low to conclude much, but in last couple of weeks I have had 4 offers (on 4 different domains) in $$$ range, and that rate is actually more offers than I normally would have at $$$+. None are yet a sale - 1 I declined without counteroffer, 2 others I declined but with counter offer one of which waiting response the other declined by buyer, and 1 is a pending sale but I know that does not always mean a sale until completes. The offers were spread over 1 .com, 2 .ca and 1 .org.

    I think small number statistics for a portfolio just in the hundreds means sometimes things seem very low (e.g. I had almost nothing happen Feb-Apr this year), other a few offers one after the other, but it is mainly just way small number stats work naturally. At 2% sell-through a 400 name portfolio expected to have 8 sales per year, and maybe a 20 or 30 offers in the year (based on my guess of ratio of offers to sales). Most of the time, domaining is similar to watching paint dry.

    Bob
     
  24. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Hell I'd like that. For me it is a ridiculous amount of work, now getting close to 5K names and growing.
     
  25. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Finally some insight into what's going on, cause something is definitely going on ( it's been a month since this trend is here for me):

    https://www.namepros.com/threads/as...in-name-sales-are-way-off-2019s-pace.1210624/

    In brief from the article, it appears that .com sales are indeed eroded a bit by other gTLD's, but the main drop since 2019 would be the 30% overall reduction in price. While number of sales is projected to be somewhat similar, overall sales volume is impacted. Not dead by any means but yes, affected.

    As I expected, buying power has to decline when a significant number of businesses went down. Since my domains cater mostly to SMB's and less for tech companies with high buying power (for example), it pretty much started to make sense. Grants dried up, reserved dried up at least for some... etc.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2020

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