NameLot

Anyone hearing crickets lately? (xxx range sales)

Labeled as question in Domain Buying and Selling Discussion, started by twiki, Sep 25, 2020

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  1. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I had a sudden stop of low-to-mid xxx range sales this month. None.

    Since pandemic started, they sold nicely but in September everything stopped on this tier.

    I'm cutting some fat off (about 1k names) and I'm not getting any sales on these while not renewing them when they expire. All listed low xxx range, I know for sure that price is not the problem.

    I can't complain overall, as this month I've had a few very good 4-fig names. BUT. This is weird and unprecedented.

    Anyone else seeing the same?
     
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  2. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Furthermore, there's even a larger exposure. I have about 2.5K names with lower xxx prices in total. It's really strange for me not to sell anything in a month, while during the spring summer I sold one each other day. Had a few offers but they did not complete.

    Eerie situation for me.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2020
  3. CraigD

    CraigD 360promo.com VIP

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    Possibly due to end of FY?
     
  4. uzver

    uzver Established Member PRO

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    September is the worst month for me since February — zero sales. :-/ I did have around 6-8 inquiries in the second half of the month, but none have led to sales.

    I only have around 500 names, but I’ve been doing 4-5 end user sales each month since February, of which at least 50% via BIN.
     
  5. uzver

    uzver Established Member PRO

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    Thanks for posting this. Now I know it’s not just me.
     
  6. koolishman

    koolishman Upgraded Member Blue Account

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  7. pb

    pb Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    A big source of xxx-xxxx sales have traditionally been new businesses, and there aren't that many popping up right now, especially in certain industries.
     
  8. alcy

    alcy Top Contributor VIP

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    sales are too random
    different names
    different sellers
    different buyer needs and timings
    there is no such thing as good or bad months that apply to many or most. domain qualities are not random ... thats all about sellers experience...but sales involve too many variables to draw conclusions for all or most sellers.
     
  9. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I agree - in general. But when you have a rather large exposure, everything goes like clockwork and suddenly one month is blank, well, that's not normal. Had way worse portfolio back then and still got these sales coming steadily.

    I'm thinking like this. Perhaps people are too busy right now with their kids and school - there has been hectic everywhere. Maybe they'll rebound soon.

    Otherwise, there's something brewing (downtrend) in the market (not that I'd be largely surprised, tbh).
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  10. Rick Ace

    Rick Ace Top Contributor VIP

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    From what I've seen, since the pandemic started different domain investors have had random down periods. Unless there is data that can show an overall downward trend, I'm not inclined to believe that this month affects the market as a whole. But the fact remains that 2020 has been an unpredictable year for domain sales. In another note, the Chinese domain market has been going up and down, which directly or indirectly contributed to sales in the past.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  11. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I'm also in another field in European market, which is directly influenced by the global economic trend. Retail of physical goods. When things go down on the macro level, we feel that almost instantly.

    September has been already weird, weaker than August. This has NEVER happened, not even during 2007 crisis. Our business has grown however with the pandemic, as we're online and brick and mortar fronts have closed so we got a steady 30% up due to that since April. But we are seeing significant decline from August to September across the board.

    It has to be correlated. Again this has never happened and is to us impossible unless something is happening. September is usually double in sales of August, well, it's less so far.

    But of course, nothing is written in stone as of yet.
     
  12. Rick Ace

    Rick Ace Top Contributor VIP

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    That does sound interesting and I don't want to sound dismissive of your concerns (which I think are valid), but I have to disagree with your statement that "it has to be correlated" for the time being.

    I am not seeing anything that would show a major decline in sales from July-August-September. Before we start speculating why there's a decline or why "something is happening," we need to identify what exactly, if anything, is going on.

    Normally in an economic downturn that affects us, there's a decline in the value of sales. I' m not seeing that happen. Just the other day, I was speaking with someone who is bouncing back from low sales in the spring.

    In conclusion, I'm not dismissive of the concerns, but we need to identify what's wrong, if anything is wrong, before we can figure out why.
     
  13. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    I don't disagree. I'm just talking hints for now. Not certainties.

    But for sure will be watching this closely. If something goes south, I'd expect that to be next year mostly. We'll see.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  14. garptrader

    garptrader Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Domain sales have always been rather random but the proliferation of new extensions in recent years gives end users 500 times more reg fee options.
     
  15. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Yes but if you're in the .com market (like I am) there's nothing to worry about.

    Just like bitcoin vs. everything else in crypto.
     
  16. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Some insight into my thoughts so far.

    Domaining is a form of small business. As a SMB owner, you have to look ahead and be good at forecasting if you want to be sure you're going to make profit and not losses.

    The same thing applies to all other small businesses around the world. They're like cells, either in growth mode or in panic / preservation mode. They try to perceive around in spacetime, as in around them and in the near future. It's important - for survival.

    There's a reason I mentioned that other business. We cater to SMBs - well, they react much faster than retail. Individuals see bad things rather when they have no money in the pocket left. SMB's instead, they plan, and they might go into survival mode much sooner.

    This being said, I'm going to speculate that what happens now, (if there is indeed some decline) is due to a temporary scare. They might be afraid of what comes next, as the whole world might be preparing for more closures. This has to be important on their financial planning. And we're talking small shops, small retailers, mom and pop going online, service providers etc. These are clients for $200 domains, not for 4-5 fig. They will be affected first if anything goes south.

    I see sales of low xxx range a distinct tier, separated from the 4-fig range. These will evolve differently in the current market that will be anyway inherently subjected to some level of turmoil. About this detail I'm pretty sure. Businesses that would spend 4-fig or 5-fig with no sweat are certain types, with more cash, not the usual small online shop etc.

    I'm going to bet that demand will still continue to exist but pressure on the price will be much higher, which might mean losses for certain domainers, especially market level ones. But this is, of course, yet to be seen and validated.

    Again this is only speculation for now. But speculation is an initial step in proper forecasting, you have to make some educated guesses at first, and the truth will settle correctly only once actual verified data goes in. But by then, you have to have your plan B and C ready, just in case. There's time to think about them right now, and plan, if they will ever be needed.

    That's how I survived for 20 years in business. Always thinking in advance, never allowing myself to be caught by the unexpected and not be ready. For example by the time the first Covid case entered our country we were already bio-safety compliant in this respect. Started preparing it on the first days of January as this thing was coming anyway.

    Edit: One thing I have observed is that mature businessmen are always more careful and plan for everything, sort of a bit conservative if you want. It is what life in business teaches you. Young ones tend to often go on riskier paths but when you're older you definitely don't want to gamble. Like many have said, a business where profit isn't certain is perhaps not a business to get into.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  17. Rick Ace

    Rick Ace Top Contributor VIP

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    A few points that might be useful to add on to what you said...

    - The election (for Americans) is in November and that usually leads to market volatility.
    - Stocks are falling (mostly due to the reason above).
    - Funds to subsidize and stimulate businesses are running out.
    - The UK has enacted stricter measures while Europe has entered a second wave.

    So, one thing you could speculate is that there aren't going to be many investors who are willing to spend large sums of cash until the election is over and until the world understands what a second wave means.
     
  18. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Thank you for adding these notes, quite helpful as they add some detail to the current picture.
     
  19. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    As of now in September I got 3 mid $xxx inquiries for non-.COMs...
    1 from Australia (Epik lander) and 2 US (legacy Bodis, Dan).
    Rejected them.

    Portfolio size in September: <600

    p.s. Overall, 2020 for me is the worst year ever.
     
  20. Recons.Com

    Recons.Com Top Contributor VIP

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    Possible explanations besides/in addition to the ones listed before (covid 2nd, 3rd waves, schools opening, end of fiscal year...)

    - Random. While 2.5k is big enough, probability of a sale for each name is so small on each day, that it could get skewed considerably

    - Weeding out. If this is a mostly stationary pool of names, at low $xxx the ones that were true bargains got weeded out over the months, those that might have sold at mid xxx to low xxxx too. Those names probably had way higher STR at this price.
     
  21. Jona4s

    Jona4s Established Member

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    Yup. September pretty dry.

    Had to cut some by 80% to sell hahaha :dead:
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  22. Rick Ace

    Rick Ace Top Contributor VIP

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    If you're cutting by 80%, do it on NP or kindly post your links. :-o Sounds like an opportunity to me.
     
  23. Jona4s

    Jona4s Established Member

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    There you go. Send you DM :playful:
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  24. AbdulBasit.com

    AbdulBasit.com DomainsWeb.com AbdulBasit.com PRO VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    There have always been ups and downs with everyone. So far this year have been fantastic for me and this month is another exceptional month. I'll be sharing the results early next month.
     
  25. twiki

    twiki Top Contributor VIP Gold Account

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    Excellent, info appreciated, but you have missed the title. And probably skimmed the discussion.

    This is about xxx range sales, which you are not into. It's a completely different tier and moves differently than 4-figs which make your portfolio. And it looks to me like there is a very different dynamic between these two worlds separated by price range.

    The clients for 4-figs and more, are not the same clients as the ones going for 3-fig.

    Edit: To be even more clear as to what I am talking about, please re-read the original post. I even said there myself that I can't complain overall, because had a good month with 4-fig sales and these went good. However my portfolio is a mixed one, well the lower priced tier has completely dried out in sales during September.

    So it's the xxx range that went down, not the higher value ones.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020

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