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The future of .COM after new gTLDs boom! Big DROP?!

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Deeply flawed comparison. New extensions are not new technology, they work exactly like 'old' extensions. The DNS is flexible and can support new services as the Internet evolves.

The whole .com is 'inferior' technology and outdated hype is just marketing nonsense.

A few other myths dispelled:

- Millennials prefer nGTLDs.

No they prefer .com like everyone else because all their websites are there.

- Millennials will bring change to the DNS.

No their startups choose .com like everyone else.

- The generation born today will learn to use nGTLDs

So far they learn that their favorite websites are under .com

- The generation born today will not want .com

Who cares? They will move the market when the are middle-aged. 45 years from now.

- Big brands will bring change and switch to .brand

Home.Brand is horrible and they avoided switching to far.

- nGTLDs are shorter

Usually it's the opposite(home.brand vs. brand.com vs. brand.keyword) but the the proponents like to show a few examples where this isn't the case. Also shorter doesn't mean more popular. .co will never be as popular as .com

- nGTLDs boost SEO equally well that is why they will be bought instead of .com

Few domains are being bought solely because of the exact match advantage. Google doesn't give much weight to exact match anymore. Today domains are being bought for branding.

- I have WORD1.WORD2 and Word1Word2.com is worth 6 figures therefore my WORD1.WORD2 is worth 6 figures because it is even better.

You could as well argue that word.co is worth as much as word.com. The market doesn't think that way and it doesn't work that way in the real world. There isn't the same demand for .co as there is demand for .com. Prices are the result of supply and demand.

With the nGTLDs there is a lot of supply but little demand. Not good if you want to get high prices.

- Google, Facebook, Microsoft invest in nGTLDs and will bringe change.

Google invest in a lot of things but so far little suggest that they are that they are too interested in changing the DNS. If they could they would probably eliminate domain names as they want to fully control every aspect of internet navigation.

- Company XY uses nGTLD. The nGTLDs are coming.

99 out of 100 cases the opposite is true but it doesn't get reported because it is so common.
When a company chooses a .biz or a .info or a .net strangely nothing is reported. Probably because it has always happened but never amounted to anything.

- Amazon or insert any other tech giant has registered many nGTLDs and planning something big

99% of the registrations that we see are protective. If they don't protect their IP it could be weakened making it harder to defend. They don't want to do this but they need to. Protective regs are zombies in the zone.

- The nGTLDs are new and innovative and the new will always replace the old.

Most innovative products never succeed in the marketplace. Just like most startups will fail.
It's more likely that a new product will fail rather than succeed. Historically the odds are stacked against this type of thing. It's just that we tend to forget about the failures(or never learn about them) and remember the few things that truly changed our world.

- nGTLDs are a huge money maker

I don't doubt that some speculators can make money with many different types of extensions.

On average I doubt that they are very profitable. The registries seem to struggle to make money so far it seems despite holding most of the premium keywords.

MMX, CentralNic and Rightside stocks all down I believe. If the registries are not doing so well will domainers do much better?

- The emerging markets will choose nGTLDs and make them great.

This is not true at all. They show the same behaviour patterns and gravitate vs. .com and their ccTLDs. nGTLDs are even worse options for emerging markets compared to the US. They are not English native speakers and local nGTLD options in their own language are usually not available or very limited.


 
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The only hope for new TLD and alternative TLD (.net, .CO, .TV etc) investors is a booming interest in buying aftermarket domains at premium prices to promote businesses. The argument of keyword.whatever is cheaper than the .COM so end users should be buying my .whatevers has generally not worked out well. Why is it that domainers are dropping .net, .info, .tv and other extensions? Inadequate demand. Many end users are unwilling to pay more than reg fee and often opt for social media accounts to promote their businesses. It is hard enough to sell .COM domains. Sales ratios in alternative extensions are generally lower than .COM despite the ease of obtaining better keywords.
 
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Well I'm having a bit of an experiment with xyz names.So far I've got 5 xyz names for the vintage meet, and I own VintageMeet.com and FieldFairs.com. Most of them are undeveloped, but I'll rectify that this month. I've just signed up for adsense, so if they let me join with a hotch-potch of small sites, then I'll see if I can make a bit of income from those names. I'm not sure how i can discover the impact I've had on promoting the meet. I'll probably do better by advertising the sites at the meet. :)
 
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168 said:
new, exciting,relevant

You are drinking the registry kool-aid here.
New: Yes but will get old soon.
exciting: Depends on how you view it. Most don't care.
Relevant: Registry marketing nonsense.

168 said:
what will it take ?

A reasonable amount of REAL end-user sales including development not Land of Oz sales with parked pages.

Look into these into detail. A large part of these were sales reports from China which are often made up as we have learned. Some others were dodgy as well for other reasons. Almost nothing got developed.

It is a case of speculator buying high hoping to sell higher. (aka Greater Fool Theory)

Most of these were also registry sales. .xxx sold over $5 million of domains even with the dodgy ones here, hundreds of extensions barely manage that. The hype is just pathetic. Most end-users simply refuse to pay high prices for these. If they pay a lot they pay for .com

For the most part they are not selling as well you believe.

1.xyz 182971 USD 2016-03-31 West.cn - Highly questionable (see related forum thread about mortgaging domains) - Registry sale - Does not resolve
Sex.LIVE 160000 USD 2016-07-13 Rightside - Questionable (see related forum thread) free affiliate website template with $5 logo - Registry sale
Porn.LIVE 120000 USD 2016-07-14 Rightside - Questionable (see related forum thread) free affiliate website template with $5 logo - Registry sale
co.ltd 115000 USD 2016-08-15 Donuts - Registry sale
99.vip 77622 USD 2016-06-06 2016 Global Domains Industry Summit - Probably a speculator sale, does not resolve
Web.hosting 75000 USD 2016-05-08 invalid - Placeholder site
88.xyz 70000 USD 2016-01-11 NamesCon 2016/RightOfTheDot - Probably a speculator sale
66.xyz 65901 USD 2016-03-31 West.cn Highly questionable (see related forum thread about mortgaging domains) - Registry sale - Does not resolve
d.vip 63152 USD 2016-05-31 west.cn - Does not resolve - Probably a speculator sale
stock.photo / stock.photos 60000 USD 2016-01-11 NamesCon 2016 - Probably a speculator sale
66.vip 59348 USD 2016-05-31 west.cn - Does not resolve - Probably a speculator sale
web.hosting 52500 USD 2016-01-11 NamesCon 2016/RightOfTheDot - Probably a speculator sale - Placeholder site
work.place 50001 USD 2016-10-08 Private - Does not resolve
i.vip 48836 USD 2016-05-20 Ali Auction - Does not resolve
51.xyz 46518 USD 2016-03-31 West.cn - Highly questionable (see related forum thread about mortgaging domains) - Registry sale - Does not resolve
58.vip 45660 USD 2016-06-06 2016 Global Domains Industry Summit - Probably a speculator sale, does not resolve
e.vip 45660 USD 2016-06-06 2016 Global Domains Industry Summit - Probably a speculator sale, does not resolve
Auto.loan 45000 USD 2016-11-27 Undeveloped - A rare bird. It is a nice name, developed and may not be a registry sale.
11.xyz 43107 USD 2016-03-31 West.cn - Highly questionable (see related forum thread about mortgaging domains) - Registry sale - Does not resolve
ym.xyz 39695 USD 2016-03-31 - highly questionable (see related forum thread about mortgaging domains) - Registry sale - Does not resolve
3d.software 100001 USD 2015-05-08 Rightside - Registry sale - Does not resolve
dui.attorney 100001 USD 2015-06-01 Private - That looks like another good one. Great keywords, not a registry sale and developed.
Coffee.Club 100000 USD 2014-11-01 TRAFFIC MIAMI 2014 - Registry sale - This is actually developed and a real business. Actually legit but I am not sure if this was a cash sale or was to be paid in installements over many years. See related discussions.
Vegas.Club 100000 USD 2015-01-13 Right Of The Dot - Developed
Autism.Rocks 100000 USD 2015-06-18 Sedo - Developed - There was some discussion about this sale being unusual in the sense that the payment was part of a donation made. Not sure but there is a related forum thread to this.
net.work 100000 USD 2015-06-16 Mind + Machines - Registry sale - Does not resolve
6.top 93600 USD 2015-12-09 Jiangsu Bangning - Registry sale - Does not resolve
M.top 93600 USD 2015-12-09 Jiangsu Bangning - Registry sale - Does not resolve
Transfer.Money 90000 USD 2015-06-17 Private - Parked
a.top 90000 USD 2014-12-31 Registry sale - Parked
 
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Is this thread still about .com drops? :xf.cool:
Was it ever? I thought it was about a possible drop in the value of .com names. I think they are a good investment, and will increase in value. You can even get a good income from your holding if you monetise your names.
 
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Anyone with an understanding of economics would realize that ngtlds bring consumer choice to a very saturated market. Consumer choice reduces prices and increases competition, when this happens a market will evolve and become more efficient, as a new equilibrium price level is acheived. This is bad for legacy tld users because domains of medium-low value will drop in value and soon become worthless. I think good .com's will get even more expensive but anything in the middle of the pack will drop in value because of the additional competition within the same price range. Another thing to note is that the children/teenagers of today are the future internet users of tomorrow and these people will not be growing up with .COM as king, they are being taught about .keyword and that is whats going to be the big change here, the moment those people become salary earners is when the environment makes a big shift because their preferences will be very different from people like us who were born in the 70's,80's and 90's. Remember kids born in 2000 will be salary earners in 2018, and will become a substantial part of the work force by 2020. They are the ones who "grew up" with NGTLD's and they will be the ones that big companies will be targeting to capture their disposable income. NGTLDs are for the next generation of domainers, their current value is not great but should appreciate greatly in the coming years. Today 5 figures is the highest you can get for a good premium ngtld (except for a unicorn or an end user is desperate for it), so the current price ceiling is at the level of a low/medium quality premium .com, which is fair given they have been around for less than 10 years. I think by 2018 or 2019 you will be seeing a lot more public transaction volume and some high profile sales. I strongly believe that domain investors should be holding onto their premium ngtlds, not trying to flip them. Fast money is a notion perpetuated by this forum but when it comes to taking advantage of new frontiers, its better to wait and let the market appreciate so you can maximize your ROI. There will always be haters but most of the haters here either don't take the time to do their research or have ulterior motives due to them having very heavy .com portfolio's and this is the same with all the big players. If I were them I'd either do the same thing and say ngtlds were shit to boost my .com portfolio or say they were shit knowing thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people would listen and then go back on my word and snap up the best ngtlds in secret to hedge my .com portfolio, because above all else I'd want to stay at the top. Also the guys having the audacity to comment on the validity of a sale...are idiots, you don't know the risk appetite of the buyer, their intentions today or their intentions tomorrow. I mean honestly its the most hypocritical type of thinking because there are so many "questionable" sales in every tld. Fact of the matter is a transaction has been made and the actions towards the domain are in control of whoever is in ownership and it ends there. The only thing thats questionable is you questioning them.
 
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Loads of .com names are worthless - who would want knight-gvoejmvoemvemvomvemvmvvvev.com for example - that doesn't mean that all .coms are worthless.

knight.xyz is clearly worth more than the .com in my example, and this is the point of the new tlds. If you can't get a decent .com, then maybe it is worth grabbing an alternative, But that just makes the .com more valuable imho.

If you can't afford filet steak, you might eat horse, but that won't make the steak any cheaper as long as there are people who can afford it.
 
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Loads of .com names are worthless - who would want knight-gvoejmvoemvemvomvemvmvvvev.com for example - that doesn't mean that all .coms are worthless.

knight.xyz is clearly worth more than the .com in my example, and this is the point of the new tlds. If you can't get a decent .com, then maybe it is worth grabbing an alternative, But that just makes the .com more valuable imho.

If you can't afford filet steak, you might eat horse, but that won't make the steak any cheaper as long as there are people who can afford it.

I already said that. Read carefully. Good .coms will get even more expensive, for now.
 
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Anyone with an understanding of economics would realize that ngtlds bring consumer choice to a very saturated market. Consumer choice reduces prices and increases competition, when this happens a market will evolve and become more efficient, as a new equilibrium price level is acheived. This is bad for legacy tld users because domains of medium-low value will drop in value and soon become worthless. I think good .com's will get even more expensive but anything in the middle of the pack will drop in value because of the additional competition within the same price range. Another thing to note is that the children/teenagers of today are the future internet users of tomorrow and these people will not be growing up with .COM as king, they are being taught about .keyword and that is whats going to be the big change here, the moment those people become salary earners is when the environment makes a big shift because their preferences will be very different from people like us who were born in the 70's,80's and 90's. Remember kids born in 2000 will be salary earners in 2018, and will become a substantial part of the work force by 2020. They are the ones who "grew up" with NGTLD's and they will be the ones that big companies will be targeting to capture their disposable income. NGTLDs are for the next generation of domainers, their current value is not great but should appreciate greatly in the coming years. Today 5 figures is the highest you can get for a good premium ngtld (except for a unicorn or an end user is desperate for it), so the current price ceiling is at the level of a low/medium quality premium .com, which is fair given they have been around for less than 10 years. I think by 2018 or 2019 you will be seeing a lot more public transaction volume and some high profile sales. I strongly believe that domain investors should be holding onto their premium ngtlds, not trying to flip them. Fast money is a notion perpetuated by this forum but when it comes to taking advantage of new frontiers, its better to wait and let the market appreciate so you can maximize your ROI. There will always be haters but most of the haters here either don't take the time to do their research or have ulterior motives due to them having very heavy .com portfolio's and this is the same with all the big players. If I were them I'd either do the same thing and say ngtlds were sh*t to boost my .com portfolio or say they were sh*t knowing thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people would listen and then go back on my word and snap up the best ngtlds in secret to hedge my .com portfolio, because above all else I'd want to stay at the top. Also the guys having the audacity to comment on the validity of a sale...are idiots, you don't know the risk appetite of the buyer, their intentions today or their intentions tomorrow. I mean honestly its the most hypocritical type of thinking because there are so many "questionable" sales in every tld. Fact of the matter is a transaction has been made and the actions towards the domain are in control of whoever is in ownership and it ends there. The only thing thats questionable is you questioning them.
Can you use paragraphs? :D
 
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. Remember kids born in 2000 will be salary earners in 2018, and will become a substantial part of the work force by 2020. They are the ones who "grew up" with NGTLD's and they will be the ones that big companies will be targeting to capture their disposable income

They don't grow up with nGTLDs. They used .com for most of their lives. This will not change much in the next 2-3 years.

Today less than 1% of web traffic is going to nGTLDs probably much less than that. They are not more exposed so much more than anyone else. Why is this so hard to accept?

There is still virtually zero exposure in terms of ad spending in this age group while billions of dollars going to .com. .

Maybe the next generation, the ones born today will be exposed more. As I said above, main consumer spending is always 40+. You need to wait for 40 years before they start moving and leading the market and that's optimistic or 20 years before they enter the workforce.

Can you wait 20-40 years?
 
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Looks like the line continues to go up according to that chart. I imagine it'll be even better in the future once people smarten up, adjust and start rolling with the king. Could be a big drop in new gtlds next Summer, realization setting in etc. Might be a temp hit on .com as well, remember people getting caught up in all that Chinese this and that and buying all kinds of crap, weird combos etc.*** That drop is coming as well. But after that, back to the normal upward trend.

*** as an example, those 5Ls. See them on sale here at NP in bulk for .50 cents each. All that is going to drop.

The chart stat includes: NEW, DELETED, TRANSFERED AND GRACE PERIOD DOMAIN NAMES.
 
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They don't grow up with nGTLDs. They used .com for most of their lives. This will not change much in the next 2-3 years.

Today less than 1% of web traffic is going to nGTLDs probably much less than that. They are not more exposed than anyone else. Why is this so hard to accept?

There is still virtually zero exposure in terms of ad spending in this age group while billions of dollars going to .com. .

Maybe the next generation, the ones born today will be exposed more. As I said above, main consumer spending is always 40+. You need to wait for 40 years before they start moving and leading the market and that's optimistic or 20 years before they enter the workforce.

Can you wait 20-40 years?
This is wrong. The highest purchasing power is given to those in the 40+ range, yes but who are they spending it on? Their kids. Who makes up for the majority of online sales? The young. Who is Nike trying to peddle their next Lebron too? Kids ages 12-21. It's much more complex than what your trying to describe. 1% today but I doubt that will be the same in 5 or 10 years. Also, I can easily wait 20 years, I'm in my 20's right now its not a problem.
 
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This is wrong. The highest purchasing power is given to those in the 40+ range, yes but who are they spending it on? Their kids. Who makes up for the majority of online sales? The young. Who is Nike trying to peddle their next Lebron too? Kids ages 12-21. It's much more complex than what your trying to describe. 1% today but I doubt that will be the same in 5 or 10 years. Also, I can easily wait 20 years, I'm in my 20's right now its not a problem.

Ok then report us your sales in 2036.
 
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Ok then report us your sales in 2036.

I bet your the same guy who'd ask .com owners in 1996 to report their sales in 2016. This isn't a pissing contest, stop making surface level arguments and deal with the reality of whats happening and whats to come.
 
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I bet your the same guy who'd ask .com owners in 1996 to report their sales in 2016. This isn't a pissing contest, stop making surface level arguments and deal with the reality of whats happening and whats to come.

Millennials already got used to .com(they grew up with it) so the nGTLDs are too late for this group.
 
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Millennials already got used to .com(they grew up with it) so the nGTLDs are too late for this group.

As I suspected, you don't even understand the catalyst group that will initiate the change. A millennial is a person reaching adulthood at around the year 2000. NGTLD's are for generation Z not generation Y, we are heading towards the post millennial era, those born between 1995 and 2014.
 
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, and while 29.1% of men said that they trust all domains the same, only 22.9% of women felt the same. We also found big differences in results when comparing the different age ranges of the UK, as younger respondents seemed much less trusting of new domains than their older counterparts.

according to this the younger trust them less, maybe because they are more internet savy and learned to associate them with spam.

As I suspected, you don't even understand the catalyst group that will initiate the change

what makes you so sure that they will be changing something? Maybe they will block them?
 
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