news Covid19-Coronavirus updates and news

[Mister Funsky]

Having relatives and friends scattered all over the globe, I am getting an overload of input (some on the record and some off the record).

My intention for this thread is for community members from around the world to post first hand stories and/or links to information sources that, for the most part, should be reliable.

In my community, just outside a major southeastern city, 'assets' have been placed. Only because I have friends in both high and low places have I heard about some of this. At this point it is only some basic medical supplies that should be equally distributed anyway in preparation for a natural emergency (hurricane/wildfire/etc.).

I will start with posting a link to a site with current data that seems to come from an aggregate of sources and hope others will do the same as they come across similar sites/pages.

Because of the 'typhoid Mary' spread-ability of this disease, I feel we may be in for a really large spread globally which will impact the global economy and through extension, retail domain prices.

One thing is for sure...things will get worse before they get better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa-coronavirus/

 

[mr-x]

Double check my math.

7 day avg infections, Deaths Total infections Total deaths
Florida:

29,490

6

4,012,152

62,390

Deaths per 100,000 infections: 1555

New York State:

37,981

69

3,251,712

58,960

Deaths per 100,000 infections: 4710

( death / infections ) * 100,000

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/

Gov DeSantis may not be an MD or a scientist but he certainly knows how to manage a pandemic.

 

[mr-x]

Florida's population is older than NY's too.

 

[bmugford]

Double check my math.

7 day avg infections, Deaths Total infections Total deaths
Florida:

29,490

6

4,012,152

62,390

Deaths per 100,000 infections: 1555

New York State:

37,981

69

3,251,712

58,960

Deaths per 100,000 infections: 4710

( death / infections ) * 100,000

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/

Gov DeSantis may not be an MD or a scientist but he certainly knows how to manage a pandemic.

Florida has a population around 22M people.
New York is around 20M people.

Florida total infections - 4M
New York total infections- 3.25M

Florida total deaths - 62,390
New York total deaths - 58,960

The numbers are basically identical, so not really sure how that is a positive for DeSantis.

Also, the most recent day (December 30th) shows 77,848 new COVID cases in Florida with 90 deaths.

Meanwhile a state like California is vastly outperforming both on all metrics, adjusted to population size.
With almost 40M people...

5.46M cases. 76K deaths.

Brad

 

[mr-x]

Florida has a population around 22M people.
New York is around 20M people.

Florida total infections - 4M
New York total infections- 3.25M

Florida total deaths - 62,390
New York total deaths - 58,960

The numbers are basically identical, so not really sure how that is a positive for DeSantis.

Except Florida did it without vaccine mandates, discrimination, kept kids in school, no police storming restaurants. Also, Florida's population is much older on average so a higher risk group.

"Not only is the forced quarantining of healthy children disruptive to a student’s education, but many folks in Florida are not able to work from home. With this rule, we are following a symptom-based approach to quarantining students in Florida.” - Governor Ron DeSantis

Meanwhile a state like California is vastly outperforming both on all metrics, adjusted to population size.
With almost 40M people...

5.46M cases. 76K deaths.

Brad

California has the largest poverty / homeless population. I seriously doubt California is reporting accurate numbers.

 

[bmugford]

California has the largest poverty / homeless population. I seriously doubt California is reporting accurate numbers.

So what convinces you that Florida is reporting accurate numbers then?

Are numbers not accurate, just because you don't believe them?

Brad

 

[mr-x]

So what convinces you that Florida is reporting accurate numbers then?

Are numbers not accurate, just because you don't believe them?

Brad

Because California is a corrupt state run by communist, that's why people are abandoning it. To be fair, it could also be related to the dry weather and sunshine in most of the state. I'm absolutely sure it has nothing to do with management.

 

[mr-x]

New York covid deaths per 100K = 292 ( 20,201,249 )

Florida covid deaths per 100k = 290 ( 21,538,187 )

Florida's population is much older on average and since deaths per 100K infections are about ONE THIRD of NY's, Florida obviously does a better job of managing the Pandemic.

 

[bmugford]

New York covid deaths per 100K, 292 ( 20,201,249 )

Florida covid deaths per 100k, 290 ( 21,538,187 )

Florida's population is much older on average and since deaths per 100K infections are about ONE THIRD of NY's, Florida obviously does a better job of managing the Pandemic.

I think you need to re-check your math.

How could similar populations, similar total infections, similar total deaths, similar death rate per 100,000 then mean the deaths per 100K infections is 1/3 for Florida.

That makes no sense mathematically.

Florida total infections - 4M
New York total infections- 3.25M

Florida total deaths - 62,390
New York total deaths - 58,960

The numbers are almost identical across the board.

In Florida with 4M cases and 62,390 deaths the death rate is around 1.55%.
In New York with 3.25M cases and 58,390 cases the death rate is around 1.79%.

Based on the raw numbers...

Florida deaths per 100K infections = 1,559.
New York deaths per 100K infections = 1,814.

Brad

 

[mr-x]

I think you need to re-check your math.

How could similar populations, similar total infections, similar total deaths, similar death rate per 100,000 then mean the deaths per 100K infections is 1/3 for Florida.

That makes no sense mathematically.

Florida total infections - 4M
New York total infections- 3.25M

Florida total deaths - 62,390
New York total deaths - 58,960

( deaths / infections ) * 100K

58,960 / 3,251,712 * 100,000 = 1813

1813 / 1555 = 1.7

NY population over 65 14.5%
FL population over 65 20.9%

 

[bmugford]

( deaths / infections ) * 100K

58,960 / 3,251,712 * 100,000 = 1813

1813 / 1555 = 1.7

NY population over 65 14.5%
FL population over 65 20.9%

You literally just said that Florida deaths per 100K infections are about 1/3 of New York.

Florida deaths per 100K infections = 1,559.
New York deaths per 100K infections = 1,814.

1/3 of 1800 is 600. Florida is at 1560, not 600.

1559 is 86% of 1814.

The death rate per 100K infections in Florida is 86% of the death rate in New York per 100K infections, not 1/3 (33%).

Sorry, your math is wrong.

Again, California is far more impressive than either...using the same stats on the website you posted.

Brad

 

[mr-x]

You literally just said that Florida deaths per 100K infections are about 1/3 of New York.

Florida deaths per 100K infections = 1,559.
New York deaths per 100K infections = 1,814.

1/3 of 1800 is 600. Florida is at 1560, not 600.

1559 is 86% of 1814.

The death rate per 100K infections in Florida is 86% of the death rate in New York per 100K infections, not 1/3 (33%).

Sorry, your math is wrong.

Again, California is far more impressive than either...using the same stats on the website you posted.

Brad

You literally saw my mistake and asked me to redo the math and I did. Why are you complaining?

By all measures, Florida is doing better than the state the media held as the gold standard a few months ago.

 

[bmugford]

You literally saw my mistake and asked me to redo the math and I did. Why are you complaining?

By all measures, Florida is doing better than the state the media held as the gold standard a few months ago.

And California is doing far better than both, according to the same stats. I guess they are the real gold standard.

Brad

 

[mr-x]

And California is doing far better than both, according to the same stats. I guess they are the real gold standard.

Brad

If you believe California is reporting actual numbers. 1478 deaths per 100K infections.

Oregon, where the majority of the state ignores mandates, 1353 deaths per 100K infections. Also no lines for test or vaccinations.

 

[bmugford]

If you believe California is reporting actual numbers. 1478 deaths per 100K infections.

So then we have established California has lower deaths per 100K infections than New York or Florida.
The other stats are even more impressive.

Total population (estimate) -

California - 40M
Florida - 21.5M
New York - 20M

Total infections -

California - 5.1M
Florida - 4M
New York - 3.25M

Infections per 100K people -

California - 12,750
Florida - 18,604
New York - 16,250

Total deaths -

California - 75,368
Florida - 62,390
New York - 58,960

Deaths per 100K people -

California - 188
Florida - 290
New York - 295

Looks like California is doing something right.

Brad

 

[bmugford]

Oregon, where the majority of the state ignores mandates, 1353 deaths per 100K infections. Also no lines for test or vaccinations.

That is not surprising. They don't have the same demographics and population density of states like California, NY, and Florida.

Population density -

New York - 417 people / square mile
Florida - 364 people/ square mile
California - 246 people / square mile
Oregon - 41 people / square mile

They also have a relatively high vaccination rate.

The states with higher vaccination rates should generally have lower deaths per 100K infections.

Though the numbers can get skewed, for instance New York had a lot of nursing home deaths right at the beginning, well before any vaccine existed or much was even known about the virus.

(On a side note, I think deaths per 100K people is a better metric to use than per 100K infections.)

On that metric Oregon is even more impressive, only surpassed by 6 other states.

Death rates per 100K people -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Brad

 

[mr-x]

That is not surprising. They don't have the same demographics and population density of states like California, NY, and Florida.

Population density -

New York - 417 people / square mile

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476783316288352260

Florida - 364 people/ square mile
California - 246 people / square mile

California is a huge state. Most of the center and north are rural / farm land. Majority of the population lives within an hour of the pacific ocean.

Population per mile is a useless stat imo.

Oregon - 41 people / square mile

Yup. All the assholes live in tiny Multnomah county. The southern half of the state ignores all mandates except school restrictions. School boards are all run by progressive degenerates and cowards.

They also have a relatively high vaccination rate.

Most of the population lives in about 5% of the state.

The states with higher vaccination rates should generally have lower deaths per 100K infections.

Though the numbers can get skewed, for instance New York had a lot of nursing home deaths right at the beginning, well before any vaccine existed or much was even known about the virus.

(On a side note, I think deaths per 100K people is a better metric to use than per 100K infections.)

On that metric Oregon is even more impressive, only surpassed by 6 other states.

Death rates per 100K people -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Brad

 

[bmugford]

California is a huge state. Most of the center and north are rural / farm land. Majority of the population lives within an hour of the pacific ocean.

Population per mile is a useless stat imo.

I don't really disagree with that.

Population density is not a great metric overall as you pointed out.

California has a lower population density than NY/Florida but the vast majority of population is in a few major cities.

US has a population density of 94/square mile. Australia is 9/square mile but 75% of the population lives in a handful of major cities, and no one lives in about 95% of the country.

I am just pointing out that demographics and distribution of people vary by place.

It is certainly a lot harder to stop spread of a virus in an international travel hub like New York City, with a metro population of 10M people in a relatively small area, than in rural Oregon.

Brad

 

[Cannuck]

When polled, the top two words Americans want to hear less about in 2022:

1. COVID

2. Trump

(President Biden was a top choice among Republicans, too)


https://www.axios.com/america-fears-rise-2022-poll-e6684bee-e6bf-41be-919a-caf4cf9fb951.html

 

[J Sokol]

The Covid-19 case surge is altering daily life across the US. Things will likely get worse, experts warn​

(CNN)The US is ringing in the new year amid a Covid-19 surge that experts warn is exploding at unprecedented speed and could alter daily life for many Americans during the first month of 2022.

"Omicron is truly everywhere," Dr. Megan Ranney, a professor of emergency medicine at Brown University's School of Public Health, told CNN on Friday night. "What I am so worried about over the next month or so is that our economy is going to shut down, not because of policies from the federal government or from the state governments, but rather because so many of us are ill."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/01/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Yet in my area only about 50% of people wear masks in public. I just don't get it.

 

[mr-x]

I don't really disagree with that.

Population density is not a great metric overall as you pointed out.

California has a lower population density than NY/Florida but the vast majority of population is in a few major cities.

CA has huge suburbs, that's why everyone has two cars. Public transportation can't cover the state. People drive 45, even 65 miles one way to work. Freeways are so crowded it can take three hours to go 45 miles on Friday evening, without any vehicle accidents.

In southern California the population has spread into the desert, in search of affordable homes. California is about the same size as all of Japan. Most people don't realize how big CA is and how much there is to do. The population is very mobile.

US has a population density of 94/square mile. Australia is 9/square mile but 75% of the population lives in a handful of major cities, and no one lives in about 95% of the country.

I am just pointing out that demographics and distribution of people vary by place.

It is certainly a lot harder to stop spread of a virus in an international travel hub like New York City, with a metro population of 10M people in a relatively small area, than in rural Oregon.

Brad

 

[Cannuck]

Flushing out COVID spread with wastewater signals​

With some jurisdictions limiting PCR testing for COVID-19 and others increasingly overwhelmed by diagnostic demands, experts have stressed that daily case counts no longer paint the full picture of viral levels within communities.

But what we flush down the toilet may give us a better understanding of COVID-19's prevalence.

Researchers across the country have been undertaking wastewater surveillance since early in the pandemic, looking for trace amounts of the virus in sewage to see how it's spreading.

Those involved in the laborious process say it's not a perfect measurement of COVID-19 levels, but it can help show where viral activity is propagating.

Monitoring weekly trends in wastewater can not only indicate how much virus is circulating, but which variants are driving transmission.

The process of wastewater surveillance involves collecting samples at water treatment plants and cleaning them to isolate and measure trace levels of COVID-19 particles and when testing capacity is overrun and cases are underreported, wastewater surveillance becomes particularly beneficial, they say.

“Everybody who poops into the pipe, we're going to include them in our analysis. If you start to see a spike in a particular community, you can anticipate that cases will follow fairly quickly thereby making it useful in predicting imminent outbreaks.”

https://www.cp24.com/news/flushing-...-be-useful-tool-as-testing-declines-1.5725395

 

[Cal2]

'Very unsettling': Scientists see troubling signs in humans spreading Covid to deer​

"Widespread, sustained circulation of the virus in deer could represent a risk to people if mutations in deer created a new variant. A population of wild animals harboring the virus could also retain variants that are no longer circulating among humans now, and allow them to return later.

“The sheer possibility that these things are happening and it’s unknown makes this very unsettling,” said Suresh Kuchipudi, a virologist at Pennsylvania State University. “We could be caught by surprise with a completely different variant.”

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/us/v...ovid-to-deer/ar-AASlUDJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Not to be an alarmist, but unless someone can satisfactorily explain it differently, I'm not seeing why an even faster spreading, deadlier variant than what we've experienced so far couldn't come about - whether such came from animals &/or humans. Faster, deadlier variants that also are even better than omicron at getting past current immunities.

 

[alcy]

well anyone with brain knows covid deaths are but small fraction of say cancer.. car accidents..regular flu

and yet...we dont see govts banning cars to save lives..which they.could...

aside from ruining peoples lives..biz..incomes.. controlling social lives etc.. seems now that part of their endgame.is also mandatory vaccines.. eventually they will come... if u dont want one...save some cash to pay yer way out.. seems.being unvaccinated will be.luxury and privilege only for rich...and make no mistake the rich dont get vaccinated.

 

[bmugford]

well anyone with brain knows covid deaths are but small fraction of say cancer.. car accidents..regular flu

and yet...we dont see govts banning cars to save lives..which they.could...

Cancer deaths outnumber COVID, but it is not by a massive margin. Also, cancer is not a contagious virus.

The regular flu and car accidents are not even close to COVID deaths.
(US stats)

Regular flu - Estimated deaths (2018-2019) 34,157

Cars killed 42,060 people in 2020, up from 39,107 in 2019.

Cars also have a practical and useful function. COVID does not.
Comparing car accidents to a virus is silly.

Brad

 

[Sutruk]

well anyone with brain knows covid deaths are but small fraction of say cancer.. car accidents..regular flu

and yet...we dont see govts banning cars to save lives..which they.could...

aside from ruining peoples lives..biz..incomes.. controlling social lives etc.. seems now that part of their endgame.is also mandatory vaccines.. eventually they will come... if u dont want one...save some cash to pay yer way out.. seems.being unvaccinated will be.luxury and privilege only for rich...and make no mistake the rich dont get vaccinated.

Anyone with brains knows that there have been 5,458,856 deaths worldwide till now, and most of them would be still alive if they would be vaccinated.
A lot of them died because at the time there was no vaccine. And others have died because they refused to be vaccinated.