domains We will see a 30%-50% crash in markets across the board - Predicts Andrew Rosener

[Haroon Basha]

One of the Top Domain Investor and industry expert Mr Andrew Rosener, Tweeted yesterday: "I don’t want to alarm anyone and I hate fear mongering…but, I highly suggest that unless you are completely financially independent and “free”, you should brace for impact. I believe we will see a 30%-50% crash in markets across the board. Have some physical cash on hand, raise whatever liquidity you can and cut your spending to absolute bare bones. This will be on par pr worse than 2008/9. The response will cause a spike in inflation and we will, in my opinion, see 7.5% or higher Fed Funds Rate within 12-18 months. Of course making the situation worse for most folks. Be prepared for 18-24 months of chaos, uncertainty and financial distress."

To a reader's question "what do you think is going to happen to domain values?
Rosener replies: Absolutely nothing will happen to domain values. But there won’t be much liquidity and so the price if you NEED to sell in the short term will likely be soft. Domain values are up and to the right for the foreseeable future! But the bid/ask spread for those that need or want to sell is going to widen quite a bit most likely.
Credit: Andrew Rosener is the founder and CEO of DomainX, LLC (as well as many other things), through which MediaOptions operates, which is the World’s #1 Domain Broker, and a boutique domain acquisition & domain brokerage firm specialized in ultra-premium & high value domain names.

 

[alcy]

Ok, so if You predict 0 or crash, than I will predict growth

well 0percent crash could technically mean an open end for growth heheh

 

[NameInbox]

well 0percent crash could technically mean an open end for growth heheh

 

[forge]

How about a little SRV bailout...

 

[bmugford]

US taxpayers will not be on the hook for either facility, the regulators said. But shareholders and holders of unsecured corporate bonds will not be protected by the regulators’ plan."

A bailout of Silicon Valley Bank itself was not under consideration, Yellen said in an interview with CBS Sunday.

“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out … and the reforms that have been put in place means that we’re not going to do that again,” Yellen told CBS. “But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs.”

This move limits the contagion.

Also, those parties don't deserve to get bailed out.

Investments sometimes lose money. That is a risk.
This plan leaves the rightful parties holding the bag.

The deposits though are a different story.

Brad

 

[Future Sensors]

Bailout Tracker by Propublica.

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

SVB was already present in this list. An update will probably be coming soon that reflects the latest developments.

 

[Joe drake]

Mr rosener with his great sale of nft. com for 2,000,000, he is an smart guy no doubt but he also left 18,000,000 + on the table if he would have sold a couple weeks later. ''NO ONE IS BIGGER THAN THE MARKET'' for every smart guy bailing ,theres a smarter guy buying . Best investor ever SAM ZELL

 

[bmugford]

Show attachment 233777

As of this morning, the contagion has only quickened based on the actions of the FDIC and Biden Administration. First Republic Bank will likely be seized by the end of the day and 15-20 additional banks will join them by the end of the week.

There was always going to be some fallout. Many of these banks are way overleveraged and sitting on massive unrealized losses. Much of this is due to their own risky behavior.

Explain to me how customer deposits being lost would be more beneficial. You don't think deposits being lost would lead to bank runs not just at small banks, but at the larger ones as well?

I agree though that the commingling of commercial banks and investment banks is not really a good thing.

Brad

 

[MSN-Domains]

In this case the bank itself, shareholders, etc. are going to shoulder the loss.

Vanguard top shareholder. That debt is passed onto people who thought they had a pension pot, which has now been further drained.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-based-pensions-rush-to-assess-interest-rate-risk-11666093167

The Fugazi only get's larger.

 

[MSN-Domains]

Its a lesser of many evils scenario

100%

Blue-collar Americans with pensions have been spit-roasted.

 

[J.R.]

100%

Blue-collar Americans with pensions have been spit-roasted.

Its surreal to see 2008 being repeated all over again but within the context of 40 year high inflation this time around.

How does the Fed keep hiking rates to bring down inflation to 2% threshold, but then restart bailouts to mismanaged banks causing even greater inflation?

As you said, its the blue-collar Americans that pay the price.

It will be interesting to see where these bank failures leads U.S. economy on close of Q1.

 

[MSN-Domains]

I didn't agree with Dalio at the time. But now I do

We'll have a new world order if Russia wins the Ukrainian war. Hence, Biden is throwing caution to the wind to ensure the battle is won.

If this kicks off. The dollar and the markets will capitulate. China and Russia smell blood

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635681468730028040

 

[Reallybigidea.com]

Its time for cryptos and domains because :

Dollar is getting weaker 2023
Real estate market collapse 2023
Stock market is mostly fishy like svb https://www.thestreet.com/technology/svb-ceo-sold-3-6-million-worth-of-shares-before-banks-collapse

 

[MSN-Domains]

American banking crisis is already here.

Say what you want about trump, this doesn't happen on his watch. CCP backed companies don't buy American assets for £1

https://www.ft.com/content/445e98c2-f124-4113-a9cd-53c448df4790

I'll say it again, Russia and China smell blood

 

[Reallybigidea.com]

Say what you want about trump, this doesn't happen on his watch. CCP backed companies don't buy American assets for £1

https://www.ft.com/content/445e98c2-f124-4113-a9cd-53c448df4790

I'll say it again, Russia and China smell blood

Tbh I don't believe in Russian Chinese coalition . China is not trustworthy

 

[bmugford]

Say what you want about trump, this doesn't happen on his watch. CCP backed companies don't buy American assets for £1

https://www.ft.com/content/445e98c2-f124-4113-a9cd-53c448df4790

I'll say it again, Russia and China smell blood

"HSBC buys Silicon Valley Bank’s UK unit for £1 in rescue deal".

That is not really an "American" asset when they are buying just UK operations.
It also sold for $1 because it was essentially worthless.

Brad

 

[bmugford]

Its time for cryptos and domains because :

Dollar is getting weaker 2023

The USD is still quite strong actually.

The DXY chart shows it at 103.60. That is much higher than the historic average.

The US Dollar Index, also known as DXY, is used by traders seeking a measure of the value of USD against a basket of currencies used by US trade partners. The index will rise if the Dollar strengthens against these currencies and will fall if the Dollar weakens against these currencies.

The value is actually hurting other countries currencies in comparison.

Brad

 

[Reallybigidea.com]

The USD is still quite strong actually.

The DXY chart shows it at 103.60. That is much higher than the historic average.

The US Dollar Index, also known as DXY, is used by traders seeking a measure of the value of USD against a basket of currencies used by US trade partners. The index will rise if the Dollar strengthens against these currencies and will fall if the Dollar weakens against these currencies.

The value is actually hurting other countries currencies in comparison.

Brad

Elites thinking how to redesign or change the dollar..

We need a new Bretton Woods moment, says António Guterres. What was the original Bretton Woods and what did it achieve? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/what-is-bretton-woods-agreement/​

 

[MSN-Domains]

Market prediction is like Domain Appraisal.
It's hit and miss. I may or may not happen.

Agree, as some are discussing here with big names in their portfolio.

What is the right margin of safety *if we move into uncharted territory.

As Keith has mentioned, he has already taken some Risk off the table. That is the purpose of the thread.

 

[Reallybigidea.com]

Meta planning thousands of more cuts after widespread layoffs, report says https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/meta-planning-thousands-of-more-cuts-after-widespread-layoffs.html

 

[MasterOfMyDomains]

Say it a 3rd time so were sure you have no agenda, russia and china smell blood.

Say what you want about trump, this doesn't happen on his watch. CCP backed companies don't buy American assets for £1

https://www.ft.com/content/445e98c2-f124-4113-a9cd-53c448df4790

I'll say it again, Russia and China smell blood

 

[Kingslayer]

Hang on @ReallyBigIdea.com truth will be displayed as "anti-american" propaganda

Before i posted you said in 2 posts "China and Russia smell blood" 1) because HSBC bought the UK division of SVB and 2) because a US drone came into contact with a Russian fighter.

And then you are talking about a new world order that China and Russia will lead if Russia wins the Ukraine war and how the the dollar and all US markets are going to capitulate.

Your posts are all there on previous pages for everyone to see, so when i saw this and ReallyBigIdea and remembering some things he said in the Ukraine thread, posting after one and other and feeding off each other, I said what i saw.

 

[Reallybigidea.com]

Peace love world

 

[magnificentdomains]

I got started in domaining during the 2008 financial crash. One of the reasons I continued with it is seeing the resilience of the industry throughout that time. In my experience and I'm sure others here would concur - domains have continued to sell through every macro event since then. There may be slight slow downs but on my end I mainly notice industry blips over the years. For example in that 2010 era real estate related domains were not moving but other industries like payday loans were popping off.

IMO for this industry to crash almost everything else would be too.

 

[Future Sensors]

Identity Digital, which runs hundreds of gTLDs, has warned its network of registrars not to send payments to its Silicon Valley Bank account.

https://domainincite.com/28638-identity-digital-hit-by-failure-of-silicon-valley-bank

 

[SCP Foundation]

There is certainly a reckoning coming for some of the highest risk investments though.

You can see it with the collapse of Silvergate and SVB over the last few days.

SVB specialized in higher risk loans to startups. The money in that field has gotten silly during the COVID boom. It is similar to the .COM boom. It seems there were more dollars than sense.

Lots of fake it until you make it companies will be washed away. We will see who is wearing clothes when the tide goes out.

Brad

So it's probably the consequence of all that "magic printed money" from the corona time i guess