new gtlds Rick Schwarz Predicts A "Collapse" Coming (ngTLD's)

[Silentptnr]

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

 

[jmcc]

Why .loan has almost 2MM regs? It is such a niche area, there are probably 20 times less companies around the world in the industry and even then they don't use "loan" in their name or identification )

Heavily discounted registrations and robot registrations. They aren't genuine "loan" registrations.

Regards...jmcc

 

[jmcc]

So let me get this straight. There are a whole lot of new extensions that come to the marketplace to compete with dot com essentially.

No. Most of them are trying to create their own specialised niche rather than compete with .COM as a whole. The only real "generic" is .XYZ and far from competing with .COM, it has become the new gTLDs programme's .INFO. It has large registration volume but it also has a similar boom and bust registration cycle.

Some of those domains will become premium while most of those domains in the new extensions will fail. Take sex.com and sex.xxx or sex.xyz

Not a good comparison because XYZ is generic whereas XXX is specific.

Now my question! If dot xxx and dot xyz start to falter and want to pack it in, what happens to sex.xxx?

There's an emergency procedure for failing new gTLDs. There are portfolio registry operators who own portfolios of new gTLDs and they may purchase new gTLDs that have failed to meet expectations. It has already happened. What most domainers don't understand is that once the debt issue on one of these gTLDs is resolved or reduced, there's a set of registrations that keeps renewing each year and provides an easy revenue stream. The biggest killer for some gTLDs isn't actually operations but rather marketing. Without marketing, there's no awareness.

If dot xxx is faltering does that mean that sex.xxx falters also?

It may be a firesale candidate if it falters but a registry can still operate with 50K or so high priced registrations and steady renewals. What is worrying with some new gTLDs is the renewal rate and multi-year registrations and renewals. But not all new gTLDs have these problems. Some have much better renewal rates than COM.

Regards...jmcc

 

[jmcc]

@nomen

I remember reading a tech article that said google is trying to do away with domain addresses and the URL bar. It said you simply type the business name into the search bar. That has now changed to speech making the article even more relevant.

You've got to be very careful about these Brave New World kind of articles becuase the journalists writing them are rarely techies and rarely have a Tech background. They are likely to recycle the latest but of PR fluff or press release in order to get paid for an article. The mainstream media tends to be the worst in this respect. Google has been doing a rather good job of making its own new gTLDs invisible but I think that's down to a complete lack of a clue.

Regards...jmcc

 

[jmcc]

Well .. to be honest .. after all my long posts saying you can't blanket dismiss ALL tld's nor group them all together as one category .. I will also openly admit to another fact .. lol:

Most of the currently registered non-com's are complete garbage that never should have been registered in the first place.

... HOWEVER ...

Most of the currently registered com's are complete garbage that never should have been registered in the first place.


Interestingly ... there are far more garbage .com's in existence than all combined ngTLD that even exist to date! lol

How do you know? The .COM is seen by domainers as a single TLD. It is not. It is actually a small global TLD and a large set of country level TLDs rolled into one. This is actually how most TLDs operate. They have a kind of domain name geography. What may appear to be a junk registration may have the same domain name registered in a ccTLD.

On the domain name geography side of things, TLDs actually have their own geography and some are dominated by registrants from a particular region or country. Knowing the dominant country in a TLD can help with not making stupid registration decisions and I've made some of those as have most domainers.

Regards...jmcc

 

[nomen]

@nomen

I remember reading a tech article that said google is trying to do away with domain addresses and the URL bar. It said you simply type the business name into the search bar. That has now changed to speech making the article even more relevant.

I wish I could remember where I saw it. At the time it had me a bit worried and as more time passes I am realizing that it is probably inevitable this happens. Hopefully not anytime soon, like everyone here I have too much invested but it is food for thought.

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if that happens, in a way or another. But then again, there's A LOT of businesses with the same name. What separates them online is their domain name. So makes me wonder. I don't think they will get rid off the URL bar altogether, might (probably will) reduce it's importance (like Apple with Safari), though... But even if they did, it still doesn't challenge domain names as addresses of the Internet. IMO...

 

[dordomai]

@nomen

I remember reading a tech article that said google is trying to do away with domain addresses and the URL bar. It said you simply type the business name into the search bar.

what happens if the business name is used by more than 1 entity?

Not uncommon in a global marketplace. That is why you need the .com IMO because once you have it you have a unique identifier than can used only by you.

for example a made up name like unium.

this could be an insurer, a startup, an app, a real estate company etc.

 

[jmcc]

what happens if the business name is used by more than 1 entity?

These are the most popular domain names across over 1200 TLDs for the letter 'a' from May's data by descending popularity.

| AMAZON |
| AWS |
| ABC |
| APP |
| APPLE |
| ALPHABET |
| APPS |
| ALEX |
| ART |
| ALL |
| AUTO |
| API |
| AIR |
| ALEXA |
| AND |
| ALPHA |
| AIRBNB |
| AFRICA |
| AGILE |
| ADSENSE |

They are registered in hundreds of TLDs. Some are obviously brand protection/TM registrations but some are generic. I checked the domain names for all TLDs in the set and whether the term was registered in each TLD. It ended up with a table with 150,237,308 rows with the popularity rank for each term. Of these, domain terms, 122,000,175 were only registered in one TLD.

Regards...jmcc

 

[lambo.com]

only the meaningless weak ones like xyz, com and insanely overpriced renewals like .blog

the good meaningful and reasonably priced gtlds are being traded, launched and advertised in your face

google.ai isn't going to be replaced with googleai.com anytime soon hahahaha

.com cartel et. al. have an agenda to prop up their pyramid scheme but even pharoahs die

in the meantime i'll enjoy watching the pyramid collapse (or become a tourist attraction)

Did you know that .ai is not a ngtld? It is a cctld.

This is an important distinction. There were many, many, many tlds before the ngtld program was rolled out.

So many alternatives to 'invest' or develop in notcom.

How many of the ngTLDs are 2 characters anyway? Is it 0?

As for them being "advertised in your face", is that one a fact? Where/ when are you seeing them?

Your comment about dot com dieing is emblematic of your knowledge. It's true humans can convince themselves of anything but true strength is in one's ability to pivot and change perspective when there is good reason to do so. Those who can't exhibit such flexibility will never reach their full potential as being RIGHT is more important to them than the TRUTH.

 

[promo]

Richard dont feed the troll. Especially not with any kind of sensible and reasonable commentary. It will just incense him.

 

[GoKaizen]

Rick lost tons of money on .MOBI, so yes he knows.

Rick sold flowers.mobi for 5K. He reportedly bought it for 200K.

https://www.namepros.com/threads/th...hat-will-happen-to-new-gtld-investors.971597/

Seen any good .MOBI sales recently? When is the last time you visited a .MOBI site?

He also bought and dropped a lot of .CO domains.

Rick´s experience in domain investing (talking about legacy TLDs: .COM, .NET, .ORG etc …) cannot be translated to New gTLDs.

It's actually the same players trying to claim the rules are different.

If you like new Gs so much how come your portfolio site is BrandClub.COM???

This is a different field, with different rules, players etc … a totally different game.

Good point.

Some people say save your money and buy a good .com. Well, to me it's like saying don't buy stock until you save up for Berkshire Hathaway (Which is currently $249k per share). Or like telling a youngster to not buy a car until they can buy a Ferrari.

 

[BrandClub.com]

Rick lost tons of money on .MOBI, so yes he knows.



https://www.namepros.com/threads/th...hat-will-happen-to-new-gtld-investors.971597/

Seen any good .MOBI sales recently? When is the last time you visited a .MOBI site?

He also bought and dropped a lot of .CO domains.



It's actually the same players trying to claim the rules are different.

If you like new Gs so much how come your portfolio site is BrandClub.COM???



Good point.

I missed Brand.club

 

[MapleDots]

Some people say save your money and buy a good .com. Well, to me it's like saying don't buy stock until you save up for Berkshire Hathaway (Which is currently $249k per share). Or like telling a youngster to not buy a car until they can buy a Ferrari.

OMG, I wish I could double like that

 

[GoKaizen]

You didn't want to pay much for a new gTLD and you own the .com.

I couldn`t grab BRAND.club

 

[BrandClub.com]

You didn't want to pay much for a new gTLD and you own the .com.

.CLUB domains are almost same price as .COM

 

[GoKaizen]

I'm not talking hand registering. I mean buying new Gs at a premium in the aftermarket.

It's clear you haven't made an offer or attempt to buy Brand.club and you won't.

If these are such a good opportunity again... why are you still using a .COM? Why does your username include .COM?

 

[namezest]

Everyone with a vested interest in dot com says the same and it's getting old.
Some new extensions are great, some even better than .com ending. Others are toast, were always toast and were a waste of money right?

Not to the owners, who use them as loss for tax purposes.

The collapse I predicted will be the dot com market I said it 2 years ago and the prices are all down right, fact domain money chasers account for more registrations in any extension than actual end users.

.com passed saturation point years ago, why else do you have to make up brand-able names using repeating letters as if it's cool?

Surely the gullible will buy anything, that being said we will all continue to register whatever domain takes our fancy, in whatever extension we feel like, no matter what anyone else may think. Profit or loss, success or failure.

I know I will not take too much advice from anyone with an antiquated web site, especially one with supposed millions behind it.

 

[Silentptnr]

Domain names are like art. A piece of the mind of its original creator. A vision. The beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Sure we can talk stats, but any name with a great vision can be developed and grow.

Just make that money!

 

[atinc]

Show attachment 60612

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

Rick promotes .web extension instantly on his tweeter account which is a new gTLD

&

Also, he says new gTLDs will Collapse on his tweeter.

I guess that summarize the whole thing.

For most of the domainers, Rick is an industry leader, for me, he is just a celebrity.

He owns thousands of domain names in his portfolio all .com extension, and he just sold 20 of them in 20 years.Yet the ones he sold paid him well.

And apparently, his sale curve has been affected since new gTLDs entered the market.

Why is he promoting .web? Does he own a share? - Don`t know, but sounds possible from his unstable statements.

It is for sure that he has an influence on most domainers, so his comments will affect new gTLD registries and drops, but "Fake it till you make it" won`t work on this one since he got no influence on the real market, where the decision makers are end users only!

 

[London555]

This is a guy-Mr Schwartz-that learned for the .com bust of 2000. That's exactly why he sold names like 998.com ( i'm pretty sure that was it or very similar) for over $800,000 a year ago. He knew it was the top of this cycle.

 

[London555]

Domain names are like art. A piece of the mind of its original creator. A vision. The beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Sure we can talk stats, but any name with a great vision can be developed and grow.

Just make that money!

That is sooooooooo true-how much would you have paid for TRIVAGO.com 5 yrs ago? Reg fee maybe?

 

[dordomai]

It is for sure that he has an influence on most domainers, so his comments will affect new gTLD registries and drops, but "Fake it till you make it" won`t work on this one since he got no influence on the real market, where the decision makers are end users only!

real end-users are only a few million regs out of 25 million. more than 3 quarters of the program are either investors or defensive. my guess is that if bitcoin continues to do well a lot of the Chinese registrants which make up more than 50% of all registrations will drop and invest the funds in cryptocurrency. I think that was the reason why .xyz ran this desperate 1B promo. They know that gamblers will gamble elsewhere if there are hotter assets available.

 

[Silentptnr]

In my industry...real estate...they are big investors, small investors, flippers, land buyers, condos. Mobile homes, luxury homes, etc.

Very similar to the domain industry.

I'll leave it at that.

 

[Silentptnr]

If a buyer loves new gtld...I love new gtld.
If a buyer loves .com...I love .com.

Ya get it?

Just keeping it real.

 

[Recons.Com]

I stay out of ngtlds, although I understand that there are around 5K to 10K of really good ones with most of those, I don't have time and haven't worked on developing required channels and skills to obtain and market those.

Anything beyond those doesn't make much sense to hold, especially with so many opportunities in .com

There is always market for brandables, words, word+word, acronyms etc. in .com and multiple channels for those to sell, including inbounds, that you'd probably not get on regular ngtlds...

Then factor in unpredictability of pricing with ngtlds, take backs by registries, possible collapse in future and possibility of collapse in future affecting today in downward spiral, and you'd see why many do shy away from investing in those names.

 

[atinc]

real end-users are only a few million regs out of 25 million. more than 3 quarters of the program are either investors or defensive. my guess is that if bitcoin continues to do well a lot of the Chinese registrants which make up more than 50% of all registrations will drop and invest the funds in cryptocurrency. I think that was the reason why .xyz ran this desperate 1B promo. They know that gamblers will gamble elsewhere if there are hotter assets available.

I didn`t know that 1/4 of the domains are active and 3/4 of them owned by investors.

Also

I didn`t know that Chinese registrants make 50% of all registrations.

Thanks for the insights.

But I think his comments will only affect domain registrars in this case, not the new gTLD investors.

Because still, new gTLD investors have their chance to sell their quality domains to end users.