new gtlds Rick Schwarz Predicts A "Collapse" Coming (ngTLD's)

[Silentptnr]

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

 

[shorterwinters]

In my industry...real estate...they are big investors, small investors, flippers, land buyers, condos. Mobile homes, luxury homes, etc.

Very similar to the domain industry.

I'll leave it at that.

with that said (and I have seen the similarities), when a crash happens not all segments of the market are hurt as much as others. In real estate it seems to be more about geographical location than anything on how much hurt there is, at least from what I have noticed.
Last crash, although hurt to be sure, there was not as much damage done in resort areas with limited availability and full of high end luxury as there was in other areas of the country or other segments. The pure speculative market, the stuff being built for the notches below high end luxury where the availability was far easier to come by, and non resort areas of the country...boy did that come tumbling down.

 

[Silentptnr]

with that said (and I have seen the similarities), when a crash happens not all segments of the market are hurt as much as others. In real estate it seems to be more about geographical location than anything on how much hurt there is, at least from what I have noticed.
Last crash, although hurt to be sure, there was not as much damage done in resort areas with limited availability and full of high end luxury as there was in other areas of the country or other segments. The pure speculative market, the stuff being built for the notches below high end luxury where the availability was far easier to come by...boy did that come tumbling down.

Actually, when the market crashes, it's the high end luxury that gets hit the hardest. While a $200,000 home drops 50% and loses $100k, a $2,000,000 home loses $1,000,000.

The bigger they are the harder they fall.

 

[Recons.Com]

If we do the real estate comparison, here is one to consider:

If you choose a good property with no obvious blemishes that cannot be fixed, like too narrow, too far, not good frontage, not good surrounding etc., then when market doubles the value of your property will double or even triple.

If your property comes with those irreparable blemishes, then even with doubled market you'll struggle to liquidate even at purchase price.

 

[Silentptnr]

I think what we have been talking about more of a collapse in one area versus another area, but both are homes. We can say that living in one area sucks, and those living in the other area can say how bad the other area is, but that doesn't mean it can't change. Bad areas can become better over time. Good areas can become bad over time.

I really thinks thats a good example of what has been the older, established area and the new, not yet fully developed area.

 

[offthehandle]

Yes, wouldn't be surprised if that happens, in a way or another. But then again, there's A LOT of businesses with the same name. What separates them online is their domain name. So makes me wonder. I don't think they will get rid off the URL bar altogether, might (probably will) reduce it's importance (like Apple with Safari), though... But even if they did, it still doesn't challenge domain names as addresses of the Internet. IMO...

If goo g keeps monopolizing and increasing their control over users, they might find a way to make using a memorized name less relevant as in voice oriented browser designs or hide prominent display of the URL at the address bar of their Chrome Browser. Chrome the last I checked is 60% market share and growing. Nobody I know unless apple owner downloads a Safari browser to a PC, but Chrome is used for many reasons and features wanted by users on Apple Products.

QR codes are another variable. If you are a startup company and cant afford GreatCandy.com because some domainer wants $25,000., the enduser instead buys GreatCandyCompanyLasVegas.com, and all your marketing materials and ads have a QR code since nobody will remember that log URL.

Read some of @Kassey Lee writing about trading QR codes in china. Interesting.

 

[shorterwinters]

Actually, when the market crashes, it's the high end luxury that gets hit the hardest. While a $200,000 home drops 50% and loses $100k, a $2,000,000 home loses $1,000,000.

The bigger they are the harder they fall.

I am sure you know real estate better than me, no doubt but I am going from my experience in the construction industry building trophy homes and the real estate (what I know about it) industry here.
The area where I am wasn't hurt like the rest of the country. Yes, values fell but it did not crash at the real high end. There is such a limited availability of property/real estate here (and other similar resort areas) it seems to be somewhat insulated. I saw the $200,000-$500,00 homes drop 50% but the 3-4 million dollar homes and up only seemed to drop 30% or so. 3-4 cycles over the last 25-35 years it seems with the last one being the worst it has never caught up here like most of the rest of the country. It hurts for sure but not as much as elsewhere it seems.
From what I noticed in that and comparing it to this is that "myangrystepmother.com", although it will crash will not get as hurt as "myangrystepmothers.com" or "myangrystepmother.xyz".
just my two cents and ramblings.

 

[Silentptnr]

If goo g keeps monopolizing and increasing their control over users, they might find a way to make using a memorized name less relevant as in voice oriented browser designs or hide prominent display of the URL at the address bar of their Chrome Browser. Chrome the last I checked is 60% market share and growing. Nobody I know unless apple owner downloads a Safari browser to a PC, but Chrome is used for many reasons and features wanted by users on Apple Products.

QR codes are another variable. If you are a startup company and cant afford GreatCandy.com because some domainer wants $25,000., the enduser instead buys GreatCandyCompanyLasVegas.com, and all your marketing materials and ads have a QR code since nobody will remember that log URL.

Read some of @Kassey Lee writing about trading QR codes in china. Interesting.

Yes, but Microsoft is making it nearly impossible to load Chrome on windows 10 and it doesn't allow you to set Chrome as default as far as I can see. It's getting really dog-eat-dog out there in browser land.

 

[Silentptnr]

I am sure you know real estate better than me, no doubt but I am going from my experience in the construction industry building trophy homes and the real estate (what I know about it) industry here.
The area where I am wasn't hurt like the rest of the country. Yes, values fell but it did not crash at the real high end. There is such a limited availability of property/real estate here (and other similar resort areas) it seems to be somewhat insulated. I saw the $200,000-$500,00 homes drop 50% but the 3-4 million dollar homes and up only seemed to drop 30% or so. 3-4 cycles over the last 25-35 years it seems with the last one being the worst it has never caught up here like most of the rest of the country. It hurts for sure but not as much as elsewhere it seems.
From what I noticed in that and comparing it to this is that "myangrystepmother.com", although it will crash will not get as hurt as "myangrystepmothers.com" or "myangrystepmother.xyz".
just my two cents and ramblings.

Only thing I'll add to the real estate analogy is that you could buy two houses for $200k each. One will appreciate greatly and the one in the desert will appreciate at a much less if at all.

 

[shorterwinters]

Only thing I'll add to the real estate analogy is that you could buy two houses for $200k each. One will appreciate greatly and the one in the desert will appreciate at a much less if at all.

Bingo. Exactly.
mysevenwives.com or mysevenwives.xyz......

 

[MapleDots]

es, but Microsoft is making it nearly impossible to load Chrome on windows 10 and it doesn't allow you to set Chrome as default as far as I can see. It's getting really dog-eat-dog out there in browser land.

How so?
I run the latest version of windows ten. When I set up I used edge and typed in google chrome. I then downloaded chrome and off I went. Google is automatically the default on chrome.

I refused to register an email address with windows and never use cortina (hell not even sure if I spelled that right)

I am google all the way and over 50% of all internet traffic goes through the chrome browser. I am with @offthehandle on this one, they will eventually do away with the url bar and the way we use the internet will dramatically change. I mentioned this several times already.... here is an example...

OK google.... go to cnn - if there is more than one then it will ask you which one.
No URL required, just voice. The idea of typing anything in the future will feel like the stone ages.

 

[Silentptnr]

How so?
I run the latest version of windows ten. When I set up I used edge and typed in google chrome. I then downloaded chrome and off I went. Google is automatically the default on chrome.

I refused to register an email address with windows and never use cortina (hell not even sure if I spelled that right)

I am google all the way and over 50% of all internet traffic goes through the chrome browser. I am with @offthehandle on this one, they will eventually do away with the url bar and the way we use the internet will dramatically change. I mentioned this several times already.... here is an example...

OK google.... go to cnn - if there is more than one then it will ask you which one.
No URL required, just voice. The idea of typing anything in the future will feel like the stone ages.

If you go to make chrome the default browser, what happens? No matter how I do it on my tablet I can't make it stick.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/10/15609706/google-chrome-windows-10-s-app-restrictions

http://bgr.com/2017/05/10/google-chrome-windows-10-s/

 

[MapleDots]

Ahhh, you have a windows tablet? I was talking on a desktop.

That is a bit problematic and Microsoft will interfere with that as long as they get away with it.

 

[Asfas1000]

OK google.... go to cnn - if there is more than one then it will ask you which one.
No URL required, just voice. The idea of typing anything in the future will feel like the stone ages.

What about searching for sites that are not businesses, like blogs or personal websites or Flash games.

 

[offthehandle]

Yes, but Microsoft is making it nearly impossible to load Chrome on windows 10 and it doesn't allow you to set Chrome as default as far as I can see. It's getting really dog-eat-dog out there in browser land.

I was forced to upgrade laptops and bought a new one with 10 on one of my replacements from Vista earlier this year. I dont use Chrome so, thanks for the tip. Yesterday I couldnt connect to my router with a win 10 bug it has but my older apple I could. I see no real improvements with 10, just more fluff and feature creep of stuff I will never use.

Speaking of browser problems, I used a perfectly good fast, intel cpu based MacBook Running ios 10.5.8, until last August. Apple wont allow any IOS upgrade, so that means I cannot use any newer browsers and my bank wont allow me to use older browser. Nor will it allow some stupid Adobe upgrade, that I dont want anyway. So a perfectly good older 2007 Laptop is worthless other than limited uses.

I paid more for the MacBook laptop, than my first used car.

Imagine if a car manufacturer did that, no possibilty of use after 10 years, they wouldnt get away with it. But tech companies products get away with this disposable product paradigm and lifecycles are getting shorter, it us such a scam.

 

[MapleDots]

I was thinking

What about searching for sites that are not businesses, like blogs or personal websites or Flash games.

How do you search for a blog now?
It will be exactly the same via voice search and it will display results. Google is already leaving out the .com part of a lot of searches. Eventually they will show you the title of the website with no url.

I hope to god I am wrong because I am in the domaining business but I fear the internet URL life span is and will come to a close. Now I just tap my phone to pay, no card, no pin, no nuthing just a tap, Android pay does the rest. Eventually surfing will be just as seamless, no forward button, no back, no url, just your voice and the system will ask for feedback to assure it displays the correct results. No way on gods green earth that it will display a URL, google will deem that not necessary at some point and when one does it all the others follow.

I'm getting a bit depressed thinking about it

 

[offthehandle]

How so?

OK google.... go to cnn - if there is more than one then it will ask you which one.
No URL required, just voice. .

Google changed their display results on search once again, I noticed they are taking up a lot more screen real estate with top results being their own definitions, suggestions and photos, dictionary and other crap, forcing the best organic rankings down to second page. Its almost like the propaganda spewed out from news media, and the alternative is Yahoo's page is top heavy with slow loading advertising, its unusable. Bing or DuckDuckGo I wish were as good I would switch.

 

[Asfas1000]

How do you search for a blog now?
It will be exactly the same via voice search and it will display results. Google is already leaving out the .com part of a lot of searches. Eventually they will show you the title of the website with no url.

I hope to god I am wrong because I am in the domaining business but I fear the internet URL life span is and will come to a close. Now I just tap my phone to pay, no card, no pin, no nuthing just a tap, Android pay does the rest. Eventually surfing will be just as seamless, no forward button, no back, no url, just your voice and the system will ask for feedback to assure it displays the correct results. No way on gods green earth that it will display a URL, google will deem that not necessary at some point and when one does it all the others follow.

I'm getting a bit depressed thinking about it

Well I don't think it is that easy, at least for now. For instance, I have some bookmarks, saved under certain categories, and each bookmark goes to a specific url, let's say an article in a blog or a YT video or whatever. How is that going to be replaced ? Will I need to remember things ? If yes, then it is not practical.

 

[MackieMesser]

Something I have mentioned elsewhere:

Not only technology evolves and gets "better", also human language (spoken and written) as well as the ways to communicate with each other (orally and written) changes/shifts/evolves.

Language has always changed and technology had a major impact on it.

I'm pretty sure that the above mentioned will have an impact on domains and domaining, too. The question is when this impact will be visible and when the impact will be inducing major changes. Five, ten, twenty, fifty or hundred years?

Language changes normally were a long-term thing, but it might be that current and near-future technological developments boost this change.

 

[Smiles76]

I believe the collapse is coming in the value of most keyword domains. Originally, keyword domains were very valuable because of boost that they received in the search engines. Now, all the major search engines are moving away from that and more towards branding. Also, people are used to brands in their everyday lives. I have yet to visit a coffee shop just called "coffee shop" or a restaurant called "nice restaurant". I can see a time coming when people will look back and laugh at the fact that people used to use keyword based domains.

 

[Silentptnr]

Something I have mentioned elsewhere:

Not only technology evolves and gets "better", also human language (spoken and written) as well as the ways to communicate with each other (orally and written) changes/shifts/evolves.

Language has always changed and technology had a major impact on it.

I'm pretty sure that the above mentioned will have an impact on domains and domaining, too. The question is when this impact will be visible and when the impact will be inducing major changes. Five, ten, twenty, fifty or hundred years?

Language changes normally were a long-term thing, but it might be that current and near-future technological developments boost this change.

Like covfefe!

 

[Silentptnr]

I believe the collapse is coming in the value of most keyword domains. Originally, keyword domains were very valuable because of boost that they received in the search engines. Now, all the major search engines are moving away from that and more towards branding. Also, people are used to brands in their everyday lives. I have yet to visit a coffee shop just called "coffee shop" or a restaurant called "nice restaurant". I can see a time coming when people will look back and laugh at the fact that people used to use keyword based domains.

I think some EMD's are very important and valuable. But, I agree, with meta tags, we don't always need EMD's.

 

[Smiles76]

I think some EMD's are very important and valuable. But, I agree, with meta tags, we don't always need EMD's.

Their importance is diminishing each and every day from an SEO and even marketing perspective. As someone who does SEO, I just avoid them all together.

 

[Smiles76]

Rick promotes .web extension instantly on his tweeter account which is a new gTLD

&

Also, he says new gTLDs will Collapse on his tweeter.

I guess that summarize the whole thing.

For most of the domainers, Rick is an industry leader, for me, he is just a celebrity.

He owns thousands of domain names in his portfolio all .com extension, and he just sold 20 of them in 20 years.Yet the ones he sold paid him well.

And apparently, his sale curve has been affected since new gTLDs entered the market.

Why is he promoting .web? Does he own a share? - Don`t know, but sounds possible from his unstable statements.

It is for sure that he has an influence on most domainers, so his comments will affect new gTLD registries and drops, but "Fake it till you make it" won`t work on this one since he got no influence on the real market, where the decision makers are end users only!

I agree with the vast majority of what you said. But, in domaining the vast majority of domains are sold to other domainers not end users. So, in a lot of ways, domainers not end-users are the decision makers.

 

[Silentptnr]

UPDATE!

Rick Schwartz has said more about his investing strategy today.

https://onlinedomain.com/2017/06/07/domain-name-news/rick-schwartzs-domain-name-strategy/

I'm just not sure I understand taking a position of being above domainer. What is there above domainers? Domain investment gurus? I think there is a thread here on NP where people put a professional title on what we do.

The line in the article that says "Rick Schwartz never answers inquiries from domainers", is a bit confusing to me.

Otherwise, really motivating! Thanks Mr. Schwartz!

 

[Smiles76]

I think some .com prophets get overly defensive when discussing topics like this. Even if every NGTLD went under, that doesn't necessarily make YOUR portfolio more valuable. But, if does make Rick's portfolio more valuable because of the ultra premium names he own. If he owned coffeeshop.com for example and was asking $500,000 ,he certainly doesn't want to see coffee.shop available for $50,000.