new gtlds Rick Schwarz Predicts A "Collapse" Coming (ngTLD's)

[Silentptnr]

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

 

[Want2learn]

Quite simply for the reasons you said plus traffic bleed. I have the .org of my first name and sometimes I enter the email as .com when entering forms .. lol

Also analogue advertising relies on memorability .. and while you advertise sex.xxx .. 48 hours after being exposed to your ad the potential client will go visit sex.com. That's the very concept the ngTLD's are fighting. It's a shame ICANN hasn't put any of the millions collected from the auctions into a public awareness campaign (but that's another subject .. lol). This WILL change .. in time .. but .com is still the default.




This has happened previously with a few 3rd level domains ... (example.com.com is an example of what those look like).

Google or NP search "Sunset" .. you'll see a few actual examples of domain levels closing their doors.

Long story short .. yes .. the domains cease to exist .. bye bye any money invested.


So while I feel and have repeated many times that total numbers of domains a ngTLD has is completely irrelevant to the valuation of a domain .. that obviously does not include the risk you have of a TLD going bankrupt (Sunsetting) .. for that the actual numbers do matter to validate whether the business is solid or at risk.

So as an end user I am almost certainly not going to pay XXXXXX for love dot dot if I think dot dot is in danger of a collapse. If love dot com is worth XXXXXXX love dot dot should have some high residual value!! But imo it is limited.

Now if there ever was a governmental safeguard of some sort that preserved registered domains regardless of the "family" extension, then dot com could on a domain by domain case be rivaled by the new extensions.

 

[Ategy]

So if dot xxx starts to really collapse, registered domains are safe?

No!

It is a funny cycle though. It is very self serving to not want 1000s of new extensions. If I own love dot com the only thing that truly could rival it is another love and new extension. Perhaps love.love could rival love dot com. Maybe love dot sex would rival love dot com. Now how does love dot sky really compare to love dot com?

You'd need to go read the hundreds of threads that discuss the reasons any gTLD is different from .com (even .net and .org)

At the end of the day it's all about memorability and marketing and consumer confidence ...

The total spend of ads containing ".com" likely is into the TRILLIONS of dollars.

People remember and default to the .com more than anything else.

Some people don't even understand that jointhe.club is an actual domain that resolves to an actual site. Even if they do .. it's also a trust factor.


So many things play into this .. again .. it's not a ngTLD thing .. it's basically anything non-com .. heck .. even ccTLD's suffer traffic bleed to .com .. lol

 

[Ategy]

So as an end user I am almost certainly not going to pay XXXXXX for love dot dot if I think dot dot is in danger of a collapse. If love dot com is worth XXXXXXX love dot dot should have some high residual value!! But imo it is limited.

While some would say any specific TLD is worth x% of .com (like .net was always said to be 10% of .com in the past) .. I personally STRONGLY DISAGREE with associating any sort of fixed % relationship of any kind between TLD's ... ONLY evaluate domains on an individual one by one basis.

Where the TLD does come into play however .. is when you ask if the TLD is viable or not .. like how a few of the heavily discounted ngTLD's are increasingly being associated with spam. Then in turn having all email blindly blocked by company IT officers. So while Business.xyz might seem cool and to hold value ... at the end of the day it's a useless domain for a business because they would never be able to rely on their email.

Or obviously if only a few hundred domains have been registered in the TLD and there is very little further growth expected. There are fees and other costs associated with running a TLD. After the initial ~$180,000 base price PLUS any auction amount, there is also a minimum of $25,000 that ICANN charges .. so essentially if the sum of all registrations do not come close to about $50,000 .. then one could say there most certainly is a risk the TLD's future could be in doubt.

Now if there ever was a governmental safeguard of some sort that preserved registered domains regardless of the "family" extension, then dot com could on a domain by domain case be rivaled by the new extensions.

When some of the new TLD's do eventually go bankrupt then they would likely sell the TLD just like any other asset. Theoretically I'm thinking if this ever does happen and nobody actually does buy the TLD, then the best alternative would likely be for ICANN to re-auction the TLD. Then if nobody wants it they could either sunset .. or use part of their monstrous piles of cash to pay a "Registry Operator" to maintain existing domains.

Such TLDs would likely be avoided by small registries .. but because of scale, one of the giants like Donuts or Afilias or RightSide could easily fold this into their business with little extra overhead costs, if any.

 

[NameVP]

A collapse IMO is on its way. Especially if ICANN allows

.com domains will hold but most other gTLD's will drop even further.

I seriously think now is the time to sell good gTDL's.

If not, I have a really nice McMansion to sell you back in 2006.

Just a feeling.

 

[ResoluteDomains]

I sure wish @Rick Schwartz would weigh in. Sometimes more than 140 characters is good!

Someone posted a reply to a comment to that effect on here:
http://morganlinton.com/where-do-you-go-to-get-realistic-domain-investing-advice/

 

[Digital Nomad]

When I first started domaining in 2011, I was excited about the new "opportunity" of .CO and I bought thousands of dollars of domains, I even bought many many .NETs! And I did read about @Rick Schwartz saying only buying .COM but I thought I knew better and had to see for myself.

Some years later after only two sales in .CO and one in .NET I dropped all thousands of names and bought only .COMs such as Rick suggested! Within 2 months I sold my first name into the thousands of dollars, since then I was hooked. Now I have sold into the 6 figures and rising, all .COMs! Rick has thought me a great many things, but first I had to fail to really understand his point of view. Maybe a lesson for these new gTLDs too for others? I do not know, but I do not own even 1 gTLD! I am not saying you cannot earn money with these, but the chances are much much much greater with a .COM, less risky. PS this is just a opinion and a personal experience!

 

[buywebsites.biz]

Strategies that work in the .com sandbox don't work in the larger field of gTLDs.

there is just too much supply and little demand. do the math.

Exactly that. The divide-up-the-pie-and-wait strategy doesn't really make sense when someone can jump to a bunch of different TLDs that would be just as good. There is still a play in gTLDs, but it's not the buy-and-hold strategy that's worked for .com domainers. Hosting companies / smart home devices could be carving out a section of the gTLD space to add value to their existing service offering.

So, what happens when this crash of gtld's comes and the registries fold? The owners of the extensions who rely on them as their web address will scramble to get a .com..

That's a domainer mindset. Endusers will still be spoiled for choices as far as GTLDs go. If this is a domain value crash, then the wave was bound to hit sooner or later. GTLDs = good for endusers, not domainers.

 

[toughdomains]

Show attachment 60612

What do you think? Based on Rick's tweets, I believe he is referring to new gTLDs.

def referring to gTLD as evident in his hash.

some gTLDs will def die and its already happening.

Others will stay for ever...(cant see xyz going away after Google rebrand)

And more $$ will be pumped into new extensions (wordpress paying $19 mil for .blog)

If gTLDs succeed many of the investors long in .coms (like Rick will see their portfolio value decrease - not evaporate but descrease)

if middle.man takes off his middleman.com will be worth(less)

 

[888domainsale]

When I first started domaining in 2011, I was excited about the new "opportunity" of .CO and I bought thousands of dollars of domains, I even bought many many .NETs! And I did read about @Rick Schwartz saying only buying .COM but I thought I knew better and had to see for myself.

Some years later after only two sales in .CO and one in .NET I dropped all thousands of names and bought only .COMs such as Rick suggested! Within 2 months I sold my first name into the thousands of dollars, since then I was hooked. Now I have sold into the 6 figures and rising, all .COMs! Rick has thought me a great many things, but first I had to fail to really understand his point of view. Maybe a lesson for these new gTLDs too for others? I do not know, but I do not own even 1 gTLD! I am not saying you cannot earn money with these, but the chances are much much much greater with a .COM, less risky. PS this is just a opinion and a personal experience!

Well said my friend...one thing for sure...like any industry...experience matters...and stick to .com's and no looking back. Good luck everyone.Thanks!!

 

[Digital Nomad]

Well said my friend...one thing for sure...like any industry...experience matters...and stick to .com's and no looking back. Good luck everyone.Thanks!!

I think it is so important for everyone, which was truly the greatest lesson he ever gave me and everyone else who will listen, so I had to start a new thread in the hope that people will see (my very first thread to help all of NamePros' community): https://www.namepros.com/threads/greatest-lesson-learned-from-rick-schwartz.1022998/

 

[lambo.com]

Not all will collapse no, great keyword combinations between the left and the right of the dot will grow in value IMO, for example send.money, save.money, quit.today, healthy.living etc. Why? The power of marketing. Domainers tend to forget some domains are very useful as marketing tools themselves due their powerful memorability.

not memorable, bad TRUST signals conveyed and will always be UNFAMILIAR.

In the U.K, they couldn't care less about the tld so there are EXCEPTIONS (re: trust)

ngtlds compete with each other, endless competition but almost no demand (correction: can't be a competition then). High renewals in many cases but no JUSTIFICATION for your perfect buyer to pay a large price for it. After all, you know they can say, 'meh, NEXT!'

ngtld extensions: 1/ too long 2/ pointless 3/ both

A developed site on Send.money would shout SPAM, DO NOT TRUST, SHADY PERSON BEHIND THIS !

Quit.today and healthy.living, well...

QuitToday.com is undeveloped and HealthyLiving.com doesn't resolve. TONS of amazing dot com domains are undeveloped.

Maybe I should create a support group at wishful.thinking

 

[Ategy]

Others will stay for ever...(cant see xyz going away after Google rebrand)

I think the fact Google got this domain but has since not really done anything with it says much more about .xyz than anything else.

*IF* there was going to be one end user to develop an .xyz domain, it would have been a company named Alphabet with abc.xyz!

As opposed to 99.99% other .xyz domains out there, abc.xyz is one of the very few that actually has context between left-side and right-side of the dot .. it kinda rhymes and has a smart play with start and finish of the alphabet. abc.xyz would be one of a very very few domains I'd be happy to actually own in .xyz despite everything else going against it.

But 99.99% of .xyz domains with the exception of ultra short (2L, 3N and very select premium single words) have no real context with the letters/term "XYZ". Plus of those few 0.01%, most likely have ridiculous premium pricing for renewals. That 99.99% have no left.right synergy, and therefore only have the negative aspects of .xyz associated with them as any TLD that will give below cost discounts to the point where spammers ruin the entire TLD.

.xyz is dead in the water and only going down unless by some miracle they can get the spam under control immediately before too many companies blanket block all emails from all .xyz domains.

If gTLDs succeed many of the investors long in .coms (like Rick will see their portfolio value decrease - not evaporate but descrease)
if middle.man takes off his middleman.com will be worth(less)

That isn't necessarily true either .. the overall end-user market for domains is ever-growing .. and will be for a while. Perhaps not at the rate of the past, but there are still plenty more companies and businesses to come online .. and they all need good domains!

While the ones with the biggest wallets will go for premium and ultra-premium .com's .. the vast majority will be looking for domains in the more modest $x,xxx 4-figure budget (or less unfortunately .. lol)!

I see a future where good 2-3 word .coms domains AND good single key-term non-coms domains BOTH grow to fill that ever-growing $x,xxx market ... with the common denominator between both being that regardless of being .com or non-.com .. they must be GOOD DOMAINS!

As I mentioned elsewhere .. there will be a time where Authorise.co and YoureAuthorised.com will be seen as similar in desirability .. one could argue that as time progresses and non-com awareness increases, the shorter non-coms might even move up versus the longer non-com's (although in most cases it's really specific to the actual domains in question). There is no doubt that the domain every end-user really wants is Authorise.com .. but as prices go up for 1-word .com's, and good multi-word .com AND good 1-word non-com's should both see growth!


Now obviously at the end of the day the real question is what makes either a 2-3 word .com domain or a 1-word non-com good .. lol .. but that's a discussion altogether!

 

[BrandClub.com]

Rick´s experience in domain investing (talking about legacy TLDs: .COM, .NET, .ORG etc …) cannot be translated to New gTLDs. This is a different field, with different rules, players etc … a totally different game. Anyone who started investing in New gTLDs from the begining has absolutely the same experience as Rick does in this NEW domaining business, so what he is sharing out there is only his very own opinion.

 

[lambo.com]

Rick´s experience in domain investing (talking about legacy TLDs: .COM, .NET, .ORG etc …) cannot be translated to New gTLDs. This is a different field, with different rules, players etc … a totally different game. Anyone who started investing in New gTLDs from the begining has absolutely the same experience as Rick does in this NEW domaining business, so what he is sharing out there is only his very own opinion.

It's the domaining business, not "new domaining business". His experience is directly translated to ngTLDs.

When you say it's different, maybe you take your eyes off the prize. ALL THAT MATTERS is supply, demand and knowing your prospective buyer and perhaps most importantly, if such a person exists.

 

[Ategy]

Well .. to be honest .. after all my long posts saying you can't blanket dismiss ALL tld's nor group them all together as one category .. I will also openly admit to another fact .. lol:

Most of the currently registered non-com's are complete garbage that never should have been registered in the first place.

... HOWEVER ...

Most of the currently registered com's are complete garbage that never should have been registered in the first place.


Interestingly ... there are far more garbage .com's in existence than all combined ngTLD that even exist to date! lol

At the end of the day ...

We'd ALL love to own: Authorise.com
I'm happy to own: Authorise.co
I think some would be more or less equally happy to own: YoureAuthorised.com
Everybody can agree this isn't worth anything short/medium term: YoureAuthorised.xyz

 

[BrandClub.com]

It's the domaining business, not "new domaining business". His experience is directly translated to ngTLDs.

When you say it's different, maybe you take your eyes off the prize. ALL THAT MATTERS is supply, demand and knowing your prospective buyer and perhaps most importantly, if such a person exists.

This is a different field, with different rules, players etc … a totally different game.

 

[lambo.com]

This is a different field, with different rules, players etc … a totally different game.

Ok mate, whatever helps you through the day!

 

[Silentptnr]

The reality is that currently the first choice is .com. There is no debating that. My own portfolio is 85% .com. But if a small business wants a short, meaningful domain and has no plan to buy adwords or get fancy seo, the new gTLDs might be a solution.

No question every investor wants the six figure deal but the $200 sale isn't bad if you paid a regular reg fee.

.com domains are the most sought after, but are most expensive in the aftermarket. Too expensive for a lot of small businesses. Too expensive for many domain investors even.

Some people say save your money and buy a good .com. Well, to me it's like saying don't buy stock until you save up for Berkshire Hathaway (Which is currently $249k per share). Or like telling a youngster to not buy a car until they can buy a Ferrari.

I have already said I'm not into premium priced gtlds, but I do like how some look and sound. I certainly not against them. I like the affordable alternative.

Maybe these additional extensions will make the .Com even more valuable. I think there's a place for any name a person or business might buy.

There are much bigger threats to domain investments than one tld versus another.

 

[Rhythm8]

only the meaningless weak ones like xyz, com and insanely overpriced renewals like .blog

the good meaningful and reasonably priced gtlds are being traded, launched and advertised in your face

google.ai isn't going to be replaced with googleai.com anytime soon hahahaha

.com cartel et. al. have an agenda to prop up their pyramid scheme but even pharoahs die

in the meantime i'll enjoy watching the pyramid collapse (or become a tourist attraction)

 

[offthehandle]

We'd ALL love to own: Authorise.com

Lol. Have to kid with you here... Authorized.com, is the correct spelling sorry. Lol. I would never register that or Colour.com, or Lorry.com... all better for the .UK extensions. Almost like EnglishName.DE

 

[dordomai]

google.ai isn't going to be replaced with googleai.com anytime soon hahahaha

.

google.com is not going to be replaced by search.google anytime soon and neither facebook.com will be replaced by face.book. so your junk is not going to be valuable.

 

[dordomai]

I don't think Rick gets it always right,he is not a prophet or a genius but he does understand the market better than most and has more experience in this biz than most of us will ever have.

he is just pointing out the obvious and he is not getting paid to do so unlike some other sell-outs.

 

[Sanwal]

What collapse?
Was there ever a rise?

 

[nomen]

There is no real time for domains, they too will disappear over the next 10 years or so. In fact it might happen a lot sooner and all domainers will be out of business.

With Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple... just say

OK Google (or similar) go to cnn
No .com, no .net... nada, zilch, zip, doda

Does not matter if a domain is just an ip address.
Even in y car, I just hook up my pixel phone and it knows where I am going in a flash. I go to costco every Sunday morning. I plug in my phone and it is already mapping me.

Wow, Wow, Wow

Does any domainer have the luxury of time anymore?

No offense but you're kind of missing the point of domains in general as being unique identifiers. Cnn.com is a unique identifier whereas cnn is just a random acronym (albeit it's an acronym of a well-known news outlet as well). Sure, voice recognition will probably reduce typing in domains but so did search.

Also, offline advertising, billboards and whatnot. And more than anything else, email. Not going anywhere any time soon.

I reckon that the importance of domains is increasing rather than decreasing. Everything will be an online brand at some point, i.e. everything will be online or simply not exist. That real estate, digital real estate, will have a hierarchy, something is deemed more valuable than something else, just like offline real estate.

IMO...

 

[MapleDots]

@nomen

I remember reading a tech article that said google is trying to do away with domain addresses and the URL bar. It said you simply type the business name into the search bar. That has now changed to speech making the article even more relevant.

I wish I could remember where I saw it. At the time it had me a bit worried and as more time passes I am realizing that it is probably inevitable this happens. Hopefully not anytime soon, like everyone here I have too much invested but it is food for thought.