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Reported sales in new gTLDs - oh well, we are still comparing oranges to apples!

Labeled as discuss in Domain Extensions started by lolwarrior, Nov 2, 2018.

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  1. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    I think when new gTLDs sales are reported, we are in many cases truly comparing oranges to apples.
    There are 2 main problems:

    A) Ignorance of renewal fees: if you go to reliable source like namebio.com. you can filter for example aftermarket sales of .store extension. When you sort it by price, you see that highest reported sale so far is coin / store for 26 705 USD, and second one is aloyoga / store for 2408 USD. So far so good, this is clear, one is for 26 705 USD and one is for 2408 USD, no big deal.

    But actually, there is a huge difference: afaik coin/store has premium renewal around 26k each year, while aloyoga / store has normal standard renewal for .store, which is between 7-45 at most registrars.

    So, what is the actual selling price of coin / store which should be reported to reflect this huge difference?
    If you report this simply is 26k, you ignore the fact that it is 26k every year. If it is registered for next 10 years, it is basically 260k sale. In another words, it is similar to 260k sale of .com, where payment terms are agreed as devided into 10 yearly payments of 26k.

    But you do not know about that, because sales are reported, but renewal are not.

    B) What about existing registrations?: recently someone asked me if it is true that such nice extension like .properties does not sell well. I asked the guy where this information comes from??? He told me, he filtered ".properties" extension in namebio.com, and there are only 3 sales reported, with keywords Pune, Sex and Foreclosure, sold for small prices of 995, 150 and 110. He thus concluded that this extension does not sell well, and there is no interest if only 3 such records are there in namebio.

    I told him that (of course) reality of this extension is very very different:
    a) There are more then 13000 domain names registered in this extension
    b) All reasonable names are registered, almost nothing is left available (I have analysed this extensively)
    c) Most good names are continuosly registered since General Availability, since Jun 2014
    d) And the best part: many of those names are registered even when they carry higher premium renewals. Examples: keyword "dream" costs around 900/year, "usa" the same, "lasvegas" is for 120/year, etc.

    So remember this: sources like namebio.com report aftermarket sales of new gTLDs, when someone is selling their names via venues like Sedo, Flippa or Afernic. But the fact that registrants are holding their names, and are paying even high renewals each year for them, and that there are hundreds or thousands of such names in given extension, is simply not reported in namebio (as those are not aftermarket sales).

    In other words : at the moment, if you do not know anything about new gTLDs, and you will just filter namebio, you will get information that name 'foreclosure / properties sold for 110 in 2015 (and reason for that is that someone tried to flip it - not quite succesfully - in first year after acquisition, and this is recorded), but you will completely miss information about dozens/hundreds of names like dream/properties, which are registered from the very beginning and for which the registrants are paying anything between 120- 900 / year.

    So such filtering alone will simply not give you a real status of that particular extension.

    As a consequence of this over reliance on namebio, you can get this type of beautiful appraisal of your new gTLD name, check it here. Logic here goes like this: I am going to appraise your .capital domain name...I will have a quick look at namebio...ooh, I see only 7 reported aftermarket sales, so ..ehm...your name has no value..

    I honestly find this rudiculous. This is the new peak of oversimplification of new gTLDs, but this appraisal made me to write this post, so it migh be useful after all.

    So I think we are mixing oranges with apples and also bananas in many instances, particularly when we ignore fact that renewal fees play major role when it comes to new gTLDs.

    Your opinions are welcome :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
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  2. creataweb

    creataweb Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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  3. wormfood

    wormfood /_/_/\ Gold Account VIP

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    but how many .properties have websites? vs how many .com have website
    isn't that more important than number registered
     
  4. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    That's the beautiful picture @creataweb :)
     
  5. wormfood

    wormfood /_/_/\ Gold Account VIP

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    "guys, there are only 3 reported sales in this extension on the major sales-reporting website that gathers information from big marketplaces. might not be such a wise investment. speculate at your own risk.
    haha look at that, sex.properties is one of them..what a joke. and there are no four figure sales."

    "no, no, you are missing a huge point. there are some registrants paying registries hundreds of dollars in renewal fees for the premium keywords (I can't say if it's mostly domainers or businesses but anyway..) so that shows people are willing to pay up for these new TLDs."

    "then why doesn't it show in the reported sales?"

    "statistical anomaly. and new TLD sellers like privacy. and stuff."
     
  6. JB Lions

    JB Lions Santa Hat Connoisseur VIP

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    ? Seems like you're trying to inflate the actual selling price, since it's not really looking that good when people use Namebio. If a new gtld sold for $26,000, it sold for $26,000, not $260,000
     
  7. wwwweb

    wwwweb Top Member VIP

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    I bought into both .com, and gtlds since day 1.

    This is not an easy road, you needed to invest heavy, and have a lot to pay for rewnals. So you simply weren’t renting them, only to give the back to the registry after having paid hundreds without results which many have done.

    you talk got talk, you have your own site, with hundreds of gtlds listed, let’s talk about your sales apples to apples... convince us from your own data, you been at this for a while, let’s hear the results.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  8. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    Yes exactly :) I am trying to show here, that when registry sells something like coin / store, it is not enough to report it as 26k sale without any further information.

    If that would be .com, we can report it like that, because we can basically neglect those 10 USD / year renewal fees. But if the renewal is each year 26k, this is very important information, as if the buyer will hold this domain for 10 years, they will pay 260k during that period.

    And this applies for thousands and thousands of new gTLD domain names. When you go through source like namebio, you can not tell if the sale reported there consist of 1 big initial payment and small yearly renewal fees which you can neglect, or if it consist of big initial payment which will repeat every year...this is why I think we are comparing apples to oranges in so many cases.
     
  9. JB Lions

    JB Lions Santa Hat Connoisseur VIP

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    I think it would be comparing sanity with insanity. It is actually 26k a year renewal? That's just nuts. Still not counting it in the sale tho, can't imagine others either.
     
  10. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    I am interested to talk here about how to report new gTLD sales more precisely, I am not here to speak (or boast) about my personal stuff, it's my private matter :)
     
  11. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    Yes, that is the renewal. So counting it or not, it is there, and we should take that into consideration to get the true picture..

    Btw, easiest way how to check renewal fees for new gTLDs (with 95% accuracy, there as some discrepancies I know about) is www.mrdomain.com .. insert a name there in the search box, & it will show you renewal fee.

    But it is not only name like coin / store.. we have tons of names, for example above mentioned dream / properties with 900 renewal. And here again, if that name would be reported as sale in namebio (which is not), it would be reported there as 900 sale. And the fact that buyer needs to pay 900 each year would not be mentioned there...
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  12. Asfas1000

    Asfas1000 Active Member VIP

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    Only problem being this $900 per year are going into the registry's pocket, not the seller's.....
     
  13. wormfood

    wormfood /_/_/\ Gold Account VIP

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    how many buyers even know the renewal fee before purchasing?:ROFL:
     
  14. wwwweb

    wwwweb Top Member VIP

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    Most don’t, they think it is a one time charge, not annual renwal.
     
  15. wwwweb

    wwwweb Top Member VIP

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    I know your struggling, and putting money out of your own pocket, especially when all those .properties come due for renewal.

    I got in early enough to grab enough good keywords that have sustained the burn. Also got to cherry picks donuts reserve release a few years back. Others that you are encouraging modern day are going to get slaughtered, there is just not enough good inventory available at reg fee that they can turnover quickly enough.

    You have to be realistic, Inquiries are way down, and YES the registry is reserving gje good drops, if you dispute that fact you really know nothing about this program. I don’t blame them for reserving them, they understand they need to retain that premium revenue for themselves, and not domajners, so you understand how these newbies are getting taken behind the woodshed one by one.

    You keep hyping this program, but you fail to yield any sales results. Given you have an abuandance if WordKeyword.Extension shows me you don’t really understand the ones that actually do sell, and the rest are just 99 cent promos that renew at full price/

    It’s a numbers game, and modern times you can’t sustain the renewal for the amount of inventory you need to make a well diversified portfolio that has constant sell thru. 99 percent are setup for failure, I can see your ALL IN, you have invested well over $10k so you need this to work.

    At the end of the day it is what it is, and end user demand is just not there. I really wish it was different, but it is what it is.
     
  16. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    It is interesting perspective that I had not considered before @lolwarrior and thank you for the clear explanation of your thinking. While I am hesitant (because of the various possible interpretations) to adjust how we view sales (as you know in my analyses I use the simple cash paid up front model), I totally accept that it is a reasonable argument to do it the way you suggest.

    If the lifetime registration model being promoted by Epik takes off, perhaps it will become the norm to view a cost as long term for all domain names.

    The payment plans now promoted for both legacy and new extensions bring up a similar situation. If I agree on a price, but only pay a portion now and agree to pay the rest over 10 years, and sell it on instalment is that really a sale or not?

    Of course if the new extension registries would change their model to premium only once, and all renew at standard, that would simplify, build confidence, and make it clear what the price should be!

    Thanks again.

    Bob
     
  17. Kate

    Kate Domainosaurus Rex VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I have a question: how may bona fide purchasers of nTLDs are actually paying insane renewal fees of 26K per year ? The underlying question being, are there enough such purchases so that we should take notice ?
    What does it mean to our bottom line ? Especially when so many sales are registry sales where no domainers benefit.

    AFAIK reporting sources like Namebio never bothered with the renewal prices in the past, specifically in .tv, that is a pioneer of premium pricing. Besides, that information is not always available upfront. So it was never taken into consideration. We can't predict how long the domain will be kept and renewed.

    If there are only 3 reported sales of .properties domains, it tells me one thing regardless of the money paid and to be paid in the future: the odds of a sale are pretty remote.

    But I agree we are comparing apples to oranges :)
     
  18. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    You are making lot of personal assumptions in your posts, and many of them are incorrect. I am sincerely trying, but I honestly can not follow your logic. This tread is about how we report sales in new gTLDs. It is not about my (btw fantastic) portfolio of new gTLDs.

    I told you few months ago in another discusssion : if you criticise my choice of names (which you did), at least show me your names and we can criticise each other :) My names are at www.brands.international, and I do not hide anything ... where are your names, @wwwweb ? You stated you got in early and grabbed good keywords..so you can please show them to us?
     
  19. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    Thanks a a lot Bob. I honestly only got that understanding recently when I saw the appraisal for .capital name mentioned in my initial post. Also the recent new idea of lifetime registration model promoted by @robepik sparked this as well. If all names were sold in the model of lifetime registration, we would be comparing apples to apples, but this is not a case now.

    And the more I think about it, the more I feel that those statistical data many are using (like average sale price of new gTLD name vs average sale price of .com) are saying pretty distorted picture about what is going on in new gTLD space. If we get those higher renewal into consideration, the new gTLD space might be much stronger then we initially though :)
     
  20. wwwweb

    wwwweb Top Member VIP

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    Because a .com goes from $9 to $9.50 renewal is wishful thinking to consider an end user in making the call for a website address for their company, over a 50 cent price increase to a renewal. GTLD's will follow suit with price increases also, the registries haven't exactly been for the domainers either.
     
  21. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    This is a very good question @Kate and it is something what I am having a look at the moment. One can get very good glimpse of what is going on using source like mrdomain.com and checking some high-value trending keywords, like "blockchain", "coin", "virtual", or something more classic like "car" or :holiday.

    So let's take for example keyword "coin": short search will show us those registered names
    (extension, yearly renewal fee in Euro ):
    online, 1134
    space, 283
    app, 438
    page, 572
    store, 28 349
    games, 228
    love, 907
    radio, 250
    site, 1134
    fun, 2834
    xyz, 1134
    and dozens of others, just for keyword "coin".

    So, as an example: that means, someone paid at least 2834 for coin / fun, and maybe more, if that was some EAP name. And will continue paying 2834 as long as it is registered. Do we have that reported in namebio? No. And what is reported there at the time of writing? We have there 24 entries, all coming from Flippa, for lower quality .fun names which sold in range USD 170-199 ...someone was probably mass selling that in Flippa, maybe as 1 set of 24 names.

    Imo such data have nothing to do with reality, or actual status of .fun extension. If someone who does not know much details about new gTLDs is using this as an guide or to judge how the .fun extension is doing, or how .fun names are selling, that someone will get very inaccurate picture.

    So how one can get good picture? I would say one needs to consider reported sales in sources like namebio, PLUS also one needs to consider distribution of higher renewals in set of registered names in certain new gTLD extension. This second part seems to be much more important for many new gTLD extensions comparing to first part, but each extensions is different and should be analysed separately.
    This is another reasons why it is not clever to put all new gTLDs in one bag. Your success is in detail :)
     
  22. JB Lions

    JB Lions Santa Hat Connoisseur VIP

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    It's always going to be what you paid for it, across the board. You can sell it within the year so those renewals won't even come into play. Then you wanted to go with 10 year renewal and add it to the purchase price instead of 1, because 1 would be lower. I think people see what you're trying to do here.
     
  23. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International VIP

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    I hope so.
     
  24. kriss05

    kriss05 Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Until/unless ngtld registries stop reserving drops, there is no sense to report any good ngtld sales. ngtlds registries are being driven by domainers. They likely to monitor public sales reports and reserve drops similar to those sold for good money. As it was told many times they don't want domainers to own good inventory so everyone reporting high value sales simply helps ngtld registries to compete against domainers.

    I'm sure that many sales don't get reported because of that, among other reasons.

    Lack of reported sales results in losing confidence among domainers which is natural. Less confidence, less registrations. If ngtld registries want domainers to bring them cashflow from crappy registrations and at the same time profit from their own inventory of reserved premium drops, then it looks like poor business model.

    That said, until/unless they stop reserving premium drops, discussing ngtld sales would be of little relevance. I guess no serious ngtld investor would help ngtld registries to compete against domainers by sharing their sales.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  25. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    I'm not saying you are wrong, but can you share what evidence you have that this is actually happening I'm not asking for specific names, just how you know and what the extensions were.

    I know that most of the registries reserved premium domain names initially. But I take it that you are not talking about that, but rather names that had not been designated originally as premium, someone bought them,and then if they later drop, they now become premium?

    I certainly know that it does not always happen. For example in the .space extension there are a number of reserved premiums at different price tiers (like the air.space that recently sold for $17k was a top tier name). I happened to notice a .space domain name that had sold previously, public record, for $$$. I noticed it dropped and it was a niche I like, so I picked it up (first year) for a discounted regular first year registration. Now maybe they just missed that one.

    I also know cases of words that have become high value (new developments in science hardly known in 2014). I let one of these drop after holding for one year, and I noticed it became available again just at standard fee (and I notice someone else hand registered it a few days after I let it drop).

    So can you share which extensions you know for sure it happens with, and how you know. Thanks.

    I do know that .co have begun doing that as names drop, and it has happened here and there in a few other country code I think. I'm not asking about that, just the ngTLDs.

    Bob
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018

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