.mobi Opportunism... Bet Hedging... Speculation... Sunk Costs... Waiting...

[jeremyp]

MY STRATEGY:
For the newbies to NP...

I jumped in on day #1.

Purchased 190 premium names in the first 3 weeks, 100 on the primary market and 90 on the secondary market.

Paid well into the 6-figures. Sold 9 names. Broke even.

Now, I sit on the inventory... 181 premium, day #1, landrush names. I'll renew these names for the next 10 years with an eye on the market.

MOBI IS SIMPLY A DOMAIN NAME POSITIONED FOR USE IN THE MOBILE SPACE:
This is not a technology play. The best you could say is that in the short run, mobi will offer a benefit as the consumer can bet on a mobile friendly site. However, as mentioned many times, there are substitutes for this including auto-detection and the m.domain strategy.

This is a MARKETING play. As I write in this month's Domainer's Magazine (page 53), this will be driven by marketers. Not necessarily the Bank of Americas or Zagats (although they are taking the mobi strategy for now), but by new players, unforeseen players... including opportunistic domainers looking to develop a great generic name.

IS THERE A NEED FOR AN EXTENSION IN THE MOBILE SPACE?
Not really. Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de.

I've built a portfolio that would cost me 7-figures to reproduce today optimistically and mid 6-figures pessimistically. I hedged my bet and sold some good ones (cancun.mobi, save.mobi and 7 others).

Now, I sit. Wait.

Worst case scenario, 10 years from now and $20,000 in renewals later, the value is $0... and my NPV is $12,500 +/-. Yeah, I could invest that at 7% and have $25,000 or so.

Best case scenario, mobi is an active, alternative to .com domain extension in the mobile space. Not a replacement, but a viable and utilized alternative.

WORD TO THE WISE... BE CAREFUL, HEDGE
The world of speculation is not for everyone. Just remember to hedge your bet. It's not too late to hedge. When renewals come around, give your portfolio a very keen eye. This is going to be a long, long road unless you are sitting on top one and two-word generic terms. Most of these names were held by the registry or snapped up in the first week.

There were also many great names picked up well after that time. The key is KEEN EYE.

SUNK COSTS MEAN NOTHING
I tell you what I've spent on .mobi names as a way to demonstrate my bet hedging. The truth is that once spent, it no longer matters. In economics there is a term - sunk costs. Basically, it means your level of investment only matters BEFORE you make it. Afterward, you must make decisions based on what will bring you the most value.

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NOW?
There is only one thing I can absolutely guarantee. I can guarantee this with a 99.99% accuracy. The number of consumers reaching out to the web for meaningful content is going to grow exponentially... year after year after year. In turn, meaningful content will grow exponentially.

And, with this as the backdrop, I opened up my checkbook.

We can have a meaningful discussion about whether .mobi will succeed in 2015. In the meantime, hedge, don't forget the reality of sunk costs, look for bargains from those looking to dump, and keep a KEEN EYE on this market and your portfolio.

Shalom Biatches!
Jeremy Padawer
(posted on multiple boards)
(c) 2007

 

[mejcdj]

:great:

Very well written

 

[-REECE-]

:great:

Very well written

Agreed. Thanks for your insight Jeremy

 

[Pred]

Excellent post, tahnsk Jeremy.
Agree with everything you say, although 10 years should never be mentioned in the same context as anything these days. Life moves too quick.
Cut that out and it'd be pretty much how i see it & how i'm playing it.

There was one phrase in there that gives you legendary status, albeit just for the day.
Did you guess it?

Yep:

Shalom Biatches! (legend)

cheers bitch
Arnie :imho:

 

[hedgefund]

Great article.

 

[whitebark]

Good post except for this: "Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de."

Just not true. Business owners either cannot afford to buy .com, .net etc for their business or it is already being used. country level domains open that up for many businesses - even where the domain is taken or for sale, it is much more affordable than the other option. cctld's are essential.

 

[gou]

Good post except for this: "Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de."

Just not true. Business owners either cannot afford to buy .com, .net etc for their business or it is already being used. country level domains open that up for many businesses - even where the domain is taken or for sale, it is much more affordable than the other option. cctld's are essential.

So that's equivalent to saying that .mobi is essential for those who are interested in developing mobile-only sites, right?

 

[jeremyp]

Good post except for this: "Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de."

Just not true. Business owners either cannot afford to buy .com, .net etc for their business or it is already being used. country level domains open that up for many businesses - even where the domain is taken or for sale, it is much more affordable than the other option. cctld's are essential.

Thanks to all of you who responded.

Whitebark - I'm using a controversial statement to make a point.

I deeply believe in country code domain names. I actually bid $2,500 for a co.uk name in 1997. The buyer accepted and promptly didn't transfer the name. I can't remember if I paid him. Let's say, I've evolved since then from a business perspective.

However, if you take the argument very literally - there is no need for any other extension. Theoretically any generic word has an infinite number of variations.

For instance:

Dogs.com
Dogs1.com
Dogs2.com
Dogsmobi.com
Dogscouk.com
Dogsanydarnedthingyouwant.com

The reality is that well positioned domain name extensions - such as country code and mobi - have a place in this world, if not just from a marketing perspective.

Jeremy Padawer

So that's equivalent to saying that .mobi is essential for those who are interested in developing mobile-only sites, right?

AH HA!



That was the point. You just Nine Inch Nailed it.

Jeremy

 

[GeoOwners]

So that's equivalent to saying that .mobi is essential for those who are interested in developing mobile-only sites, right?

Bingo...a double standard here imo.


.

Good post except for this: "Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de."

Just not true. Business owners either cannot afford to buy .com, .net etc for their business or it is already being used. country level domains open that up for many businesses - even where the domain is taken or for sale, it is much more affordable than the other option. cctld's are essential.

WB...you just "justified" .mobi in a nutshell...thanks mucho.


.

 

[scandiman]

Good post except for this: "Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de."

Just not true. Business owners either cannot afford to buy .com, .net etc for their business or it is already being used. country level domains open that up for many businesses - even where the domain is taken or for sale, it is much more affordable than the other option. cctld's are essential.

Whitebark, you took that one hook, line and sinker.

 

[colombani]

MY STRATEGY:


This is a MARKETING play. As I write in this month's Domainer's Magazine (page 53), this will be driven by marketers. Not necessarily the Bank of Americas or Zagats (although they are taking the mobi strategy for now), but by new players, unforeseen players... including opportunistic domainers looking to develop a great generic name.

IS THERE A NEED FOR AN EXTENSION IN THE MOBILE SPACE?
Not really.

Right JP. It is time for us to understand .mobi never be .com.

It is A MARKETING tld. And I think mobile contents need a marketing tld.

It is easier to remember poker.mobi instead of www.pokerroom.com/poker/mobile/ for customer.
it is just marketing.

In a few years there will be no problems for pda and mobilephones to display PC designed sites.
During this time. .mobi must be a recognized brand for mobile. Our .mobi domains must be developed by us quickly.

Last auctions told us .mobi was on the right way. Prices were very high for not .com domains and there were not a lot of end users in the buyers.

 

[newdomainer.mobi]

Ok, a question regarding time-scale

Great post by the way, I can tell that you have taken a far more professional approach than my scattergun method!

I would be interested to know why you mention 10years.... as others have commented; that is a very long time in modern terms. Was this a throw away comment or have you studied this in detail in order to come up with 10 years rather than say, 3 - 5 or 7 years?

Be good to hear your views on this.

Regards

Gary

MY STRATEGY:
For the newbies to NP...

I jumped in on day #1.

Purchased 190 premium names in the first 3 weeks, 100 on the primary market and 90 on the secondary market.

Paid well into the 6-figures. Sold 9 names. Broke even.

Now, I sit on the inventory... 181 premium, day #1, landrush names. I'll renew these names for the next 10 years with an eye on the market.

MOBI IS SIMPLY A DOMAIN NAME POSITIONED FOR USE IN THE MOBILE SPACE:
This is not a technology play. The best you could say is that in the short run, mobi will offer a benefit as the consumer can bet on a mobile friendly site. However, as mentioned many times, there are substitutes for this including auto-detection and the m.domain strategy.

This is a MARKETING play. As I write in this month's Domainer's Magazine (page 53), this will be driven by marketers. Not necessarily the Bank of Americas or Zagats (although they are taking the mobi strategy for now), but by new players, unforeseen players... including opportunistic domainers looking to develop a great generic name.

IS THERE A NEED FOR AN EXTENSION IN THE MOBILE SPACE?
Not really. Nor is there a need for country code domain names. There really is no argument otherwise. UK could live without co.uk... Germany could live without .de.

I've built a portfolio that would cost me 7-figures to reproduce today optimistically and mid 6-figures pessimistically. I hedged my bet and sold some good ones (cancun.mobi, save.mobi and 7 others).

Now, I sit. Wait.

Worst case scenario, 10 years from now and $20,000 in renewals later, the value is $0... and my NPV is $12,500 +/-. Yeah, I could invest that at 7% and have $25,000 or so.

Best case scenario, mobi is an active, alternative to .com domain extension in the mobile space. Not a replacement, but a viable and utilized alternative.

WORD TO THE WISE... BE CAREFUL, HEDGE
The world of speculation is not for everyone. Just remember to hedge your bet. It's not too late to hedge. When renewals come around, give your portfolio a very keen eye. This is going to be a long, long road unless you are sitting on top one and two-word generic terms. Most of these names were held by the registry or snapped up in the first week.

There were also many great names picked up well after that time. The key is KEEN EYE.

SUNK COSTS MEAN NOTHING
I tell you what I've spent on .mobi names as a way to demonstrate my bet hedging. The truth is that once spent, it no longer matters. In economics there is a term - sunk costs. Basically, it means your level of investment only matters BEFORE you make it. Afterward, you must make decisions based on what will bring you the most value.

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NOW?
There is only one thing I can absolutely guarantee. I can guarantee this with a 99.99% accuracy. The number of consumers reaching out to the web for meaningful content is going to grow exponentially... year after year after year. In turn, meaningful content will grow exponentially.

And, with this as the backdrop, I opened up my checkbook.

We can have a meaningful discussion about whether .mobi will succeed in 2015. In the meantime, hedge, don't forget the reality of sunk costs, look for bargains from those looking to dump, and keep a KEEN EYE on this market and your portfolio.

Shalom Biatches!
Jeremy Padawer
(posted on multiple boards)
(c) 2007

 

[mjnels]

10 years is reasonable.. its what ive been saying and is kinda just short of "forever" for most people.. its more of a MINDSET than an actual time frame for me..

of course after 5 years we'll have a pretty good idea how this has been going.. but for the people planning a "victory dance" (or dropfest) at year #5... you're already being too impatient... 5 years is a long time... but 10 years is a longer time.

keep expectations LOW..

keep your game HIGH..

keep the ideas flowin...


8^X

 

[-REECE-]

10 years is reasonable.. its what ive been saying and is kinda just short of "forever" for most people.. its more of a MINDSET than an actual time frame for me..

of course after 5 years we'll have a pretty good idea how this has been going.. but for the people planning a "victory dance" (or dropfest) at year #5... you're already being too impatient... 5 years is a long time... but 10 years is a longer time.

keep expectations LOW..

keep your game HIGH..

keep the ideas flowin...


8^X

Everybody sure is on their A game lately.. :great: Seriously, this thread has been an absolute treat to read and I couldn't agree more..

I've always looked at .mobi as an investment -- investments don't usually make you wealthy or even moderately rich overnight. With the markets the way they are.. I'd say a 15% return this year and for the forseeable future would be a very respectable figure. Ten years down the road, that's roughly a 400% ROI minus inflation. Good, but not great..

And this mobi you (landrushers) bought for $60 is already worth X,XXX+ in many cases.. Seems you've already exceeded a 10 year market expectation. Well done

Those of us who were clever enough to pick up some real gems on the aftermarket may also luck out. We picked up premium generics for XXX - names that would easily sell for XXX,XXX in .com.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... If .mobi was worth 1% of .com, many of us would be worth XXX,XXX-1,XXX,XXX.. Well, I believe we're there now. So congrats to all of you who made the plunge, splurged on the unknown, and took the risk to invest in .mobi when things weren't as clear as they are today. Hedging the investment still makes sense.. I'm trying to liquidate my non-health related mobis atm so I can focus more around my health niche and drastically reduce my renewal costs by picking up a few more quality names, rather than having a bunch of decent ones. Decent is fine, but having hundreds of them just exposes you to more risk (more money invested in the long run) than the guy who has a few gems and hence no additional risk moving forward.

 

[newdomainer.mobi]

I agree that one can't take the short term view but I fully expect to know where this is going by year 3 & be out of the market by year 5.... so 10 years is too long a view in my opinion but I was interested to know if there was anything to support the need need to take the long view that I may not have considered?

regarding renewals - I would hope to cut a deal with a domain management company that will keep my renewal fees down to around the $4 to $5 mark given that I have a 4 figure portfolio - this would keep a lid on costs (obviously not quite as much as just owning 1x A1, premier plus top of the league Prime domain.mobi but I'm not going to complain (yet

Regards

Gary

 

[mjnels]

regarding renewals - I would hope to cut a deal with a domain management company that will keep my renewal fees down to around the $4 to $5 mark given that I have a 4 figure portfolio - this would keep a lid on costs (obviously not quite as much as just owning 1x A1, premier plus top of the league Prime domain.mobi but I'm not going to complain (yet

Regards

Gary

mTLD (the registry) doesnt even wholesale mobi's for that low.. also, the registrar could care less about anyones perceived value of their portfolio.. in other words.. News.mobi or thisisacrappydomain.mobi, the cost of renewals will be the same.

 

[-REECE-]

I agree that one can't take the short term view but I fully expect to know where this is going by year 3 & be out of the market by year 5.... so 10 years is too long a view in my opinion but I was interested to know if there was anything to support the need need to take the long view that I may not have considered?

regarding renewals - I would hope to cut a deal with a domain management company that will keep my renewal fees down to around the $4 to $5 mark given that I have a 4 figure portfolio - this would keep a lid on costs (obviously not quite as much as just owning 1x A1, premier plus top of the league Prime domain.mobi but I'm not going to complain (yet

Regards

Gary

You could probably get $.25 - $.50/per off the bulk rate at your registrar. Doubt you'll get more than that though (unless you're at NetSol, which I highly doubt). In the case of some registrars (eg. Godaddy), their rates on most extensions are barely above the wholesale rate -- hence little room to negotiate, although even a few cents here or there adds up when you have XXXX mobis

 

[garrett200]

Great thread and impressive post, JeremyP.

The "keen eye" point is well taken, I think this is the most important part of your post. Which names to renew? That is the question.

My strategy :

I have 333 .mobi domains. Most were hand reg's long after landrush, so realistically I don't really have very many good names. I've already filtered out about 80 of them that I know I won't renew. That leaves about 250 domains.

Now, the trick is to find the top 20% of those 250 and renew them, the rest try to sell.

I plan to go over all 250, one by one, looking at keyword value, wordtracker score, overture, google search, etc., etc., looking for those 50 or so "keepers".

If I were to renew all 250, I'll be waiting a LONG LONG time to realize any gains.

I'm going to be asking once again for help from some key people here to help me get to that 50 number. Thanks in advance.

 

[Jeff]

I plan to go over all 250, one by one, looking at keyword value, wordtracker score, overture, google search, etc., etc., looking for those 50 or so "keepers".

At this point, I think that's a great strategy, G ... complementing it with, of course, .MOBI developments as well as recouping some of those registration costs in trying to sell the other 80%, IMHO. :tu:
All the best!

Sold 9 names. Broke even.

Now, I sit on the inventory... 181 premium, day #1, landrush names. I'll renew these names for the next 10 years with an eye on the market.

Thanks for the post ... which nine (9) .MOBI domains did you sell, to whom, and for how much ... if you could share? Are any or all of these presently developed? :gl: :talk:

Also, to quickly follow-up on Newdomainer's question ... how did you arrive at the 10-year benchmark ("I'll renew these names for the next 10 years with an eye on the market") ... versus, say, 5 or 7 (or, gulp, 11.25 - 13.75+/-) years? IYHO. :blink:
Thanks for any insight.
-Jeff

 

[jeremyp]

Great post by the way, I can tell that you have taken a far more professional approach than my scattergun method!

I would be interested to know why you mention 10years.... as others have commented; that is a very long time in modern terms. Was this a throw away comment or have you studied this in detail in order to come up with 10 years rather than say, 3 - 5 or 7 years?

Be good to hear your views on this.

Regards

Gary

Gary -

There is nothing magical about the 10 year mark. I am simply making a point to say that the NPV on a 10-year investment assuming $10/renewal and 180 renewals/year isn't all that bad. This sort of investing isn't for everyone. I've already hedged. Now it's just cash flow management.

It goes without saying that awareness, development and adoption isn't going to happen overnight.

I believe that mobile will explode over the next 5 years. So, in turn, if .mobi isn't established as a marketing tool by 2012, it had better be that mobile content has not flourished.

Jeremy Padawer