.mobi MOBI could be the next ORG...

[jeremyp]

I just posted the following on Rick Schwartz's private board. There are a few sentences that I borrowed from a previous post on NP, but mostly new. Rick is an amazing domainer.

______________________________

I've spent 6 figures on MOBI names. Here is my rationale for participating in MOBI speculation.

IS MOBI THE NEXT .COM?

No.

I believe that MOBI does have a positioning and mission statement that rings more true than .TV, .BIZ, .INFO and a host of other extensions. This positioning has a chance to be adopted, whether a need for the standard exists or not... much like ORG.

Ask your non-domainer friends and family about .ORG. What is it? "Oh, it's the extension for organizations." This is likely the answer you'll get. Did there really need to be a .ORG? No. Does it have a mission statement that was adopted. Yes. Where is that mission statement? Simple... it's .ORG. That's the entire mission statement.

Now ask your family or friends about .NET. "Networks?" The response will be more in the form of a question. Consumers aren't sure.

In my mind, a simple positioning statement that was adopted by the masses has permeated society and has achieved an incremental value over NET.

.MOBI has the benefit of being marketed 1st in the mobile marketplace with 300,000 registrations, a bit of development, some ink behind it in PR and a registry that is at least good at selling and strategy.

.MOBI will see some success because it will be perceived as a relatively decent option to COM in the mobile space.

This is an alternative view to those saying success will be born from the programming standard and consistency in web surfing in that standard brings. This is a nice element. And, as long as it sucks to surf the mobile web from a bandwidth perspective, MOBI has a chance from a consumer adoption due to technology aspects as well.

For those of you who are tech saavy - truly know all the alternatives in terms of mobile - the technology aspect is simply not as compelling.

Ultimately, in order for MOBI to drive more than speculative value, the fundamentals must be there. There must be cash flow from traffic driven by consumer awareness and habits based upon real marketed MOBI sites.

I believe this will happen in time.

When we view domain name sales in 2012, the MOBI value has the potential to look something like ORG.

So for the people slamming MOBI, you could be proved correct. It will take a while to know for sure. In the meantime, if it does work, it could actually work quite well.

Truth is that there is very little development on mobile web right now. So, anyone claiming victory or defeat makes me zone out.

For the people adoring MOBI, you have something in common with the current US administration. Remember when US invaded IRAQ and in the first 48 hours practically declared victory? That's what's happening here. You're looking at a landscape that appears promising. Well, we're 4 years into the IRAQ conflict...

My belief is that MOBI will prove itself out much like a popular country code or like .ORG. It will find a solid niche. It will not likely return the level of cashflow that a .COM, unless there is absolute adoption of MOBI as the standard. This isn't likely to happen because the technology exists to make .COM adaptable to mobile.

When .MOBI does become a nice alternative to COM and ultilized on the mobile space, the best MOBI names will be very much sought after as they will drive some traffic and be great for search results.

Remember this, .ORG, .NET, .EU, .DE premiere names bring a tremendous premium.

I believe that MOBI will be a top-5 extension.

In the meantime, I wouldn't overestimate the success of MOBI as the new COM.

There is no new COM.

There could very well be a new ORG.

And, in the very slim possibility that MOBI does become the #1 mobile domain name, or a strong mobile alternative, this does nothing to knock COM from the perch of King.

Jeremy Padawer

Save.mobi
Fantasybaseball.mobi
Restaurantes.mobi
Consultant.mobi
Smartphones.mobi
Collect.mobi
Borrow.mobi
Military.mobi
And 180 other expensive MOBI names that will be outstanding, not so outstanding or not great at all.

 

[GeoOwners]

I agree for the most part with you J.
alot of names NOT taken in .org will be and are already taken in .mobi
If 20+ percent of all regged .mobi's are developed I think we will have a winner.

 

[hawkeye]

Interesting assessment Jeremy. I can somewhat agree with this. It may actually be an extension (the first?) that plays out for it's intended purpose.

 

[fautebol]

I think you make a big assumption that mobile web will be quite similar to PC.

I don't think .mobi can be compared to .org. When .org came, .com was already all over the place. I don't think that many people or kids are used to .com with their cellphones. So if there are a lot more .mobi sites in the beginning the situation is totally different. The beginning will be obviously important:

-Does someone know if there are many mobile websites that do not have a .mobi extension?

Let's see in the following months if the majority redirects or not to .com?

Now, what do you mean by top-5 extensions? Is there any .org mobile website? I think we should not mix PC and mobile web here. I don't expect the top extensions to be necessarily the same in both environnement. .Mobi could be a somehow nice alternative for PC, but a bit better with mobile web.

I read on an other forum (DN) that in Japan msn.mobi started today and if you search the engine .mobi sites come first. Could a Japanese confirm? This would be of course excellent for .mobi.

(Edit: If you say comparable to .org in terms of revenues, I don't think it's possible at this stage to make any presumption about the revenues of mobile web compared to pc)
PS: I know you have invested a lot and I'm really a newbie with domains

 

[tony_np]

I don't agree.

First of all, .COMs resource was exhausted. People are tired of there are too many long and difficult to remember .COM's website names, because most of good .COM's were used. So for new platform, people would like to use new extension , no more .COM !

 

[snoop]

When we view domain name sales in 2012, the MOBI value has the potential to look something like ORG.

I think resale price in many cases have already overshot .org prices, I don't think flowers.org would get 200k, nor 100k for fun.org. If your prediction turns out to be true I'd say the market is ahead of itself at the moment.

-Does someone know if there are many mobile websites that do not have a .mobi extension?

That would be like asking if there are many websites that don't use .net.

 

[labrocca]

It's a PERFECT post. It makes all the right arguments about the possible success of mobi. And imho rings true that if you wouldn't reg the name as a .org you wouldn't want it as a .mobi...unless of course it's very specific keyword to mobile usage.

 

[snoop]

I agree with most of the post, that .mobi will end out probably end out a middle weight extension. It will be known by most but won't ever be the the major extension for mobile sites. Personally I would peg it between .info and .org levels in the long run (5-10 years out) in terms of value.

 

[nrmillions]

I dont think .mobi can be compared to any extensions for PCs. This is something unique that hasnt existed yet. If it becomes the standard used thing for mobile devices then it wouldnt compare to the .org. I agree it will become one of the top 5 extensions in the world though. I think it will definitely be better than .info though. .info has been out for several years now and 99% of the public still has no clue it exists.

 

[snoop]

99% of the public still has no clue it exists.

I think the awareness would probably be higher than that. I'd say most people don't know about it, but not 99%.

 

[danmanmktng]

Jeremy, I think you're dead on.

Furthermore, .org will never 'take off'. It had its chance. While the possibility is still there (and I would say not completely remote), that .mobi becomes the default extension for mobile content. Hence why .mobis are worth what they are. Sure flowers.org wouldn't go for $200k (right?), but there's also no chance that flowers.org at some point in the future will be worth $10mil -- can't say that about the .mobi equivalent.

 

[accent]

It is a moving target.

In 2012 (Mayan calendar notwithstanding) .COM names will have had 6 more years of growth. A straight line projection would put the better names into ozone levels (didn't Zesty say that LLL.com have appreciated at 5% PER MONTH for quite a while?). Straight line projections are always wrong - you never know which way - but if .MOBI names are worth in 6 years what the equivalant .COMs are worth today that would be a lot of money.

 

[snoop]

Sure flowers.org wouldn't go for $200k (right?), but there's also no chance that flowers.org at some point in the future will be worth $10mil -- can't say that about the .mobi equivalent.

Equally .org isn't likely to completely flop, however there is a chance flowers.mobi might end up being worth very little.

 

[danmanmktng]

My point is this --

Lets say flowers.mobi has a 5% chance of being worth $10mil in 10 years. A 5% chance of being worth $1mil. And a 90% chance of being worth 0. The expected value of the investment is $550,000, not a bad rate of return on 200k.

Sure I'm making some assumptions and you have to discount for opportunity cost etc., but you get my drift.

 

[snoop]

My point is this --

Lets say flowers.mobi has a 5% chance of being worth $10mil in 10 years. A 5% chance of being worth $1mil. And a 90% chance of being worth 0. The expected value of the investment is $550,000, not a bad rate of return on 200k.

Sure I'm making some assumptions and you have to discount for opportunity cost etc., but you get my drift.

It is approximately a 10% return per annum.

 

[danmanmktng]

It is approximately a 10% return per annum.

Yeah good point, so the assumptions have to be less conservative for flowers.mobi to be a good investment.

 

[circa1850]

I just posted the following on Rick Schwartz's private board. There are a few sentences that I borrowed from a previous post on NP, but mostly new. Rick is an amazing domainer.

______________________________

I've spent 6 figures on MOBI names. Here is my rationale for participating in MOBI speculation.

IS MOBI THE NEXT .COM?

No.

I believe that MOBI does have a positioning and mission statement that rings more true than .TV, .BIZ, .INFO and a host of other extensions. This positioning has a chance to be adopted, whether a need for the standard exists or not... much like ORG.

Ask your non-domainer friends and family about .ORG. What is it? "Oh, it's the extension for organizations." This is likely the answer you'll get. Did there really need to be a .ORG? No. Does it have a mission statement that was adopted. Yes. Where is that mission statement? Simple... it's .ORG. That's the entire mission statement.

Now ask your family or friends about .NET. "Networks?" The response will be more in the form of a question. Consumers aren't sure.

In my mind, a simple positioning statement that was adopted by the masses has permeated society and has achieved an incremental value over NET.

.MOBI has the benefit of being marketed 1st in the mobile marketplace with 300,000 registrations, a bit of development, some ink behind it in PR and a registry that is at least good at selling and strategy.

.MOBI will see some success because it will be perceived as a relatively decent option to COM in the mobile space.

This is an alternative view to those saying success will be born from the programming standard and consistency in web surfing in that standard brings. This is a nice element. And, as long as it sucks to surf the mobile web from a bandwidth perspective, MOBI has a chance from a consumer adoption due to technology aspects as well.

For those of you who are tech saavy - truly know all the alternatives in terms of mobile - the technology aspect is simply not as compelling.

Ultimately, in order for MOBI to drive more than speculative value, the fundamentals must be there. There must be cash flow from traffic driven by consumer awareness and habits based upon real marketed MOBI sites.

I believe this will happen in time.

When we view domain name sales in 2012, the MOBI value has the potential to look something like ORG.

So for the people slamming MOBI, you could be proved correct. It will take a while to know for sure. In the meantime, if it does work, it could actually work quite well.

Truth is that there is very little development on mobile web right now. So, anyone claiming victory or defeat makes me zone out.

For the people adoring MOBI, you have something in common with the current US administration. Remember when US invaded IRAQ and in the first 48 hours practically declared victory? That's what's happening here. You're looking at a landscape that appears promising. Well, we're 4 years into the IRAQ conflict...

My belief is that MOBI will prove itself out much like a popular country code or like .ORG. It will find a solid niche. It will not likely return the level of cashflow that a .COM, unless there is absolute adoption of MOBI as the standard. This isn't likely to happen because the technology exists to make .COM adaptable to mobile.

When .MOBI does become a nice alternative to COM and ultilized on the mobile space, the best MOBI names will be very much sought after as they will drive some traffic and be great for search results.

Remember this, .ORG, .NET, .EU, .DE premiere names bring a tremendous premium.

I believe that MOBI will be a top-5 extension.

In the meantime, I wouldn't overestimate the success of MOBI as the new COM.

There is no new COM.

There could very well be a new ORG.

And, in the very slim possibility that MOBI does become the #1 mobile domain name, or a strong mobile alternative, this does nothing to knock COM from the perch of King.

Jeremy Padawer

Save.mobi
Fantasybaseball.mobi
Restaurantes.mobi
Consultant.mobi
Smartphones.mobi
Collect.mobi
Borrow.mobi
Military.mobi
And 180 other expensive MOBI names that will be outstanding, not so outstanding or not great at all.

My personal take?

.mobi will be like .eu. Once all the hype blows over so won't the domain name extension.

Admittedly, the .eu fiasco was rift with fraud and scams which gave many domainers a bad taste. Front companies were set up to snatch tens of thousands of domains up from the very onset. These were mostly front companies set up here in the states with shill organizations listed in the EU. The EURid did a pathetic job at monitoring.

Out of 256 pre-registrations submitted, myself and a partner in the UK garnered a grand total of...SIX! Sure, I now own quite a few, some are getting hits on a regular basis, but the only big sales have been and will be the HOTELS.EU, FLY.EU and so on. The very obvious.

Now, people can't get rid of .eu fast enough.

The whole globe has gone crazy with all the extensions and ccTLD's. What the heck will be next? Can I create one with my initials? Guess I need to own an island to do that. There's a thought! Instead of putting my money into domains, I'll just buy an island.

The bottom line, .com rules and anyone that has an internet presence is already there as a dot com. Any thing else that comes along will simply be that...a redirection (forward) to a site already up and running? Do we need a mobi? No mobi.

In about 8-10 months you'll see the market flooded with mobi's for sale. Heck, it's already flooded with mobis. Very little justification I see in the asking prices. Then again, three letters is three letters in anyone's portfolio and looks good.

How many do I own? Zilch. How many will I purchase? Perhaps a few.

Ask yourself this; How many sites are actually up and running with the .mobi or simply redirecting to the dot com?

Sell while the selling is good.

 

[GeoOwners]

the premiums aren't even out yet...how many .com's were developed after 2 months? Also...most people dont have net on their phones yet but in 4-5 years every phone user will have it as automatically as a a radio in their car. imo

 

[vcool]

Ask yourself this; How many sites are actually up and running with the .mobi or simply redirecting to the dot com?

I have about 100 developed .mobi's listed at dir.mobi so far, not bad considering it's only 2 month old.

Let me ask you this, what would you like to type on your cell phone:

yahoo.mobi
or
http://wap.oa.yahoo.com/

Both goes to same page.

yahoo.mobi redirects to the wap.oa.yahoo.com address( which btw can also change), but you will not be able to see this on mobile and may not be able to remember the long .com address for each and every mobile websites. :imho:

vcool

 

[circa1850]

Good point and point well taken.

We are all speculating if for the positive or for the negative.

One must still type in to a cell phone. How far down the road do you think it is that phones without keypads are in the works?

Try today. No keypads, 100% voice prompts. Not on the market yet.

So just say "Yahoo", not "Yahoo dot com' or "Yahoo dot mobi". Very much the way your cell phone options currently work. Only right now they just work on phone numbers.

And if I smash one more phone from some jerk walking into me typing in a text message, there will be fewer and fewer keypad phones (actually, it fell out of his hands and smashed to pieces without any help...cheap Nokia)

I'll have to put on my pointy aluminum foil hat and see what I can technological advances I come up with.