I think people will use ngtlds in the future but they'll be for ad campaigns or thin sites. Domainers will be squeezed out as prices go up, sales to end users evaporate, and losses stack up.
This statement is just so wrong. First, you're making an absolute prediction that ngtlds will be exclusively used for ads or thin sites. How do you even reach such a conclusion? (That's a rhetorical question, you don't need to reply). Second, your pricing analysis doesn't make sense. Why? Because again, it's a direct and absolute (foolish) claim that assumes the future liquidity of domains will be less than what it is right now. If you take a minute to study this chart
http://imgur.com/a/QkIkw or the
related counter here, you can start making some very simple assumptions that will go against your original predictions, assuming you are somewhat intelligent. These simple assumptions could be, for example:
"Oh, every year the internet population has been increasing, and, every year, the number of websites in the world continues to accumulate, so, this growing trend is indicative of an increase in liquidity."
Please, with all due respect, take the time to look at some data before throwing out bs you made on the spot and consider appropriate to share with everyone.
1.Most internet users will never get a domain. It assumes, internet user = domain registrant.
2. Non US people will get their ccTLD not an English language new TLD.
3. Even if 3 billion people buy domains, .com prices would go up so dramatically(because of scarcity) that .coms would be the best investment ever with very little risk(and holding costs)
4. It assumes that the average internet user joe in India for example would pay premium prices for your TLDs just to get his personal domain name.. if this were to happen you wouldn't need to speculate in the new TLDs, eternal 20 year gold rush in all extensions, everyone would get rich.
Again, another absolute, unproductive post based on your own made-up beliefs of how the future will look like. Here are my responses with respect to your assumptions:
1. Just like when cars were introduced to society, you would be in the group of fools to believe that "most humans will never get a car". What motivates you to believe and be pessimistic that internet users will never get a domain?
2. Fair, but I don't think that a company in Brazil operating with a .br and .shop extension would cause them any trouble, so I suspect that they would register outside of .br, especially considering that the social system is a global social system. These extensions are plain, one-word english words, that are understood universally. Further, when you enter the internet, a lot the words are in English. To build on that, it's commonality nowadays that, not only is English the universal language, but a language where the simplest words (i.e. shop, horse, christmas, media, etc) are understood.
3. It is true in your analysis that the increase in websites causes the prices to drive higher. Will it be a dramatic effect? No. Why not? Well, just
spend a minute watching this counter. Is the change dramatic? No. Would the change seem dramatic if you compare two distant periods (i.e. the count in 2011 vs. right now?)? Yes, of course. Or,
look at this pricing chart of real estate in Vancouver. Is the YoY change dramatic? No. How about the change over two distant periods, say, 1980 housing prices vs. 1995 housing prices? Yes, big difference.
So what does this mean? If you are disciplined and patient, then your holdings of these domains over a period of 10-20-30+ years will yield you a much greater return than it will if you were to hold it for 2-3-4 years. The problem is, most users get so excited when a bid comes in for $400, or $2000, that they quickly accept and their holdings of that domain is forever gone. So, you're not really going to actualize on those returns unless you are determined to play the waiting game. You might be able to relate to your grandparents holding their real estate for over a decade, to realize that the price of that real estate has appreciated significantly. A story I can relate to is my grandfather purchasing a farm for $10,000 when he was 30, and now it's worth over a few million dollars, a few decades later. Second, can domains be considered "the best investment ever"? Well, it depends on how the social system is governed.
Everyone living during this time is still considered the pioneers/cave-men of this global social system. It won't be until a decade or two, until we see regulations that could be put into law regarding ownership of digital assets. As a result, this might cause some turbulence with respect to owning a portfolio of domains. More specifically, they might be
*taxed* in some way, and, as a result, cause lower profits to be earned relative to if it was never taxed to begin with. This is always a possibility, and I would not be surprised if such laws were implemented.
4. The people who are going to be paying more are the people who were not in the period of registering when the liquidity and demand was low (...like right now). So, in one or two generations from now, yes, they will technically be paying at higher prices, as (1) the liquidity will be higher, (2) higher internet users, (3) more online websites. How about right now? Will all domainers get rich? Well, a lot of people on here are still having a difficult time coping with the long-term possibilities of social real estate, so the answer is no. Although the opportunity is available, you need to (1) genuinely believe that
this counter here http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/, and (2) this
counter here http://www.internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/, will continue to grow, and at some point, continue to grow at a multiple (this is certainly true for online websites, where the growth will met in multiples). When you can come to terms with that possibility, and once you are committed to being patient with your portfolio, then you will be positioning yourself to see some more significant gains in the future. Unfortunately, not a lot of people operate with a long-term mentality, and a lot of people are incompetent to envision how the possibilities of the future can turn out. I'm not saying to be a mind reader of any sort, but be optimistic and understand that the future will continue to be a much greater environment than anything you can imagine it to be as everything in your current existence right now will be exponentially more efficient, intuitive, and user-friendly. (think walking
versus cars; think farming your food
versus using an app for on-demand delivery; think your lemonade stand outside your house
versus operating a global shop with you established list of suppliers).
For all users, I encourage you to try and stretch your expectations towards a longer-term view, rather than limiting to a shorter one. As for the CEO of Uniregistry, well, it's quite simple to analyze his behavior: His performance is tracked by the quarter (every three months). So, if he can't lead a company to grow profits consistently, then, he's at risk of losing his job, or, if he's not laid off, then, Uniregistry won't be in a position to compete in the future due to their financial limitations. Does this mean he should increase prices of (illiquid) domain names? Well, that's not for me to answer. He can do whatever he wants. At the end of the day, it's his level of competency and ability, or inability, to think creatively, that will steer his company. Don't let his actions or thoughts comand your behavior.
