nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90%

Discussion in 'gTLD Discussion' started by betthelot, Feb 28, 2017.

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  1. betthelot

    betthelot Active Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90% . 4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017.
    Lots of free-minimum drops to come, rather than plateauing at 30 million could be the peak and down hill from here.
    Clear winner .com and note .click over 60% of sites scanned were spam or harmful to your computer's health, this is the last refugee for many of these strings, even for Frank's vision.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
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  2. dordomai

    dordomai Active Member VIP

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  3. NigelD

    NigelD Established Member

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    looks like it will all end in tears ; (

    why would any responsible business put all their time, effort and money into building an online presence on an untried extension - that's why most of these sites are spammy.

    Most of the previous growth was probably built on gimmicks and free offers - so numbers will start falling away with very small numbers of new registrations to cover the fall off.
     
  4. dordomai

    dordomai Active Member VIP

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  5. HotKey

    HotKey Made in Canada VIP

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    Thanks for caring :xf.rolleyes:. This thread has finally confirmed my suspicions that...oh never mind. Carry on.
     
  6. Casey L.

    Casey L. Active Member VIP

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    Maybe now nTLD speculators will understand how market bubbles work
     
  7. New.Life

    New.Life THE.COMPANY

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    A year ago there were more registrations (!?)

    The reason is simple!

    We, new gTLD domainers and end users, have already registered almost all of The best, (price / quality) new gTLDs. before 2017 :)

    But... No more very good and not expensive new releases on the line. The last of the new released of new gTLDs with mass registrations were only September, 2016 (.shop) and November .blog.
    Next one... may be - .art only May, 2017.

    In the future, there will be huge drops, .xyz ... etc... but this is OK! This is domains evolution! :)
     
  8. betthelot

    betthelot Active Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    ICANN forecasted that 30million would be Registered by end of 2015 and set their budgets inline with that. It's March 2107 and slowing dramatically. In that initial forecast they didn't know 50% would be given away at a loss for a $1, if they did Im sure they would have doubled their forecast.
    Mike Berkens sold his shares in rightside, rightside are now a pure nGTLDs player having sold enom to Tucows.
    MMX mind and machines the other pure nGTLD player, shares are in the doldrums. It's over for 98% of domain investors.
    Brands may still do well if they own the .com but no consolation to domainers.
     
  9. LeDomain

    LeDomain Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Time to end the distraction, most ntlds are either too narrowly focussed or stand for nothing. Between .com and cctlds, these are going to be an afterthought or non existent for most if not all non domainers.

    Lets focus on Real Extensions that matter
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
  10. Traveler

    Traveler Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I expect millions of names to be dropped soon, mostly the ones that offered a promotion. Going forward I wouldn't recommend anyone to register anything other than the best of the best. Renewal fees add up. I do see a future though, where the new extensions may have their day in the sun.

    Information travels so fast these days and opinions change overnight. If the "ice bucket challenge" or "my bucket list" can take over in matter of weeks, it only takes something like that for the new extensions to get a foothold. Opinions change quickly these days, in the not so distant future having a .com might be like driving a Buick.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  11. NigelD

    NigelD Established Member

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    To get their 'day in the sun' these new extensions will need to grow to a level to sustain them. The facts that betthelot posted at start of this thread suggest a lot of these new extensions have already peaked in numbers - leaving them undernourished, and in danger of shrivelling. Renewal costs will be prohibitive once promotions are over. The next year will be critical for the new extensions but signs are not good.
     
  12. MarkedMarket

    MarkedMarket Established Member

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    The first post in this tread says that the growth rate of new GTLDs has been reduced by 90%. The Domain Name Association published an infographic in January 2017 showing that the growth rate of new GTLDs has increased by more than 145% year over year. See: http://thedna.org/domain-name-stats/

    It's all what you want to see, and how you want to see it. Or as the famous expression goes:

    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." :)
     
  13. NigelD

    NigelD Established Member

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    They're quoting year on year stats as against betthelot who said in his opening post "4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017." That is a startling statistic and one that all domainers - especially newbies - should take note of before they invest a lot of money in new extensions.
     
  14. MarkedMarket

    MarkedMarket Established Member

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    I know what they are quoting. The reason for the Q1 difference is of course that in Q1 2016 many new extensions were released resulting in many new registrations, while that has not been the case in Q1 2017. Suppose .web and a couple of other new GTLDs would have launched on the 1st of January 2017, then the statistics would very likely have been different. That's why my comment: you can show anything with statistics!
     
  15. betthelot

    betthelot Active Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    It's the trend I'm looking at. It's forecasting given the current trend the peak is close. This is also demonstrated by the fact most of the early released strings, now 3 years old, have declined in numbers. .guru .london .berlin not all but the vast majority and all those that didn't do the freeminmum offer.
    It's all up hill from here for the nGTLDs the momentum is slowing dramatically. This must tell ICANN the world doesn't need another 1000 strings.I think investors will vote with their feet on the second round.
     
  16. lolwarrior

    lolwarrior Founder, Brands.International Business Account VIP

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    Thanks for posting this valuable information. This is apple to orange to pear to banana comparison, all mixed together, but who cares anyway :)

    In case some of you do not wish to hold your good quality new gTLD domains anymore (as you are shocked by this article), I am always interested in good quality ones..just shoot me a PM, and I will offer you re-seller, but fair price! But only quality domains please, not the garbage ones!
    Many Thanks.
     
  17. betthelot

    betthelot Active Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Brand.international. Like the your website lolwarrior.
     
  18. dordomai

    dordomai Active Member VIP

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    one needs to look closely at the numbers and apply some common sense as well.

    If you look you will see major losses among many TLDs.

    Basically these massive losses are for the most part neutralized by a couple of extensions like .loan that add as much as 30k a day. .xyz is another one ATM.

    There are over 1 million .loan registered. Do you really think end-users register 30k .loan a day?

    No.

    Do you think that over 1 million .loan make sense?

    No.

    .loan is of course incredibly cheap and selling as low as 70 cents.

    so is .xyz

    The stats are far worse than they might seem. What is really going on below the surface is that a lot of extensions are dead or being dropped and a few TLDs are being pumped to cover up the major losses the program is experiencing.

    Adding bulk freebie or promo to prevent losses is like getting a loan to repay your debt. It won't work over the long term and sooner or later this has to burst.

    The longer they keep the numbers up the harder this will crash and when it does it won't be pretty.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  19. LeDomain

    LeDomain Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    .net+.org = 21 million registrations (they sell but not even close to .com prices) - was anyone hyping these 2 tlds, nope. It happened over 20 years.

    The big hype : ngtlds = 25 million and dropping ( lets see how many exist in a few years and how many are used for websites) - This was supposed to be a new movie, even though some of us have seen this play out before - .mobi, .info, .ws, .jobs (big failure). Bottomline, hype can get you only so far, the market has to pull the rest of the way. We are reaching that phase where market pull has to work and hype aint working anymore

    cctlds = 140 million and growing (used by major corporations worldwide) and the real extensions for the future. Domain extensions in Asia, Africa, South America and other developing nations will see tremendous growth without the hype

    Atleast they mean something
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2017
  20. NigelD

    NigelD Established Member

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    you're right about it 'playing out before' with extensions like .mobi - so if they couldn't catch on how could hundreds more?

    We were fortunate to not lose a ton of money on some of these new extensions. We did buy some nice short one word .tvs - I think we might have sold one - but with the high renewal fees they weren't economically viable, and after receiving very little interest, we lapsed the rest of them.

    I'm not a fan of the EU - so stayed away from that extension.

    And in a moment of madness some years ago we were outbid on a 1 word .mobi after we had bid around £4000 - phew!

    So we've stuck to .com, and .co.uk (inc .uk) and a few .net we registered many years ago.
     
  21. boker

    boker Active Member VIP

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    I think that more important it's how sale are going, not registrations. You should compare sales from jan-feb 2016 and jan-feb 2017, you will see a huge rise. Also, if in .com you will see some invented words valuable, in ngtld's it will impossible. I think that you can make money with new gtld's with exact match keyword.tld, probably a few hundred to 1k sales per new extension. Net, info and biz will see a huge drop. Probably there will be around 100 ngtld's that will be a big failure. EMD's for com will drop in value, you can see that already comparing sales for keywords from around a few years ago. Also, if you follow startups naming from few years ago you will see a drop from around 80% from total to around 60% now. Even at dnjournal, you can see every week around 3-4 ngtld's sales in top. I think that in 3-4 years, com( EMD and brandables) will have around 30% of sales, ngtld's 30% 20% for cctld's and the rest for org, net and chips. Even now, with exact match ngtld you can make money, sometimes even more ROI than with .com, but for now it's limited and it will take some time to mature.
     
  22. Registry Services

    Registry Services Established Member

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    I agree - I think this statistic is hugely skewed by the fact that there was a lot of heavy discounting and promotions a year ago and a lot of those are now dropping out.

    This masks the underlying trend, which (I accept) could be going either way - but I have to say, I thought it was interesting to see ads starting to appear on TV (in the UK) using nGTLDs
     
  23. JB Lions

    JB Lions Business Member Business Account VIP

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    Can you post some of that or links.
     
  24. Registry Services

    Registry Services Established Member

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    Because nGTLDs use differential pricing, instead of flat pricing, you're not comparing like with like if you just compare raw number of registrations in nGLTDs & traditional TLDs.

    I'm not saying the comparison would look any more favourable, but its a valid point.
     
  25. MarkedMarket

    MarkedMarket Established Member

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