new gtlds nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90%

[betthelot]

nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90% . 4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017.
Lots of free-minimum drops to come, rather than plateauing at 30 million could be the peak and down hill from here.
Clear winner .com and note .click over 60% of sites scanned were spam or harmful to your computer's health, this is the last refugee for many of these strings, even for Frank's vision.

 

[betthelot]

Announced today: http://magazine.store was sold to publisher Merideth for $250,000. And apparently a .games was sold last month for $183,000.

Not quiet true in the world of post truth, you conveniently forget to mention two very important points
1. magazine.store; was not cash and a discount was giving on its usage, as Meredith the purchaser clarified '“Some part of the cash component was discounted against the active usage of the domain and the placement that Meredith has given .store on the website.”. We also dont know the terms of .game.
Magazine.store sold for 250,000 USD but only received 5,000 USD and the difference is to be stated as undisclosed discount against usage. Thereby allowing me Radix to hype the value of .store to the gullible.
2. Both were sold by the registry again scant consolation to domainers, as the registries are leaving very little meat on the bone for the reseller market.

 

[LeDomain]

Time to end the distraction, most ntlds are either too narrowly focussed or stand for nothing. Between .com and cctlds, these are going to be an afterthought or non existent for most if not all non domainers.

Lets focus on Real Extensions that matter

 

[jmcc]

ICANN forecasted that 30million would be Registered by end of 2015

ICANN seems to have done the usual thing and got some clueless random economist to make a prediction about the domain name business despite not having a clue about the business. Very few people were surprised when the prediction was massively wrong.

Brands may still do well if they own the .com but no consolation to domainers.

Most brand TLDs have few (beyond the NIC) registrations. That claim that brand TLDs will be the saviour of new gTLDs is another bit of rubbish pushed by people who don't understand TLDs or new gTLDs.

What worries me is when I see people with no data and no experience in analysing TLD trends making claims about TLD statistics. The .COM had one of the worst deletion spikes for years but people moved on largely oblivious to the adjustment. The new gTLDs are much smaller so any adjustment or drop of speculative registrations is more visible. Some new gTLDs that had Chinese bubble exposure have already taken hits this year. Some new gTLDs are badly stuffed with free or heavily discounted domains. But there are some that are doing OK. Now the domainer version of "OK" and the domain industry version of "OK" are two different things. Most well run registries consider usage and renewals to be the main metrics of how a TLD is doing. They are not into zone stuffing and tend to treat discounting with the caution it deserves rather than making it a cornerstone of their business model.

The mistake that a lot of domainers and domainer blogs make is in taking the new gTLDs as a single TLD. They are not. They form a very complex set of TLDs often pitched at different markets. And most importantly from an analysis point of view, they have a variety of launch dates and thus some are more mature than others.

Regards...jmcc

 

[MarkedMarket]

Announced today: http://magazine.store was sold to publisher Merideth for $250,000. And apparently a .games was sold last month for $183,000.

Source: http://domainnamewire.com/2017/03/01/rightside-sold-single-domain-name-games-183000/

 

[betthelot]

ICANN forecasted that 30million would be Registered by end of 2015 and set their budgets inline with that. It's March 2107 and slowing dramatically. In that initial forecast they didn't know 50% would be given away at a loss for a $1, if they did Im sure they would have doubled their forecast.
Mike Berkens sold his shares in rightside, rightside are now a pure nGTLDs player having sold enom to Tucows.
MMX mind and machines the other pure nGTLD player, shares are in the doldrums. It's over for 98% of domain investors.
Brands may still do well if they own the .com but no consolation to domainers.

 

[MarkedMarket]

They're quoting year on year stats as against betthelot who said in his opening post "4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017." That is a startling statistic and one that all domainers - especially newbies - should take note of before they invest a lot of money in new extensions.

I know what they are quoting. The reason for the Q1 difference is of course that in Q1 2016 many new extensions were released resulting in many new registrations, while that has not been the case in Q1 2017. Suppose .web and a couple of other new GTLDs would have launched on the 1st of January 2017, then the statistics would very likely have been different. That's why my comment: you can show anything with statistics!

 

[boker]

I would say listen to Rick Schwartz:

When he invested everything in .com it will be crazy for him to say that com is loosing value and ngtld's are a good investment. The problem it's that a lot of peoples believe 100% what his saying, without thinking if he has any interest or no. It's like I buy a big farm of 1000 pigs and next to me somebody will open a farm of cow's. I will have to be crazy to say that the cow meat it could be better than pig meat. At the end, nobody can say 100% what will happen, but as always in business, you can follow your instinct and knowledge, if you count on what other peoples are saying, you will not have any chance of success.

 

[betthelot]

wow. then newbies will read about the sale and think they can sell a name like this for 250k.

In reality this thing sold for 5k.

The point I was making in reality no one knows what it sold for AND THIS IS DELIBERATELY DONE, faking a big sale that even DN Journal reported. To give the impression to investors, domainers and staff that all is great in the new gTLD world.

Why not say what the discounted price was? because then you would smell the BS.

 

[wwwweb]

it could be far worse.. an investor could have bought a premium .xyz at auction for 5 figures.

In theory(I don't think they would do this) they could decide that the premium domain is not making them enough money and increase the fee to $12k/year.

I don't think we will see this type of extortion anytime soon, it would harm them far more than what could be gained from that but it is not impossible under the current framework I think.

In theory they could even do this to domains sold by them at premium prices.

They could sell a domain for 5k and $10 renewal and 2 years later ask $500/year renewal.

Either they pay or they lose the domain. The registry does not need to inform investors about pricing changes.

In many cases the registrar might alert the registrant and they could still renew for 10 years in advance(in theory but perhaps the registry would not allow it?) but honestly do you think an end-user would want to buy a domain that will cost them at least $xxx/year after 10 years(future prices hikes not included)?

In my opinion what will be more affected will be the drops. If a good name drops or expires it will already have a premium renewal added.

No dropcatching under this system. Registry will take back all valuable names.

Donuts has been doing this for months, taking back drops they see as high value back into their reserved status.

I agree it is not wise to do this, but if an extension is desperate enough they could essentially force the surrender of their domains by using this scenario.

Everyday small businsss owners are not up to date on domain news, by the time they figure it out, they will be forced to drop.

These names could be then sold a second time for a one time premium price with a low renewal.

Hence rinse, and repeat, the framework of gtlds always left such loopholes opened, nobody thought anyone would ever consider exploiting them.

Gtlds are essentially a liability in owning, it was always perceived, but now it is becoming a reality.

 

[Brands.International]

Actually I would like to thank @betthelot for this thread..during last few days I was able to get several amazing new gTLD names, all of them from NP members for prices I never hoped for! This thread works like magic ..so..THANK YOU

PS: I am still buying. In case you would like to get rid of your new gTLD domains and get back to proven and reliable .com investing, please feel free to shoot me a PM, or email me. I am interested only in high quality new gTLD names, secured early with standard renewals. I offer reseller, but fair prices.

 

[dordomai]

the.end ?

 

[dordomai]

one needs to look closely at the numbers and apply some common sense as well.

If you look you will see major losses among many TLDs.

Basically these massive losses are for the most part neutralized by a couple of extensions like .loan that add as much as 30k a day. .xyz is another one ATM.

There are over 1 million .loan registered. Do you really think end-users register 30k .loan a day?

No.

Do you think that over 1 million .loan make sense?

No.

.loan is of course incredibly cheap and selling as low as 70 cents.

so is .xyz

The stats are far worse than they might seem. What is really going on below the surface is that a lot of extensions are dead or being dropped and a few TLDs are being pumped to cover up the major losses the program is experiencing.

Adding bulk freebie or promo to prevent losses is like getting a loan to repay your debt. It won't work over the long term and sooner or later this has to burst.

The longer they keep the numbers up the harder this will crash and when it does it won't be pretty.

 

[Steve Miller]

Kate, I referred to the Dot-Com bubble because everyone thought the internet was doomed after the crash. (Look at it now! Although some analysts are predicting another bubble is about to burst). Most people here seem to think nGTLDs are doomed. All I am saying is give it time. Don't write it off too early.

By the way it was a typo. accommodation.direct

Yes! in the face of no consumer demand. It's the old adage buy when everyone else is selling.

 

[jmcc]

From my experience in business and in the sharemarket, when talk is negative amongst the masses it's time to get in.

The share markets are often highly regulated. Domain markets, especially the new gTLDs, are not. The problem for some of these gTLDs is that the masses are not there. With some of the top new gTLDs, the registration numbers cannot be trusted as an indication of demand. They are similar to pump and dump penny stocks.

I own accomodation.direct and creditcards.direct. Surely these two domains are of some value.

Of value to whom? At the moment, they only have value to you, the registrar and the registry. You have paid for them and the registrar and registry have profited. The more relevant question has to do with how long you can absorb those costs until there is a market in which you can sell for a profit.

It's the next best thing if you can't get or afford the .com versions. By having the extension direct, it actually refers to dealing with either the accomodation owner directly and the credit card provider directly.

The position of .DIRECT as being an alternative to .COM is not a good way to look at things. Many of the new gTLDs are niche TLDs and work well as domain hacks. But they are long term holds in that it will take years for some of these TLDs to develop their primary markets. After these TLDs gain recognition and awareness, a secondary market (domain resales) develops. A lot of people are trying to evaluate the resale value of their domains in markets where the primary market is just getting started.

The other important aspect of TLD markets is usage. Domainers do not develop every domain that they register. On a large TLD like .COM, that is not a problem. There is a momentum with that TLD. With a small TLD, too many undeveloped speculative registrations can be bad for the TLD. People are more likely to see a parking page rather than a developed site. Adding a site might even help increase the value of a registration and will improve awareness of the TLD.

Regards...jmcc

 

[betthelot]

The insane growth rate might slow down.

Thats the point you need to recognise - growth rate has been pathetic. Even FS said that the uptake was so slow thats why hes had to increase prices dramatically to keep the lights on!
ICANN forecasted 30 million by end of 2015. Still not there 14 months later.
And what 12 million plus have been given away. Its awful. Its over. Just some will take longer to realize.

 

[Kate]

The whole game stinks and has absolutely proved it's a pyramid scheme we all know who is up to what yet no one has the gumption to say anything?

 

[dordomai]

sounds like they are struggling to pay the bills. they could easily create a fund and fund the marketing themselves. they want ICANN to pay so they don't have to risk more money in a business model that might be flawed .. IMO

 

[New.Life]

A year ago there were more registrations (!?)

The reason is simple!

We, new gTLD domainers and end users, have already registered almost all of The best, (price / quality) new gTLDs. before 2017

But... No more very good and not expensive new releases on the line. The last of the new released of new gTLDs with mass registrations were only September, 2016 (.shop) and November .blog.
Next one... may be - .art only May, 2017.

In the future, there will be huge drops, .xyz ... etc... but this is OK! This is domains evolution!

 

[Traveler]

I expect millions of names to be dropped soon, mostly the ones that offered a promotion. Going forward I wouldn't recommend anyone to register anything other than the best of the best. Renewal fees add up. I do see a future though, where the new extensions may have their day in the sun.

Information travels so fast these days and opinions change overnight. If the "ice bucket challenge" or "my bucket list" can take over in matter of weeks, it only takes something like that for the new extensions to get a foothold. Opinions change quickly these days, in the not so distant future having a .com might be like driving a Buick.

 

[LeDomain]

.net+.org = 21 million registrations (they sell but not even close to .com prices) - was anyone hyping these 2 tlds, nope. It happened over 20 years.

The big hype : ngtlds = 25 million and dropping ( lets see how many exist in a few years and how many are used for websites) - This was supposed to be a new movie, even though some of us have seen this play out before - .mobi, .info, .ws, .jobs (big failure). Bottomline, hype can get you only so far, the market has to pull the rest of the way. We are reaching that phase where market pull has to work and hype aint working anymore

cctlds = 140 million and growing (used by major corporations worldwide) and the real extensions for the future. Domain extensions in Asia, Africa, South America and other developing nations will see tremendous growth without the hype

Atleast they mean something

 

[TRY]

Thanks for posting this valuable information. This is apple to orange to pear to banana comparison, all mixed together, but who cares anyway

In case some of you do not wish to hold your good quality new gTLD domains anymore (as you are shocked by this article), I am always interested in good quality ones..just shoot me a PM, and I will offer you re-seller, but fair price! But only quality domains please, not the garbage ones!
Many Thanks.

The thing is my gut tells me 99% of the people have the leftovers and the 1% are holding the best names. If you asked people to submit their quality new g's to you, I'd wager you wouldn't pay reg fee for most of their submissions.

P.s. I stick with what is already established like .com's and cctlds. Everything else is too speculative for me at this time,..IMO.

 

[NigelD]

Agree with that - but with these ngtlds it's the registries that are often making these hyped (and sometimes unsubstantiated) sales reports. It wouldn't be allowed if you were working in the financial markets. These registries are under pressure, the new gtlds are plateauing, lapse ratios are high, average returns per domain are falling, they're struggling under a pile of debt, selling off assets, new strings are being launched, diluting any prospect of growth from a falling customer base, and the share price is under pressue. So they announce a mega sale, which blows a bit of air into this deflating balloon, for a day or two reg numbers go up - but they soon fall back again. That's the way I see it.

 

[wwwweb]

Flowers.mobi was sold for $235,000 and we know what happened

A sale here or there with ngtlds and by the way , most of those are made by registry to end user.
Those are not going to be enough to sustain a gtld

Flowers.Mobi, was sold for $200K, then bought by a domain investor for $10K, who got a margin call on FB stock at $16, and ended up selling it to 1-800-Flowers for $5K, when they declined to bid higher in the original $200K auction, now that is a complete story. In the end the end user got the domain, while everyone else lost money.

 

[wwwweb]

....and it now redirects to their .com

Perfect circle of domain life redirect to .com, like most gtld's do.