Completely agree.
I know many of us have been saying for many months now that renewal time would be "interesting".
The low end LLLL.com market is still saturated with flippers who are imho largely to blame for both the rapid rise and rapid decline. Many LLLL.com investors have been saying from the start that the low end market was a long term play.. I really can't see it any other way at present and I doubt things will get better before they get worse.
The very high end LLLL.com market seems to be doing just fine, with CVCVs leading the way. This would seem to defy any argument which places blame for what's happened largely on the economy.
The economy certainly isn't helping, however I think the majority of the blame lies on speculators who quite simply, over-speculated.
For a domainer interested in entering this market, the next couple months present an interesting opportunity for them to observe and/or capitalize on what happens next.
Freshly renewed LLLL.coms are being had for as little as $15 at present, placing the value of an LLLL.com expiring in the Sep-Nov 08 timeframe at about $8. At that price point, flippers are at best breaking even (and that's assuming they got in pre-buyout which most didn't).
What these flippers decide to do will imho largely decide how these renewals play out. Some of the flippers who got into LLLL.coms in the Jan-March 08 period have gotten burnt pretty bad already and it'll be interesting to see how much more they can take.
VURG said:
I say that until LLLL.com are 100% backordered, the value in the lower value domains is volatile. This trend appears same for any type of bought out domain. When CCC.com became 100% backordered, it was very exciting but they hovered between $20 and $50 for quite a while before then. There was some excitement in January/February as it looked like there was a large enough demand to reach this stage but it didn't happen.
There is still a lot of domainers who invested into these names with the intension of a quick flip who are liquidating their domains and the long term investors have little motivation to backorder the low quality domains when you can get them cheaper on the reseller market.
That said, I was never a big fan of domains like fqzx.com. I much prefer a nice sounding LLLLL.com.