LLLL.com Value Decreasing?

[DLarkin84]

Ok so everyone is always talking about how LLLL.com values are constantly increasing but does anyone think the value of them could ever decrease? Please list some reasons why you think LLLL.com's will continue to increase in value or why LLLL.com will eventually decrease in value.

 

[snoop]

The prices seem to be stabilizing right now. I'm not sure how fast LLLL.coms will rise as there is no historical basis. I only know that historically, most short domain prices have continued to rise. For example, in July of 2005 the worst NNL.coms were going for $30 which is similar to the worst LLLL.coms today. By July of 2006 they were at $65, July of 2007 $150 and by April of this year they were starting at $225. Anyway you look at them, those who held on were the big winners as the price increase was greater than the registration fee.

The whole domain market had a boom from 2002-2007 so it isn't saying much to state that short domains have a history of rising over the last 3 years. The domain industry is a boom and bust market like every other market. So far the big winners are those who got in on the buyout and sold around February, those people will be able to buy back in for a small fraction of what they sold at in my view. I still think we are a long way from the bottom.

Seems to me that despite the drop "in recent months" from 800% returns on the worst LLLL.coms to the current 300% returns, LLLL.com investor's are still the big winner's this year as LLL.coms only jumped by about 20%. Those whom bought $7 names in October, are now selling them for $30. Further, since more people can afford LLLL.coms, I believe that they will probably rise at a greater percentage rate than the LLL.coms for quite a few years.

According to 3character.com lll.com's have risen by 53% since Oct last year.

I think you are right that 4 letter has done better over the last 6 months, but the question is what is happening now? The direction of the market is strongly down.

Also when comparing the two I think liquidity needs to be taken into account, If I sell $8000 worth of llll.com in one lot what kind of discount will I have to take to what is stated as the minimum price, and how that kind of selling effect prices? I think the discount would be pretty substantial, I recall Reece recently talking about selling bulk lots of llll.com for $35 at the peak of the market. It will be interesting to see what the 4200 llll.com's auction on ebay gets bidded to.

 

[-REECE-]

Agree 100% Brad. Even today, setting up my company on an LLL.com versus an LLLL.com was something I spent a long time deciding.

Most LLL.coms are going to be more memorable/brandable, but saving $8000 USD on day 1 and using that towards advertising/promotion can make just about any domain pretty memorable. At the current rate of appreciation, I doubt we'll be seeing any small and very few medium-sized businesses purchasing them within 5 years.

LLLL.com are more in the price range of the average company. Let's say you are a small company called "QYZ" for example. Is that person more likely going to try to acquire "QYZ.com" for close to $10K or why not go after something like QYZO.com (QYZ Online), QYZC.com (QYZ Company/Corporation) for about 1/100th of the price.

I think LLL.com will still go up, but I don't think there is any debate the % gain will be slower than the LLLL.com market since the price range for LLLL.com is in most end users ballpark.

Brad

Great points Snoop.

I would be very surprised if that bulk lot fetches much over half what I sold mine for in bulk.

The whole domain market had a boom from 2002-2007 so it isn't saying much to state that short domains have a history of rising over the last 3 years. The domain industry is a boom and bust market like every other market. So far the big winners are those who got in on the buyout and sold around February, those people will be able to buy back in for a small fraction of what they sold at in my view. I still think we are a long way from the bottom.



According to 3character.com lll.com's have risen by 53% since Oct last year.

I think you are right that 4 letter has done better over the last 6 months, but the question is what is happening now? The direction of the market is strongly down.

Also when comparing the two I think liquidity needs to be taken into account, If I sell $8000 worth of llll.com in one lot what kind of discount will I have to take to what is stated as the minimum price, and how that kind of selling effect prices? I think the discount would be pretty substantial, I recall Reece recently talking about selling bulk lots of llll.com for $35 at the peak of the market. It will be interesting to see what the 4200 llll.com's auction on ebay gets bidded to.

 

[bmugford]

That bulk lot though is the worst of the worst. Most people don't want to be stuck with a lot of 4200 of the bottom 10% tier of LLLL.com. Plus, you have almost $32,000 in renewal fees.

However I think an argument can be made that you are better off taking $10,000 and buying 20 Very Nice Quad Premiums over one very ugly LLL.com

Which domain honestly has a better chance at finding an end user? Something like QYZ.com for $10K, or something like OTCI.com for $1K. I don't think there is any comparison.

I also think a very ugly LLLL.com for $30 is a better buy than a very ugly LLL.com for $8K.

 

[-REECE-]

That I agree with and my experience in both the 3 letter and 4 letter markets has been just that -- very good LLLL.coms > horrible LLL.coms.

That said, I think Snoop's stance has always been against the bottom tier of the market, not the stuff like OTCI which was registered in 1997 when LLL.coms could still be had @ regfee.

That bulk lot though is the worst of the worst. Most people don't want to be stuck with a lot of 4200 of the bottom 10% tier of LLLL.com. Plus, you have almost $32,000 in renewal fees.

However I think an argument can be made that you are better off taking $10,000 and buying 20 Very Nice Quad Premiums over one very ugly LLL.com

Which domain honestly has a better chance at finding an end user? Something like QYZ.com for $10K, or something like OTCI.com for $1K. I don't think there is any comparison.

 

[snoop]

That bulk lot though is the worst of the worst. Most people don't want to be stuck with a lot of 4200 of the bottom 10% tier of LLLL.com. However I think an argument can be made that you are better off taking $10,000 and buying 20 Very Nice Quad Premiums over one very ugly LLL.com

Which domain honestly has a better chance at finding an end user? Something like QYZ.com for $10K, or something like OTCI.com for $1K. I don't think there is any comparison.

We are talking about minimum prices aren't we? Not much point saying they are bad.

The low end ones have no enduser appeal I think we know that, most people buying them know that also. Frankly as far as 3 letter .com's go the really bad ones have hugely outperformed the higher quality ones over the last few years though. Is 10 good quality llll.com's better than one lll.com, I don't know.

 

[bmugford]

I think the low end at $25-$30 is about reasonable. I am not a huge low end fan but I will pick some up now and then between $23-$30.

But I still don't think the prices of low end LLL.com are justified either.
Let's say QYZ.com is worth $10K. Is that really justified either?

When QYZO.com or QYZC.com are worth under $100 and would have an appeal to the same company named "QYZ"

Brad

We are talking about minimum prices aren't we? Not much point saying they are bad.

The low end ones have no enduser appeal I think we know that, not really relevant to which one will do better since most people buying them know that. Frankly as far as 3 letter .com's go the really bad ones have hugely outperformed the higher quality ones over the last few years.

 

[snoop]

But I still don't think the prices of low end LLL.com are justified either.
Let's say QYZ.com is worth $10K. Is that really justified either?

It would get that more like $7500-$7800. Frankly I think lll.com's are ovepriced and poor investments right now, but not to the degree of the llll.com market.

 

[bmugford]

It would get that more like $7500-$7800. Frankly I think lll.com's are ovepriced and poor investments right now, but not to the degree of the llll.com market.

I think you could make an argument that the low end of both are not justified to be honest. I prefer quality over quantity with either LLL.com or LLLL.com

I would rather buy one quad premium or CVCV/VCVC LLLL.com than the equivalent of low ender ones.

Just like I would rather pay $20K for a premium LLL.com than pay $8K for a bad one.

 

[-REECE-]

Agree 100% with both of you

Makes no sense to spend 8k on absolute junk when you can get a very useable LLL.com for 10k or so and an exceptional one for 15-20k.

Compare DATO which me + Michael Goldman recently sold.

DATO has generic meaning in multiple languages including Spanish (means "data").

1. DATO has a godly amount of wordtracker/overture much higher than most all-premium LLL.com
2. Potential endusers? Not even up for debate that DATO has more potential Spanish endusers than a garbage LLL.com has in the WHOLE WORLD. DATO has generic meaning in additional languages as a bonus

We bought DATO for $3145 and resold it for $9001 on Sedo -- just try and see that kind of profit in the LLL.com market with a < 1 month turnaround

I think you could make an argument that the low end of both are not justified to be honest. I prefer quality over quantity with either LLL.com or LLLL.com

I would rather buy one quad premium or CVCV/VCVC LLLL.com than the equivalent of low ender ones.

Just like I would rather pay $20K for a premium LLL.com than pay $8K for a bad one.

It would get that more like $7500-$7800. Frankly I think lll.com's are ovepriced and poor investments right now, but not to the degree of the llll.com market.

 

[bmugford]

DATO.com is a perfect example. As as end user would you rather have QYZ.com on a business card or DATO.com? They would have sold for similar prices (although i thought DATO.com was a steal for the buyer).

I kind of feel the same way about CVCV.com being overpriced. Not the higher end, but the lower end. The whole idea behind CVCV is they are easily pronounceable, and brandable. I don't think the lowest end can support prices in the High $XXX to low $X,XXX range just because they are CVCV.

The average end user has no clue what is a Quad Premium, or CVCV, etc.

Brad

Agree 100% with both of you

Makes no sense to spend 8k on absolute junk when you can get a very useable LLL.com for 10k or so and an exceptional one for 15-20k.

Compare DATO which me + Michael Goldman recently sold.

DATO has generic meaning in multiple languages including Spanish (means "data").

1. DATO has a godly amount of wordtracker/overture much higher than most all-premium LLL.com
2. Potential endusers? Not even up for debate that DATO has more potential Spanish endusers than a garbage LLL.com has in the WHOLE WORLD. DATO has generic meaning in additional languages as a bonus

We bought DATO for $3145 and resold it for $9001 on Sedo -- just try and see that kind of profit in the LLL.com market with a < 1 month turnaround

 

[snoop]

DATO.com is a perfect example. As as end user would you rather have QYZ.com on a business card or DATO.com?

The question is which one will appreciate more rather than which one would look better on a business card. These are two completely different types of domains, with value due to very different reasons.

 

[-REECE-]

Again agree 100% Brad. Paying 2k for a useless CVCV when 5k buys you a gem and 10k buys you something extraordinary is somewhat foolish imho.

As you said -- the idea behind a CVCV is that it could be the next BEBO. Paying a certain price because it fits a particular label is something only a rookie domainer would consider doing. Some quad premiums have lower odds of finding endusers than some triple premiums, but because rookie domainers seem to largely outnumber experienced domains, we'll see triple premiums struggle and garbage quads continue to trade at high levels -- kind of like the LLL.com market :imho:

DATO.com is a perfect example. As as end user would you rather have QYZ.com on a business card or DATO.com? They would have sold for similar prices (although i thought DATO.com was a steal for the buyer).

I kind of feel the same way about CVCV.com being overpriced. Not the higher end, but the lower end. The whole idea behind CVCV is they are easily pronounceable, and brandable. I don't think the lowest end can support prices in the High $XXX to low $X,XXX range just because they are CVCV.

The average end user has no clue what is a Quad Premium, or CVCV, etc.

Brad

 

[AussieDomainer]

DATO.com is a perfect example. As as end user would you rather have QYZ.com on a business card or DATO.com? They would have sold for similar prices (although i thought DATO.com was a steal for the buyer).

I kind of feel the same way about CVCV.com being overpriced. Not the higher end, but the lower end. The whole idea behind CVCV is they are easily pronounceable, and brandable. I don't think the lowest end can support prices in the High $XXX to low $X,XXX range just because they are CVCV.

The average end user has no clue what is a Quad Premium, or CVCV, etc.

Brad

Excellent points. I totally agree with you and Reece on this matter. I think pronounceability is the key with 4L.com's and just because it's CVCV.com means nothing in the end. A VCVC.com or VCCV.com etc could be much better if easier to pronounce. I also think a good pronounceable 4L.com is better than a garbage LLL.com. LLL.com's need to have meaning and be an acronym that is used by the public or companies or be very easy to remember such as BQB.com

And yes, I think DATO.com was a very good price for the buyer at $9,000. Definitely would rather put $9K into that then a low quality LLL.com

 

[-REECE-]

I'd prefer DATO myself

DATO is at the very peak of reported CVCV sales and indeed an extreme outlier and perhaps not the best example of 4 letter .coms being valuable in that regard, but is a good example of how good of an LLLL.com can be had for the price of a subpar LLL.com.

The question is which one will appreciate more rather than which one would look better on a business card. These are two completely different types of domains, with value due to very different reasons.

 

[AussieDomainer]

The question is which one will appreciate more rather than which one would look better on a business card. These are two completely different types of domains, with value due to very different reasons.

I'd rather DATO even if it didn't have meaning in Spanish. Both for the fact that it is easier to remember, would look better on a business card and I think will have better growth than a similar value LLL.com :imho:

 

[-REECE-]

Compare BQB.com bought at 8.3k in February versus min wholesale then which was about $6700. I was able to make an acronym out of BQB which made sense for my business -- I struggle considerably to make acronyms for some of those min wholesale LLL.coms even with dictionaries + thesauri present.

Excellent points. I totally agree with you and Reece on this matter. I think pronounceability is the key with 4L.com's and just because it's CVCV.com means nothing in the end. A VCVC.com or VCCV.com etc could be much better if easier to pronounce. I also think a good pronounceable 4L.com is better than a garbage LLL.com. LLL.com's need to have meaning and be an acronym that is used by the public or companies or be very easy to remember such as BQB.com

And yes, I think DATO.com was a very good price for the buyer at $9,000. Definitely would rather put $9K into that then a low quality LLL.com

 

[snoop]

Some quad premiums have lower odds of finding endusers than some triple premiums, but because rookie domainers seem to largely outnumber experienced domains, we'll see triple premiums struggle and garbage quads continue to trade at high levels -- kind of like the LLL.com market :imho:

Very true, I think this is what has happened with lll.com's, large amount of new entrants buying at the lower end. I think it is a common view at the moment that 'lll.com's never go down' so people are willing to offer $7000 or so regardless of quality (and smaller premiums that in the past for better names). It has the appearance of low risk buying. This type of buying is one reason why I think current lll.com's prices will not be sustained over the next 12 months. Then again I may be completely wrong on this :red:

 

[accent]

I think the overall economy will dictate how the domain market moves. If it starts to improve, as I expect, after the summer, then the domain market will soon recover. If it starts to dig a deeper hole then all bets are off. But Saudi is saying that they are going to pump more oil, I take that as a sign that the worst is past us.

A curious fact that I have been chewing on is that poor LLL.coms are running about half the price of all-premium or better LLL.coms. Despite the fact that the percentage of LLLL domains containing one or more non-premium letters is higher, this would point to a major narrowing of the gap between the poorest LLLL.coms and the better ones, as the market progresses. Renewal fees have to be included in that calculation, but if I was buying now I would be looking at the low end. (I have plenty LLLL, need to diversify)

As for the 4200 LLLL lot on eBay - it all depends on how you look at it. Would you be better off spending a lot of time hand selecting domains (assuming you have the knowledge to do so)? Sure.

But for an investor who wants exposure to the LLLL.com market and has little time and/or knowledge, it could be a very good move. Say they sell for $20 each = $84,000. Then say that the buyer holds them for four years = $128,000 Total cost == $212,000. If a few sell to end users (they are not as bad as people are saying, I saw some triple premiums), so much the better, and there will be a trickle of traffic. Call it $200,000. If you sold them for $100 -- in four years then you would double your money - better than the stock market, most likely, and a lot better than bonds or most other investments. And I expect the minimum to be a whole lot higher than $100 in four years.

 

[-REECE-]

IF (and imho it still is very much an IF) the economy improves, I think we'll see LLLL.com prices quickly improve.

Low end LLL.coms are either a bubble waiting to happen or the upper end is severely undervalued -- I'm more likely to side with the former than the latter. As Snoop explained, it's not the LLL.com market which is rapidly appreciating in value -- merely the low end segment. From what I've seen this year, it actually appears premium LLL.coms are more affordable today than they were a few months back. I do not see this trend holding with LLLL.coms and I truly believe one is living in a fairy tale if they believe the worst LLLL.coms will one day fetch 1/4 of what quad premiums go for, like we see in the LLL.com market.

I agree with you that $100 seems to be a conservative appraisal of a low quality LLLL.com 4 years from now. Still, if we take the 4200 LLLL.coms as an example, how many people in the entire domain world have 200k to spend on speculative domains? I would guess the number is very small and most that have that kind of money are doing well enough for themselves that they really need not gamble at all (eg. they know what they're doing and need not take risks whose odds of paying off are difficult to calculate). Most expensive domains (100k+) have been hit extremely hard this year and literally plummeted in value. While LLLL.coms may be an excellent invest over the next 4 years, so too will many of these names imho. Hard to say which will necessarily be better and I think we can all agree going with something like OW.com @ 120k is certainly a much safer investment.

I think the overall economy will dictate how the domain market moves. If it starts to improve, as I expect, after the summer, then the domain market will soon recover. If it starts to dig a deeper hole then all bets are off. But Saudi is saying that they are going to pump more oil, I take that as a sign that the worst is past us.

A curious fact that I have been chewing on is that poor LLL.coms are running about half the price of all-premium or better LLL.coms. Despite the fact that the percentage of LLLL domains containing one or more non-premium letters is higher, this would point to a major narrowing of the gap between the poorest LLLL.coms and the better ones, as the market progresses. Renewal fees have to be included in that calculation, but if I was buying now I would be looking at the low end. (I have plenty LLLL, need to diversify)

As for the 4200 LLLL lot on eBay - it all depends on how you look at it. Would you be better off spending a lot of time hand selecting domains (assuming you have the knowledge to do so)? Sure.

But for an investor who wants exposure to the LLLL.com market and has little time and/or knowledge, it could be a very good move. Say they sell for $20 each = $84,000. Then say that the buyer holds them for four years = $128,000 Total cost == $212,000. If a few sell to end users (they are not as bad as people are saying, I saw some triple premiums), so much the better, and there will be a trickle of traffic. Call it $200,000. If you sold them for $100 -- in four years then you would double your money - better than the stock market, most likely, and a lot better than bonds or most other investments. And I expect the minimum to be a whole lot higher than $100 in four years.

 

[jarmas]

Spent the last 1 hour reading this thread. Very interesting points that were being brought up. Personally I think if Obama wins the presidential elections on the 4th of Nov with no more war. Prices would certainly go up even if market were to crash leading from now to Nov 2nd. However if McCain wins and war continues for another 4 years, things may spiral down as middle-class US citizens would worry about paying their bills than expanding their businesses.