LLLL.com Value Decreasing?

[DLarkin84]

Ok so everyone is always talking about how LLLL.com values are constantly increasing but does anyone think the value of them could ever decrease? Please list some reasons why you think LLLL.com's will continue to increase in value or why LLLL.com will eventually decrease in value.

 

[bmugford]

The market is showing a correction. It happens with any investment. I don't think any of these "The Sky is Falling" predictions will come true.

The problem is the uncertainty of the economy. People have taken money off the table which is effecting liquidity just like with the stock market. The thing most people don't realize is holding money in cash is no big winner since inflation eats at its value.

 

[-REECE-]

LLLL.coms are a long term bet. If you invest today and try to flip today, you probably will get burnt imho. I've been saying this since March and low and behold, it's coming true.

As I've said time and time again, LLLL.coms are a long term play. If you believe LLL.coms are going to continue their meteoric rise, then you must accept that alternatives will become increasingly valuable as well.

Imho the future is very bright for LLLL.coms. Not sure about today, this month, next month, or any month before renewals for that matter. But if you stuff a few of them away, pre-pay them for 10 years and forget about them until then, I think you'll do quite well for yourself. Short term will have it's ups and downs, as seen in any market. Times may get better, times may get worse. Market might crash for another 4 months, market might stagnate for another 4 months, market might shock the $%^& out of Reece + Snoop and grow increasingly strong over the next 4 months. Way too many variables to know anything with certainty. Take a chance, Sell out, cry me a river... Long term it really doesn't matter what any of us do.

You're either on the LLLL.com boat or you're not. Jump off the boat and drown? Be my guest. Cry bloody murder when "major investors" buy up what newbies drop or overreact and sell excessively cheap? Again, be my guest. None of this matters in the end... The market will do what the market will do.

In the meantime, how about we stop all these LLLL.coms are going up, LLLL.coms are going down, market is flooded, etc threads and posts. They don't accomplish anything and just confuse investors even further. The LLL.com market is a poster boy for healthy growth over the last 6 years. Hype is equally as destructive as panic. What we need is slow, steady growth and until that happens the market will remain turbulent imho.

 

[accent]

Here it is again, folks. You guys want to argue with the graph, it won't bother me:

http://dyyo.com/analysis_remaining.php

There is no big renewal overhang in September/ October - or whenever. It just ain't there. Registrations of LLLL.coms were as steady as anyone could imagine throughout the last two years of their availability --- the only point where they deviated from a near-perfect straight line graph was during the .mobi landrush - which does show that there was a lot of investor demand involved. It also is interesting that the 4200 domain lot now on the market at eBay was purchased on only a few dates, yet did not disturb the trend.

Anyway, tales of a renewal crunch do not make any sense to me. The quality of the domains fell during those last months, maybe that matters - but only if the minimum price were to fall a lot more.

There is a downturn to be expected during the summer months as people are away from their computers more and are spending on summer vacations - and are cashing out for the same reason. So, perhaps , there will be some more downward price pressure. Potential big buyers might be holding out for even lower prices. If the economy starts to recover in the fall things will look better then. But domaining is captive to the world and US economies.

Folks who rode the price rise are dismayed that they cannot keep flipping. I suspect many were caught with a lot of newly-purchased inventory at the top. Part of the game. I suspect most came out ahead, overall.

 

[snoop]

So Snoop I have a question for you. If the market truly is to crash then what are new domainers to invest in? As far as my comment regarding the different letter trends and people not believing in them. There has been a buyout for everything correct? I'm sure if every one thought LLL.coms were the big thing back in the day ie. pre-buyout don't you think the first person to actually realize such a thing as LLL existed would have bought up the majority if not all? It's the simple law of supply and demand. The more people that enter the domaining market, the less options people have, the higher the price.

Forget about "buyouts", this is a fad that lasted a couple of years, it has all been done to the point of extreme saturation and it only works in boom times with a lot of new people entering the market. The domain market is now in a downturn, the US is in recession. Aside from markets where supply is truly tight and demand is strong (like 3 letter) far fewer people will continue to buy domains just in the hope to passing the buck to another domainer for a higher price. Once the "new money" flow slows it all crashes (like is happening right now).

Look for domains the have the ability to earn cashflow, through development, through parking-something which can make money other than via passing the hot potato to new domainers.

 

[chenzen]

Forget about "buyouts", this is a fad that lasted a couple of years, it has all been done to the point of extreme saturation and it only works in boom times with a lot of new people entering the market. The domain market is now in a downturn, the US is in recession. Aside from markets where supply is truly tight and demand is strong (like 3 letter) far fewer people will continue to buy domains just in the hope to passing the buck to another domainer for a higher price. Once the "new money" flow slows it all crashes (like is happening right now).

Look for domains the have the ability to earn cashflow, through development, through parking-something which can make money other than via passing the hot potato to new domainers.

I will suggest you guys to just ignore snoop if you strongly believe in LLLL.com, else just listen to what Reece has to say

 

[snoop]

I will suggest you guys to just ignore snoop if you strongly believe in LLLL.com, else just listen to what Reece has to say

This is what member italiandragon suggested 4 months ago when I predicted llll.com would go to $15 by Jan 2009 whilst many others said $100-$200. Alot of people do ignore me so you are not alone. :music:

http://www.namepros.com/short-domai...ill-price-january-2009-llll.html?#post2535803

 

[chenzen]

you said

I think around $15. Strange that these (and lll.com) would be rising whilst the rest of the market is in decline. A sharp correction in prices is due in my view.

since lll.com prices are increasing, so i am sure you will agree that llll.com prices will also increase

 

[ODST.com]

My whole argument was that the domaining market has plenty of room to grow. With growth comes more cash flow and more demand for these hot potato items. I see nothing special about some of these CCC.coms or LLL.coms and yet they still retain their value and continue to grow. Yes Snoop your argument on investing does make sense. Find domains that have intrinsic value, develop, and hold I am not disagreeing with you there. It is merely going back to the fact that these are collectors items just screaming out for endusers IMHO

 

[tristanperry]

I think Reece is mostly right - speculation and panic posts won't help much at all.

In the long run, internet growth is rising exponentially. And whilst there is money to be lost in the short term with LLLL.coms (unlike in 07 - that was a great period!), it's hardly likely that things will crash in the long run, considering the internet's growth.

 

[snoop]

I see nothing special about some of these CCC.coms or LLL.coms and yet they still retain their value and continue to grow. Yes Snoop your argument on investing does make sense. Find domains that have intrinsic value, develop, and hold I am not disagreeing with you there. It is merely going back to the fact that these are collectors items just screaming out for endusers IMHO

The lll.com's have a very strong enduser market, the bulk are higher quality terms already in enduser hands. In particular it is very common for corporates to use 3 letter acronym as the first part of their company name, the same cannot be said for 4 letter acorymn's, it isn't nearly as common.

The perhaps 4000-5000 names still in domainer hands (many of which are junky ones) still have high values because the rest are already accounted for by endusers, the reseller pool really isn't that big, supply is restricted.

The number of 4 letter .com's that have no real enduser market is very large, several hundred thousand names, it is a completely different market, large amounts of names with no obvious cashed up potential buyers, and high holding costs in the relation to the value of the name.

That is not to say that I see the lll.com's as cheap at the moment though, personally I think it is an inflated market as well right now (which why I am selling a good chunk on mine, while the market is on a high). However it isn't inflated the to the degree that the llll.com's were. A major bubble compared to a mini bubble perhaps.

 

[ODST.com]

You've covered the LLL market great Snoop how do you explain CCC.coms?

 

[snoop]

You've covered the LLL market great Snoop how do you explain CCC.coms?

It isn't a market I have ever really followed so I don't really have much of an opinion on it, I can see the appeal in them though and the numbers are tight to a degree.

 

[ecigs.net]

Aside from markets where supply is truly tight and demand is strong (like 3 letter) far fewer people will continue to buy domains just in the hope to passing the buck to another domainer for a higher price. Once the "new money" flow slows it all crashes (like is happening right now).

It mostly looks like these names are being traded around between domainers. The facts are, if the name can be branded, has real traffic or has somebody that really wants it, it has a value. If it has none of these things, nobody is going to pay a lot of money just to have a short name.

Take a look at these domain names:
kqxz.com, kqzx.com, kzqx.com, kzxq.com, kxzq.com, kxqz.com, qkxz.com, qkzx.com, qzkx.com, qzxk.com, qxzk.com, qxkz.com, xkqz.com, xkzq.com, xzkq.com, xzqk.com, xqzk.com, xqkz.com, zkxq.com, zkqx.com, zqkx.com, zqxk.com, zxqk.com, zxkq.com.

Now read the below article by Guy Kawasaki and tell me if you think some big company is going to pay a lot of money for these in the future. I've seen this article on a dozen sites on the Internet and I learn something every time I read it:


"The Art Of The Start: The Time-Tested, Battle-Hardened Guide For Anyone"
By Guy Kawasaki

Don’t Compromise On Your Name (Including your domain name)

A remarkable name for your organization, product, or service is like pornography: It’s hard to define, but you know it when you see it. Coming up with a good name is easier than creating a product or service, but you wouldn’t think so based on the atrocities out there. Spend the time and effort to come up with a good name - it makes positioning easier. Here are some tips for the process:

Have a first initials that’s early in the alphabet. Someday your organization’s, product’s, or service’s name will appear in an alphabetical list. Better to be early in the list than later. Imagine, for example, a trade show with a thousand exhibitors. Do you want to be in the first third or last third of the show’s directory? Also, avoid words that begin with X or Z because they are difficult to spell out after hearing them. For example, if you heard “Xylinx,” would you think that it’s spelled “Xylinx” or “Zylinx”?

Avoid Numbers.

They are bad ideas for names because people won’t remember whether to use numerals (123) or to spell out the number (One Two Three).

Pick a name with a “Verb Potential.” In a perfect world, your name enters the mainstream vernacular and becomes a verb. For example, people “Xerox” documents - as opposed to photocopy them. More recently, people “google” words instead of “searching for them on the internet.” Names that work as verbs are short (no more than two or three syllables) and not tongue twisters. AWOA (a word on acronyms): Avoid multiple-word names unless the first word solid verb potential (for example, “Google Technology Corporation” would still be fine) or the acronym spells out something clever. For example, the name Hawaiian Islands Ministry, a parachurch organization that trains pastors and ministers, becomes “HIM” - a clever homonym with “hymn” and a play on “Him,” that is , God.

Exercise
See if the name your’re considering works in this sentence:
“______________________ it.”

Sound different (as opposed to “think different”). The name should sound like nothing else. For (a bad example: Claris, Clarins, Claritin, and Claria. It’s hard to remember which name refers to software, cosmetics, antihistamines, or line marketing. Even if you did remember, it’s likely that you would associate all four words with one category, and that can’t be good in three of four instances.

Sound Logical. In addition to sounding different, your names should also sound logical. That is, they should “match” what you do. A good example of this is the most clever examples of naming that you’ll come across. Take Geodude and Lickitung, for example. Ask your kids to show you the cards of the characters Beautifly, Delcatty, Flygon, and Huntail, and you’ll see what I mean about logical names and good positioning.

Avoid the trendy.

With hindsight, we made two mistakes naming Garage Technology Ventures when we started in in 1997. First, we initially called the company, garage.com.” Unfortunately, dotcom acquired negative connotations when the Internet tide went out because it came to stand for companies run by people without business acumen in markets without business models. The second mistake was lowercasing the “g” in garage.com. It was silly act of pseudohumility, but those were silly times. The problem with the lowercase “g” was that it was hard to pick it out in blocks of text. The visual cue that the word was a proper noun wasn’t there - you’d think that someone named guy (sic) would know this. Also, no one could really figure out what to do when a sentence started with “garage.com” - should it be capitalized or not? The bottom line, in hindsight, is that you should come up with a name that will endure for decades, and save your cleverness for the features of your products and services. On the other hand, consider the name Krispy Kreme. It doesn’t start with a letter early in the alphabet, and both “crispy” and “cream” are spelled incorrectly. Furthermore, the company’s donuts are neither crispy nor creamy. What his proves is that if you have a truely great product, it can overcome anything. One last example: I saw a great name for a company in a restroom at the Calgary International Airport. The company sells billboard advertising space in restrooms, and its name was Flushmedia. Brilliant.

After reading that, do you really think somebody is going to pay for crappy names just because they are LLLL.com? IMHO, hell no.

 

[VURG]

Here is an interesting discussion on LLLL.com that puts Namepros optimistic view on LLLL.com in context:

http://www.domainstate.com/showthread.php3?threadid=91243

 

[DLarkin84]

Here is an interesting discussion on LLLL.com that puts Namepros optimistic view on LLLL.com in context:

http://www.domainstate.com/showthread.php3?threadid=91243

wow thats crazy!!

 

[italiandragon]

This is what member italiandragon suggested 4 months ago when I predicted llll.com would go to $15 by Jan 2009 whilst many others said $100-$200. Alot of people do ignore me so you are not alone. :music:

http://www.namepros.com/short-domai...ill-price-january-2009-llll.html?#post2535803

It`s very low attacking someone when the person is unable to reply.

Congratulations Snoop: you achieved your mission bashing LLLL.com

I wish everyone notice that OIL prices was not taken into consideration and in a Worldwide recession we are moving in, unfortunately some downtrend in THE SHORT TERM was inevitable. You did not manage to get your $100,000 asking price on FFF.com , don`t you wonder why? Same reason.

 

[-REECE-]

Lorenzo, welcome back

Agree with you 100%. Short term the trend is down and will stay down imho. Long term is up, up, up imho

It`s very low attacking someone when the person is unable to reply.

Congratulations Snoop: you achieved your mission bashing LLLL.com

I wish everyone notice that OIL prices was not taken into consideration and in a Worldwide recession we are moving in, unfortunately some downtrend in THE SHORT TERM was inevitable. You did not manage to get your $100,000 asking price on FFF.com , don`t you wonder why? Same reason.

 

[bmugford]

Welcome back, you were missed.

It`s very low attacking someone when the person is unable to reply.

Congratulations Snoop: you achieved your mission bashing LLLL.com

I wish everyone notice that OIL prices was not taken into consideration and in a Worldwide recession we are moving in, unfortunately some downtrend in THE SHORT TERM was inevitable. You did not manage to get your $100,000 asking price on FFF.com , don`t you wonder why? Same reason.

 

[-REECE-]

I would have offered my entire LLLL.com collection for FFF, but I didn't think Snoop would accept that :hehe:

You did not manage to get your $100,000 asking price on FFF.com , don`t you wonder why? Same reason.

 

[AussieDomainer]

It`s very low attacking someone when the person is unable to reply.

Congratulations Snoop: you achieved your mission bashing LLLL.com

I wish everyone notice that OIL prices was not taken into consideration and in a Worldwide recession we are moving in, unfortunately some downtrend in THE SHORT TERM was inevitable. You did not manage to get your $100,000 asking price on FFF.com , don`t you wonder why? Same reason.

Welcome back Lorenzo! It's great to see the might dragon around again.
:kickass: