LLLL.com COUNTDOWN!

[VURG]

COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

NO MORE 4 LETTER DOMAIN AVAILABLE TO REGISTER! ​

_______________________________________________________________

Since early 2005, I have been investing/trading with 4 letter domain names. I started this thread due to the large variation in opinions on how many four letter domains there are available. When I started, I heard a range on viewpoints ranging from 200,000 down to nothing. What I learned that most people did not know how many were available.

Sources of Error for the estimates in number of available 4 letter domains include:

Traffic Testers: These are people who buy thousands of domains at a time to see if the domains are being visited and only keep the small percentage of domains that have regular visitors and cancel their orders for the domains that don't have a regular flow of visitors.

Inefficient ways of making estimates: There are over 450 thousand possible 4-Letter domains. There are short cuts that people can take in estimating the number that been registered that don't include all domains. One short cut that is often taken is for somebody to search through a list of previously available 4 letter names that they purchased (or got for free) and assume that all the names that are not on that list are registered.

People quoting old information:The variation in the number available changes all the time. Estimates that are months old are very different than up to date estimates.

People manipulating information for a sale:It definately is true that incorrect information on the available number of 4-letter domains can intensionally be manipulated to sell 4-letter domains at a higher price. Typically the lack of supply tends to motivate people to pay higher prices.

As a 4-letter domain trader, I believe that the information of how many 4-letter domains there are is extremely valuable for two main reasons. Firstly, my pricing of my names is subject to the amount of work it requires for customer to find for similar name. Secondly, if I want to increase my stock of 4-letter names than the information of how many there are at reg fee prices is essential.

I decided to update this thread when the number of available 4-letter domains dropped to the following levels:
22% Remaining - 25th January 2006
19% Remaining - 31st March 2006
16% Remaining - 29th June 2006
13% Remaining - 1st August 2006
10% Remaining - 15th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early April)
9% Remaining - 26th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early May)
8% Remaining - 2nd March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing in June)
7% Remaining - 21st March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early July)
6% Remaining - 3rd July 2007(crossed without traffic testing some time in July)
5% Remaining - 1st August 2007(crossed without traffic testing August 11)
4% Remaining - 14th August 2007(crossed late August)
3% Remaining - 15th September 2007(crossed In September)
2% Remaining - 14th October 2007
1% Remaining - 31st October 2007
0% Remaining - 2nd November - COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

Although, the number of available domains does sometime rise straight after it drops due to traffic testing and people dropping their domains, I don't consider it worth mentioning unless the rise is as significant as a 3% rise in the number of available domains.

Types of Four Letter Domains that have run out include:
- ALL OF THEM!

Since I started this thread important event about four letter domains that are worth mentioning happenned:

1: Late March/Early April 2006 there was a significant shift in the market for brandable (fake words) 4-letter domains and they started selling at significantly higher prices and the market for the names has been a lot more active ever since.

2: In July 2006, a namepros member 3par launched DYYO.com as a site committed to educating people about 4 letter domains. This is an excellent resource for those who are interested in 4 letter domain names.

3: In early February 2007. All the 4 letter domains starting with the letter A ran out.

4: wasistdas won QQNQ.COM, PCZV.COM & IQKE.COM for the competition for predicting when the 4 Letter domains would run out
_______________________________________________________________
Initial Post
Less than 23% of the 4 letter domain names are unregistered. I thought I'd try to keep this thread updated every time I discover another 1% reduction. I am now routinely checking the percentage of unregisted 4 letter domains.

 

[Travis]

9% BARRIER CROSSED

Next Update at 8%

DYYO reads 39850 LLLL.com today!​

I'm glad we are getting much closer.

 

[cache]

you scanner is 5-letter not 4-letter, right?

Hi guys, I think you might benefit from using my scanner, see the link in my signature. The results are live, so you dont have the disadvantage of having outdated lists and that kind of thing.

In my personal opinion, I think the good ones are disappearing at an exponential rate. The figures you guys are posting are too quantitative and not qualitative enough. What should interest you most is how fast the premium combinations are going, which is a far higher rate than all combinations in general.

Get registering if you want in this game, because it's nearly over.

 

[poker_bears]

What do you guys think random gibberish LLLL's will go for 10 years from now? Reg fee, $100, $500, $1000+?

It just seems that with the internet expanding dramatically, anything with four characters will be valuable 10-15 years from now.

 

[cache]

if we know for sure they will be valuable, we would be mortgage our house to
buy out all the LLLLs.

What do you guys think random gibberish LLLL's will go for 10 years from now? Reg fee, $100, $500, $1000+?

It just seems that with the internet expanding dramatically, anything with four characters will be valuable 10-15 years from now.

 

[accent]

If you figure 1/26 th of the value of a LLL.com (there are 26 times as many LLLL as LLL) and massage the number a little to reflect the larger market at lower prices and the preference of three letter acronyms (maybe those will cancel out), you get a current value of something like $100 for the worst LLLL.com - which is nuts, but thems the numbers. If anybody believed that then they would buy the pile today.

Regardless of the "target value", to use a stock market term, there will be a period of adjustment after they all sell out where those who are happy to double or triple their money sell to those who are looking long term. It may take several years to work it's way out.

And remember, the entire domain market is subject to the ups and downs of the US and World economy. The US stock market has been rising the last 4 years steadily, as has the domain market. What goes up can come down, and reg fees are due regardless.

 

[fonzie_007]

Regardless of what you think the crummy LLLL.com are going to sell for in the future, LLLL.coms with better letters ARE worth something today. If you see a LLLL.com with decent letters or that is pronunciable, reg it and you'll make a ROR of potentially 500%+.

 

[dag]

you scanner is 5-letter not 4-letter, right?

His scanner can be used for anything up to 5 letters. Just don't fill in the end box(es).

 

[Shorty]

Thanks dagersh.

Sorry guys, i'd have replied in this thread sooner but I had browser problems. I added the 5th box because I realised the tool had the scope to extend into finding pronouncable names too, using CVCVC.

By the way, i'll soon by moving the scanner to a new permanent home at www.domainscanner.net. I'm currently developing a couple of extra features to be added in the near future, but certain design aspects still need addressing. Let me know what you think.

Anyway, i'm glad LLLL.coms are declining, the faster the better for those who have some decent ones. How fast are we expecting them to go? I'm predicting that as soon as there are about 5% left, the speculation will drive registrations up to 3x as fast.

 

[floatingworld]

...well dyyo is now broadcasting 39,850
...whether the tasters are now pigging it up I do not know, but it could be that everybody is just piling in to get a slice of the action................

 

[mitok]

...well dyyo is now broadcasting 39,850
...whether the tasters are now pigging it up I do not know, but it could be that everybody is just piling in to get a slice of the action................

According to dyyo.com, the number of available LLLL.coms is now 34737 !!!
Looks great! :hehe:

 

[floatingworld]

.........that's because nutcases like me are still regging some names! its funny how the boundaries of acceptability keep shifting in line with the diminishing pool
:gn:

 

[fonzie_007]

The scoop is to reg any decent lettered LLLL.com you can. As floatingworld noted, the quality of the available domains is rapidly decreasing.

 

[3par]

Due to the increased traffic testing, dyyo has to publish daily update of available LLLL list.

Though registration rate picked up in 2007, it is not that dramatic so as to drive down the available number to 35K. The realistic number is around 50K.

The traffic tester actually slows down the registration, as they make the available pool smaller. Like for domains started with 'A', it might be completely gone at the beginning of January, but the traffic tester held 60+ domains and those are eventually picked up after one more month.

 

[Keynes]

3par, amdo.com is a killer name! Thanks for all the updates -- the LLLL should clear out later this year -- that's when the fun begins!

 

[Lasher]

Due to the increased traffic testing, dyyo has to publish daily update of available LLLL list.

Though registration rate picked up in 2007, it is not that dramatic so as to drive down the available number to 35K. The realistic number is around 50K.

The traffic tester actually slows down the registration, as they make the available pool smaller. Like for domains started with 'A', it might be completely gone at the beginning of January, but the traffic tester held 60+ domains and those are eventually picked up after one more month.

I watch zone file changes and pay particular attention to LLLL.com - LLLL drops with all quality letters are increasingly rare. Those that do drop are usually picked up at auction and don't get to the tasters. Those few that do get tasted rarely drop again.

Like Fonzie said, if you get a chance to register all 'good letter' (typically not z,x,q .. with j,k,u,v,y,w debatable) LLLL.com go for it.

 

[Malaysia]

haha i just dropped some ALLL.coms
too much to renew.. STill got anoth 400 LLLL.coms to renew soon...
Now godaddy have domain clubpay 89.99 to get .6.49 per domain..its pretty worth it i thinkbetter than get directi have to pay 11k deposit

 

[VURG]

Thanks mitok for the info

8% Barrier Crossed

Update at 7%​

 

[poker_bears]

At what point would a buyout likely occur?

 

[VURG]

Who knows. Any buyout needs 6 days to verify as traffic testers could buy out all of the domains and drop them 5 days later. I don't understand why people traffic test LLLL.com. They've all been tested before.

Even after a buyout, there could still be thousands dropping in the following month.

 

[gregsta1]

LLLL.com is worthless

Why do u think they are worthless?