LLLL.com COUNTDOWN!

[VURG]

COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

NO MORE 4 LETTER DOMAIN AVAILABLE TO REGISTER! ​

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Since early 2005, I have been investing/trading with 4 letter domain names. I started this thread due to the large variation in opinions on how many four letter domains there are available. When I started, I heard a range on viewpoints ranging from 200,000 down to nothing. What I learned that most people did not know how many were available.

Sources of Error for the estimates in number of available 4 letter domains include:

Traffic Testers: These are people who buy thousands of domains at a time to see if the domains are being visited and only keep the small percentage of domains that have regular visitors and cancel their orders for the domains that don't have a regular flow of visitors.

Inefficient ways of making estimates: There are over 450 thousand possible 4-Letter domains. There are short cuts that people can take in estimating the number that been registered that don't include all domains. One short cut that is often taken is for somebody to search through a list of previously available 4 letter names that they purchased (or got for free) and assume that all the names that are not on that list are registered.

People quoting old information:The variation in the number available changes all the time. Estimates that are months old are very different than up to date estimates.

People manipulating information for a sale:It definately is true that incorrect information on the available number of 4-letter domains can intensionally be manipulated to sell 4-letter domains at a higher price. Typically the lack of supply tends to motivate people to pay higher prices.

As a 4-letter domain trader, I believe that the information of how many 4-letter domains there are is extremely valuable for two main reasons. Firstly, my pricing of my names is subject to the amount of work it requires for customer to find for similar name. Secondly, if I want to increase my stock of 4-letter names than the information of how many there are at reg fee prices is essential.

I decided to update this thread when the number of available 4-letter domains dropped to the following levels:
22% Remaining - 25th January 2006
19% Remaining - 31st March 2006
16% Remaining - 29th June 2006
13% Remaining - 1st August 2006
10% Remaining - 15th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early April)
9% Remaining - 26th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early May)
8% Remaining - 2nd March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing in June)
7% Remaining - 21st March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early July)
6% Remaining - 3rd July 2007(crossed without traffic testing some time in July)
5% Remaining - 1st August 2007(crossed without traffic testing August 11)
4% Remaining - 14th August 2007(crossed late August)
3% Remaining - 15th September 2007(crossed In September)
2% Remaining - 14th October 2007
1% Remaining - 31st October 2007
0% Remaining - 2nd November - COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

Although, the number of available domains does sometime rise straight after it drops due to traffic testing and people dropping their domains, I don't consider it worth mentioning unless the rise is as significant as a 3% rise in the number of available domains.

Types of Four Letter Domains that have run out include:
- ALL OF THEM!

Since I started this thread important event about four letter domains that are worth mentioning happenned:

1: Late March/Early April 2006 there was a significant shift in the market for brandable (fake words) 4-letter domains and they started selling at significantly higher prices and the market for the names has been a lot more active ever since.

2: In July 2006, a namepros member 3par launched DYYO.com as a site committed to educating people about 4 letter domains. This is an excellent resource for those who are interested in 4 letter domain names.

3: In early February 2007. All the 4 letter domains starting with the letter A ran out.

4: wasistdas won QQNQ.COM, PCZV.COM & IQKE.COM for the competition for predicting when the 4 Letter domains would run out
_______________________________________________________________
Initial Post
Less than 23% of the 4 letter domain names are unregistered. I thought I'd try to keep this thread updated every time I discover another 1% reduction. I am now routinely checking the percentage of unregisted 4 letter domains.

 

[-REECE-]

I do agree with the logic - if anything is gone it becomes worth more, whether its 5 letter pronounceables, LLLLs, L-L-Ls, etc. The question is whether they'll ever be gone.

The devil is right here next to me, and I've decided to be his advocate I guess.

Anything is worth more when they're gone -- that is correct. But the question to be asked is how much more will they be worth?

Currently, absolutely junk LLLL.com cannot even fetch reg fee. So if they're all sold out and can now fetch reg fee, that would theoretically be an increase. When a domainer can make 60% returns annually with ease investing in LLL.coms, it's no longer about profitability, but rather a sound cost/benefit analysis. LLLL.coms may be worth more than reg fee when they're all sold out, but whether they'll go up in value at a pace rapid enough to justify such an investment is a matter still up for discussion.

 

[GreenGambler]

LLLL.coms may be worth more than reg fee when they're all sold out, but whether they'll go up in value at a pace rapid enough to justify such an investment is a matter still up for discussion.

Basically I think that if the number of domainers new to the market and domainers retaining interest in the market continue to grow, then yes, the value of LLLL.coms will continue to increase once they are all sold out.

I wouldn't be surprised if the increase in value of LLLL.coms somehow parralles the increase in new domainers to the market.

 

[-REECE-]

I wouldn't be surprised if the increase in value of LLLL.coms somehow parralles the increase in new domainers to the market.

I wouldn't be surprised either. But will it be more profitable than LLL.coms?

There's nothing stopping me, or probably at least half of us here from putting a reverse mortgage on our house for enough to buy out the LLLL.coms. If we really were 100% confident in it's long term profitability, why wouldn't we do that in a heartbeat?

There's just so many alternatives out there at the moment... Assuming an $8 reg fee, your LLLL.com would have to be worth ~$200 five years down for it to possibly be considered a better investment than a LLL.com assuming current growth rates of approximately 60% annually.

When you factor in the risk involved, I'd want 100% ROI, minimum meaning a minimum $500 five years down the road. Realistic? I don't know. I highly doubt they'll be much higher than that 5 years down the road though, under any circumstances.

 

[jacal1]

Reece, you make an excellent point, and here's an example: If I have $60,000 to spend, I am 100% sure I am better off going to TRAFFIC Miami and getting a good deal on 1 fantastic generic or two excellent generics than I am with all 14000 or whatever LLLLs that are left and have crap letters.

From TRAFFIC NY, you could have equityfund.com, growthfund.com and gloabal fund.com (all three!) for the same total price as all the LLLLs that are left with those crappy letters. Whose going to make more money in the long run?

The natural thing is to say that LLLLs are still good for people who don't have as much money as my example, but relative value holds: A $200 name well researched and thought out will probably give a better return than 30 bad LLLLs.

 

[bricio]

many great opinions here and i think u all r correct about the LLLL's

i thought theyd br gone very fast and i posted it last month... now i think they can be all gone one day but theres a chance the crappy ones will never be regged :imho:

however, i think those good/great LLLL will have their value always increasing and those who own them will have a good ROI

 

[GAMEFINEST]

Alot of 4 letter domains are dropping too

 

[GreenGambler]

I still believe that they will all eventually be registered.

I have updated my list of available LLLL.coms containing US state abbreviations.
There are about 500 less than when I posted the original list 4 weeks ago.

Here is the List of available LLLL.coms containing US state abbreviations.

I'm not sure a big buy out will happen all at once but they will all be registered IMO.

 

[Archangel]

A LLLL.com buyout would help but how much? Just because every LLLL.com is taken doesn't mean EVERY ONE of them will be worth more. Surely many will expire if they don't turn into gold fast. If a person regs 100 LLLL.coms and they only gain about $2 each in value, would the owner then pay for renewals if there didn't seem to be any real promise in the domains? Sure, a lot will be regged but a lot will become avail soon after.

 

[floatingworld]

A LLLL.com buyout would help but how much? Just because every LLLL.com is taken doesn't mean EVERY ONE of them will be worth more. Surely many will expire if they don't turn into gold fast. If a person regs 100 LLLL.coms and they only gain about $2 each in value, would the owner then pay for renewals if there didn't seem to be any real promise in the domains? Sure, a lot will be regged but a lot will become avail soon after.

If the reg fee is $8 and the min resale value is $10 (+$2) this would represent a 25% return on investment thank you very much so yes they would all be renewed or reregistered. Since the default value of a random name is still <$10 we are not there yet but the trend is still up.

 

[Archangel]

If the reg fee is $8 and the min resale value is $10 (+$2) this would represent a 25% return on investment thank you very much so yes they would all be renewed or reregistered. Since the default value of a random name is still <$10 we are not there yet but the trend is still up.

I've heard this argument before. You are correct in my rhetorical question. But the thing is: Who's to say a random, meaningless LLLL.com WILL be worth $2 more in a year? My prediction is that all grammatically pronounceable LLLL's will raise in value quickly while all unpronounceables and LLLL's that require imagination to pronounce will take years to pick up value (a few exceptional ones are, well, the exception ie acronyms)

 

[italiandragon]

I think I`m going to take a few more screenshots to add to my personal album so when they are all gone , I`ll have something to read.

 

[jacal1]

Uh oh...now there's 14264.

14355 now one day later. Dragon, I sincerely hope you sell yours for 10x ROI, but I think your album may never be complete.

 

[floatingworld]

I've heard this argument before. You are correct in my rhetorical question. But the thing is: Who's to say a random, meaningless LLLL.com WILL be worth $2 more in a year? My prediction is that all grammatically pronounceable LLLL's will raise in value quickly while all unpronounceables and LLLL's that require imagination to pronounce will take years to pick up value (a few exceptional ones are, well, the exception ie acronyms)

you make a fair point but re investment there are no guarantees, there is always risk and judgment. The same argument can be used against registering any name in practice. It is a judgment call every time LLLL or even LLL for that matter, and hey re unpronounceables and LLLL's that require imagination to pronounce will take years to pick up value wasn't the same thing said about LLL? and look what has happened to the ugly ducklings!

 

[-REECE-]

you make a fair point but re investment there are no guarantees, there is always risk and judgment. The same argument can be used against registering any name in practice. It is a judgment call every time LLLL or even LLL for that matter, and hey re unpronounceables and LLLL's that require imagination to pronounce will take years to pick up value wasn't the same thing said about LLL? and look what has happened to the ugly ducklings!

Let's not forget that most of those ugly ducklings were registered 10 years ago. If you would have just taken the reg fees back then and put that money in energy (what I did) or gold, you would have wound up with about half the ROI of LLL.coms. Everything is relative. Compared to a savings account, buying a LLL.com in 2004 was a good decision. Compared to purchasing Google at it's IPO, LLL.coms haven't been such a good buy.

I see the same here... Now I won't be taking out my energy investments to dabble in LLLL.coms. Even if LLLL.coms go up immensely in value, so most likely will my energy fund -- and with less risk. As was said a bit earlier -- LLLL.coms make a good investment for those who can't afford to splurge on a LLL.com, LL.com, etc. I buy a few every now and then when I have spare cash lying around. But I don't think a buyout would be a wise move by anyone, other than perhaps someone holding hundreds of CVCV/VCVC and sees buying out the LLLL.coms as a potential way of magnifying the value of their portfolio (I agree that these will increase in value once all LLLL.coms are sold out).

 

[floatingworld]

those making the same arguments about not regging random LLL names before LLL were all regged ... were not wrong at that time ... events proved them wrong in the future... and the same argument cannot equally be used re LLLL otherwise we would all be silly for not filling our boots with what's left right now....the interesting thing is that forecasting is an inexact science, but not an irrelevant one...nobody is hoovering up the remains...but they are being chipped away...and many now have a nice portfolio accumulated since dyyo.com publicised the situation from a year or so ago...

 

[italiandragon]

14355 now one day later. Dragon, I sincerely hope you sell yours for 10x ROI, but I think your album may never be complete.

You obviously don`t know what a trend is.

I may not sell mine but you`re going to be the best picture of the month, after all the LLLL.com Unbelievers have disapperead.......and they disapperead once we crossed the 20K mark.

Now you come at 14K saying "uh oh" 300 names dropped.... :yell:

Even if 3,000 dropped I won`t care a penny about it.

I hope NP will store this thread for at least the next 3 years.....there will be many people regretting their blind status.

 

[jacal1]

Dragon, there is not 100% certainty to any of this, and an opposing opinion can be healthy. I don't think I should be called ignorant for disagreeing with you...

I will not regret anything if you make money...I will be happy for you. That said, my choice is to invest my domaining money differently, and in 3 years you and I can compare our ROI and maybe we can both learn something.

Frankly, in this business I've found that those who are making a good return already and have a sucessful business strategy are the ones who tend to tolerate "devil's advocates" and even put themselves in the shoes of those who have opposing views. See strings where Spade, Steve, NameTrader, Yofie and others are involved.

Shouldn;t you be happy that "idiots" like me will chase people away from regging these guaranteed money-makers

 

[Archangel]

and hey re unpronounceables and LLLL's that require imagination to pronounce will take years to pick up value wasn't the same thing said about LLL? and look what has happened to the ugly ducklings!

To further this argument: Consider LLL.com's. A sucky one could still nail around $3k while a 'better' one would nail $20,000+ Now, a poor LLLL might make it to +$1 in a year but a good LLLL might make it a lot further. Even if the base LLLL.com price becomes $3,000 in a few years, well, I think you can see where I'm going.

 

[-REECE-]

The biggest problem imo with LLLL.coms fetching gigantic sums of money is the sheer amount of them. If we take http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1184576789648 for fact (estimating a $4B domain name market by 2010), LLLL.coms would have to account for a minimum 10-15% share of that market even if base prices were say ~ $200 (considering the excessively higher value CVCV, VCVC, acronyms, enduser sales, etc would bring in).

Is 10-15% of every single dollar going into domaining going into LLLL.coms realistic? Will it be reflective of reality?

I would have to agree with some of the LLLL.com supporters that many of us would never have imagined unbrandable (re: all very bad letter) LLL.coms would be fetching $5k+ min wholesale as they are today... But alas, 'tis life...

Will bad letter LLLL.coms be better investments now or in the foreseeable future than LLL.coms? I don't think so. Will they continue to appreciate in value and prove to be better investments than leaving the money in a bank account, GIC, money market fund? I think that's perfectly plausible -- and that seems to be what many people are after; a way to make a decent return with very little initial investment.

I have 188 LLLL.coms myself. Not a huge amount, nor a very large portion of my domain purchases this year. But if I could someday use these to pay my ~6k renewal fees annually, that'd be fantastic.

I bought these to hedge some of the risks I've taken in other extensions. They're a safer investment than some of the speculative extensions I've splurged on and represent a way to potentially pay for those that turn out to be mistakes. Either way, I've enjoyed investing in LLLL.coms and the one thing I do know -- those of us who saw value in LLLL.coms many months and years ago will be well rewarded for the names we picked up which have turned into mini-gems

 

[Cronus]

Is 10-15% of every single dollar going into domaining going into LLLL.coms realistic? Will it be reflective of reality?

Well, Moniker has posted the T.R.A.F.F.I.C. NY results. That page includes the 111 live auction sales, plus the top 20 silent auction sales. Of those 131 domains, 15 (11.5%) are LLLL.Com. And of the total $11,625,895 in sales for those 131 domains, $1,479,240 (12.7%) are from LLLL.Com. If you only look at the .Com results, LLLL's took home 18.6% of the sales dollars. The top domain sale for this year on DNJournal is an LLLL.Com as well.

So I don't think LLLL.Com making up 10-15% of the domain market is an unreasonable or unlikely estimate.

Also, this graph speaks for itself. Unless something disrupts the trend, it looks clear that the available LLLL.com are going to run out, and soon . You can say that the remaining ones are somewhat crappy, but you could say the same about the bottom 10% too (a level we reached this summer), and we've already blown through 2/3 of those.

Registering LLLL is speculative, and I wouldn't advise anyone to mortgage their home or otherwise risk their finances to buy some. But I think they are an important part of any diverse domain portfolio. And I won't be surprised if, a few years from now, people kick themselves for not buying more back in the days when they could be picked up for reg fee or better ones for <$100 at drop auctions.