Question, do you sometimes find yourself questioning your investments and whether you’ve done the right thing or not spending what you have?
I’m at that stage now, I've spent well into 5 figures on domain names, family/friends thinking I'm mad, still chasing the big BIG names (been very close with a few too) but feels like I’m at a cross-roads at the minute whether I’ve done/doing the right thing or not.
The VR thread is not as active as it once was, there’s not as many reported sales lately (I know there was a great sale of Virtual+Girl reported today though) but not as many seem to be investing big anymore and all the action seems to be in this thread lately due to the rise of AR/MR/hybrid headsets and people spreading their investments about more.
Rick Schwartz also recently talked about how demand for domains is not how it once was, so I think to myself if virtual tech becomes that revolutionary tech we all hope, does something 'revolutionary' actually need the ‘old’ and with that will demand for domains actually be worse or more?
Anyone else feel like this? I'm sure we all have been there at some stage, there's only you guys I can discuss it with anyway because I don’t know anyone in person lol.
Opinions welcome
I'd like to tackle MHO on that one...
I'm not sure how long most here have been domaining but we pretty much knew 8-10 years ago that there are many sales that are private/NDA or just fly under the radar.
So you can not gauge the market as you once were able to do.
The number floated then was 30-40% were NDA/Private. I venture to 'GUESS' that that number is closer to 60% now. But How would I know ? I do the only thing I can which is put watches of key domains for any change in DNS records. I see them change hands without any sales reports on them.
There are a lot of reasons for the buyer and the seller to want to stay under the radar with this but I'm not going into that here. Use your imagination it will come to you.
Saturation level....
So the move has been to 'ONLINE' for the past 20+ years, well guess what, most are here now.
As far as Rick Schwartz noticeable reduction... I think he has been preoccupied with other things that as the general market has hit saturation levels for entering the online space he was not watching the cutting edge of new fields entering the market but there is also this...
Facebook...
How many biz models do you know that use but only Facebook for their consumer interface and lead-in for the consumer base. I have to say it is pretty attractive to know things about you likely customer that even they may not know about themselves. While much of the data used in that sort of stuff may be correct, many assumptions made from it are often terrible. Then add one piece of incorrect data to it and it may be totally non-relevant for your purposes as a advertiser. In any case, it allowed marketing departments to be lazy using the Facebook model. Many were hero's initially for getting the results when they started but I think they are starting to realize this for what it is. It's going to be hard for them to push the corporate "MORE,More,more" if they stop with just Facebook now.
I also want to point out just how much the 'bankers disaster' has played in slowing the development of new biz. It is hard to measure but the normal funding for slight to medium risk investments just about halted a lot of startups that have no record of success from getting funded. They were left in the Venture Capital World where they found much of the same. You have seen that need slightly filled just a bit by folks like Kickstarter etc.
Time will tell but all these things has had a impact on domains but I think it is all about saturation levels for most existing niches. It's why I quit playing GEO's and many other Niche's 8 years ago.
Does anyone here think they could make a living on GEO names right now. While there are plays to be made yet on the end-user level, you are not going to get much of a buy-in to make it worth while.
The broad supply is gone and the need is minimal.
All the easy plays are over. Yes the bulk of sales for existing models has more than peaked.
So it is the NEED side of the equation.
So you are left with playing NEW niche's or very limited and smart old ones.
But if you have money burning in your hand and think it should be in names...
Wait... the right investments will come around from those that can't afford to wait any more.
Just make sure you are being patient with the right names.
Sorry for the long one but I think it may give at least some insight to what your not looking at.
For what it's worth... For our niche...
I am not nervous about it. It is meeting my expectations for growth and timeline. But I might add that with hardware delays, it did push back the overall development and consumer acceptance by at least a year.
But these things happen and are expected. When you can say there are 1B VR users (not counting cardboard), everything will look different. If anyone remembers nearly 2 years ago when I spoke about standards that are needed in the industry... they still have not happened and probably will not until the 2nd/3rd gen of products. (when everyone's growth becomes dependent on them) This industry can't go 'BOOM' without them.