gTLD registrations have peaked. With a rocky road ahead, how long until the crash?

[pfj]

Worrying stats from nTLDstats.com - for the last two weeks, new gTLD registrations have been almost static, and are actually starting to decline. Where previously we saw 10k, 15k, 20k new registrations per day, for a sustained period now registrations have ground to a halt. In the two weeks to date we should have expected to see an increase of almost 350,000 domains, but in fact we've seen a LOSS of 7,644.

This is something that I've expected to see happen for months as the inflated figures of various registries begin to adjust - i.e. the low/no-cost "puff" registrations are dropped. .XYZ tried to combat this earlier in the year with their huge promotional event, but you can only do a bargain basement sale once or twice before people lose confidence.

I see this as a sign that the market has reached saturation. Registries have failed to communicate the real benefits of new TLDs while businesses and individuals are failing to adopt them. The number of active sites using new gTLDs seems to be tiny compared to the number of domains registered. This causes a huge problem for investors as the whole gTLD sector risks becoming contaminated.

Christa Taylor/dotTBA's analysis of the first six months of new gTLD performance on Circle ID brought to light some stark realities: a huge number of registries are operating at a loss, and if registrations continue to fall away, the writing is on the wall for many of these registries. I'm confident that we will see a number of registries cease operations in the next 6 to 12 months.

Total number of gTLD registrations:

July 12th: 22,951,202
July 24th: 22,943,558
Increase/decrease = -7,644 (0.03% decrease)

Even with only a 1.5% increase over the period (which is less than similar periods) we should have seen around 345,000 domains being added, bringing the total to around 23,295,470 so this is a startling difference.

Comparing similar periods from previous months:

June 12th: 22,071,306
June 24th: 22,531,238
Increase/decrease = +459,932 (2.28% increase)

May 12th: 17,513,791
May 24th: 18,016,647
Increase/decrease = +502,856 (2.87% increase)

April 12th: 16,726,767
April 24th: 17,030,054
Increase/decrease: +303,287 (1.81% increase)

Compare Christmas/New Year 2015/2016 (which might be expected to be a quiet period)

December 22nd: 10,987,060
January 3rd: 11,241,742
Increase/decrease = +254,682 (2.31% increase)

Same period last year:

July 12th 2015: 6,570,729
July 24th 2015: 6,676,608
Increase/decrease: +105,879 (1.61% increase)

 

[ZapNano]

I don't like big dogs; so I stay on the porch

 

[Raymond C]

As Wine.Club is up for $349,977 , I decided to put up my eWine.Club to €188,800...lol.....I am greedy now....why not!
I know its not going to sell soon anyway, so I will keep it for few years, renewal fees only $12+ per year....

 

[dordomai]

Everyone will change their opinion in 2 years.

they said the same thing 2 years ago. If the nGs are not successful after 3 years they won't dominate after 10 years either. 1 year left to show what they are capable of. So far not much has been seen.

At the moment they are struggling to add more registrations and that despite .top and .xyz and others giving domains away like crazy.

Nothing new really.

After all, .com means (commercial) where .co traditionally means (company). In many ways, .co makes more sense than .com for a company’s domain.

I’m not saying that .co is an immediate threat to .com. Please don’t blow out of proportion my comments. I’m just saying it is the biggest threat. I can’t think of any other extension which would have the same potential.

https://web.archive.org/web/2009062...e-aftermarket-finally-real-competition-to-com

 

[betthelot]

If my son looked at the TV and saw amazon.TOYS is he going to be more excited or less excited than amazon.com. do you have a child?

And the parents are going to think its spam and go to amazon.com. Thats why amazon will NEVER use it, confusion, loss of trust, loss of traffic and loss of sales.

 

[BrandChimp]

For example, why would you own greenenergy.com if you could own green.energy. The "com" isn't needed anymore.

You mean you need to call your company Green Dot Energy for $55,000 and $15,000 renewal a year??

Just go With GreenEnergy no need to add to word DOT to your brand

 

[Landov]

Me too...

Good luck!

 

[betthelot]

It depends. If for example he has 500 new gTLDs (with let's say an average purchase price of $40 USD/TLD) and managed to sell 22 of those for mid $X,XXX then it's impressive as he made a good profit. If for example he has 500 new gTLDs (with the same average purchase price of $40 USD/TLD) and managed to sell 22 of those for low-mid $XXX then it's not impressive as he's (still) in the red.

But only @kohsamui can answer how many new gTLD domains he has, how much money and time he spent acquiring those and the amount of money he made (or lost) with them so far.

I agree but 22 sales is at least a start and you often fail at the beginning and adjust your model to what works. He may have found a formula that works in the future and had to pay to get there and therefore good luck to him

 

[Fancy.domains]

You give a Paradise?

I give free beers to domainers visiting me, if they are nice.

 

[Bram C.]

Sorry, forgot that. Just added it.

Thanks for the info! So based on that data you spent around $8-9K and made around $20K (in one year). So basically a decent $11K-12K profit with the new gTLDs in one year. So I would say you're one of the few domainers who is making a nice profit with selling gTLDs. And I think this is impressive.

In my case, I have invested in some decent gTLDs as well (not 400 like you, around 20 or so) but I have a different experience with them compared to you. I also tried to find gTLDs with good keywords that make sense and without a premium price tag (my average purchase price is around $30-$40/TLD) but apart from 2 lowball offers ($XX range) I got zero interest in any of them in the last 2 years. I already dropped a few and kept 12 of them. Around 97% of my portfolio is .com though and that's where I'm making my money from and what's allowing me to do domaining full-time.

Going back to the profits you made this year with the new TLDs: An average profit of $11.5K per year comes down to less than $1K profit per month though. For me personally $1K profit a month wouldn't definitely not be enough to live (for someone doing this full-time).

 

[Fancy.domains]

Going back to the profits you made this year with the new TLDs: An average profit of $11.5K per year comes down to less than $1K profit per month though. For me personally $1K profit a month wouldn't definitely not be enough to live (for someone doing this full-time).

Yes, true.

Fortunately, one of my favorite domain investment is .COM. I also make some passive income from my travel websites and have a hard working wife.

 

[dordomai]

Going back to the profits you made this year with the new TLDs: An average profit of $11.5K per year comes down to less than $1K profit per month though. For me personally $1K profit a month wouldn't definitely not be enough to live (for someone doing this full-time).

Kohsamui is probably one of the most successful nGTLD domainers in the forum. This highlights how hard it is to make money with domains in particular nGTLD domains.

 

[dordomai]

i think the worst drops have still to happen. we are now approaching the time when we had the Chinese bubble starting last year. Expect massive drops in .com and all other extensions.

 

[garptrader]

Historically many of my domain sales went to investors generally buying in the $XXX range. New TLDs have stolen market share as investors have far more choices and oftentimes lower pricing than even cheap aftermarket domains. 20 million+ new TLD registrations are mostly investors and portfolio turn in new TLDs is no better than with .COM portfolios. However, the divergence of funds from domainers and developers who previously were buying aftermarket .COMs or .Nets, .TVs, etc who now are buying cheaper .XYZ, .TOP, .CLUB and other new TLDs will affect the renewal rates of extensions such as .COM, .NEt etc as well.

 

[jmcc]

solve all your worries and problems and buy com only.
you will then become fully and forever immune to such threads and news.

Heh. What do you think is going to happen with all those Chips over the next few months?

Regards...jmcc

 

[Mr Dobalina]

Ngtlds aren't going anywhere. .com will be diluted and considered just another extension in a few years. Don't spend your money on .com. Way overvalued imo.

 

[jmcc]

Individual trends are important absolutely - and possibly THE most worrying thing about this is that when you drill down and look at the numbers, .xyz has taken a big hit - shedding over 70k domains in just a few days. .club have also suffered a downturn, dropping around 7,000 in a few days.

And there is a lot more to come. The problem with freebies and discounted registrations is that the renewal rate for freebies, in particular, is approximately 5%. That means that 95% or so of those freebie registrations will not be renewed and will be dropped. The .xyz registry and other registries understand this and try to balance paid registrations with discounted regisrations. There is always a spike in deletions when these discounted registrations come up for renewal.

Regards...jmcc

 

[doubleU]

Ngtlds aren't going anywhere. .com will be diluted and considered just another extension in a few years. Don't spend your money on .com. Way overvalued imo.

Come on, lets keep this real !

With over 1,000 new gTLDs released and .com is still growing stronger !

 

[alcy]

Oh no, this is not a joke !

I read it many times and analyzed carefully.. it is with utmost certainty I am able to declare he utilized very advanced form of irony and humor. these things can be subtle sometimes. luckily I own a subtle mind.

 

[doubleU]

I read it many times and analyzed carefully.. it is with utmost certainty I am able to declare he utilized very advanced form of irony and humor. these things can be subtle sometimes. luckily I own a subtle mind.

I have analyzed this members posts and can verify that he/she is very much a lover of new gTLDs.

I own an analytic mind

 

[BigTree]

Conclusion of this report:
Domainers start being less optimistic and buy/renew less new TLDs.

 

[Joe N]

This is pretty compelling to me.

Registrations make money for registrars, not resellers.

Let's see a chart comparing ngTLD aftermarket sales to .com aftermarket sales. Is the former starting to take a bite out of the latter?

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

My very own "numerology"...
2xx nTLD-domains since 2014 without any sales... just 2 low offers for whole period.

 

[Mr Dobalina]

One person claiming reg fees are too high, one person claiming $1 regs are too low.

 

[JB Lions]

Yep, going to be brutal next year, I think .xyz went up something like 3 million regs during that penny promotion.

 

[Canadian]

Lately .cloud & .store have been the only new gTLDs for me worthwhile registering a few of.
Registrations will likely go up again when promising extensions like .shop .app .hotels etc. will be released.