gTLD registrations have peaked. With a rocky road ahead, how long until the crash?

[pfj]

Worrying stats from nTLDstats.com - for the last two weeks, new gTLD registrations have been almost static, and are actually starting to decline. Where previously we saw 10k, 15k, 20k new registrations per day, for a sustained period now registrations have ground to a halt. In the two weeks to date we should have expected to see an increase of almost 350,000 domains, but in fact we've seen a LOSS of 7,644.

This is something that I've expected to see happen for months as the inflated figures of various registries begin to adjust - i.e. the low/no-cost "puff" registrations are dropped. .XYZ tried to combat this earlier in the year with their huge promotional event, but you can only do a bargain basement sale once or twice before people lose confidence.

I see this as a sign that the market has reached saturation. Registries have failed to communicate the real benefits of new TLDs while businesses and individuals are failing to adopt them. The number of active sites using new gTLDs seems to be tiny compared to the number of domains registered. This causes a huge problem for investors as the whole gTLD sector risks becoming contaminated.

Christa Taylor/dotTBA's analysis of the first six months of new gTLD performance on Circle ID brought to light some stark realities: a huge number of registries are operating at a loss, and if registrations continue to fall away, the writing is on the wall for many of these registries. I'm confident that we will see a number of registries cease operations in the next 6 to 12 months.

Total number of gTLD registrations:

July 12th: 22,951,202
July 24th: 22,943,558
Increase/decrease = -7,644 (0.03% decrease)

Even with only a 1.5% increase over the period (which is less than similar periods) we should have seen around 345,000 domains being added, bringing the total to around 23,295,470 so this is a startling difference.

Comparing similar periods from previous months:

June 12th: 22,071,306
June 24th: 22,531,238
Increase/decrease = +459,932 (2.28% increase)

May 12th: 17,513,791
May 24th: 18,016,647
Increase/decrease = +502,856 (2.87% increase)

April 12th: 16,726,767
April 24th: 17,030,054
Increase/decrease: +303,287 (1.81% increase)

Compare Christmas/New Year 2015/2016 (which might be expected to be a quiet period)

December 22nd: 10,987,060
January 3rd: 11,241,742
Increase/decrease = +254,682 (2.31% increase)

Same period last year:

July 12th 2015: 6,570,729
July 24th 2015: 6,676,608
Increase/decrease: +105,879 (1.61% increase)

 

[Fancy.domains]

So you want to say that all of those are taken for standard regfee???

No, I wanted to say that they are good combinations. I did not check the reg fees.

However, I know that I am selling new gTLDs on a regular basis and I know that most of mine have standard reg fees. Right now, I have one in escrow for a low XXXX USD. It also has a standard renewal fee. I will post the name when this is finished.

 

[promo]

Afraid not. It's the other way around. You are late to the party. Enjoy the scraps.

 

[Fancy.domains]

Thats why Rick Schwartz or domain king put up high price $M on most of his names...he can afford to sit and wait for big fish......

Also, he have some of the best names in the world, that is the most important factor

 

[ambrose.xu]

u can check this --- https://namestat.org/s/newgtld-summary ,
after 7000+ dropped, it took off again.

 

[dordomai]

But this is just me. I am sure the older crowd does things differently and tries to guess sites typing in keywords.com

For example if I know the address to amazon is amazon.com but I want to go to their toys section I will go to Amazon.Toys.

It is also pretty good for advertising. More kids today are going to remember Amazon.Toys than amazon.com

Few are guessing urls today. I am talking about returning traffic and advertising. Something almost everyone will do.

Or do you type Namepros in Google every time you want to visit the site?

More kids today are going to remember Amazon.Toys than amazon.com

Based on what evidence? They type fb.com youtube.com all day long but they will remember amazon.toys better than amazon.com?

I believe a lot of things but this I don't believe. A kid today is more likely to recognize amazon.com as an URL compared to Amazon.Toys.

This is wishful thinking which has never worked as an investment strategy. If you want to invest in nGTLDs you need to make realistic assumptions.

They are not better and neither will they be more popular.They can be used for certain niche usages or as an alternative URL and this will be reflected in far lower sales prices and much less sales volume. They can not replace brand.com in the current state.

 

[TopShelf Domains]

Based on what evidence? They type fb.com youtube.com all day long but they will remember amazon.toys better than amazon.com?

If my son looked at the TV and saw amazon.TOYS is he going to be more excited or less excited than amazon.com. do you have a child?

 

[Fancy.domains]

The future looks bright. I sold a few more n gTLDs lately and bought seven LLLL .com names for the money. I will now sell these and invest in more new gTLDs.

 

[Fancy.domains]

Maybe you'd better invest your time in analyzing the stock market. That could make you some money. Analyzing Samui's income seems a complete waste of time to me.....

Yeah, maybe you guys are even more transparent and want to share your income, dollar by dollar?

 

[jmcc]

So when I see reports of five-figure new TLD sales I am skeptical.

When I see high sale prices for domains in a new gTLD with only a few hundred active sites, it is very hard not to be cynical having seen this kind of activity before.

Regards...jmcc

 

[dordomai]

I think what will happen next will not be pretty. I believe that keyword.com prices will be up in the next 1-2 years.

 

[alcy]

solve all your worries and problems and buy com only.
you will then become fully and forever immune to such threads and news.

 

[doubleU]

I am sure he was joking.

Oh no, this is not a joke !

 

[Mr Dobalina]

For example, why would you own greenenergy.com if you could own green.energy. The "com" isn't needed anymore.

 

[biggie]

For example, why would you own greenenergy.com if you could own green.energy. The "com" isn't needed anymore.

why?

because "greenenergy.com" was originally registered by some lucky person back in 1997 for reg fee

compared to "green.energy" which had premium yearly registration cost in $,$$$ range.


as an example "green.live" has a $3,000 premium yearly registration fee @ enom.

and that's just one reason.


imo....

 

[Mr Dobalina]

It is no secret disregarding some of the early 2014 releases the premiums have really started being tacked onto the quality keywords.

If domainers are speculating a large majority of them are going to lose money, as they cannot sustain holding, when there is a stagnant aftermarket just based on a lack of education, or most people don't know they is out there.

Regardless of those facts, the person holding the domain has to deal with the burden.

I mean if it takes 5 years to find an end user for a $250 renewal domain, and they get $1,500 after 5 years, they are essentially breaking even, considering transaction fees, and commissions.

This is true and like any business, understanding revenue and expenses is key. It IS possible to make money in the New G's.. in fact, from a margin standpoint I have been more profitable with the new g's than with .com. I am also transitioning some clients into new g's while keeping their .com. obviously nothing is touching .com for a few years but I just don't see a need for the extra letters in the url. We have gotten rid of 'www', now it is time to get rid of 'com.'

rib.tips is a lot cleaner than ribtips.com. (random example so no need to freak out like the green energy example)

 

[jmcc]

I've refused low $xxxx for that domain
Weed will be legalized in Canada next year !

Can't help but think of the Trailerpark Boys movie.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Raymond C]

gTLD is good for medium or long term investment....3-7 years

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Are you sure on 100% that after 3-7 years the financial result of your portfolio will be in significant plus or at least in plus???

 

[mad409]

The mistake is in taking all new gTLDs as single set. Some of these gTLDs have been in operation for less than a year and others for almost two years. The individual trends the gTLDs are the ones to consider.

Regards...jmcc

The end, well said.

 

[Rainmaker-NL]

With most gtlds they made hot english keywords premium. But for foreign languages its a different story. I got a lot of Dutch and some German names at regular prices, while the english version is premium. And I got some names where they probably forgot to make them premium.

 

[promo]

All the people making noise here, have 2015/2016 namepro registrations showing they just don't have the experience to really understand what they are truly talking about.

They weren't around when .mobi was launching, and sedo .mobi auction was on fire, and crashing their site, nor were they there in 2010 when .co was launching etc... we all want to register big terms, and make big returns, some get lucky, but for most it is a learning curve.

This is the crux of it. Back in the day I modded both .Mobi and .Co forums here at NP and it was maddening to see the fanboys close their eyes and just ignore wisdom attained by experience from peers that were trying to help them. It is amusing to experience the very same arguments again now for a third time. If you never learn from history you are doomed to repeat it.

Why argue with this Canadian fellow, he is clearly not bogged down by such mundane concepts as profits and the need for sales. He is a SPECULATOR and as such do not need to listen to reason or the like. One thing I know, you cant persuade a fanatic/fanboy with facts. Especially a vested fanatic.

 

[wwwweb]

More than double.....Wine.Club was sold for $140000.
The price is double buy it now $349977 at Sedo

https://sedo.com/search/details.php...31&language=us&origin=search&fromExactMatch=4

It has to sell for that price to be established as double, I can buy a reg fee name, and place $1M price tag on it, what you state makes little sense.

 

[Fancy.domains]

Yes, its expensive to play with gTLD.....

Not necessarily. I have about 500 new gTLDs and I would say that more than half of them absolutely have a potential to sell. The average renewal fee is about twenty dollars.

However, I spend a lot of time to search for good names with low renewals and if time is money, you could say that it's expensive.

 

[Wass]

Thats why Rick Schwartz or domain king put up high price $M on most of his names...he can afford to sit and wait for big fish......

It's also my strategy: I wait for big fish...

 

[mad409]

It's also my strategy: I wait for big fish...

I've said this before, if ya can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch!