gTLD registrations have peaked. With a rocky road ahead, how long until the crash?

[pfj]

Worrying stats from nTLDstats.com - for the last two weeks, new gTLD registrations have been almost static, and are actually starting to decline. Where previously we saw 10k, 15k, 20k new registrations per day, for a sustained period now registrations have ground to a halt. In the two weeks to date we should have expected to see an increase of almost 350,000 domains, but in fact we've seen a LOSS of 7,644.

This is something that I've expected to see happen for months as the inflated figures of various registries begin to adjust - i.e. the low/no-cost "puff" registrations are dropped. .XYZ tried to combat this earlier in the year with their huge promotional event, but you can only do a bargain basement sale once or twice before people lose confidence.

I see this as a sign that the market has reached saturation. Registries have failed to communicate the real benefits of new TLDs while businesses and individuals are failing to adopt them. The number of active sites using new gTLDs seems to be tiny compared to the number of domains registered. This causes a huge problem for investors as the whole gTLD sector risks becoming contaminated.

Christa Taylor/dotTBA's analysis of the first six months of new gTLD performance on Circle ID brought to light some stark realities: a huge number of registries are operating at a loss, and if registrations continue to fall away, the writing is on the wall for many of these registries. I'm confident that we will see a number of registries cease operations in the next 6 to 12 months.

Total number of gTLD registrations:

July 12th: 22,951,202
July 24th: 22,943,558
Increase/decrease = -7,644 (0.03% decrease)

Even with only a 1.5% increase over the period (which is less than similar periods) we should have seen around 345,000 domains being added, bringing the total to around 23,295,470 so this is a startling difference.

Comparing similar periods from previous months:

June 12th: 22,071,306
June 24th: 22,531,238
Increase/decrease = +459,932 (2.28% increase)

May 12th: 17,513,791
May 24th: 18,016,647
Increase/decrease = +502,856 (2.87% increase)

April 12th: 16,726,767
April 24th: 17,030,054
Increase/decrease: +303,287 (1.81% increase)

Compare Christmas/New Year 2015/2016 (which might be expected to be a quiet period)

December 22nd: 10,987,060
January 3rd: 11,241,742
Increase/decrease = +254,682 (2.31% increase)

Same period last year:

July 12th 2015: 6,570,729
July 24th 2015: 6,676,608
Increase/decrease: +105,879 (1.61% increase)

 

[Kate]

Nothing has changed since .mobi .asia .tel .xxx etc.
Same game, different players. Many hopeful, few winners.

New domainers don't realize that History keeps repeating itself, and even experienced domains are falling for the trap. New extensions = background noise.
Inflating the numbers does no good, only domainers are impressed by numbers. End users are hardly paying attention. Maybe they know better ?

 

[jmcc]

Worrying stats from nTLDstats.com - for the last two weeks, new gTLD registrations have been almost static, and are actually starting to decline. Where previously we saw 10k, 15k, 20k new registrations per day, for a sustained period now registrations have ground to a halt. In the two weeks to date we should have expected to see an increase of almost 350,000 domains, but in fact we've seen a LOSS of 7,644.

The mistake is in taking all new gTLDs as single set. Some of these gTLDs have been in operation for less than a year and others for almost two years. The individual trends the gTLDs are the ones to consider.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Fancy.domains]

Just sold my 22nd ngTLD in 2016 today.

People say it doesn't work, but...

 

[Fancy.domains]

I'm currently having a $XXXX one in Escrow. I have sold 21 new gTLDs in 2016, so far. Most in the XXX dollar range.

There is no secret, but you need to work hard and only take the very best ones. Sitting and buying 500 crappy .XYZ, .SCIENCE, .WORK, .TOP etc, just because they have some almost-free-promotion, will not help you out.

 

[Fancy.domains]

Maybe we should ask @kohsamui what is his secret.

Buy good ones without high renewals.

 

[Kate]

It is amusing to experience the very same arguments again now for a third time. If you never learn from history you are doomed to repeat it.

It is funny because the thread started well but since you posted this, it's now beginning to be littered with bad advice. I also think some domainers are not just blind but greedy.
They should stop thinking they are in the same league as Rick Schwartz. Very few domainers can be compared to Rick Schwartz. When you have domains like men.com candy.com etc yes you are the king. You can afford to hold out for the very best offer, because you get unsolicited offers all the time. When you own new extensions you are just another me-too sorry !

PS: indeed nothing has changed since the era of .tel .mobi etc. It's still the same game with different players. But it's more like a Running man game: the players of the day are so blind and hopeful they don't even bother to research the past and find out where the previous players are now...

I am not saying one should never buy a new extension for development purposes. What I'm saying is that they are not a good investment for pure play domaining purposes. Sure it is possible to make sales but the risk/reward ratio is not great. Demand is more sporadic too so it's more like playing lottery.

At present .com are still much easier to sell, thus less risky.

The fact is, new extensions are still not mainstream (in spite of what some domainers predicted) and they are not even gaining much traction vs the 'legacy' TLDs.
The future is of course open to discussion and hard to predict with 100% accuracy. But the present is what it is and has to be acknowledged.

 

[dordomai]

It's actually really easy to find great domain names in the gtld space.

You just need to pay 3-4 figures in annual renewals.

This reminds me of something. It's really easy to sell nGTLDs for $xxxx:

Just buy a premium nGTLD for $xx,xxxx from the registry.

 

[Fancy.domains]

The Lebron James of new TLDs makes barely $1000/month off an entire portfolio and yet in developed countries you cannot live off $1000/month - rent for an apartment is normally more than that. The vast majority of domain investors even in alternative TLDs like .Net would do best to do something other than domaining.

If this is towards me, thanks, or whatever.

No, I am not making barely $1000/month. It's just something you guys have come up with after I stated how many new gTLDs I've sold. Yesterday I sold two new GTLDs and a .SE. I have one new enquiry today.

You don't have to be worried about my economy. I'm doing fine. Just bought new watches for myself and my wife + new gym membership at the best gym on the island plus seven new LLLL.com names. Ok, as you understand, I am not rich, but I am making far more than a thousand bucks a month. You are not even allowed to have a work visa here with that income.

 

[doubleU]

Heh. What do you think is going to happen with all those Chips over the next few months?

 

[jmcc]

This is pretty compelling to me.

Without understanding the Mathematics behind it, it is just numerology. Many of those domains have no working websites and will drop without ever being used.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Kate]

I Love comments like that...
Meanwhile creative domainers that think outside the box and do their homework are able to register great gTLD domains at non-premium prices.

Finding domains is the easy part. Selling them is a different story.

 

[Rainmaker-NL]

You can see by his signature he is loaded down with them, monthly renewals eat his bottomline, all heavy hitters in gtlds have the same issues.

Only the registries are the ones laughing, along with ICANN, because that is who this business model is meant to compliment.

5 years down the road might be a different story, but you have to pay 5 years worth of renewals to find out.

Just looking at his signature I would be surpised if he couldnt sell these domains for a good profit after 5 years. Most of the names in his signature make perfect sense.
I would happilly pay $20 a year to renew buyweed.online. After 5 years someone will buy it from him for $500 and he has a 400% profit. And I think 500 is on the conservative side.

 

[Canadian]

Can't help but think of the Trailerpark Boys movie.

Legalization will put Ricky, Julian & Bubbles out of business...

 

[Fancy.domains]

Premiums from Registries???
And how many of such keywords? A few K in each major language... or not???

The real success for any TLD is when even average keyword is able to sell for 4-figure...

Good ones are when the keyword is a great match with the gTLD.

Here is s good example, but with a premium renewal: https://flippa.com/6577558-e-guide

Recently sold names that I consider as good or great: Entrepreneurs .club, Out .fit, Pro .media, Green .world, Realestate .property, TV .center.

I have also sold a few of these for XXXX USD per each: Plastic .cards, A .domains, Trend .media.

 

[wwwweb]

It takes a broader understanding of the marketplace to invest in GTLD's, first you have to understand the dominant .com space, and see what sells there to see what you can move in the GTLD space.

All the people making noise here, have 2015/2016 namepro registrations showing they just don't have the experience to really understand what they are truly talking about.

They weren't around when .mobi was launching, and sedo .mobi auction was on fire, and crashing their site, nor were they there in 2010 when .co was launching etc... we all want to register big terms, and make big returns, some get lucky, but for most it is a learning curve.

I tend to agree to say I got an XXXX offer could mean you got $1,000 offer from someone who might have been hot on the extension that week, but it most likely could not be there today. It does not define a market, you can ask the biggest, and the best domainers of some of the earlier offers they said no to, and they would take some of them back in a heart beat for .net etc... today

Regardless whatever happens with GTLD's will not be decided here, it will be the end users, and the next generation of internet users who will define what to value such names at. The 2016 releases are heavily blocked, and premium ticketed, so domainers are not even part of the equation.

Some of the newer releases don't even want domainers involved, and are writing conditions to block them.

Good luck to everyone regardless

 

[Wass]

gTLD is good for medium or long term investment....3-7 years

It's my strategy... I agree 100%

 

[Landov]

More than double.....Wine.Club was sold for $140000.
The price is double buy it now $349977 at Sedo

The good combos left . right are not so many and are in the hands of the domainers.

If you own a top new gTLD domain, don't be afraid to ask 6 figures for it!

If you own a premium new gTLD domain, don't be afraid to ask 5 figures for it!

Promote the domains with their price!

The large and the medium companies will battle for the name.

The small companies will register the not-so-good ones.

 

[brandnow]

I dumped most of my ngtlds already. except the few that I am developing.

 

[Casey L]

so many domainers are terrible at viewing domain names from the consumer's point of view. If you ask 10 random people to visit mysite.ntld, 9 will say "dot what the hell is that?"

 

[dordomai]

Then the neutral extensions don't look good (to me) gdn and xyzs and probably not to a lot of other people.

.xyz = Examine Your Zipper, .gdn = Grace Delete Now

 

[Canadian]

@Canadian Have you had a lot of ngTLD sales? Were they to resellers or end users? What methods have you been using?

ZERO Sales..!! I'm a gTLD speculator, I buy, hold and don't do any outbound marketing.
However I have had several half decent offers, which were flattering & exciting as I didn't expect to sell gTLDs for several years. (mostly for .online, but also for .cafe .Jewelry & .Tours)

You can see by his signature he is loaded down with them, monthly renewals eat his bottomline, all heavy hitters in gtlds have the same issues.

Don't You worry about MY bottomline

 

[Fancy.domains]

All these new gTLDs have caused inflation on the domain market. There are so many options and available names out there. So if you want to sell new gTLDs on the aftermarket, 'decent' or even 'good' are not enough, the names have to be 'very good' or 'great'.

A positive sign is that more and more end-users are using new gTLDs for their websites and projects, but the vast majority of these are hand-regged, not bought from domainers.

 

[Canadian]

Just looking at his signature I would be surpised if he couldnt sell these domains for a good profit after 5 years. Most of the names in his signature make perfect sense.
I would happilly pay $20 a year to renew buyweed.online. After 5 years someone will buy it from him for $500 and he has a 400% profit. And I think 500 is on the conservative side.

I've refused low $xxxx for that domain
Weed will be legalized in Canada next year !

 

[Fancy.domains]

XXXX - is wide range...
low, mid or high?

For the ones sold by me, low to mid. I have never sold a domain for high XXXX. Yet.