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Extensions you think would be extinct

Labeled as discuss in Domain Extensions, started by abstractdomainer, May 29, 2020

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  1. abstractdomainer

    abstractdomainer Upgraded Member Gold Account

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    There are certain new gTLD extensions that could be extinct (I believe) in a number of years.
    Mostly, looking at ntldstats, I see that there are 1185 extension out of which 726 have less than 1,000 registration.

    While most of these are a .company(name of the company) extension, some like .data and .hair have only 1 registration each.
    I believe, when it is time to renew the contract, these tlds will become extinct.

    Definitely, 50% of the bottom with <1000 registrations(generic and not a company tld), would be extinct.
    What all extensions do you think, won't survive in 10 years from now?
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2020
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  2. abstractdomainer

    abstractdomainer Upgraded Member Gold Account

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    Any views on this?
     
  3. mAd MaX

    mAd MaX Account Closed (Requested)

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  4. johnn

    johnn WeSellName.com VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    .dead

    Looks like you have a lot of free time.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2020
  5. jim h

    jim h Upgraded Member Gold Account

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    A lot of small registrars will disappear, which is certain, but the problem is that many of the suffix with a small number of registrations, their operators are large companies, which determines that even if few people use them, they will not disappear,and that will be a complex situation.
     
  6. Samer

    Samer Top Contributor VIP

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    horses.sucks
     
  7. jmcc

    jmcc Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Most of those gTLDs with a single entry are either brand gTLDs or pre-launch. The single entry is typically the NIC/Registry.

    The 10,000 registrations mark might be a better indicator for some of the open gTLDs. Many of the smaller gTLDs are struggling to gain registrations even six years after launch and their global focus has become a noose because they cannot promote their gTLDs effectively in all countries. They rely on the registrars to market the gTLDs but the registrars are increasingly concentrating on the TLDs that make them money and those are the local ccTLD and .COM (and to a lesser extent .NET and .ORG).

    The only option to most of these small gTLDs is to use discounting as a business model. That means cutting the registration fee to a bare minimum and hoping for a spike in one year wonder registrations. When they do that, the registries damage the credibility of the gTLD.

    What is more likely to happen with a failing gTLD with a few thousand registrations is that it will be bought up by a portfolio operator like Donuts or Afilias. The important thing to note about TLDs is that after the initial growth spurt, the registry makes more money from renewals than new registrations. Some registrations such as brand protection registrations automatically renew for as long as the business considers the gTLD important. One of the best examples is the .MOBI gTLD. To domainers, it is a wasteland. However, it still has over 300,000 registrations. Many of these are brand protection registrations. In order to work out which gTLDs are likely to fail it is necessary to think like a registry operator rather than a domainer. Look at the gTLDs again but using the guidelines below.

    1. Market: Is there a market for the gTLD and who is it targeting and why should someone register a domain name in the gTLD and not in the local ccTLD or .COM? What is the unique selling proposition of the gTLD? Is it a global market (generic but really a domain hack) or a niche market?

    2. Marketing: This has been the killer for many new gTLDs. Marketing is expensive. It is not simply a case of starting a new TLD and hoping that people will register domain names. Get the marketing wrong and the gTLD is dead.

    3. Usage: A new TLD needs people to start using it for websites and e-mail immediately. That way it begins to gain a foothold in markets. People see developed websites and more people register domain names and develop websites. Registries refer to this as the virtuous circle. Usage increases registrations. Registrations increase awareness. Awareness increases usage.

    4. Renewals: After the first few years, the renewal rates become extremely important. With discounted registrations, the renewal rate is below 5%. The .COM has a blended renewal rate of about 72% but only around 57% on first year renewals. If a registry gets the balance between renewals and new registrations wrong, it is basically throwing mud at a wall in a rainstorm.

    5. Pricing: A small gTLD with a high (3x or 4x .COM) registration fee is not the same as a large gTLD with heavy discounting. With some large new gTLDs, over 60% of domain names from this month last year have been deleted. (That's not the new registrations from this month last year. It is from all registered domain names in the zonefile.) A high registration fee domain name is less likely to drop because the registrant thinks it is worth more. The wholesale price and the retail price of domain names is also important as it can indicate how much money the registrars make. It also indicates the approximate revenue for the registry. But registries can do discounting deals with some large registrars to boost the registration volume.

    Regards...jmcc
     
  8. jmcc

    jmcc Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    You may have meant registries and some of them are finding it hard going but the registrars angle is an important one.

    One of the metrics that can detect problems with a gTLD is the number of active registrars versus the number of accredited registrars. A registrar can be ICANN accredited for a gTLD but have no registrations in that gTLD. The number of active registrars with registrations is often lower than the number of accredited registrars. When the number of active registrars in a gTLD begins to decline, it is not a good sign.

    Regards...jmcc
     

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