It all depends on the registrar as well. It's better to renew early than be sorry later after it expires and you have to pay the reactivation fee of $40+ which goes up to a couple hundred depending on the registrar's fees. I've saw where it's been close 60 days when it's finally dropped, but it's not worth waiting to renew a domain that's significant to you as it may end up biting you in the behind.