I rarely dedicate time to writing such a long post, but I feel I need to provide examples to explain why I always associate buying and selling domains with luck and gambling rather than with a business. Whenever I make this kind of comment, there are other forum members who disagree, and that's fine, but I don't think they truly understand my perspective.
Given that domains are unique assets, no two are alike, their value can reach very high prices on the secondary market, something that doesn't happen in any other market or with any other type of asset. It's possible to buy or register a domain for just a few dollars and resell it for thousands or even millions (if you're lucky) precisely because they are unique assets. This isn't possible in any other market, as no other product, service, or asset can multiply its value as much as domain names do.
Perhaps the art market is somewhat similar, but I'm unaware of any cases where a work of art has been bought for a few dollars and resold for millions. That said, we all agree that the sales rate for domains in a particular portfolio is around 1%, give or take a little. I'd even venture to say that if someone owns a portfolio of 100 domains, each being a single English dictionary word, and puts them up for sale at a price in line with the market value of these types of domains considered TOP or PREMIUM, which typically sell for six figures or millions, they would hardly sell more than 5% over the course of a year.
Here's where it gets interesting ... in domain trading, it's possible to survive and even make money even if you only sell 1% of your assets over the course of a year... I don't think any other market allows for this. Selling only 1% of anything else will inevitably lead to bankruptcy (but luckily, in domain trading, that's possible). As you can see, luck is a very present and necessary factor in this market.
As other members have stated (and I respect their opinion), buying and selling domains depends heavily on experience and staying constantly informed about market sales. However, considering the sales rate, which hovers around 1% of a portfolio, mathematically speaking, experience is only a very small part of the outcome, since the mathematical probabilities are very small, more against than for. Therefore (from my point of view), the main factor is luck. Here are two examples:
EXAMPLE 1: If you go to a casino to play roulette every day for a month, you might win once, twice, or three times, but most of the time you'll lose because the mathematical odds are stacked against you and in favor of the casino. Each day you go, you'll learn a little more, you'll gain "experience", you'll learn patterns, but even with all that, the probability of winning is very small. You might manage to win, but then the number one factor will be luck (you see how similar that is to buying and selling domains).
EXAMPLE 2: If you start any kind of business, whether it's selling products, services, or anything else, there are thousands of sources where you can learn, educate yourself, and obtain information, since businesses are replicable. If you have the right information, the necessary capital, and execute according to a plan proven by others who have done exactly the same thing as you, the chances of success skyrocket. There will always be the possibility of the business failing, but it will be minimal (you see how this has nothing to do with buying and selling domains, since the luck factor plays a very insignificant role here).
We can see how in DOMAINING, selling 1% is considered a success, while in any other business, closing only 1% of sales would be a real failure. That's why DOMAINING isn't like a business, but rather like a gamble.
So, considering the two examples, and from a mathematical perspective where to have the odds in your favor you need at least 51% + probability and knowing that the selling rate of a portfolio is approximately 1%, it follows that the outcome in Domaining is 99% determined by LUCK. Hence the viewpoint I hold and maintain, thank you.
