87% of the .com sales disappear at that price point, so
the probability of sale of a .com in one year over that level goes from 0.0048 to 0.00062, or about one chance in 1610. This of course does not take into account how many sales are missing from NameBio. Factor of 5? Would become1 chance in about 325 of a sale at that level in one year. If you take only past year, all .live disappear at that level. If you take average of past 3 years, numbers tiny, but probability would go down from 0.0021 to 0.000061 or about 1 in 16000. If you assume again a factor of 5 for sales not listed on NameBio (ratio may or may not be same as for .com), one gets about one chance in 3200 of a .live sale. While these numbers are too small to mean much, overall if you look at ngTLDs it is something like a factor of 3 to 5 less than .com for probabilities of sale. The average prices, over all new gTLD, are higher, which partly, but not completely, make up for the difference, even when registry sales are corrected for.
The one line summary: your chance of a $1000 sale is higher in .com, but very low in both. The median .com sale these days, at least in NameBio is only slightly above $225. It was higher 5 and 10 years ago, it seems.
The profitability of new gTLDs depend either on improvement of market in coming years or finding a rare superb match across the dot that got ignored as a premium and you can have good renewal rates.
Overall in 2017 there were 1006 NameBio recorded new gTLD sales for $5.2 million
In 2018 it was 1464 for $5.7 million.
Registry sales account for about 25% by number but about 50% by dollar volume in that.
So far in 2019 the dollar volume seems down, but also the percentage registry also down significantly. Mainly .top is way less active so far this year.
Bob
(also in reply to
@JB Lions re $100 too low. I had originally used it as that is the NameBio level of public reporting)