NameSilo

After latest large new gTLD domain sale, I have renewed my whole .live portfolio until 2025....

Labeled as discuss in gTLD Discussion started by lolwarrior, May 13, 2019.

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  1. MapleDots

    MapleDots Domain Properties 2010 - 2019 VIP

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    In regards to renewing years ahead I have to agree with @xynames and respectfully disagree with @Bob Hawkes.

    The largest amount I ever paid for a domain was when I ran a very large corporation. We were specifically on the hunt for a domain and this was as I was just getting my feet wet as a domainer.

    Domainers (including some in this topic) often say it is advantageous to register for up to five years ahead.

    So as the person making decisions for a large corporation, let me give you my point of view...

    - Whenever I saw a domain registered ahead for a number of years I skipped over it thinking the domain owner was serious in keeping it and wanted to make sure it never expired. I figured I had no chance there and moved on to an easier target.

    - Whenever I came across a short registered domain (ie 1 months) I did the exact opposite, I chose not to contact the domain owner and thought.... maybe I can ride out because he may not renew.

    So as the person making the buying decision I can tell you that the sweet spot was under one year. I ended up contacting those domain owners before I finally made the decision of which one to purchase. The purchase was considered as large given the year it occurred and was definitely the most I ever spent on a domain. Good thing about that was that is was the corporations money and not my own.

    So to all the members thinking that having a long expiry date will add value to their domain, I say you can also lose a sale because of it. So not only do you have extra expenses as per what is mentioned in @xynames post but you actually run the risk of never getting a sale in the first place.

    Something to think about....
     
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  2. MapleDots

    MapleDots Domain Properties 2010 - 2019 VIP

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    Insurance is a very profitable business, they prey on people's fears.
    When an insurance company told me that acts of god are not insurable I asked them if I was insured against flood and they said only for sewer backup not acts of god. Lightening? Nope... Hurricane?... Nope!!!

    Since when did insurance companies become religious?

    I eventually figured out that I only have insurance from inside fire (not brush fire) and for theft if someone breaks in. Well my houses are worth in the millions and I cancelled insurance on all of them a number of years back. I was paying a small fortune and I have put this money into a self insurance fund. I did this because I can afford to and the loss of a house is not the end of the world to me, but I am very comfortable with the decision that given my history I have never had a claim and chances are the insurance savings will buy me a nice porsche in a few years.

    Insurance on a domain against price increases?
    I guess you can go that direction if you want, I prefer to think I will move or drop my domain by then and drive away with my porsche. :xf.laugh:
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  3. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    Re first: Your point of view is interesting and has logic @MapleDots but I think it is important to keep in mind that you are a business owner who also knows domains very well. I don't think you are typical of the majority of end users, who I would guess don't even know what Whois is in many cases, or even if they do would not make the assumption you suggest.

    Re the second post: I don't view it as insurance but rather part of logical business planning. Most domain names do not sell in one year. I have a name I feel has value and will eventually sell. Right now I can renew it at very favourable rates. I think it makes sense to do that. But only selectively for good names where you also can get a good renewal rate.

    So I disagree with both of your points!

    But have a nice Canadian day!

    Bob
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  4. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    90-95% of endusers are not aware about WHOIS and don't use it...
    Those dates have no any impact on sales.

    p.s. Even when WHOIS was completely disclosed (prior GDPR) I very rarely was contacted via WHOIS email.
    And few times those inquiries were not even from endusers but from lawyers.
     
  5. MapleDots

    MapleDots Domain Properties 2010 - 2019 VIP

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    The 95 percent are not relevant. The top 5 percent that spend the big money on domains do check who's, expiry etc. It's prudent to do research before a big purchase.
     
  6. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    It depends on motivation...
    If motivation is low - then enduser will find 101 reasons to buy another domain...
     
  7. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    And if it is EMD (defensive purchase) - you will be contacted 100% regardless of what is displayed in WHOIS.
     
  8. GenericDomainz

    GenericDomainz Established Member

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    .Live renewal cost at most Registrars is not too high, so if your domains are good enough is good decision to renew them...)
     
  9. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    Just out of interest I looked at expiry dates on top 10 sales in last year by extension type. A tiny set of data probably not meaning much but:
    • .com 4.0 yr
    • .org 1.4 yr
    • ngTLD 7.3 yr
    Two things particularly interesting - majority of the ngTLD are maxed out at the 10 yr. 7 out of 10 of the org have expiry within 2019 or 2020. Of course the amounts paid for the .com were more, so I am not surprised that the new owners might extend the registration period, but surprisingly only one did so to the 10 yr max. There may also be cultural differences - I think many of the ngTLD that are maxed out are in Chinese hands.

    I don't dispute, at all, that major sales are following extensive research, @MapleDots, but the vast majority of domain sales happen in the $200 to $2000 window (well vast vast majority under $75 but those are all between domainers). I do think that the organization or small business owner buying a domain for $500 does pay some attention to whether it comes with registration prepaid for 3 months or 5 years, particularly where they are probably not astute to finding the best registration renewal places and just look at what one or two major registrars are charging.

    I think the renewal discussion is one place where the expertise of legacy domain investment is, by itself, not sufficient to inform what new gTLD domain investors should do. In .com the renewal rate is fairly stable year to year and is fairly consistent across many registrars. With many new extensions (not all) there is sufficient variability across registrars, and in some cases also significant changes over time. The argument is stronger to lock in a good rate. I actually personally regret not locking in some great rates of the past in new gTLDs (more than I did).

    I think you have commented elsewhere that you only ever registered one new gTLD, a mis-spell domain hack using .app as part of a different word to match one of your domains in another extension. For several reasons, I would not renew that in advance. It was a match to another, so only makes sense if you renew both in advance. It is a Google extension and it seems (no one is sure of course) Google plan on TLDs is to keep registration/renewal pretty constant so less argument to renew in advance. App is new, and the resell market is still being determined.

    But those arguments don''t all apply to, for example, if you were offered a good multi-year renewal on say .online domains. So let me stress again, I am not urging people to renew all new gTLDs in advance! Not at all! Personally I have I think about 15% or slightly less renewed for more than 1 year in future. I personally own zero .live, but I can see at currently available rates renewal makes sense on strong keywords.

    Bob
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  10. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Strong keywords or good 3L in .live are usually for $2xx yearly...
    And many are available...
     
  11. GenericDomainz

    GenericDomainz Established Member

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    Looks like serious))
     
  12. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    But surely most people wondering if a domain name is available would simply type it in a browser and be taken to the lander and see it is for sale, instead of first look at WhoIs and play mind games from expiration date what the owner is maybe thinking and if she might want to sell it? This seems to me like complex domainer thinking (possibly), not end user thinking. Sorry I am buying your argument 0%. @MapleDots.
    Bob
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  13. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Yes, among Chinese registrants such renewals up to 10 years are popular... from my daily WHOIS checks...
    Because Donuts and other registries offer the absolutely another renew/transfer prices for Chinese market... a few times lower than outside China.
    Open this pricelist: https://www.west.xyz/en/domain/price.asp
    And check Renewal/Transfer column... and compare with US registrars...
    For example, .live $5.41 (~4 times cheaper)... and that's why 5-10 years.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  14. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    First of all the response that you quote was not to @xynames post but to your post arguing that a business owner looking for a domain name would go to Whois, see if the expiry was more than a year or less than a month, if it was not in that interval move on assuming name not actively for sale. I don't buy your reasoning at all. Surely you just enter the name in browser and see what lander says?

    I had read @xynames post carefully, but I did reread it again now just to be sure :xf.wink: I do value his opinion as a pro and frequent contributor and for his long term and legal/business experience as I understand it. But that does not mean I accept everything anyone says! It's just how I am! But let me respond now to everything in the post you asked me to reread.
    Agree completely (if you leave too late life might intervene or in any case fast transfer will cease and it is a slight pain reactivating).
    My emphasis added as the OP did not say that. He said that he renewed to 2025 his .live domains, which he later clarified to mean his adult .live domains at least. He never said all of the domains in his portfolio. So I agree that would not be smart, but that is not what the post said. So kind of agree with sentiment but it was based on an incorrect premise.
    I divided these to respond, but of course they were intended as one statement so I overlapped. I agree that you should NOT renew names that you think will probably never sell, and have said that even in this thread. But the typical domain name is not just will sell // will never sell. Sell through rates vary, for all domains for sale it is probably of order of 1% for .com (and lower for new gTLDs in general). So probability clearly says that any particular domain name is unlikely to sell in the next year. Just probabilistically the odds are you will need to renew it. So the question is do it now or do it few months before. There I think it is very much like the case fixed vs variable mortgage rates. I would not renew in advance if I thought rates were likely to be lower at some point in future. But let's look at .live since that is what the OP stated. It is a Donuts name, most of which, after being fixed for a couple of years on rates, are going up 6 to 9% (I don't off hand know the exact value for .live, since I own 0 personally did not research it). Right now at West I can add 5 year of .live renewal for $30.07, or $6.01 per year. I don't know of any lower renewal rate in past (well recent past). So how is it 'asinine' to lock into that rate for 5 years, since for a typical domain name the odds are that any particular domain name sells in 5 years is low (depending on your throughput ratio from less than 5% to maybe 20%).
    I agree that this is a defendable viewpoint as we have discussed before. I personally find it does matter, but accept I might be wrong. But my key point is the one above: based on probability most names don't sell in a year. If you have done an analysis and are convinced of worth of domain name, the probabilistic argument is, in my opinion, in favour of locking in good renewal rates when they are available.

    I think the real question is are .live domains worth holding. As I have said, personally I own none. They have sold for good amounts in past, but I believe the 7 sales over $15,000 are all registry. All of sales in last year are small (but most of the names are pretty unimpressive too). The registration growth is steady and it is doing better than most ngTLDs in actual end use (although all tiny compared to .com).

    Sorry to write so much, but wanted to show I had read that post carefully, and did so again :xf.wink:, and to respond to it in detail since @MapleDots asked. I value all opinions (OK almost all) expressed here, but I never simply accept based on who that person is.

    Anyway this is my thinking. My probability stats arguments convince me that if you have a better rate now than you are likely to get in future, why not renew a few years, but only if the word is worthwhile. No one needs to accept anything I say! :xf.grin:

    Bob

    PS BTW I really like that the latter part of this thread is on the topic of renew or not. Just because I don't reach same conclusion, @MapleDots and @xynames as you do on this topic, huge respect for the success you both have in the business, your active engaged nature on NPs, and the fact that you have based your arguments here on principles and not on personalities. Have a nice day! :xf.smile: GoRaptors!
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  15. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Try to live from domaining only... and you will newer renew 5 years ahead... 99.99%
     
  16. xynames

    xynames XYNames.com PRO VIP

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    Sales. All this means definitively, which is irrelevant and meaningless to whatever you are trying to say, is that those who paid a gang of money to buy a domain went ahead and extended out the expiration date on their newly acquired investment.
    Why you even mentioned irrelevant data and then went on for dozens of lines to comment on it makes little sense.

    ?

    Do you have data on the length of time in advance that domains that were sold were paid up before being sold? If not then your argument as far as claiming that "domains that sell for a lot are prepaid years out" is simply conjecture. At best you shouldn't befuddle the issue with irrelevant data, no?

    The rest of your argument, that "you don't really sell much more than 1% a year of your portfolio" is also wrong right out the gate. It's actually it's more like 3% for a good domain portfolio, meaning that if you have 1500 good domains you should be selling something like 4 each month. Those are the average percentages I am experiencing.

    Your argument, in essence, boils down to: Don't expect to sell much, so go ahead and pay your domain regs years out in advance. So, essentially, bet against yourself. Which as I mentioned, simply puts money out of your pocket into the pockets of your buyers. No domain I have ever sold has sold for a penny more or less because the expiration date is soon, or far away. So forget about that argument, trying to say that someone buying a domain gives you any more money because it is paid out further in time, it's contradicted by real world experience, and completely unproven.

    Let's indulge ourselves with your argument. Not with the conjecture unproven parts but with what mathematics may be able to analyze. Let's look at my portfolio. We're talking dot com only since that is pretty much all I have. My renewal rate is already wholesale and low as it will get. My rate is based on that I'll have over a thousand domains for many years, even if I acquire none and just hold the 1500 and sell 3% per year. I'm not going to get a penny lower renewal rate for renewing ten years, versus one. In fact, it might even be detrimental to me in the long run to pay for all of them at once because while I'll look like a big spender this year, each subsequent year I'll have to explain to my account rep why I shouldn't be removed from wholesale pricing because I have been spending little or nothing lately. I'll have to keep bringing up to my rep the fact that I spent big in a certain past year. This argument will get weaker and weaker as time goes on, and I'll be in jeopardy of losing my wholesale buying status for future acquisitions.

    But...let's say that I held domains other than dot coms. Let's say I held 1500 non dot coms. Some extension where I might get a discount if I prepay ten years.
    So the assumption is:
    1. I hold many domains,1500, and have a wholesale rate because I hold many domains and spend a lot each year on registration renewals.
    2. I hold domains in an extension where there will be some discount for paying the renewals out many years, versus just one.
    3. I will not lose my status with my registrar for a wholesale rate by spending most of my money in renewals today, and comparatively very little for the next ten years. (That's a big IF but I'll give it to you for the sake of argument.)
    4. My sale rate is 3%.
    Okay, well you're the one who started this, please recalculate the value of paying ten years in advance and whatever discount you would get, against selling 3% or 45 domains per year. It's not an easy calculation, you need Calculus to do it quickly. Remember that the money lost for the first 45 domains sold in Year 1 is 9 years prepay, whereas the money lost for the second 45 domains sold in Year 2 is 8 years prepay, and so on. Let me know the results. If you aren't calculating it right, then don't post at all.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  17. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    Turns out that Dofo allow us to do this better than used to be the case. They search all the common marketplaces. There are today 22,810,076 for sale. Clearly miss private, etc. Occasionally they might double count an entry if spelling error in listing, etc. Probably some listed not truly for sale, but suspect right overall.

    NameBio is best we have for sold. Last year 90,100 sold (across all extensions).

    That gives apparent throughput rate of 0.00395 (for universe of domains for sale, not for any particular portfolio).

    Of course NameBio misses private, Undeveloped, Afternic (mainly) although also includes a large number that are actually domainer purchases.

    I don't doubt that an individual high profile portfolio may have 10x the statistical average (your 3%).

    I still hold that 1% is not an unreasonable rate, being about 2.5x the apparent rate.

    I would point out that this whole thread is about renewing new gTLDs in advance. I think all involved in this discussion agree that the throughput rate is lower currently. Many would claim my 1% ratio is much too optimistic in fact. I am not sure if you read this or got put off by the first numbers... anyway would stress I did say the argument for renewing in advance is much stronger for new gTLDs.
    I was never saying YOU should renew your COM HIGH QUALITY portfolio 10 years in advance. I WAS saying renewing portions of a portfolio, especially one with new gTLDs in advance, makes sense when the renewal rate is favourable (especially in a fall price increase in renewals has been announced).

    Have a nice day.

    Bob

    ps BTW It is not just me who use a 1% figure as throughput. If I am remembering the model presented by GD at NamesCon I believe that was the rate in their model for an investor who bought domains for modest prices at auction for high $$ and then resold them for $$$$ prices.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  18. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    I am nervous after that warning :xf.sick: but here is my best effort, but without careful checking. I think I followed what you wanted. Here are assumptions:
    • Start with 1500 in portfolio (I assumed no additions). That leaves about 1106 unsold domains at end of period.
    • Sell at a 3% throughput (I did not round to integers, so did e.g. based on 43.4 sold)
    • I assumed wholesale rates for renewal, currently $7.85 +$0.18. So that is consistent with your rule 3.
    • I assumed that the names sold in year 1 were subtracted before renewals came up.
    • I assumed that the wholesale cost increases at the 6% per year approved by US administration for 4 years and continued to increase at that same per year rate.
    • I assumed no change in the $0.18 ICANN fee over the period (probably unrealistic)
    In one model one pays the 10 years up front at current rates and total is $116,836.50.

    In the other one pays the rate for that year on the number of domains that remain. Then one adds up the values over the different years. That adds to $132,834.94 in renewal fees.

    So this model you pay roughly $16,000 more by waiting and renewing year by year. However, note that the cost of money has not been applied and depending on the interest rate used that could easily switch to make it more profitable to pay by year one.I may later extend the model to assume an effective interest rate of 2 to 4% cost on money.

    [​IMG]

    Probably the 6% pa wholesale is too high, we all hope, although clearly Verisign ideally wanted no cap and a more dramatic price increase is possible. Also, some increase on ICANN fees for sure should be included.

    But let me repeat again, while I did this as per your request the thread is about new gTLD renewal in advance. I may do a 5 year .live model, to be something more related to the thread, but did not want to delay getting this one to you.

    My apologies in advance if I made any errors or in any way misinterpreted what you wanted. I honestly tried to model exactly what you asked. .

    It was an interesting exercise to do that I might apply with some other assumptions in future. Thanks for the idea (and congrats on the 3% sell through rate :xf.smile:).

    Take care,

    Bob

    Edit: note that in both ways it is 10 years of renewals, hence the terminology after x years. So sort of initial registration + 10 renewals covering almost 11 year period.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  19. xynames

    xynames XYNames.com PRO VIP

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    Couple questions and a comment. So, you're certain that you deducted the lost value of the domains sold against prepaid years, for each year, correct? For example assuming 45 sold in Year 1, times say $8. flat times 9 years = $3240. lost in Year 1. Year 2 would be 44 sold (1500 - 45 x 3% = 43.65 rounded up to 44), times $8. x 8 years = $2816. lost, Year 3 would be 42 sold (1500 - 45 - 44 x 3% = 42.33 rounded down to 42), times $8. x 7 years = $2352 lost etc. Did you deduct the loss?

    Let me see what you're saying here...are you saying that you expect domain renewal prices to increase by 6% a year? I don't agree with that, domain renewals have historically DECREASED in price. I mean look at twenty years ago people were paying average $20. per year for a domain now most anyone may find renewals around $10.

    But - let's leave that aside for now. I would have expected you to figure that someone would get a discount for renewing all of his domains at once today. What is that figure? 6%? If so, then I suppose you could leave your numbers SOMEWHAT alone as long as you did deduct for the loss per year for the domains that sell with years left on their renewals. (But - you can't keep adding a cost of 6% per year - you must make a FLAT determination of what you save by prepaying ten years, today.)

    Because the way I believe makes sense, would be to calculate a DISCOUNT for what you would pay if you pay ten years in advance, and then leave the price flat if you pay per year. INcreasing the price for the future doesn't really follow in line with the reality of that domain renewal prices have decreased, not increased over the years. But for purposes of this exercise, we could just assume that it remains flat over the years (when in reality, I think it actually DEcreases.)

    So then...Just a quick and dirty calculation, if it costs $120K to pay for ten years of 1500 domain renewals @ $8. per year, and by paying immediately you save 6%, that would save you $7200. But you're LOSING remember $3240. in Year 1, $2816. in Year 2, $2352. in Year 3 assuming a 3% sell through rate etc. etc. If you continue to carry out the loss per year, Year 4 - Year 10, you are going to lose far more than the $7200. gained.

    So again;
    1. Whether you will save by prepaying ten years, given a sale rate of 3% and deducting for the dead loss of the domains that sell with years left prepaid on their renewals, DEPENDS on what % DISCOUNT you get TODAY for the prepayment.
    2. I don't think you may assume that domain renewals will go UP over the future years. History indicates that they will go down, but for purposes of this exercise, let's assume they stay flat.
    3. It is definitely incorrect to BOTH deduct the discount for prepayment at the beginning, AND assume a rise in costs for renewals in the future. That is taking it from both ends. (I don't think you did this, but just saying.)
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  20. MapleDots

    MapleDots Domain Properties 2010 - 2019 VIP

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    Not to mention the fact that registrars have sales.

    When a new domainer locks in at lets say 30 dollars for 5 years the total is $150. To a new domainer that sounds like a bargain just in case the extension goes up to $50 per year.

    Traditionally we also have black friday sales and things like that and even the mighty donuts might want to pad their registrations a bit by offering a half price sale. Now the locked in domainer has no place to go unless they want to increase their 5 year term to ten years.

    Having as many domains as I do I have yet to renew over a year unless I move to a different registrar and it adds a year to the registration.

    So owning over 100 new TLD's and renewing them all at 5 years is a gamble. You are basically saying you will still have the domains in 5 years and even in the best case scenario if you sold every one of them you just gave away 5 years registration to everyone of your customers., a complete loss off your bottom line.

    So I am in agreement with xynames, I don't think I could have said it as well as he has done in this topic.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  21. stub

    stub Top Member PRO VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    [QUOTE="It would be interesting to see how many pros renew their domains many years ahead.[/QUOTE]

    I don't. Mostly it's a cash-flow issue whilst I'm still investing and growing. Even my lifeblood domains are only renewed year-on-year. That might change in the future.
     
  22. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP

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    Yes

    Yes, the registrars have over the past decade taken a smaller and smaller piece of pie (panel on this at NamesCon). But this model is already at them taking 0. Just the cost that Verisign charge them. The cap imposed by Obama admin kept wholesale costs constant during this period, but now the 6% pa has been approved. It won't necessarily be fully implemented, or renewed by a new admin. No one knows. Alternatively no caps in future possible.

    There is no room because the registrar is already taking nothing at all, 0, by the wholesale model. I used the price the registrar pays Verisign.

    4 years in a row of that is exactly what Verisign got the US government to agree to. Who knows after that.

    Except as transfers they rarely apply to renewal. It is off course a possibility.

    Exactly. Most of us are the same :xf.wink: so even if we in theory like idea of renewing in advance there are limits.

    Bob
     
  23. Grego85

    Grego85 Quality.Domains VIP

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    If you search Namebio for ALL domain names ending with "live" that have sold for over 1k, you will see the results are much less than impressive. So why invest in .live at all?

    Using Namebio this way, you can easily tell which extensions should perform the best for aftermarket sales... (assuming end users ever see the value in ngtld names)

    These are the ones I deem as good enough to invest in:

    .Solutions
    .Inc
    .Tech
    .Shop
    .Care
    .Group
    .Direct
    .Services
    .Center
    .Club
    .Store
    .Network
    .World
    .Homes
    .Travel
    .Express
    .Systems
    .Plus
    .Pro
    .Technology
    .Market
    .Auto
    .Team
    .Exchange

    * This doesn't mean I wouldn't invest in a domain with a different extension, but these are the best ones to focus on IMO.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  24. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I renew many of my best domains several years ahead of time. I think it is good to have that done in case sales slow down, and it can also be beneficial when it comes to expenses on taxes.

    Brad
     
  25. xynames

    xynames XYNames.com PRO VIP

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    Brad, on your website you list about 25 domains as "premium" - do you mean that you pay out several years the renewal fees on many of these 25 domains, which would mean a statistically insignificant number compared to all the domains you hold, or do you pay out "many" of the hundreds (or thousands) of domains you have?

    Unless you're talking about paying out several years many hundreds or thousands of domains, it's not relevant for purposes of calculating whether it is a good idea or not.

    Anyway, a lot of extraneous discussion on this topic to the point where the issue got obfuscated, but I stick with
    plain and simple.
     

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