Why has domain not dropped? 2 months in Redemption

[MostlyHarmless]

I have been waiting for a domain to drop. It expired early in October. The redemption period should have been 30-45 days.

The only people I trust (even a bit) to investigate the status of a domain without stealing it are internic.org. Internic shows that the domain is still in redemption.

I got frustrated waiting and went direct to the registrar to do a whois and saw they show the domain in pending delete. That was a few days ago. So it could still drop.

I used snapnames (thieving bastards I know!) to place a back order. As they are being investigated for fraud already I thought they might be trying to stay clean for the moment.

Using the various name drop services I searched for domains in redemption, deleting, etc. I did this carefully by looking for letters that are included in the domain I want and specifying a minimum/maximum number of letters that bracket my choice (so I get hundreds of candidates). The name I want does not show up.

So what is happening?

Before someone tells me, let me say I know that registrars and name drop companies are thieves and can't be trusted.

 

[Kate]

Upon expiry, the domain will most likely be autorenewed by the registrar in case the owner still wants to renew it. The registrar has 45 days to cancel the autorenew, and get a refund from the registry... then the domain enters redemption status, then pending delete.
So it can take 80 days between the actual expiry date and the moment the domain is released. You need to begin counting when the name enters redemption status, because the post-expiration 'grace period' can vary from 0 to 45 days depending on the registrar.