It could happen, not soon, but in 10+ years.. I can see it, just depends on how the world economies develop, internet penetration, population and the use of the internet in general. I'm keeping my fingers crossed..
Yeah, that was my thought. Then I started to do some math, based on assumptions that some of us were using around the buyout. At present there is a large number of LLLL.coms in "soft" hands - this doesn't mean that the owners don't work for a living, it means that they do not intend to hold for the long term. So there are a lot of domains either on the market or that could be pried lose with a small price rise. This obscures the long term value of the domains.
Back in the day, our (absent but fondly remembered) friend Italian Dragon, myself, and others were speculating that the natural value or "target price" (underlying price after the dust settles) of LLLL.coms should be about 1/26 the value of a comparable LLL.com (there are 26 times as many LLLLs). If we use that metric with a minimum price today for LLLs of $3,500 we get a target for LLLL.coms of $135.
I doubt many would disagree that the internet, and thus the demand for domains, is rising. The mobile internet is probably about to explode in the same way that the PC internet did, and television did before that. Short domains are well suited to small keyboards. So I assumed a 20% per year growth in internet usage.
At 20% per year it took a little over eleven years to reach $1000 from $135, with the magic of compounded returns!
A 10% growth rate is much less than we are having in this recession (remember we are talking about internet use, not domain prices directly) 10% would take something like three times longer (not going to do that math), and I would not try to guess what the internet will look like that far out.
Snoop is going to hate this. I will place the caveats that there are many optimistic assumptions in this guesstimate, including the recovery and health of the world economy. Renewal fees have to be factored in. And I certainly would not recommend that anyone spend money without doing a whole lot more research. But I do not think these assumptions are unreasonable, and that is where Snoop and I disagree. But at least I am consistent.
--- another caveat - I have a bunch of LLLL.coms, although few, if any, that I would consider minimum value.
Increase in the number of websites on the internet:
2004 : 12.1%
2005 : 17.1%
2006 : 31.6%
2007 : 48.7%
2008 : 29.9%
source: techcrunchies.com/how-fast-is-internet-growing/