.tv When do the scales tip to sellers?

[TheBulldog]

So here is a question......

Obviously, right now it is more of buyers market in TV then a sellers market. The aftermarket here is static, with even great names listed at $750 not even getting a response. So painfully, it is fairly obvious that the sweet price right now is Free to $50.
Everything over that is struggling unless someone has a specific use for the name, and no one is really buying for holding purposes.

Yes, there are exceptions, feel free to say so, but only if you can also state what you are buying and that you are willing to pay decent prices.....but I digress.

So when do the tables turn? When, for those of us here with larger portfolios of good names (good is defined by your view, not mine) when do you see the market changing and offers to start coming in.

When do you see suddenly 10 new people a day asking for appraisals on dwarfsonparade.tv and the rest of us quietly rolling our eyes and telling them to go to the aftermarket.

When do you see the market becoming profitable.

(Please do not discuss Verisign and premium pricing, assume it stays as is)

 

[mckennaronnie]

i voted 12 Months Bulldog as in my opinions 2008 is going to be a Big year for .tv with many sites getting media attention and the extension as a whole being more aware to everyday internet users.
Over the past few Months sales have slowed down but i feel that it because most of the people who already have faith in .tv bought up the domains they want/need for their developments in early 2007 and will not sell for a long period.

For the market to start moving again then there needs to be new blood and i believe the new blood will come as a result of the many 100's of top notch .tv sites that have been launched recently and will be launched in 2008.
Think of all the quality Geo's & generic .tv's that were bought over 2007, many of these will be developed over 2008 and domains like those will make a massive impact and help the extensions as a whole become more recognizable.

Personally i dont care too much about aftermarket prices as i stopped buying a wee while ago. I have a feeling that in early 2008 there will be a panic with some of the .tv domainers who bought too many domains to hold and reg fees are killing but for those who can sit tight and make it through to 2009 then i am sure we will be rewarded with domains that have went up by at least 25%. :imho:

Thats all just my opinions but hey what do i know!
Im only a 25 year old Scotsman who is full of painkillers so dont trust me!!

Cheers,

Ronnie

 

[equity78]

Good thread topic Bulldog IMO

I think the market right now probably is for great names, and even good names are being pushed aside right now. Part of that maybe seasonality, with the holidays people are focused on more important IMO things than buying .tv domains. They probably figure the names will still be available after the holidays and maybe a seller will have a blowout sale to pay for some of their holiday shopping.

This year has been the best year ever for Aftermarket .tv sales. I think people are now realizing I have enough time to develop, create a business model and implement it.

I think there is a small pool of buyers here that are either tapped out or have no need for anymore .tv. There are certainly more sellers here who thought .tv was a "next big thing" and need to move inventory on domains they have no development plan.

Certain areas work because they are sold out even in the premium space. Meaning Geo.tv has garnered a lot of sales because the premiums were bought too. But if you are in an area where the category leader is available for $500 a year that may not be a big deal for an end user to spend.

I think the definition of good is a broad one, I think people have more distinct focus in this extension than in other extensions. Meaning some only want premium .tv, others will never buy one, some only think tv/entertainment are worthwhile, others like the funky names and see that as a natural and elevates the extension as a fun,new wave extension. No one wants their .net or .org to be funky. Others only want one word generics. Some think what works in .com can work in .tv like hyphens or three word keyword rich domains, other believe that is a waste of money. So I think GOOD gets defined much more broadly in .tv

A pick up could take place in the new year with new money and new domain investors looking at .tv. Again IMO

 

[domainacrobat]

Well said equity, your post definatly conveys my exact thoughts. I started domaining in late 04 and have seen the "holiday " effect occur each time. There will always be the exceptions like geos and select names that do sell throughout the later part of the year, but for the most part, investors have spent their money by now and are focusing on holiday spending. As equity said most domianers are counting on the fact that most of the names they wanted will be there in January. Also I have noticed that once taxes are filed and the new year is under way, most investors have a new budget worked out for themselves and are spend happy. I would vote for 1.5 months if it were an option!

 

[smashfactory]

yeah i thought the last 2 years around holiday time was considered "slow" in general- i myself would be buying more, but hey, i got 3 kids and christmas is in a few weeks

 

[TheBulldog]

Thanks for comments all, much appreciated.

Smash, hope you got your Pat Pat Rocket.

 

[MicroGuy]

Good topic idea Bulldog!

I voted for 3+ years because that was my intention coming into the .TV market. I was fortunate to have entered the game when Godaddy was running the $12.99 special. My idea was to buy 500 domains at $12.99 and then let 25% drop once I determined which names were valuable. It was sheer luck that my last batch of registrations was completed a couple of days before Godaddy ended their sale.

In my opinion, seasonality can only account for part of the slump in this market. Any domain with traffic can be sold for low $xxx regardless of the extension. My current strategy is to take a domain, get a little traffic (we'll need another discussion on how to do this), document the traffic for the buyer, and then sell. Repeat this process for three to five years while buying into seasonal lows and selling into seasonal highs. At the same time improving the portfolio waiting for better days.

It’s going to take some major players promoting a .TV site before the market really takes off. The recent move by CURRENT.TV to change gears and abandon the extension is a major blow. IMO

When the day comes that you can mention .TV to a new friend or family member and they don't look at you like, "what in the heck are you talking about", that's the day the market will become a seller's market.

 

[DomainMayhem.com]

I, myself, am waiting for analog broadcasts to end in favor of digital (at least in the states). This is scheduled to happen about a year from now. I think that that will be the tipping point. It won't be a huge seller's market at that point, but it will be more a market for sellers than buyers. When people are forced to update their equipment, I think a fair share will just go ahead and buy a monitor that will allow for internet and tv. Now, not everyone will do so, of course not. Some will be on cable, some will just buy an adapter, etc. However, the 18-30 something crowd will most likely just take the plunge. Then they will discover that, yes, there is a plethora of content to be viewed online, as well as what is broadcast (most in that age range have already discovered this). And there are those of us that are planning on using the new services that are popping up offering content that has been broadcast already, for free viewing.

dotTV has quite a future ahead of itself!

 

[MillersCrossing]

I dont believe it is seasonal at all - look at the huge sales .mobi has made over the last few days...music.mobi over 600k games over 400k a total of over 3 million in 5 days on Sedo auction....

I think its quiet because alot of buyers and sellers of .tv are big believers, but not necessarily big on cash.

As a few people have already mentioned those with cash are now spending it on development and cant spare too much change - the names I am looking to buy I want to buy because of the market we are in which represents oppurtunity - the problem is that most people are not selling into the buyers market - preferring to hold - so my buy and flip strategy is failing miserably!!!!

So its back to the fact that alot of the players big and small are throwing themselves into their development of some big names, I can tell you right now I am putting in around 14 hours a day on a supersonic name, which will get media attention next year ....Along with a lot of other people on this forum, if they are prepared to go all the way development wise and not half hearted cheap assed shit.....then that will do wonders for .TV...

National TV if you go to his site has huge plans for development, so huge in fact its mind boggling, but we can ride the coattails of his successs or we can make our own luck..........

One piece of really good news is that I was speaking with a potential client about a deal on my site. Never in a million years did I expect this person with the website that they have would turn round and tell me, by the way nice name you are developing , I am developing my first .TV site next year for my business...that gave me a rush and a half!!

To everyone, a happy Chanukah, merry Christmas and a happy prosperous new year.

 

[*AllThings.tv*]

Coincidently, I wrote a blog titled, "Could 2008 be the breakout year for .tv?".

Rather than rewriting what I wrote, here is the main excerpt that pertains to this thread:

2008 could be the breakout year for dot tv, but lets review the facts:

* - The Dot tv extension has been around since early 2000 and did not receive universal adoption when it was released primarily due to the premium pricing that exists today;
* - In May of 2007, Rosenblatt’s Demand Media relaunched the dot tv extension and launched the Channel Me project after acquiring the rights to market the extension several monthers earlier;
* - Dot tv names continue to sell in the secondary market and some have verified sales prices in the $x,xxx - $xx,xxx range; several private sales involving .tv names have taken place;
* - News.tv (one of the highest priced .tv names) was recently sold according to Demand Media;
* - Dot tv continues to attract investment away from .com since it is a viable alternative particularly for video and interactive sites; and
* - Major dot tv sites currently in the public view include TNT.tv and Hollywood.tv, and hundreds of newly developed dot tv sites came into existence during this last year.

While 2007 failed to create the ‘bang’ that many domainers hoped for, 2008 could very well wrap up to be a breakout year if the positive trends and momentum continue and especially if more media companies give the extension exposure by using and promoting dot tv sites on television. Make no mistake, dot tv faces two major challenges. First, other extensions cost less. Second, the premium pricing policies are said to be very confusing, which discourages all domainers from fully embracing the extension and what it offers.

Still, its the extension’s brandability that continues to drive large and small businesses to adopt non-premium dot tv names as their homes on the web. This trend is probably the number one thing that dot tv has going for it, which makes this a game more one of time than anything else. Domainers like myself should feel lucky to get to go along for the ride.

2008 should be even more exciting than 2007 since we can expect:

* - More positive news from domainers, large companies, and Demand Media’s announcements and further development of the extension;
* - Incredible deals on some great low-priced premium dot tv names as investors begin to refocus their priorities from domaining to development (START SAVING NOW! The bargains are starting to appear, like USC.tv selling for $30, and you can expect more to begin showing up in Q1 of 08);
* - The Internet, the number of domainers, and the number of end-users will grow not shrink.

Hold on tight, I have a feeling its going to be a rollercoaster of a year!

 

[htmlindex]

Personally, I see it will take at least another 2-3 years for the .tv market to really start heating up. We are seeing more end users taking up the .tv extention now but many are still unaware of the extention and the benefits to their business. Also a lot of domainers are not investing in .tv yet so there is a small minority of people that have seen the potential so far. I see the market gaining a lot more momentum around 2010.

 

[RPK]

I voted 18-24 months I guess because I may have a different definition on what is a "sellers" market. I believe the .tv market will continue to grow and we will see some great sales in 2008 and more use of the extension, but if we are talking about the "tipping point" where we see good activity on a day by day process, then I think that will happen in 18 - 24 months.

The main thing that .com has over .tv is type in traffic. While I do believe we will see type in traffic for .tv rising, I don't believe that will have a major effect for a long time

The secret to .tv's success, IMO, is monetization. If me.tv had focused on being a monetization tool (not saying they should have) then there would be a lot more activity aroung this extension.

Once you start seeing/hearing about domainers/entrepreneurs/webmasters etc... making a few hundred to a few thousand dollars a month from their .tv site, then the market for great .tv names will take off.