but it it really comes down to end-users and they are just not interested in names like this, mainly because 99% have never heard of them and dont know they exist
This
idea is true (although "99%" is pure speculation), however it's the domain name market which dictates that .com is "king", and in many other aspects it doesn't matter - such as the technical side, all domain names work the same, and can be branded and marketed the same. And if people saw more newgTLDs on bigger name sites, then many would have no problem using them.
I think a newgTLD which is meaningful and matches their brand or company name is better than a .com which has weak resemblance to their cause.
For example:
London.Plumbers
OR
SmartPlumbersLondon.com
The first is a perfect domain name (current asset value aside), whereas the second is icky. Trouble is, the strength of the .com is
unnatural in some ways, as "SmartPlumbersLondon.com" could easily sell to the right end user for $x,xxx, whereas the shorter and more perfect "London.Plumbers"
currently is a large gamble as to anyone buying it. And this is dictated by the marketplace, not common sense or which is the better looking and shorter name.
As time goes on they will have to
naturally become more popular, because even as it stands now anyone wanting a decent and relevant .com for their business is likely not going to get it unless they pay a decent sum. This will only get harder and so people will have no choice but to turn to something else.
I'm talking about small to medium size businesses etc, not larger ones who want the asset and can afford it.
As happens with a lot of trends, more people will use newgTLD as a cheaper alternative and get an ideal match domain name. Popularity often brings exponential popularity growth, and so newgTLDs will become ok to have and use, and thus ok to buy and sell.
I don't think this will weaken the .com, I think it will strengthen it by making it more exclusive, and sale prices increase due to limited availability.
All that said, all TLDs are different beasts to oneanother, and cannot always be compared the same. For example "London.Builders" is great, "Bingo.Builders" is crap. Whereas .com is generic and so can carry any quality keywords and remain valuable.
So I don't think one single or a few specific newgTLDs will simply "take off", only certain newgTLDs, and where the domain name and TLD match.
Of course this is my
theory and I have no facts, only ideas based on similar scenarios in markets, business, and human nature.