What most people do not understand is that you simply cannot create an gtld for every extension, there are many unique keywords, and brands that cannot warrant the the creation of a new gtld. This will keep .com on the radar, and in the norm. Large companies are not dumb, they will not lose eyeballs of their customers to their .com's, they may play with their gtld's for marketing, much like o.co, which did not work.
The general public, does not live, or breathe domains, nor care for them. The small business that repairs electronics, and has it's .com, isn't going to run out and get a gtld for $10K, or even $40. It is a big world, and people have big ideas of hitting it big, of getting in on the second gold rush, well news flash, this time, everything has been researched over with a fine tooth comb. You have all the generics held for auction by the registries, from the way it is now you are at 4x annual reg fee of a .com. I have no idea which way this goes, but I see no major shift for the next few years. I can just run with the facts, and see there are some people out there spending $10K on new gtld's on week 1, when there are 1000 more gtld's coming to water down their investments. Yes, there are guys that own tens of thousands of names against the .com, can you imagine the sheer number of domains that can be created against 1000 gtld's.
From my own point of view, I ask myself what if .mobi .info, .biz, .us were launching with the current bunch, people would be bouncing off walls to try, and register them. Well we already have an indication from a marketplace perspective how that investment has turned out. Best of luck to all on both sides of the dot.