The Falling US Dollar

[billinchina]

The US Dollar has been falling in comparison with other currencies around the globe for quite a while now. Congratulations Canada, our dollars are the same now (actually yours are worth more than US dollars).

Things are starting to make sense. Rising stock market at record highs. Rising oil prices at record highs. Rising real estate at record highs (well, except for a recent dip). Dollar goes down, prices go up and records are set.

I see purchasing power being eroded as inflation skyrockets for certain items.

So, if things continue, be very excited about rising PPC and rising domain values. However, since dollars will probably be worth less, perhaps you will be no better off.

Just my observations...

 

[billinchina]

Thanks GOODKARMACO,

I think there should probably be a different thread about diversifying into metal. I think that good domains are going to keep increasing in terms of US Dollars as well as PPC rates. Then, take the cash generated from PPC and sales, and reinvest it or diversify it globally (including in the US).

I personally am not that interested in gold or silver. What I think I'd like to do in order to diversify my stockpile of US cash (which I need to remain liquid over the next few months for spending purposes) is to pick 7 or 8 currencies and put a portion of cash into money market funds for each of them. I am hesitant to invest cash in gold, silver, platinum, stocks (US or international) because they are risky. I could perhaps consider moving some of my long term assets into those vehicles.

Does anyone have any recommendations of an easy way for someone living in the US to spread money into several different money market funds or CDs in other currencies while maintaining a low conversion fee?

 

[pergamon]

Thanks GOODKARMACO,

I think there should probably be a different thread about diversifying into metal. I think that good domains are going to keep increasing in terms of US Dollars as well as PPC rates. Then, take the cash generated from PPC and sales, and reinvest it or diversify it globally (including in the US).

I personally am not that interested in gold or silver. What I think I'd like to do in order to diversify my stockpile of US cash (which I need to remain liquid over the next few months for spending purposes) is to pick 7 or 8 currencies and put a portion of cash into money market funds for each of them. I am hesitant to invest cash in gold, silver, platinum, stocks (US or international) because they are risky. I could perhaps consider moving some of my long term assets into those vehicles.

Does anyone have any recommendations of an easy way for someone living in the US to spread money into several different money market funds or CDs in other currencies while maintaining a low conversion fee?

I would go for 30% gold, 20% silver both in an ETF fund(as liquid as can be)
10% in the Aussie, 10% Yen and 10% Euro. The rest keep in $ or if you wanna go full house 20% in Swiss Francs.
That is what I'd do.

By any means NO £££

 

[SLL]

Diversifying is Always a Good Idea

Bill, I do have an excellent international mutual fund in my IRA that has performed very well over the last 17 years that I can recommend, but it looks like you are interested in more short-term diversification.
Due to the transaction costs, I am not sure if there are short-term foreign currency money market funds. Must say I have never looked into it, but would be curious to know what you find out.

Best of Luck, Steve L.

how many domainers would like to trade a name for four ounces of gold?

My hand is up.

Gold and silver are constantly being traded for goods. All that is needed is to talk to someone who is trying to get out of paper money and into the metal for a trade to take place. Everyday cars, land, houses, boats, airplanes and just about everything else are being bought with gold or sliver.

It may be difficult to buy a burger with it, but finding a farmer to sell you his cow would be very easy if you had a handful of silver dollars or a nice nugget of gold.

From what I know it will fall further and soon the Canadian dollar will be worth $1.10, the Euro will rise to $1.50. If that comes to be then you and I will witness inflation and hardtimes for the middle class.


For a short course on the predictament the world is in this may be of interest

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/oct042007.html

How many domainers would sell a domain for $3,000?
Hmmm...same difference...what is your point?

Gold is constantly being traded for cars, land, houses, boats etc.? I can see drug traffickers doing this, but it certainly is not the norm and would raise a few eyebrows as to why they cannot pay in dollars/euros/yuan etc.

Farmers are selling cattle for silver and gold?

No one can presume to know what the Euro or Canadian dollar will do in the short-term. I can tell you this, if they do rise to those levels it will not have a significant effect on U.S. inflation.

Ahh...the clouds suddenly part...and I see that you are following the advice of a site/company that sells silver and gold. Doesn't that make you hesitate in the least bit as to what their motive is?

 

[pergamon]

Wanna make an old fashioned bet for the honor?

1 ounce of Gold at today's closing price vs your mutual funds todays closing price

Updated once a week until years end.

DEBT vs. MONEY

 

[goodkarmaco]

Ha ha Pergamon,

you are pricesless, well not really becuase if he does take up your bet and backs his loyalty to paper money and the ponzai scheme you will be richer! Like you say he is heavliy invested in status qou and like the majority will follow this rock to the oceans floor.

I have only recently been watching kitco for a very short time. My observations are based on a lifetime of boom and bust cycles caused by the money supply of the U.S. government. This government is making a big mess and it is only beginning to show, more will become apparent as everything unravels.

Its easy to see what is happening if you have lived a while. I suppose if I had money heavily invested in paper right now I would want to believe everything is all right too.

Placing a bet, since you have so much knowledge of what is money, is not even betting for you as winning should be a no brainer with all the loyalty you have for America and its money supply and your understanding of it.

One thing before I quit wasting my time on this subject as your loyalty to the greenback will show its value in due course.You make fun that I make a refrence to the dollars drop due in part to the Irag war war.

What in the hell is so funny about our government being hell bent on paying for a trumped up war with money borrowed thru debt?. Money that is going to drag down the whole world because of the amount of that debt. It does not take a rocket scientist or an economist to understand the dollar is sliding, and the reason is overspending.

That big drag on our dollar is directly related to the war spending for the Irag war. I did not say it was only cause for the dollars demise, I am saying it is a big factor though.

Your love realtionship to the dollar represents everything to you Imo as you are an economist. If you took a different stance than you may have conflicts about your belief system. That may be more devastating than loosing your money placing a bet about your beliefs Imo. So it is understandable if you do not want to back up your loyalty claims with a bet.

If the housing markets are in danger of slowing or if they have been slowing and the fed PROPS it up with a quick fix of bailouts or low interest loans so the industry does not collapse, in your mind everything is ok. Yes, short term those fixes help, but then here we go again as more and more money thrown at the problem creates a bigger problem.

I am not trying to change anything except for the few who know something is not right, those few I am saying my personal opinion. I am not an economist, this is just my take.

My take is Pergamon will win the prize!.

 

[pergamon]

Ha ha Pergamon,

you are pricesless, well not really becuase if he does take up your bet and backs his loyalty to paper money and the ponzai scheme you will be richer! Like you say he is heavliy invested in status qou and like the majority will follow this rock to the oceans floor.

I have only recently been watching kitco for a very short time. My observations are based on a lifetime of boom and bust cycles caused by the money supply of the U.S. government. This government is making a big mess and it is only beginning to show, more will become apparent as everything unravels.

Its easy to see what is happening if you have lived a while. I suppose if I had money heavily invested in paper right now I would want to believe everything is all right too.

Placing a bet, since you have so much knowledge of what is money, is not even betting for you as winning should be a no brainer with all the loyalty you have for America and its money supply and your understanding of it.

One thing before I quit wasting my time on this subject as your loyalty to the greenback will show its value in due course.You make fun that I make a refrence to the dollars drop due in part to the Irag war war.

What in the hell is so funny about our government being hell bent on paying for a trumped up war with money borrowed thru debt?. Money that is going to drag down the whole world because of the amount of that debt. It does not take a rocket scientist or an economist to understand the dollar is sliding, and the reason is overspending.

That big drag on our dollar is directly related to the war spending for the Irag war. I did not say it was only cause for the dollars demise, I am saying it is a big factor though.

Your love realtionship to the dollar represents everything to you Imo as you are an economist. If you took a different stance than you may have conflicts about your belief system. That may be more devastating than loosing your money placing a bet about your beliefs Imo. So it is understandable if you do not want to back up your loyalty claims with a bet.

If the housing markets are in danger of slowing or if they have been slowing and the fed PROPS it up with a quick fix of bailouts or low interest loans so the industry does not collapse, in your mind everything is ok. Yes, short term those fixes help, but then here we go again as more and more money thrown at the problem creates a bigger problem.

I am not trying to change anything except for the few who know something is not right, those few I am saying my personal opinion. I am not an economist, this is just my take.

My take is Pergamon will win the prize!.

Don't get me wrong. I never said a fiat currency is evil. I do tell you that we are on party train with destination Grand Canyon. Yeah, it's lots of fun while we're on, however the path we walk is dead end. Too much bad decisions have been made in the past.
There is realy nothing much doctor Ben can do then help this drug(debt) addict economy but to give the patients more cocaine(cheap money).

So it is wise these days to convert a little portion of your paper money (debt) into the ever shining gold (wealth).

With some luck America will batter the storm, however that will need some real brave politicians. It's sad America the land of the free soon to become the land of the slaves. Working to pay of their huge debt.

Good fortune to those who can see what's behind the hill.

Just for the fun... this is a pic I recently came across from Zimbabwe where inflation is running at 3000% a year.
The pic is from this summer. This is what you need to pay for a simple meal at a restaurant.

If we couldn't export our $$$ this would be scenes in the USA. That fact that all those TRILLIONS of $$$ are somewhere stuck in Russia, China, Europe,... is one of the factors that keeps this ship afloat, this is something that those poor Zimbabweans can't do.

 

[seeker]

Wanna make an old fashioned bet for the honor?

1 ounce of Gold at today's closing price vs your mutual funds todays closing price

Updated once a week until years end.

DEBT vs. MONEY

I'll take the bet with both of you.

1 domain, I caught/regged today.
In 1 year (or less), I am willing to bet you, that in % terms, I will make more money than the % difference in gold and/or the difference in exchange rates for 'paper' money...
in other words my ROI will be higher than the % ROI in Gold or the exchange rate.

 

[pergamon]

I'll take the bet with both of you.

1 domain, I caught/regged today.
In 1 year (or less), I am willing to bet you, that in % terms, I will make more money than the % difference in gold and/or the difference in exchange rates for 'paper' money...
in other words my ROI will be higher than the % ROI in Gold or the exchange rate.

Sure I'll take your bet too but the king of the US economy would be better comparing as I don't know what currencies you are refering too (some currencies may outperform gold perhaps)

If you are willing to go 1oz gold closing price NY vs S&P500 closing price today we have a bet!

SP&500: 1,552.58
1oz gold: 732.50

today's closing prices

 

[seeker]

Sure I'll take your bet too but the king of the US economy would be better comparing as I don't know what currencies you are refering too (some currencies may outperform gold perhaps)

If you are will to go 1oz gold closing price NY vs S&P500 closing price today we have a bet!

ok, I guess you didnt get the " ", as in the thread is getting boring/too serious, at least to me.
I was just trying to add some humor, while at the same time, I am definately backing my word.

I am willing to bet that my ROI in a domains (*strictly* in % terms) will outperform the ROI in Gold, or USD, or Euros.

Fair enough?

P.S.
you do realize that a domain can easily get well over 500% ROI in a year, right?

 

[pergamon]

ok, I guess you didnt get the " ", as in the thread is getting boring/too serious, at least to me.
I was just trying to add some humor, while at the same time, I am definately backing my word.

I am willing to bet that my ROI in a domains (*strictly* in % terms) will outperform the ROI in Gold, or USD, or Euros.

Fair enough?

P.S.
you do realize that a domain can easily get well over 500% ROI in a year, right?

You should go work with the FED, they are always seeking money magicians like you. The FED is much like Hollywood these days. It's the package that counts. If it looks good it must be good.
Good luck but I think I'll pass on that bet.

 

[seeker]

You should go work with the FED, they are always seeking money magicians like you. The FED is much like Hollywood these days. It's the package that counts. If it looks good it must be good.
Good luck but I think I'll pass on that bet.

Pretty intense words for a Newbie.

Money magicians?
This is a domain forum.

Now, it looks to me like you placed a bet, and backed out of it pretty fast.

Nothing magical about that...
your true colors have shined.

 

[pergamon]

Pretty intense words for a Newbie.

Money magicians?
This is a domain forum.

Now, it looks to me like you placed a bet, and backed out of it pretty fast.

Nothing magical about that...
your true colors have shined.

I was trying to be as funny as you, no harsh words intended.

I don't know what the increase of a domain price has to do with comparing the state of the US economy vs gold, because that is what this thread is about.

after all this is the "break room"

And my color? Wish I knew

 

[seeker]

LOL
I was keeping up with the humor.

The intention beeing that the ROI of domains is based on $ value, not on gold.
I am therefore linking domains to the value of the USD vs Gold prices, and I am saying that I can make more (in strict % terms) that If I were to invest in gold, or diamonds, or sheep, or cattle..etc..etc...

Let's all take a break now.
Darn, I thought we had a bet

 

[goodkarmaco]

I hardly see how a bet on domains value is related to if the American dollar will tank or not, or if bullion will be all that.

I do think for the little money I have to invest that domaining will return the most for me. Afterall if the dollar keeps going down or by some miracle goes up it can only be by a certain amount. Maybe 10 to 100% and that is crazy thinking. Domains on the other hand may never sell, or if the owner picked just the right one profits can be enormous.

I recently sold a name that I hand registered for $6.95 and sold it a few months later for a clear $1,000. profit after a person contacted me thru the who is.

Gold and silver can multiply a persons wealth and may at times jump in price by ten, twenty or thirty times. Nothing Imo though compares to having that right domain that can sell for thousands times its cost. Witness flowers.mobi, selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars only months after hand registering it.

I think it is good to see your point as domains have so much potential, although few are good at getting those gems that bring the big bucks.


I am not sure but I think it was Rick Swartz (sp) that said, "nothing will compare to domains as a commodity for profits". Although I don't think domains are a commodity, I do think he is right that domain ownership can reap the biggest rewards for investment purposes.



I suppose I could buy some bullion and park it for a while, but I think of all those domains I could register or own and that is where I put the cash. That is my future, come hell or high water. Whatever happens to the money supply I think I will come out better by putting my money in my domain business.

Saying that, I am not just throwing money at it, I am working very hard to define what names are best suited for me, for the future and revenue growth.

 

[SLL]

Wanna make an old fashioned bet for the honor?

1 ounce of Gold at today's closing price vs your mutual funds todays closing price

Updated once a week until years end.

DEBT vs. MONEY

I would love to make a bet on gold vs. the dollar (why mutual funds?).

I would only do this though if I had an assurance of being paid in a year's time, which would seem an impossibility.

Since you state that money=debt, you should be tracking gold's performance to the dollar. You can use the dollar vs. canada or australia.

Right now I see the dollar/canadian dollar rate on google at .9926 (just type in "dollar to canadian dollar" in Google), or dollar/australian dollar is 1.12.

The asking spot price for one ounce of gold on Kitco.com is $738.90.

Or you can wait until the end of the day to finalize prices. Update the increase or decrease in value each week.

Remember at the end of the one-year period you need to add 4-5% to the value of the dollar for the interest I would have earned over the one-year period.

Post the cumulative returns every week (on the weekend) in this thread for the year.

As I said before, gold could continue to increase in value simply due to the enormous demand of China, which no one can predict. But it has had a substantial run already and the weakening of the dollar has nothing to do with its economy or standing in the world.

 

[kemjika11]

......... Easily explained by the fact it has become "cheaper" to travel to the USA as the Euro strengthens versus the $USD.

I think this means if the USD remains low, tourism in US will get a bigger boost, which is not a bad thing for that sector.

its interesting how we've been trying to pressure countries like sudan and iran financially, and as they move towards other currencies, the $ keeps getting devalued coincidentally.

 

[pergamon]

I would love to make a bet on gold vs. the dollar (why mutual funds?).

I would only do this though if I had an assurance of being paid in a year's time, which would seem an impossibility.

Since you state that money=debt, you should be tracking gold's performance to the dollar. You can use the dollar vs. canada or australia.

Right now I see the dollar/canadian dollar rate on google at .9926 (just type in "dollar to canadian dollar" in Google), or dollar/australian dollar is 1.12.

The asking spot price for one ounce of gold on Kitco.com is $738.90.

Or you can wait until the end of the day to finalize prices. Update the increase or decrease in value each week.

Remember at the end of the one-year period you need to add 4-5% to the value of the dollar for the interest I would have earned over the one-year period.

Post the cumulative returns every week (on the weekend) in this thread for the year.

As I said before, gold could continue to increase in value simply due to the enormous demand of China, which no one can predict. But it has had a substantial run already and the weakening of the dollar has nothing to do with its economy or standing in the world.

Why should I bet against the $/aussie or canadian ratio?? What has this to do with betting against the US Dollar? I can't know what the Canadian or Australian bank will do over the next year? It's irreleveant. I do however have an opinion on what the FED will do over the next months.
I wanna bet against the US economy and in particular against its flagship, the S&P500. The FED controls the money supply in the US so I'll let you pick one of the American stocke xchanges.

And it's a bet for the honor, not for the money

As I said before, gold could continue to increase in value simply due to the enormous demand of China, which no one can predict. But it has had a substantial run already and the weakening of the dollar has nothing to do with its economy or standing in the world.[/QUOTE]

Gold has risen over the past years 300% in $ terms and 100% in euro terms.
Does this need any more comment?

We simply don't know who has been accumulating gold in the past years, they certainly won't tell us. We shall know when the fat lady has sung.

 

[goodkarmaco]

This would be very fun to watch.

I think pegging the bet agianst the U.S. dollar only is the right thing to do as that is what we are debating here.

 

[pergamon]

This would be very fun to watch.

I think pegging the bet agianst the U.S. dollar only is the right thing to do as that is what we are debating here.

The true effect of the monetary policy by the FED and the paper boys will be reflected in the S&P500.
Well I'm betting against myself then. I will use yesterday's closing prices because I already mentioned them.

SP&500: 1,552.58
1oz gold: 732.50

And will update them every saturday with % changes.

 

[SLL]

The true effect of the monetary policy by the FED and the paper boys will be reflected in the S&P500.
Well I'm betting against myself then. I will use yesterday's closing prices because I already mentioned them.

SP&500: 1,552.58
1oz gold: 732.50

And will update them every saturday with % changes.

You have stated often on this thread that money=debt, and that the reason the dollar has dropped worldwide is because the FED/Treasury has been printing too many dollars. So let's compare the dollar to other worldwide currencies. Pick the yen if you prefer.

I have consistently stated that I feel the dollar is oversold, or put another way, is undervalued.

The name of this thread is "The Fall of the US Dollar".

I have also stated many times that if the market expected inflation to be increasing out of control (and rates to shoot up in response) the S&P 500 would not be rising (it hit an all-time high yesterday).
There are other reasons that explain the dollar's fall, but I believe that the speculators have pushed the dollar far into oversold territory.

We have barely touched on the stock market in our discussions, and you have already inferred that the rise in the stock market is being manipulated by the "easy money" of the United States.

If you are going to insist that this comparison be done with gold vs. the S&P 500, then I am afraid no one will care what the outcome is, including your ally in these discussions GoodKarmaCo.

But again, I will state that in any comparison of gold to dollars, at the end of the year period you must increase the value of the dollar by 4-5% for the interest I would receive for holding/saving dollars for one year. This is the only true way to compare the two, as I would receive no interest for holding gold.