Pleased to present Public Beta for automatic Appraisals

[estibot.com]

I released EstiBot.com for public beta!

Go ahead and have your domains appraised-

Thanks so much for your help and support:
Verbster
ToryC103
DomainSpade
NameClerk.com
Skinny
Showbiz
Dagersh
Megasonic
Dkh
Like5
Rck
Chulium
Rawandy

Cheers!
Josh

 

[estibot.com]

ARRRGH! I realise where I went wrong now...I expected the tool to create domains from a block of text, I didn't realise there had to be domains already in there!

That's right... it's meant to help the user to isolate the domains in any given block of text, for instance you could paste a page from namebio or dnjournal, or from a namepros "for sale" thread, and estibot will list the domains that appear in the pages. I've found it useful for domain research.

But - there's an idea for another tool, creating domains from a block of text. How would you like it to function? I might just be inspired to churn out some PHP for that

Josh

 

[simonj]

But - there's an idea for another tool, creating domains from a block of text. How would you like it to function? I might just be inspired to churn out some PHP for that

Josh

Ok, how about this.... You paste an article from a buisness site (for instance), and the tool analyses the text and sees that the phrase "mortgage rates" appears a number of times. So the the output would be MortgageRates.com. You could list all the potential domains in order of frequency. I think that would be quite a handy tool and not too hard to do.

Simon

 

[estibot.com]

Not a bad idea at all! I'll start thinking about it.

 

[bondjpf]

Hi, i've been using estibot for some time and I think it's a great tool to have but i think it still has serious problems with .mobi names.
I own several .mobi names and the diference for the .com name is enormous.
I think some kind of change must be done but I don't know what must change on your algo.
Why are they so low?
Thanks.

HomePhotos.com usd 32,000
HomePhotos.mobi usd 40

FamilyS*x.com usd 390,000
FamilyS*x.mobi usd 1,500

MarketScreener.com usd 9,300
MarketScreener.mobi usd 0

PassedOut.com usd 110,000
PassedOut.mobi usd 400

IpodSkins.com usd 99,000
IpodSkins.mobi usd 110

NannyJobs.com usd 28,000
NannyJobs.mobi usd 130

 

[estibot.com]

Hi, i've been using estibot for some time and I think it's a great tool to have but i think it still has serious problems with .mobi names.
I own several .mobi names and the diference for the .com name is enormous.
I think some kind of change must be done but I don't know what must change on your algo.
Why are they so low?

Hi bondjpf,

.mobi valuations are hard because the market is young and there is a lot of variation in sales prices for similar domains. That's why EstiBot cannot reach quite the similar predictive value for .mobi as for .com.

However, I did do a .mobi algorithm update after the recent big .mobi auctions, and on a ballpark level now EstiBot is doing pretty well with .mobis, too.

I personally think that the appraisals for your domains seem to be about right given the current market. However, .mobi sure has potential for growth so you may see a value increase if indeed the .mobi tld succeeds.

Inspired by your post, I just checked the latest 25 sales of .mobi domains, and here's what EstiBot came up with, compared to the actual sales values:

The first number is the EstiBot valuation, the second number is the actual sale price. Note that EstiBot did not know of the sale price at the time of testing, but appraised these domains purely by keyword analysis.

verzeichnisse.mobi 260 $81
railtravel.mobi 100 $102
konsument.mobi 400 $81
h0tel.mobi 0 $70
oneliner.mobi 40 $60
mortgager.mobi 20 $95
youporn.mobi 0 $1,150
oneliners.mobi 320 $60
luchthavens.mobi 20 $95
phonebooth.mobi 60 $60
lastminutevacation.mobi 0 $70
flugtickets.mobi 160 $330
discounttravel.mobi 600 $2,200
instaloan.mobi 50 $108
investment.mobi 3,400 $12,000
beso.mobi 560 $900
loancalculations.mobi 20 $70
investing.mobi 5,600 $2,111
lastminutetravel.mobi 60 $260
princess.mobi 5600 $950
scores.mobi 3,000 $33,000
airport.mobi 7,300 $4,000
backtaxes.mobi 180 $60
hoteldeals.mobi 810 $2,250
lesbian.mobi 100,000 $7,500

To me this looks quite good. There are, as always, some fluctuations and some individual domains may be quite a bit off, that's inevitable, but all in all I think it's in the right ballpark for the most part.

Thanks-
Josh

On that note, here is more .mobi stuff:

I dared to publish the EstiBot predictions for the premium SEDO .mobi auction - here then are the results!

You can view my original post here:
http://www.namepros.com/2275933-post183.html

Here are the EstiBot predictions compared to the final sale prices for the October .mobi premium auction. The EstiBot valuations were done with the Bulk Tool, which gives a slightly different valuation compared to the single domain tool on the main page.

The total sum that EstiBot predicted for the domains that were sold:
840,414

The actual sum of the sale prices in the SEDO auction:
864,250

Here is the breakdown. The Blue number is the EstiBot prediction, and the Red number is the actual closing auction sale price:

discounttravel.mobi 600 - 2,200
investment.mobi 3,400 - 12,000
loancalculations.mobi 20 - 70
beso.mobi 560 - 900
lastminutetravel.mobi 60 - 260
investing.mobi 5,600 - 2,111
scores.mobi 3,000 - 33,000
princess.mobi 5,600 - 950
backtaxes.mobi 180 - 60
airport.mobi 7,300 - 4,000
hoteldeals.mobi 810 - 2,250
shaking.mobi 650 - 170
lesbian.mobi 100,000 - 7,500
bookmarks.mobi 5,300 - 900
vacation.mobi 21,000 - 8,600
updater.mobi 250 - 100
smile.mobi 7,400 - 1,500
gps.mobi 7,500 - 9,500
discountflights.mobi 400 - 1,200
dvd-r.mobi 0 - 95
lesbians.mobi 130,000 - 9,500
storm.mobi 8,900 - 1,500
flight.mobi 8,600 - 14,000
3dm.mobi 70 - 350
love.mobi 44,000 - 12,750
gas.mobi 4,500 - 9,100
smiley.mobi 5,900 - 1,550
drivingdirections.mobi 2,300 - 410
bacio.mobi 220 - 450
date.mobi 9,700 - 40,000
loancalculation.mobi 30 - 60
bookmark.mobi 2,800 - 1,050
pretty.mobi 8,100 - 1,300
citymaps.mobi 1,800 - 4,200
stadtplan.mobi 1,800 - 858
scape.mobi 670 - 217
airports.mobi 4,500 - 3,650
flug.mobi 1,800 - 3,100
jogodevideo.mobi 0 - 70
resorts.mobi 4,000 - 7,550
taxi.mobi 6,000 - 75,111
golfclubs.mobi 5,100 - 3,100
new.mobi 4,000 - 4,350
apartmentz.mobi 0 - 80
beautiful.mobi 10,000 - 1,425
viajes.mobi 2,800 - 8,302
citiesonline.mobi 0 - 122
trip.mobi 7,200 - 5,100
direcciones.mobi 470 - 300
spa.mobi 3,300 - 4,266
ringertones.mobi 0 - 80
beauty.mobi 7,900 - 10,756
humor.mobi 13,000 - 12,500
internetads.mobi 0 - 960
holiday.mobi 9,800 - 14,500
rentalcar.mobi 1,800 - 4,900
gay.mobi 27,000 - 18,000
chansons.mobi 1,200 - 350
mapa.mobi 2,900 - 2,750
translate.mobi 7,300 - 8,100
lover.mobi 4,400 - 1,200
holidays.mobi 14,000 - 22,500
vacationrentals.mobi 630 - 1,320
dating.mobi 14,000 - 73,000
donaciones.mobi 80 - 70
personals.mobi 16,000 - 5,825
student.mobi 9,700 - 14,000
kiss.mobi 15,000 - 23,777
buy.mobi 3,900 - 32,500
place.mobi 6,000 - 1,200
byareacode.mobi 0 - 70
gold.mobi 14,000 - 4,151
girl.mobi 47,000 - 11,501
bwm.mobi 280 - 420
roadmap.mobi 640 - 1,550
office.mobi 6,200 - 8,851
golfcourses.mobi 380 - 3,750
map.mobi 7,300 - 11,870
installer.mobi 1,500 - 320
homes.mobi 9,700 - 53,700
adult.mobi 59,000 - 30,000
vacationpackages.mobi 1,100 - 2,250
urbanmaps.mobi 0 - 80
bride.mobi 5,900 - 2,250
taxicabs.mobi 350 - 4,100
fantasy.mobi 8,600 - 1,700
lasvegashotels.mobi 110 - 1,900
camp.mobi 6,500 - 1,600
smileyface.mobi 480 - 161
celibacy.mobi 410 - 9
flights.mobi 51,000 - 22,500
plane.mobi 5,300 - 1,500
limo.mobi 4,600 - 12,756
parking.mobi 2,900 - 15,500
motels.mobi 7,000 - 47,000
hotel.mobi 9,200 - 46,000
camera.mobi 12,000 - 5,450

My conclusion:
The overall predictive value of EstiBot for .mobi is very good. Inevitably, there are some individual appraisals that are quite a bit off, but not that many. The EstiBot valuations give a good relative indication of domain value in the .mobi tld.

From this result I conclude that the predictive value of EstiBot appraisals, even in the hard-to-appraise .mobi TLD, is so far beyond the capacity of any other appraisal system, that at this point I don't have to worry about the competition. I am constantly looking at ways to make the algorithm better, but even as it is now, it's certainly by far the most accurate on the Web.

I say this even though I am personally constantly critical of my own system and I do realize it has its shortcomings. It's not perfect, but if anyone can point out another system that comes even close, let's see some data then

Cheers!
Josh

 

[bondjpf]

Hi Josh,
Thanks for your answer.
I understand that the market data is very low for .mobi .
Does your data only comes from the latest .mobi auctions or also from the reported end user data sales from namepros, mobility, etc?
Regards,
Pedro

 

[estibot.com]

Pedro, the data comes practcally from all public sources, via namebio.com

thanks-
Josh

 

[bondjpf]

Hi Josh,
After your reply I did a few tests on namebio using this http://mobility mobi/showthread.php?t=4 as base and I found out that a lot of names are not included on namebio.
How does namebio gets it's sales data?
Just trying to help in getting your application better than it is now(wich is great, btw).
Regards,
Pedro

 

[estibot.com]

This is in response to the following comment in the "post domain sales here" thread:
http://www.namepros.com/2313504-post1242.html

I humbly wish people would at least quickly read what it says on the bulk tool page itself:

This tool is in test phase - please do not make purchase or sale decisions based on these numbers!

The single and bulk appraisal tools employ different algorithms; therefore the valuations may be different.

I have not managed to synchronize the single and bulk tool, because the bulk tool (in early testing) has very demanding speed&efficiency requirements and has to use fewer variables for valuation.

If you have cars.com or house.com, you don't need EstiBot. Also, the difference between the bulk and single tool appraisal is immaterial, because both the bulk tool and the single tool give a proper valuation, if you'll just take a look at the user's guide:

EstiBot valuation $100,000 and above: Congratulations - if you own this domain name, you probably don't need EstiBot to tell you that this is an immensely valuable domain name and could be worth hundreds of thousands, or even millions to the right buyer.

I've found that hardly anybody bothers to read anything I write on the pages - an automatic tool is just that, just a tool. Everywhere on the EstiBot pages I emphasize that the appraisal is just a pointer, and requires heavy interpretation by the user. The keyword data is displayed to aid the user in the process of his/her own final appraisal.

 

[estibot.com]

edit

 

[Morph]

Pretty disappointing you would recommend people to 1&1 - I suppose a good percentage of your users are "newbies"..1&1 would be a bad start for them

Cheers
Tom

 

[estibot.com]

OK Tom, I have no personal experience with them at all. I wanted to display a wide selection so everyone could click their own favorite registrar directly. I have no particular desire to promote 1&1, just wanted the user to have as many options as possible.

Is there something I should know about 1&1? I would not want to mislead anyone. I'm quite willing to remove that link if it is deemed undesirable by the community.

Thanks Tom
Josh

 

[Morph]

First thread I dug up http://www.namepros.com/domain-name...-com-hater-aaaaccckk.html?highlight=oneandone

And there is a lot more where that came from.
There are plenty of better registrars than 1&1

All the best
Tom

 

[estibot.com]

OK, I did some reading. Check it out now, better, no?


Josh

 

[Morph]

Good man :tu:

 

[estibot.com]

New tool! Instantly convert your IDN Domain names from Unicode to Punycode and vice versa. No more wondering about the xn-buaa-fje.com domain names! Stay on top of upcoming IDN auctions with the EstiBot IDN Converter:

http://estibot.com/idn-converter.php

Enjoy!
Josh

 

[0lgi]

Hello Josh !

You have done really a great job! This program is simply awesome and I see a brilliant future for it !

Hope you find ways to improve it more so we can have the best appraisal program

Cheers

Olgi

 

[estibot.com]

Thanks so much Olgi!

 

[AcornDomains.co.uk]

Useful tool, thanks for sharing..

 

[estibot.com]

Thanks. I hope to make a bulk version of it soon. I really need one for myself, and I'll be sure to share that, too.

My main goal right now is to get a better keyword parser. Any ideas would be appreciated. Lack of a good keyword parser is the main hindrance to getting the bulk appraisal tool to reach true functionality.

 

[metronome]

hi
after using estibot for quite some while, I should say it is actually one of the best tools out there.
tho it is not perfect, it gives some idea which domain has future and which has no future.

ya sometimes it gives you overgenerous appraisal, but let's say before you buy a domain name and if you use estibot.com, put the name of .com domain inside, and get "reg free" as the result of appraisal, you might need to rethink.

I hope that estibot will give better and more accurate appraisal in the future. of course I can't wait for the better bulk appraisal estibot

 

[domainer67]

Fantastic job on Estibot.com!

Great tool to help you compare domain keyword values (singular vs plural for example) as well as get a good feel of the price range value of the name

I use it every day, keep up the great work

 

[estibot.com]

This from another thread, where the user asked why EstiBot gave a $8,000 valuation for his domain MoreRecent.com, even though it's obviously not worth that.

Here's my explanation:

In my research I've found that even though some keyword combinations have no search popularity (ovt/wt), and very little other stats, the fact that they are a popular phrase on the Internet (MSN/Google frequency) correlates significantly with the corresponding domain's potential value.

Many of such domains are worth nothing, such as maybe this one. But to categorically appraise such domains as worth nothing would yield poor appraisal reliability for most such domains.

To rephrase: If estibot gave reg fee appraisals to all domains that have no search popularity, it would produce too many reg fee appraisals for domains that are actually worth more. The overall reliability would suffer.

This is why I built a special routine for those domains that have no search popularity. The keyword value is compared against the known sales prices of other such domains that had no search popularity either. The valuation is then calculated from that correlation.

Most of the time this works reasonably well. However, there are certain phrases that are very frequent, such as this one "more recent", but obviously have no commercial value as domains. These end up getting over-appraised due to the above reasons.

I have built several error-reduction filters to avoid this from happening, and to detect words that increase the probability of over-valuation. Nevertheless, some domains slip through all filters, and this is one of them.

Of course, the auto-appraisal is only ever a ballpark indication at best, and as said above, and also as clearly said on the estibot site, "if it seems too good to be true, then that's probably just what it is"

Here's a quote from http://estibot.com/guide.html
Quote:-Is this a realistic appraisal? If not, look at your domain name and ask yourself why EstiBot may be appraising it wrong. Chances are that you'll figure it out. If you think "my domain can't possibly be worth that" or "my domain is absolutely certainly worth more than that", then you are probably (but not necessarily) right.

 

[estibot.com]

Pleased to present....


EstiBot Type-In Traffic Checker


Enter up to 1,500 domain names, and EstiBot will find and display the domains that have Overture or Wordtracker search popularity with Extension.

Enjoy!

http://estibot.com/type-in-traffic.php

 

[deleted984054565403]

Pleased to present....


EstiBot Type-In Traffic Checker


Enter up to 1,500 domain names, and EstiBot will find and display the domains that have Overture or Wordtracker search popularity with Extension.

Enjoy!

http://estibot.com/type-in-traffic.php

Cool! Thanks, Josh.