new gtlds nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90%

[betthelot]

nGTLDs plateauing at 27-29million. Growth RATE has reduced by 90% . 4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017.
Lots of free-minimum drops to come, rather than plateauing at 30 million could be the peak and down hill from here.
Clear winner .com and note .click over 60% of sites scanned were spam or harmful to your computer's health, this is the last refugee for many of these strings, even for Frank's vision.

 

[boker]

Can you post some of that or links.

Namebio has some data, but you have no option to select jan-feb 2016, so you will have to do this step by step. Also , sold.domains have some 4500 sales, but you have to spend time to select sales for every month.

 

[MarkedMarket]

It's the trend I'm looking at. It's forecasting given the current trend the peak is close. This is also demonstrated by the fact most of the early released strings, now 3 years old, have declined in numbers. .guru .london .berlin not all but the vast majority and all those that didn't do the freeminmum offer.
It's all up hill from here for the nGTLDs the momentum is slowing dramatically. This must tell ICANN the world doesn't need another 1000 strings.I think investors will vote with their feet on the second round.

I appreciate you looking at trends (which I think makes a lot of sense), but as New.Life already pointed out, each new GTLD has a natural limit to the amount of words that make sense with that specific extension/string. In that regard you can't really compare the numbers. The new GTLDs together have more registrations than .net, and about 20% of the current .com registrations. Is that good/bad in 3 years?

As Traveler points out, something could happen that can change the public opinion dramatically. Suppose Facebook would change its site into Face.book, or something similar.

Personally I would not mind either way. The only thing I mainly wanted to point out is that you can show any trend with statistics, and also that prediction is very difficult, especially when it's about the future...

 

[boker]

They're quoting year on year stats as against betthelot who said in his opening post "4million regged in first quarter 2016 but less than 300,000 in first two months of 2017." That is a startling statistic and one that all domainers - especially newbies - should take note of before they invest a lot of money in new extensions.

As a newbie, you don't have the knowledge and experience to spend your 1-2k you want to invest in domains to buy valuable com. But with the same amounts, some of our namepros colleagues have bought a ngtld for 26$ and sold for 10k a .shop domain and other sold a guru ngtl for 5k, and a few other sales like this. So, at this stage sometimes you get better ROI investing in ngtld's. The idea is to buy just what makes sense and knowing the market and end users who could buy them.

 

[NigelD]

This thread was started on the crucial fact that so early in their development the ngtlds may be plateauing. If that is true it could prove fatal to a lot of the new extensions. As I said in a previous post - many years ago I got caught up in the frenzy of a .mobi auction - thank goodness we didn't win that one. A lot of this hype reminds me of that time. Yes they'll be some nice sales here and there - but whether there will be sustainable growth and future interest to invest serious money in the ngtlds is another matter. All I am saying is be careful - you could spend a lot of 26$ and get very little in return.

 

[TRY]

Thanks for posting this valuable information. This is apple to orange to pear to banana comparison, all mixed together, but who cares anyway

In case some of you do not wish to hold your good quality new gTLD domains anymore (as you are shocked by this article), I am always interested in good quality ones..just shoot me a PM, and I will offer you re-seller, but fair price! But only quality domains please, not the garbage ones!
Many Thanks.

The thing is my gut tells me 99% of the people have the leftovers and the 1% are holding the best names. If you asked people to submit their quality new g's to you, I'd wager you wouldn't pay reg fee for most of their submissions.

P.s. I stick with what is already established like .com's and cctlds. Everything else is too speculative for me at this time,..IMO.

 

[LeDomain]

Flowers.mobi was sold for $235,000 and we know what happened

A sale here or there with ngtlds and by the way , most of those are made by registry to end user.
Those are not going to be enough to sustain a gtld

 

[dordomai]

I would say listen to Rick Schwartz:

Going thru my .xxx domains and other non .com extensions. Quickly learning the most value is taking total loss on 2017 taxes. #dumbdomains

I think gTLD’s missed boat on their so-called Premium Domains. Imagine if .Mobi waited 3 years to sell theirs. Game over! #domains #noise

I love how they say gTLD’s are for startups! Really?? Probaly the best and fastest way to put yourself out of business. Just DUMB! #Domains

So, will it take another 3 years for domain INVESTORS to realize it is not an investment? Buying depreciating assets not smart! #domains

 

[LeDomain]

"Rick said:
I love how they say gTLD’s are for startups! Really?? Probaly the best and fastest way to put yourself out of business. Just DUMB! #Domains"

This is the best of all. As a startup you want an extension that will support your growth, you want to ask what the extension can do for you. You get cute and creative at your own peril, when you could go with the obvious.

 

[betthelot]

Announced today: http://magazine.store was sold to publisher Merideth for $250,000. And apparently a .games was sold last month for $183,000.

Not quiet true in the world of post truth, you conveniently forget to mention two very important points
1. magazine.store; was not cash and a discount was giving on its usage, as Meredith the purchaser clarified '“Some part of the cash component was discounted against the active usage of the domain and the placement that Meredith has given .store on the website.”. We also dont know the terms of .game.
Magazine.store sold for 250,000 USD but only received 5,000 USD and the difference is to be stated as undisclosed discount against usage. Thereby allowing me Radix to hype the value of .store to the gullible.
2. Both were sold by the registry again scant consolation to domainers, as the registries are leaving very little meat on the bone for the reseller market.

 

[boker]

I would say listen to Rick Schwartz:

When he invested everything in .com it will be crazy for him to say that com is loosing value and ngtld's are a good investment. The problem it's that a lot of peoples believe 100% what his saying, without thinking if he has any interest or no. It's like I buy a big farm of 1000 pigs and next to me somebody will open a farm of cow's. I will have to be crazy to say that the cow meat it could be better than pig meat. At the end, nobody can say 100% what will happen, but as always in business, you can follow your instinct and knowledge, if you count on what other peoples are saying, you will not have any chance of success.

 

[Registry Services]

Both were sold by the registry again scant consolation to domainers, as the registries are leaving very little meat on the bone for the reseller market

I can see why the registries would want a slice of the premium pie, but by pricing out domain investors, they have (1) created animosity in the domain community and (2) lost the buzz they would gain from the domain community getting involved

They need a better balance.

 

[Registry Services]

When he invested everything in .com it will be crazy for him to say that com is loosing value and ngtld's are a good investment.

I think there is a lot of this going on in the domain community - with 129M names in dot-COM - a vast proportion of which are parked and a lot of which is investor money - there is a lot of vested interest in talking up the value of dot-COM and talking down the value of anything else.

The nGTLD registries are on the opposite side of the same coin.

Hence the domain community seems to be sharply divided into pro-nGTLD and anti-nGTLD

 

[jmcc]

ICANN forecasted that 30million would be Registered by end of 2015

ICANN seems to have done the usual thing and got some clueless random economist to make a prediction about the domain name business despite not having a clue about the business. Very few people were surprised when the prediction was massively wrong.

Brands may still do well if they own the .com but no consolation to domainers.

Most brand TLDs have few (beyond the NIC) registrations. That claim that brand TLDs will be the saviour of new gTLDs is another bit of rubbish pushed by people who don't understand TLDs or new gTLDs.

What worries me is when I see people with no data and no experience in analysing TLD trends making claims about TLD statistics. The .COM had one of the worst deletion spikes for years but people moved on largely oblivious to the adjustment. The new gTLDs are much smaller so any adjustment or drop of speculative registrations is more visible. Some new gTLDs that had Chinese bubble exposure have already taken hits this year. Some new gTLDs are badly stuffed with free or heavily discounted domains. But there are some that are doing OK. Now the domainer version of "OK" and the domain industry version of "OK" are two different things. Most well run registries consider usage and renewals to be the main metrics of how a TLD is doing. They are not into zone stuffing and tend to treat discounting with the caution it deserves rather than making it a cornerstone of their business model.

The mistake that a lot of domainers and domainer blogs make is in taking the new gTLDs as a single TLD. They are not. They form a very complex set of TLDs often pitched at different markets. And most importantly from an analysis point of view, they have a variety of launch dates and thus some are more mature than others.

Regards...jmcc

 

[dordomai]

Not quiet true in the world of post truth, you conveniently forget to mention two very important points
1. magazine.store; was not cash and a discount was giving on its usage, as Meredith the purchaser clarified '“Some part of the cash component was discounted against the active usage of the domain and the placement that Meredith has given .store on the website.”. We also dont know the terms of .game.
Magazine.store sold for 250,000 USD but only received 5,000 USD and the difference is to be stated as undisclosed discount against usage. Thereby allowing me Radix to hype the value of .store to the gullible.
.

wow. then newbies will read about the sale and think they can sell a name like this for 250k.

In reality this thing sold for 5k.

 

[MarkedMarket]

wow. then newbies will read about the sale and think they can sell a name like this for 250k.

In reality this thing sold for 5k.

It did not. When quoting my post, Betthelot conveniently removed the source that I provided to my post (http://domainnamewire.com/2017/03/01/rightside-sold-single-domain-name-games-183000/).

The source says that it wasn't a $250,000 cash sale and that "some part of the cash component was discounted against the active usage of the domain and the placement that Meredith has given .store on the website."

The 5K was completely made up by Betthelot and probably meant as an example (even though it seems to suggest otherwise).

 

[NigelD]

really good point there dordomai

this whole thing has been built on sand. I really didn't like receiving this email from a major registrar a couple of years back. They registered a .xyz domain in our name without our authority or instruction and expected us to email them to cancel it. I have starred out the geographical area.

"As a valued customer you are on the top of our minds.

We want to show you how much we appreciate your loyalty by rewarding you with complimentary access to a 1-year registration of a .XYZ domain, one of the hottest new domain extensions. .XYZ domains are proving to have broad appeal and also be extremely memorable. In addition to your complimentary domain, you'll also receive Professional Email and Private Registration for your .XYZ domain - free of charge.

Your Complimentary Domain
xxxxxxxxxxHolidays.XYZ (pending availability)

If you choose not to keep this domain no action is needed and you will not be charged any fees in the future. Should you decide to keep the domain after your complementary first year, simply renew it like any other domain in your account.

Since we have a limited number of complimentary domains available for this program, if you would rather not receive your .XYZ domain please let us know by clicking here by July 7, 2014."

No wonder .xyz have over 6.5m of the 28m registrations. The stats on this page are interesting. I've never looked at this site before. But does this back up what betthelot was saying. Shows graph peaking on 28 Feb at 28,060,100 registrations and now dropping for 2 days and showing 1.2m upcoming deletes. You'd expect the 6.5m .xyz registrations to drop sharply after all those free gimmicks and domains foisted on customers.

 

[betthelot]

wow. then newbies will read about the sale and think they can sell a name like this for 250k.

In reality this thing sold for 5k.

The point I was making in reality no one knows what it sold for AND THIS IS DELIBERATELY DONE, faking a big sale that even DN Journal reported. To give the impression to investors, domainers and staff that all is great in the new gTLD world.

Why not say what the discounted price was? because then you would smell the BS.

 

[MarkedMarket]

The point I was making in reality no one knows what it sold for AND THIS IS DELIBERATELY DONE, faking a big sale that even DN Journal reported. To give the impression to investors, domainers and staff that all is great in the new gTLD world.

Why not say what the discounted price was? because then you would smell the BS.

I fully agree with this. Either the registry shouldn't disclose anything, or they should mention the real price (and can add that they have also received additional benefits on top of that for which they can't disclose the value). Only in that way it becomes possible to properly assess the value of domain names in general and of this one in specific.

 

[LeDomain]

Sounds like paid informercials .

 

[NigelD]

you get the picture of increasingly desperate ngtld registries thinking of ways of shoring up their extension. So we have inflated prices reported in a bid to suck more newbies into parting with their money. I'm very cynical when I see any large ngtld sale reported. You don't know what is going on behind the scenes. They need big ticket sales and they need registration numbers - even if they give them away.

Big thanks to betthelot for starting this thread

 

[betthelot]

Betthelot conveniently removed the source that I provided to my post

only because you already quoted the source.
Though I believe we have come to the same conclusion that you can take nothing from the press release, only a sense of being in a room full of smoke and mirrors.

 

[GoKaizen]

@jmcc

http://www.hosterstats.com/xyz-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/club-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/link-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/guru-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/email-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/tips-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/today-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/company-website-usage-survey.php

http://www.hosterstats.com/photography-website-usage-survey.php

 

[garptrader]

If a major accounting firm were tasked to audit the reported sales of new TLDs by the registries over the last few years, I seriously doubt they would issue an unqualified opinion. However, it is not only new TLDs that are subject to hyped sales reports. Yet how many newbies get drawn into this industry based on reported sales?

 

[NigelD]

Agree with that - but with these ngtlds it's the registries that are often making these hyped (and sometimes unsubstantiated) sales reports. It wouldn't be allowed if you were working in the financial markets. These registries are under pressure, the new gtlds are plateauing, lapse ratios are high, average returns per domain are falling, they're struggling under a pile of debt, selling off assets, new strings are being launched, diluting any prospect of growth from a falling customer base, and the share price is under pressue. So they announce a mega sale, which blows a bit of air into this deflating balloon, for a day or two reg numbers go up - but they soon fall back again. That's the way I see it.

 

[wwwweb]

Flowers.mobi was sold for $235,000 and we know what happened

A sale here or there with ngtlds and by the way , most of those are made by registry to end user.
Those are not going to be enough to sustain a gtld

Flowers.Mobi, was sold for $200K, then bought by a domain investor for $10K, who got a margin call on FB stock at $16, and ended up selling it to 1-800-Flowers for $5K, when they declined to bid higher in the original $200K auction, now that is a complete story. In the end the end user got the domain, while everyone else lost money.