"Minimum price of $200 for any 4 letter .com in early 2009".

[johntv]

In my opinion, it's just common sense to predict an absolute minumum price of $200 for any 4 letter .com in early 2009, I will explain why.

The minimum price for any 2 letter .com is at least $100,000 and for 3 letter .coms it's around $3,500, a factor of around 28 times less. This makes totally sense as there are 26 times less 2 letter .coms (26 x 26) compared to 3 letters (26 x 26 x 26).

What happens when 4 letter .coms are all gone?

First, a lot will be dropped and regged again, although after some time (around 1 year or even less?) the dropping will decrease dramatically as people start to recognise their value.

Let's assume all 4 letter .coms are gone by the end of this year and let's also assume it will take another year before dropping of 4 letter .coms will not be very common anymore.

Furthermore suppose a 3 letter .com is worth a minimum of $5,000 in January 2009, I predict a 4 letter .com should be worth around 26 times less at that time.

So that makes me predict:

The absolute minimum price of any 4 letter .com in January 2009 is $200.

Does this all makes sense? Or is there something wrong with my calculations?
I have regged many 4 letter .coms as I strongly believe it does make sense!

 

[ginge133]

While there are 17,576 3 letter .coms available there is 456,976 4 letter .coms available. I think you would have to take the rarity factor into account aswell as there is a huge number of 4 letter.coms available, so no, I do not think they will be $200 minimum by 2009.

 

[htmlindex]

There are an absolute huge amount of LLLL.com possibilities out there. I don't see them being bought out by the year 2009 so I can't see that they will hit a minimum price of $200

 

[Alex]

I think LLLL.com 's will not be available for registration by the end of this year, and I think there will be a huge price difference between good LLLL.com's and bad ones.
I don't see much value in the future for QZHJ.com, but I think that for a decent LLLL.com the price will be about $200.

They are not that rare, and it is unlikely possible that any random LLLL could stand for something.

- Alex

 

[italiandragon]

People did not think that 3 chars .com would be worth it regging, today no one sells for less than $100.

People are often wrong.

I think they will be worth it $200 even before 2009.

 

[johntv]

I don't see much value in the future for QZHJ.com

Thanks for all comments.
Alex, I agree it's hard to imagine qzhj.com being worth $200 in early 2009, although some time ago I thought any NLL/LLN.com or other L and N combination were absolutely worthless. In my opinion any 4 letter .com is a better alternative for end users.

 

[Alex]

Yes John, I am the one who actively invests in LLLL.com's. I think that the tendency is that their value will just increase, but differently for premium and pronounceable LLLL.com's (those will go well in the $x.xxx range, and differently for the non-pronounceable ugly LLLL.com's.
I do not know their exact value, I don't want to predict, but I do think that low $xxx is reasonable.

 

[AdoptableDomains]

I think you have to devalue 4L's even more than 3L's. My reasoning is that most 3L's are used for acronyms of company domains and organizations. I think there are significantly fewer companies with 4 word names to use the acronyms for. However, this does give a hint at the more valuable 4L's. Many companies that couldn't get a 3L, might consider a 4L with "I", "C", or "A" as the last character for Inc, Corp., or Association. Just as an example, if IBM weren't able to get that 3L, they might consider IBMc for International Business Machines Corporation. Obviously a huge company could afford the 3L, but smaller companies that fit that example might not. Once you get past the obvious examples of adding those suffixed and maybe "T" for "The" as a prefix, I think the market for them dwindles dramatically.

Also, there there are exponentially more bad combos with 4 letters like QZXK that are virtually unusable as acronyms.

However, picked carefully, I think most non-bad letter 4L's will be somewhere above reg fee where they haven't been over the last couple years. Mostly due to 3L biz, us, and info's all being taken. This could change somewhat if ICANN allows a few more gTLD's in 2008 though, opening more 3L opportunities in non-ccTLD domains.

 

[tristanperry]

There are an absolute huge amount of LLLL.com possibilities out there. I don't see them being bought out by the year 2009 so I can't see that they will hit a minimum price of $200

They'll all be gone by the end of this year? (Source: dyyo.com - the best LLLL.com tracker site out there). I cannot see why you think it'll be at leadst another 2 year's time before they are all gone?

 

[sheaujye]

Meaningless LLLL.com for $200 by 2009? and there's more than 1.5million 4-letter .com domains in total instead of 50k 3-letter.com domain.

I don't think so, but it's hard to say if we are in 201X, just not before 2010

 

[tristanperry]

Meaningless LLLL.com for $200 by 2009? and there's more than 1.5million 4-letter .com domains in total instead of 50k 3-letter.com domain.

I don't think so, but it's hard to say if we are in 201X, just not before 2010

26*26*26*26 = 456,976, not 1.5 million?

Anywhoo, I think that the minimum wholesale will be around $100 in 2010 - although that's just at a guess.

 

[Alex]

I don't know how you calculated that there are 1.5 million LLLL.com's.
Maybe 4character.com's. But I do not think that random 4chars will be worth something great in the future.

Alex

Edit: Yes Tristan, you did that calculation right before. Thanks

Meaningless LLLL.com for $200 by 2009? and there's more than 1.5million 4-letter .com domains in total instead of 50k 3-letter.com domain.

I don't think so, but it's hard to say if we are in 201X, just not before 2010

 

[johntv]

Meaningless LLLL.com for $200 by 2009? and there's more than 1.5million 4-letter .com domains in total instead of 50k 3-letter.com domain.

Actually there are 17,576 3 letter and 456,976 4 letter .com's.

 

[GreenGambler]

I think they will all be regged by the end of this year.. Heck maybe in a few months.. (fingers crossed). I do agree that they will continue to drop and be picked up for a lot longer though, maybe another year... possibly two.

Yes there are alot more LLLL.com combos than LLL.com combos. But you also have to consider that there are probably alot more Domainers online today than there were 3 years ago.. And even more in 2 more years.. More domainers means a higher demand when the supply is locked.. at 456,976

I can see the average LLLL.com going for $50-$100 by next summer.. Much... Much more for the pronouncables and even more for quality hard to find letters.

Happy Investing!!!

 

[Source]

A $200 minimum by 2009 for a readable, brandable, 4-letter .com is far more likely.

 

[gazzip]

I think there are significantly fewer companies with 4 word names to use the acronyms for.

I would think so too, thats why LLL.com are "rare" and "valuable" - While I don't doubt there will be some great LLLL.coms sales I just don't see this happening for the vast majority of them (I think comparing them to what happened to LL and LLL's is just pure hype )

Sorry, JMO - Good luck


.

 

[VURG]

In my opinion, it is not common sense to assume that LLLL.com will be worth minimum $200 in 2 years from now.

Why

Total cost is 3 years reg fee ~$20/domain (bulk prices)

ROI would be 1000%

If I were convinced that I could get 1000% ROI, I would be getting a very big loan.

Usually, telling people that they can make 1000% ROI in 2 years is considered overselling because usually those who make the predictions are wrong. It's possible that they could get that high but there is a lot of things that can happen in 2 years.

I think that they will make a good ROI in 2 years but 1000% is way too high. There are too many other alternative domain investing strategies. I can tell you that I seriously doubt that I would pay $200 for QJFH.com in 2 years.

 

[.X.]

I think you have to devalue 4L's even more than 3L's. My reasoning is that most 3L's are used for acronyms of company domains and organizations. I think there are significantly fewer companies with 4 word names to use the acronyms for. However, this does give a hint at the more valuable 4L's. Many companies that couldn't get a 3L, might consider a 4L with "I", "C", or "A" as the last character for Inc, Corp., or Association. Just as an example, if IBM weren't able to get that 3L, they might consider IBMc for International Business Machines Corporation. Obviously a huge company could afford the 3L, but smaller companies that fit that example might not. Once you get past the obvious examples of adding those suffixed and maybe "T" for "The" as a prefix, I think the market for them dwindles dramatically.

Also, there there are exponentially more bad combos with 4 letters like QZXK that are virtually unusable as acronyms.

However, picked carefully, I think most non-bad letter 4L's will be somewhere above reg fee where they haven't been over the last couple years. Mostly due to 3L biz, us, and info's all being taken. This could change somewhat if ICANN allows a few more gTLD's in 2008 though, opening more 3L opportunities in non-ccTLD domains.

I agree, and to further say, I think investing in 5 letter brandable names is a better long term investment, why? when you get into acronyms, LLL will always lead the market, 4 letter acronyms can become a bit tedious to a company or end-user, what is left of 4L.coms is mostly trash imo, they are a big seller from domainer to domainer, just as 3 char.coms are, i don't think they will ever prosper into a big end-user maket though, generics such as love.com will always be sought after by end-users, yyss.com won't imo

 

[dhscott]

I just fell of my chair laughing, holding my ribs in pain.

 

[tzsxc]

I agree, and to further say, I think investing in 5 letter brandable names is a better long term investment, why? when you get into acronyms, LLL will always lead the market, 4 letter acronyms can become a bit tedious to a company or end-user, what is left of 4L.coms is mostly trash imo, they are a big seller from domainer to domainer, just as 3 char.coms are, i don't think they will ever prosper into a big end-user maket though, generics such as love.com will always be sought after by end-users, yyss.com won't imo

Both of you make very good points. The achilles heel of 4L.coms is the fact that they are harder to make as an acronym vs. 3L.com. But to say that 5 letter brandables are a better long term investment is a fallacy IMO, there are tons of them available and in that case why not use 6L.com or 7L.com? What is the difference between say "lakun or lakuno"? One interesting thing that should give everyone some faith in 4L.com is that Nasdaq symbols are 4L. That means they are at the cusp of ppl's memory limit and that maybe the big x-factor.

my 2c.